Daily Picks

Belmont At The Big A Picks & Predictions — June 20, 2026

Saturday, June 20, 202610 racesBelmont At The Big A

It's a beautiful Saturday at Belmont at the Big A — clear skies, 78°F, and a 10-race card that gives you plenty of angles to work with from first post to finale. The turf courses should be running at their best in these conditions, and with six of today's ten races contested on the green stuff, grass form is going to be the name of the game.

The marquee event is the Race 7 turf sprint stakes, where Spirit of New York draws plenty of attention at 3/1 on the morning line. But don't sleep on the earlier races — our TrackWiz ratings are flagging some sharp contenders in the allowance and claiming ranks that could set up nicely for multi-race exotics. Ten races, two surfaces, and a gorgeous June afternoon. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:10 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

A wide-open turf sprint with two heavy hitters at the top — but the morning line tells you the public is already leaning hard on a pair of short prices, making this race a value puzzle from the jump.

win6Shape NoteML 6/5

Shape Note enters as the clear TrackWiz top-rated horse in this field with an 89.71 rating, and that number doesn't lie — she's also the career win percentage leader at 46%, meaning she converts nearly one in two starts. The 6/5 morning line reflects the public's confidence, and trainer Michael J. Maker has a strong reputation for getting turf sprinters ready to fire. Jockey Dylan Davis takes the call, and this looks like a horse that's simply better than the rest of the field on paper.

place7CommutedML EVN

Commuted opens at even money, the second-shortest price on the board, and posts a 73.72 TrackWiz rating with a 41% career win rate — both numbers that demand respect in any allowance field. Trainer Linda Rice keeps a busy and productive barn, and Manuel Franco in the irons is always a factor at this level. Even if Shape Note is the class of the field, Commuted figures to be right there at the wire.

show3MassetoML 7/2

Masseto is the pace factor to watch here, posting the field's best average speed figure at 59 and carrying a 40% career win rate for the capable Mark E. Casse barn. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's some overlay potential if the top two prices compress at the windows. Edgard J. Zayas has the experience to position this horse well in a short turf sprint.

Race 2

5:38 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong dirt claimer where TrackWiz analysis sees a clear standout bucking a short morning line — but the pace could set up in multiple ways with several speed-types in the gate.

win3Spirit DragonML 7/2

Spirit Dragon earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 86.35 and posts a 33% career win percentage — that's a strong conversion rate in a claiming field like this. Trainer Antonio Arriaga sends him out with Ruben Silvera up, and the 7/2 morning line represents genuine value given how much this horse separates from the field in our ratings. Don't let the modest price scare you off — this one looks like the real deal.

place5BurninhunkofloveML 2/1

Burninhunkoflove enters as the morning line favorite at 2/1 with a 73.72 TrackWiz rating and a 27% career win rate, making her a legitimate contender even if she falls just short of our top pick. Linda Rice conditions this horse, and Jaime Rodriguez has a strong working relationship with the barn. If the pace sets up honest, she's got the profile to hit the board at minimum.

show6Looms BoldlyML 5/2

Looms Boldly checks in at 5/2 on the morning line with a 69.81 rating and 25% career win percentage — a steady, reliable type that fits snugly in the exotic slots. Trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci has horses ready to compete in this conditions bracket, and Edgard J. Zayas is a polished rider who knows how to squeeze out a piece of the purse. A solid underneath selection for exactas and trifectas.

