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Belmont At The Big A Picks & Predictions — June 21, 2026

Sunday, June 21, 20269 racesBelmont At The Big A

Happy Father's Day from the Big A. Belmont Park's temporary home at Aqueduct is hosting a 9-race Sunday card on June 21, and the weather is cooperating nicely — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 78°F mean turf conditions should be holding firm with no weather-related chaos to factor in.

The card leans heavily on the grass, with five of nine races run on turf. That sets up some interesting pace scenarios and class angles throughout the afternoon. We've got everything from maiden claimers and maiden special weights to allowance optional claiming and a starter allowance — a nice mix of conditions that rewards sharp handicapping at every level of the card.

TrackWiz has crunched the numbers on all nine races. The first three are available to every reader, free of charge. Races 4 through 9 are unlocked for subscribers — and trust us, there's some real value buried in that back half of the card.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:10 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

The morning-line favorite gets challenged by a higher-rated closer in this maiden claimer on the turf — the 6-furlong distance sets up a potential pace duel that could benefit players willing to take a stand against the chalk.

win3Two DucksML 3/1

Two Ducks earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 — a meaningful edge over the morning-line favorite Oligarch — and the 3/1 morning line represents genuine value for a horse that profiles as the best on paper. Trainer Carlos F. Martin puts him in there with Kendrick Carmouche, a savvy veteran who knows how to save ground on the turf. Matching Hafu's avg speed figure of 54 while owning the field's best composite rating, Two Ducks looks like the play to beat in a wide-open debut field.

place7OligarchML 6/5

Oligarch is the 6/5 morning-line favorite for a reason — Javier Castellano doesn't take maiden-claimer mounts lightly, and the barn of John S. Pregman, Jr. clearly thinks this one is ready. The slight speed figure dip (53 vs. the 54 cluster) is worth noting, but Castellano's tactical intelligence on a short turf sprint could overcome any raw number gap.

show1HafuML 4/1

Hafu opens at 4/1 for Linda Rice, one of the sharpest trainers in the New York barn, and posts an avg speed of 54 to match the top of the field. Ricardo Santana, Jr. gets the call, giving this longshot-priced runner a legitimate elite jockey edge — a good angle to sprinkle into the exacta and trifecta.

Race 2

5:38 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 3/8 mi · Turf

A deep allowance optional claiming field goes long on the turf at 1 3/8 miles — stamina will matter here, and the horse with the best staying profile and the highest rating doesn't come in as the favorite, which is exactly where value hides.

win5Protective CustodyML 7/2

Protective Custody owns the race's top TrackWiz rating at 86.35 and opens at a juicy 7/2 on the morning line — well behind the 7/5 Sailaway in the betting, creating a prime value scenario. Trainer Claude R. McGaughey III is one of the sport's elite conditioners with grass routers, and a 20% career win rate for this horse in a tough allowance company says the talent is real. Jose Lezcano is a savvy pick for a taxing 1 3/8-mile trip, and we expect this pair to be sitting in striking position turning for home.

place1Sol d'OroML 9/2

Sol d'Oro brings a 33% career win rate into this spot, which is the best conversion rate in the field, and that kind of consistency is hard to ignore on the turf. Kendrick Carmouche gets the mount for Joe Sharp, and this horse profiles as the type who fires every time — a steady performer who can hit the board even when beaten by a peak effort.

show4SnipsnippitysnipML 5/1

Snipsnippitysnip sits at 5/1 on the morning line and carries a 71.08 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field — while sharing the Brendan P. Walsh barn with Massarat. Walsh frequently doubles up and wins with supporting entries, and a 20% win rate for this runner suggests board relevance at a price worth having in trifectas.

Race 3

6:06 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The top TrackWiz rating is sitting at 7/2 with a 9% win rate, while the morning-line favorite at 2/1 owns a 21% career win clip — this one sets up as a battle between raw ratings and a proven winner, making pace and positioning absolutely critical on the one-mile dirt.

win7Miss LaoML 7/2

Miss Lao tops the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and draws Reylu Gutierrez, who is sharp around the Big A oval. Despite a 9% career win rate that might give some bettors pause, the rating gap between her and the rest of the field is significant — she outscores the second-best runner by over 10 points. At 7/2, there's enough meat on the bone here for a confident win play.

place1Ah Ca IraML 2/1

Ah Ca Ira is the 2/1 morning-line favorite for a reason — a 21% career win rate is the best in the field and Christopher Elliott rides for the capable Linda K. Dixon barn. She's got a 76.13 rating and her avg speed figure of 53 is competitive for the claiming distance, making her a natural underneath pick even if Miss Lao has the overall edge.

show4My First LoveML 3/1

My First Love has the best avg speed figure in the field at 54 and Dylan Davis takes the mount for Michael Miceli, a combination that tends to deliver. A 16% win rate is right in range for a claiming runner, and her 71.57 rating profiles as a stalker type who can pick up the pieces if the two top choices set heated fractions.