Race 3

6:06 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A full and competitive mile on the turf with double-digit runners — the pace scenario here is genuinely complex, and the right closer could be sitting on a big run if the speed battles early.

win3AnnexperienceML 5/2

Annexperience commands the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win percentage, and trainer Jeremiah C. Englehart is one of the sharper conditioners at this circuit with turf routers. Kendrick Carmouche pilots here, a jockey who excels at rating horses in a big field and finding room late in a mile trip. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is close to a fair price for a horse that has a meaningful rating edge over the competition.

place4Iron MaxML 3/1

Iron Max brings a 78.36 TrackWiz rating and a 27% career win rate — the second-best win percentage among the legitimate contenders in this field. Brad H. Cox is a nationally elite trainer, and getting him at this level is an angle you can't ignore. Jaime Rodriguez is aboard, and this horse has the speed figure credentials to sit just off a contested pace and pounce.

show8Three B'sML 3/1

Three B's has a 67.55 rating and a 28% career win percentage — actually the highest win rate among our top three picks, which says something about his ability to close out a race. Trainer Linda Rice keeps a full and productive stable, and Sahin Civaci gives this horse a capable ride in a big, competitive field. At 3/1, he's not a huge overlay, but he belongs in trifecta coverage.

TrackWiz is giving you three races on the house today. Shape Note opens the card in Race 1, a 6-furlong turf allowance optional claimer, and at 6/5 on the morning line she carries our highest free-race rating at 89.71 — that's a number that commands respect. The turf should be firm and fast in this weather, which sets up well for a horse with her profile. In Race 2, Spirit Dragon (7/2 ML) gives us our best dirt play of the free portion on the 6-furlong main track, rated 86.35 by our models. And in Race 3, Annexperience (5/2 ML) stretches out to a mile on the turf — the added ground looks like a plus, and the 87.81 TrackWiz rating makes her a solid early-card foundation for your Pick 3 ticket.

One theme connecting these three free picks: all three are running on surfaces that should be playing true and fair given the dry, mild conditions. No bias concerns, no rain-softened turf to complicate things — just clean reads on class and form. A strong start to the card.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:36 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

Maiden claimers on the turf are notoriously difficult to predict, but two horses separate themselves significantly from the rest of an eleven-runner field — expect a top-heavy wagering pool.

win5Five Dozen RosesML 3/1

Five Dozen Roses tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 in what is otherwise a pretty wide-open maiden field, and her average speed figure of 56 ties for the best in the field. Trainer Linda Rice has been sharp with first-time and lightly-raced turf maidens, and Dylan Davis gets the mount — a rider who's comfortable rating horses on a short turf sprint. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a fair price for the top-rated horse.

place10My Lil Army GirlML 4/1

My Lil Army Girl is right on Five Dozen Roses' heels with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and a matching average speed figure of 56 — this looks like a two-filly race at the top. Carlos F. Martin conditions her, and Jose Lezcano is a crafty veteran who can save ground on the turf and get position when it counts. The 4/1 morning line makes her an attractive place option with legitimate win potential.

show3Just One MoreML 6/1

Just One More doesn't have the rating of the top two but checks in at 59.53 — a significant step above the rest of the field. Trainer Amelia J. Green gets a live mount here, and Christopher Elliott has been a steady presence at the Big A circuit. At 6/1, this filly has enough class to grab a piece in a field where the bottom half is nowhere near competitive.

Race 5

7:07 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

This starter allowance at seven furlongs on the dirt features a heavy morning line favorite who also happens to be our top-rated horse — the question is whether the price is worth it or if there's value hiding in the mid-range.

win1TimiaML 2/1

Timia is the TrackWiz top pick by a wide margin with an 88.54 rating — the highest in this field and nearly 12 points clear of the next rival. Trainer Wayne Potts puts Jaime Rodriguez in the saddle, a rider who's been getting results at this meet. The 2/1 morning line is short but this horse has the profile to justify it — dominant ratings, a workmanlike career, and the right jockey for a seven-furlong dirt test.

place4A. P. SlingshotML 7/2

A. P. Slingshot owns an 18% career win rate and a 76.97 TrackWiz rating — the second-best mark in this field by a comfortable margin. Manuel Franco takes the call for trainer Bruce N. Levine, and Franco is among the most consistent riders in the New York circuit. At 7/2, there's some value here if Timia beats herself or gets caught in a pace battle.

show8Scarlet's DreamML 6/1

Scarlet's Dream brings a 69.15 TrackWiz rating and a 10% career win rate, but trainer Keri Brion is worth following when she ships into this kind of spot — she tends to have horses ready. Christopher Elliott handles the mount, and at 6/1 on the morning line, this mare represents a legitimate value option for trifecta plays. Her average speed figure is competitive with the top of the field.