The free portion of today's card opens with a pair of turf races before pivoting to the dirt. In Race 1, Two Ducks tops our ratings at 87.08 in a maiden claiming sprint on the grass — a solid morning line of 3/1 makes this one genuinely playable, not just a chalk play you have to squeeze for value. Race 2 stretches out to 1 3/8 miles on turf, a true test of stamina in an allowance optional claiming field where Protective Custody earns an 86.35 TrackWiz rating at 7/2 on the morning line. Distance horses with turf pedigree are going to thrive in that one. Race 3 brings us back to dirt for a one-mile claimer, where Miss Lao matches Protective Custody's 86.35 rating and also opens at 7/2 — two picks at the same price and the same rating is a rare alignment that doesn't go unnoticed.

One thread connecting these early races: the turf should be running fairly true today given the mild, dry conditions, so don't overthink surface biases. Class and recent form are your best guides in these opener races.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:36 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Big-name trainers Brad Cox and Chad Brown send out runners at solid morning-line prices, but our TrackWiz analysis tilts toward a different contender — a maiden special weight on the turf is rarely straightforward, and the heavy chalk at 8/5 may not represent the best value in the field.

win1Twirling LadML 4/1

Twirling Lad leads all horses in this maiden special weight field with a 76.07 TrackWiz rating — a meaningful advantage over the 8/5 morning-line favorite Ohonte's Own (59.00) — while opening at 4/1 on the morning line. Trainer Horacio De Paz puts Edgard J. Zayas up, a jockey who navigates the Belmont turf course expertly. An avg speed of 54 matches the top tier of this field, and the rating-to-price ratio makes this the best play on the board.

place3High LeverageML 6/1

High Leverage posts the field's best avg speed figure at 55, a subtle but important edge in a maiden turf route where ground-saving pace scenarios can amplify small differences in raw ability. Javier Castellano is aboard for Keri Brion — a trainer with a sharp eye for developing young turf horses — and the 6/1 morning line offers legitimate place value for exotics.

show6LobbyistML 8/1

Lobbyist is a second runner for the David G. Donk barn alongside Sleep Walking, and at 8/1 on the morning line, he's clearly the second-string choice — but a 65.89 TrackWiz rating and an avg speed of 54 say he belongs in the exotics. Dylan Davis picks up the mount, and Donk often gets surprising performances from his deeper entries when his barn is firing.

Race 5

7:07 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

First-time starters dominate this maiden special weight sprint on the dirt, making raw speed figures and trainer angles the primary handicapping tools — workouts and connections will separate the contenders from the also-rans.

win2First SiteML 8/5

First Site opens as the 8/5 morning-line favorite with a 59.00 TrackWiz rating — tops in this debut field — and an avg speed of 55 that leads all horses who have published figures. Javier Castellano, one of the most accomplished jockeys in the game, takes the mount for Anthony W. Dutrow, giving this runner an elite edge in horsemanship. First-time starters with Castellano aboard at short prices tend to be well-prepped, and the raw figures support his favoritism.

place5Mitoleon DynamiteML 7/2

Mitoleon Dynamite opens at 7/2 and posts a 55.83 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field — for trainer Amelia J. Green, who also sends out Miss Ma'am. Christopher Elliott gets the mount, and in a field where several runners have no published speed figures at all, having any measurable edge matters. A two-horse barn attack from Green could easily result in a 1-2 finish.

show1Miss Ma'amML 9/2

Miss Ma'am draws the rail for Dylan Davis and trainer Amelia J. Green — yes, the same barn as our place pick, making this a dual-entry stable scenario worth noting. A 54.17 rating and a 9/2 morning line put her in the mix as a show play, and rail draws on the Belmont dirt sprint can be advantageous when a horse breaks cleanly.

Race 6

7:39 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Four horses are clustered between 77 and 80 on the TrackWiz ratings scale in this starter allowance, setting up what could be a genuinely competitive mile on the dirt — the morning-line favorite at 2/1 might be underlaid given how tight the top of this field really is.

win5Moon GateML 8/1

Moon Gate leads all starters with an 79.79 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate — numbers that would typically attract tighter morning-line odds than 8/1. Trainer Mitchell E. Friedman spots this one in the right spot against other starter allowance types, and Ruben Silvera gets the mount with solid recent form. The value here is undeniable: the top-rated horse in the field at 8/1 is exactly the kind of bet that wins long-term.

place3SarirML 5/2

Sarir is the 5/2 third choice on the morning line with a 79.24 rating and a 10% career win rate — entirely respectable in starter allowance company. Linda Rice trains two runners in this field and Jose Lezcano gets this one, suggesting Rice and Lezcano are confident in Sarir's chances at the route distance. The rating edge over the 2/1 favorite Adrian is real, and this is the horse to beat on paper if Moon Gate underperforms.

show2BeiraML 3/1

Beira's 19% career win rate is the second best in the field and Flavien Prat — one of the premier turf and dirt riders in the country — takes the mount at 3/1 for Richard E. Dutrow, Jr. A 78.51 TrackWiz rating keeps her right in the conversation, and backing a Prat-trained mount to at least hit the board is rarely a losing long-term strategy.

Race 7

8:11 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Rare Society is the clear class of this claiming field at 8/5 on the morning line, but two Ferraro barn horses are lurking with competitive ratings — the real question is whether the favorite can justify the short price against a field that has legitimate depth.

win4Rare SocietyML 8/5

Rare Society leads all comers with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the highest top-line number of any horse in today's card's later races — and Dylan Davis picks up a powerful mount for Linda Rice in what looks like a class edge situation. A 14% career win rate in what has been a tough competition bracket suggests this horse is ready to break through with a favorable pace setup. At 8/5, the price is short but the rating separation over the field is hard to argue with.

place3NightscopeML 4/1

Nightscope is the most intriguing piece of the puzzle: a 33% career win rate — by far the best in the field — and an 82.92 TrackWiz rating at 4/1 on the morning line for the James W. Ferraro barn. Jose Lezcano is one of the circuit's most reliable closers in seven-furlong dirt sprints, and a horse that converts at one-in-three across its career belongs in every exotic ticket you write.

show2Will of a WomanneML 8/1

Will of a Womanne sits at 8/1 on the morning line but carries a 79.34 TrackWiz rating — third best in the field and better than some horses attracting much more attention from the morning-line odds. Edgard J. Zayas has the mount for Ferraro, giving the trainer two live shots in this race, and at that price Will of a Womanne is worth a spot in trifecta tickets as a value show play.

Race 8

8:43 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Chad Brown sends out two runners in this allowance optional claiming on the turf, and one of them carries the top TrackWiz rating while opening at double the morning-line odds of the other — that kind of stable split creates an immediate value angle worth exploring.

win7Nonna LynneML 7/2

Nonna Lynne tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and opens at 7/2 on the morning line — more than double the odds of Chad Brown's other entry, Mommy's Turn, despite owning a higher rating. Manuel Franco gets the mount, a pairing that regularly delivers on the Chad Brown turf circuit. A 33% career win rate backs up the tape, and our analysis has this as a clear value play over the morning-line favorite.

place3Mommy's TurnML 2/1

Mommy's Turn is the eye-catcher in terms of career stats — a 66% win rate that stands alone as the highest conversion figure on today's card. Chad Brown and Jose Lezcano is a combination that wins turf races for a living, and a 74.34 TrackWiz rating at 2/1 makes her a legitimate underneath play even if Nonna Lynne has the overall ratings edge.

show4Sail With the WindML 5/1

Sail With the Wind opens at 5/1 with a 68.65 TrackWiz rating for Jeremiah C. Englehart and gets Flavien Prat aboard — a jockey who regularly finds himself in winning position on turf horses at one mile. A 14% career win rate is respectable for an allowance-level runner, and this is exactly the type who can sneak into the trifecta on a honest pace.

Race 9

9:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Turf

A full field of maidens collides in the nightcap on the turf, and buried in the program numbers is a horse with the highest TrackWiz rating in the bunch opening at nearly 5/1 — large maiden fields on the turf are a handicapper's playground, and there's a strong value case to be made tonight.

win2AperitifML 9/2

Aperitif earns an outstanding 84.90 TrackWiz rating — the best in a 13-horse field — and opens at 9/2 on the morning line despite drawing program number 2, which should get her a clean trip on the inside in a 6-furlong turf sprint. Trainer Elizabeth M. Merryman pairs with Jaime Rodriguez, and an avg speed figure of 55 sits at the top of the field alongside Blue Authenticity and Midtown Mischief. In a packed maiden field where the ratings gap is this pronounced, the value argument is compelling.

place13Island CharmML 3/1

Island Charm draws the outside post (program 13) but gets Manuel Franco aboard for Ilkay Kantarmaci — and Franco's ability to navigate a big turf field from an outside draw is well-documented. A 65.47 rating at 3/1 on the morning line offers solid place value, and Franco won't let post position be an excuse if this filly is the horse the trainer thinks she is.

show7Blue AuthenticityML 7/2

Blue Authenticity opens at 7/2 with a 55.83 TrackWiz rating and teams up Javier Castellano with Bruce R. Brown — a barn that targets maiden turf sprints with well-prepared runners. An avg speed of 55 matches the top tier of this field, and Castellano's record in maiden turf events speaks for itself as a reason to include this one in your exotics.

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Nine races, fair weather, and a turf-heavy program that rewards sharp handicapping — today's Big A card has all the ingredients for a productive Sunday at the races. Two Ducks, Protective Custody, and Miss Lao headline the free plays, while Moon Gate at 8/1 and pace dominator Rare Society are the names to know in the premium half. Get the complete picture — pace, exotics, and longshot angles — with a TrackWiz subscription. Good luck, and Happy Father's Day.

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