Race 6

7:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A deep and tricky turf claiming field going a mile and a sixteenth — the morning line favorite sits in the middle of the pack on our ratings, which creates a real opportunity for the TrackWiz top pick at a short but fair price.

win9Fever NightML 9/5

Fever Night draws a 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the best in this eleven-horse field — and a 17% career win percentage that's solid for this conditions level. Trainer Linda Rice sends him out with Jose Lezcano, a savvy veteran perfectly suited to rating a horse through a longer turf route. At 9/5 on the morning line, the public already likes this horse, and TrackWiz agrees — he's the standout on ratings and pedigree for this spot.

place2Bar FourteenML 7/2

Bar Fourteen checks in at a 71.27 TrackWiz rating with an 11% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54 — consistent enough to be a reliable board piece here. Bruce R. Brown conditions the horse, and Christopher Elliott gets the call, a rider who handles turf routes well around this circuit. At 7/2, there's genuine place value if Fever Night gets the bulk of the exotic action.

show11Expensive CutML 5/2

Expensive Cut enters at 5/2 with a 65.96 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate — modest numbers on their own, but competitive in a field where half the runners are well below that threshold. Silvestre Gonzalez rides for trainer Mertkan Kantarmaci, and the price here is interesting given that Expensive Cut could drift to a bigger number if the public loads up on the top two. A smart show or underneath play in trifectas.

Race 7

8:13 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Turf

The stakes race is the marquee event of the card — a loaded six-furlong turf sprint where the heavy favorite doesn't top our ratings, setting up a potentially rewarding upset scenario at the top of the exotic pools.

win4Spirit of New YorkML 3/1

Spirit of New York earns the top TrackWiz rating in this stakes field at 87.08 with a 40% career win percentage — one of the better conversion rates you'll see in a field at this level. Manuel Franco is aboard for trainer Adam Rice, and Franco on a top-rated horse in a sprint is about as good a scenario as you can draw up. The 3/1 morning line offers real value over the heavy favorite, and our analysis says this is the horse to beat.

place10Sculcos FollyML 4/5

Sculcos Folly is the morning line favorite at 4/5 with an 86.12 TrackWiz rating and a jaw-dropping 75% career win percentage — that number alone demands respect in any field. Richard E. Dutrow Jr. conditions this horse, and Jaime Rodriguez is a reliable hand in short turf sprints. Even if we're leaning toward Spirit of New York for the win, Sculcos Folly is too talented and too proven to leave out of the place and exacta coverage.

show3Wit StormML 7/2

Wit Storm comes in with an 82.47 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — competitive numbers for a stakes field of this depth. Trainer Barclay Tagg is a Hall of Fame conditioner who has a long history of winning big races at this track, and Katie Davis handles the ride. At 7/2, there's legitimate value for a horse of this caliber in a race where the top two could potentially cut each other's throats on the front end.

Race 8

8:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer at seven furlongs on the dirt where every runner is seeking their first career victory — the ratings separation is meaningful but far from insurmountable in a field full of unknown quantities.

win7Always HonestML 9/2

Always Honest tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 in this maiden field and draws a 9/2 morning line — that's a slight overlay for the top-rated runner in any race. Trainer Jose M. Jimenez sends her out with Edgard J. Zayas, a polished jockey who knows how to handle inexperienced maidens and find a clean path in a crowded field. The average speed figure of 53 is right in line with the competitive portion of this field, and the rating edge is real.

place6InonitML 4/1

Inonit posts a 79.59 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and opens at 4/1, making her a compelling place selection to pair with the win pick. Trainer Lisa L. Lugovich gets Jaime Rodriguez for this maiden sprint, and Rodriguez has the experience to keep a first-timer focused over seven furlongs of dirt. The fact that she's sitting just below Always Honest on ratings while offering a bigger price makes her an attractive exacta play.

show10Big BrooklynML 10/1

Big Brooklyn rolls in at 10/1 on the morning line but puts up a 59.86 TrackWiz rating — comfortably ahead of the bottom half of this field. Trainer Carlos F. Martin gets Jose Lezcano aboard, and Lezcano is the kind of veteran who can coax a performance out of a maiden that others might overlook. In a wide-open field at a big price, Big Brooklyn has enough underlying quality to show up on the board and give exotics a nice boost.

Race 9

9:16 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A competitive seven-furlong dirt claimer where TrackWiz identifies a clear top pick sitting just off the favorite's price — and a potential value play lurking at 8/1 that could blow up the trifecta.

win2ShellacML 3/1

Shellac leads the TrackWiz ratings at 82.84 and carries a 14% career win rate in what is a genuinely competitive field for this class level. Trainer Linda Rice puts Jose Lezcano on board — a veteran rider who's most comfortable in exactly this kind of spot, rating a dirt horse through the first half and letting him roll. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is solid value for the top-rated runner in the field.

place5Charlie CharmerML 8/1

Charlie Charmer owns the second-best TrackWiz rating at 79.79 and a 25% career win percentage — the highest conversion rate among any of our picks in this race. Trainer Gustavo Rodriguez sends him out with Kendrick Carmouche, a jockey who excels at finding the right trip in dirt sprints-turned-routers. The 8/1 morning line looks generous for a horse with a 25% win rate and a near-80 rating, making him a strong value underneath.

show10Tapwrits TemperML 9/2

Tapwrits Temper checks in at a 73.39 TrackWiz rating with a 4% career win rate — the win percentage is low, but the rating says this horse runs competitively even when it doesn't close out a win. Manuel Franco takes over for trainer Wayne Potts, and Franco is the kind of rider who can squeeze a piece of the board out of a horse in this spot. At 9/2, this is a reasonable show play to round out the trifecta.

Race 10

9:48 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

The nightcap sends out a twelve-horse maiden claimer on the turf — a brutal way to close the card, but our ratings identify a sharp two-horse separation at the top that points toward a clear betting strategy.

win3Garden of GraceML 7/2

Garden of Grace earns the top TrackWiz rating in this big maiden field at 86.35, and trainer George Weaver has a strong track record developing young turf horses in exactly this kind of maiden claimer. Jaime Rodriguez takes the mount, one of the better decisions in this field — he's proven reliable in short turf sprints and knows how to get position from the rail in a full gate. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is close to a fair price for a horse with a significant rating advantage.

place8TuthilltownML 4/1

Tuthilltown comes in with an 80.03 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field — and trainer Rodolphe Brisset is a sharp conditioner who consistently gets big efforts from turf maidens making their way up. Edgard J. Zayas handles the ride and is always a threat to steal a big number when placed on a lightly-raced turf horse. The 4/1 morning line makes this an attractive exacta partner with Garden of Grace.

show1Raynham HallML 5/1

Raynham Hall posts a 54.82 TrackWiz rating and shows an average speed figure of 53 — modest, but well above the cluster of longshots at the bottom of this field. Trainer Rudy R. Rodriguez gets Christopher Elliott in the irons, and Elliott has been a consistent presence at the Big A circuit all meet long. At 5/1, Raynham Hall is a reasonable show option and a value add in the trifecta for a race where anything below our top three is largely a throw.

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Today's card at Belmont at the Big A is a turf-heavy, value-rich afternoon with Shape Note leading the charge early and Spirit of New York giving the stakes race real intrigue. Our free analysis covers Races 1, 2, and 3 — a solid foundation for any bankroll. For the full 10-race breakdown, exotic ticket structures, and pace scenario deep dives, TrackWiz subscribers have everything they need. Check out /pricing to get on board, and good luck at the windows today.

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