Belmont At The Big A Picks & Predictions — June 25, 2026
It's a beautiful Thursday at Aqueduct's Big A — clear skies, 79 degrees, and a firm turf course that should play right into the hands of closers who can handle a genuine pace scenario. Eight races are on the menu today, split evenly between dirt and turf, giving bettors plenty of angles to work across multiple surfaces.
The card leans heavily toward the grass early, with three of the first four races going on the turf. That kind of surface concentration in the early going can set up some interesting multi-race wager opportunities if you can identify the turf horses who are quietly moving forward. Keep that in mind as we walk through the day.
Our TrackWiz ratings span a pretty wide range today — from a tight, wide-open maiden sprint to a couple of claiming races where we've found some genuine separation. There's real value to be found here if you know where to look.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 1 3/16 mi · Turf
A wide-open maiden turf route where first-out runners from two powerhouse barns collide — pace shape is murky and the outcome could hinge on who handles the 1 3/16-mile distance best.
Stand the Rain draws the eye as our top selection despite an average speed figure of 50 — on the turf at this distance, tactical ability and trainer preparation often matter more than raw numbers. Miguel Clement is a trusted hand with grass maidens at Belmont, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the market agrees this horse is ready to fire. Our TrackWiz rating of 65.76 leads the field, and with Jaime Rodriguez in the irons, expect a patient stalking trip that sets up perfectly for the final turn. First-out turf maidens from Clement's barn at this distance are worth watching closely.
Chartist is the sneaky play here — also trained by Miguel Clement, giving the barn a two-pronged attack in this race. The 62.91 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 54 both rank among the field's best for horses with published workouts, and at 6/1 on the morning line there's genuine place value. Dylan Davis rides, and he knows Clement's turf horses well.
Mary Lois is the morning-line favorite at even money for good reason — Chad C. Brown's turf maidens demand respect, and Flavien Prat is as good as it gets on the grass. Her 60.0 rating slots in just below Chartist, but the Brown-Prat combination at Belmont on turf is one of the most reliable pairings in the game. Use her underneath in exactas and trifectas as a safe landing spot.
Race 2
Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
Blenheim Baby arrives with a towering TrackWiz rating and short odds, but That'sthefactjack and Lady Wisdom bring legitimate win credentials that could make this a real fight around the far turn.
Blenheim Baby is the standout in this claiming mile on dirt — an 88.83 TrackWiz rating is the highest in the field by a wide margin, and trainer Jorge R. Abreu has a sharp eye for placing claimers at the right level. The 14% career win rate doesn't scream dominance, but paired with Flavien Prat in the saddle and that elite rating, she's the one to beat at 9/5. She doesn't offer much value at the morning line, but her form profile makes her the right single in vertical wagers.
That'sthefactjack brings a solid 10% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 69.44 — second-best in the field — at a generous 5/1 morning line. Trainer Domenick Schettino places horses well at this level, and Jaime Rodriguez should get a good trip from post 4. The place price here offers real value if the chalk fires as expected.
Spirit of Esther catches the eye as an underneath option at 6/1 — trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci knows this circuit, and a 59.39 rating puts her squarely in the mix for a piece of the purse. She's only won 3% of her career starts, so the win is a stretch, but in a wide-open claiming field she's a legitimate show-bet hedge and a trifecta piece worth including.
Race 3
Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf
Island Charm stands out dramatically in a deep maiden claiming field on the turf, but with ten horses going 1 1/16 miles, traffic and trip could trump talent — this one could get messy.
Island Charm is the class of this field — an 86.35 TrackWiz rating that towers over the competition, trained by Ilkay Kantarmaci and piloted by Manuel Franco from the rail. A speed figure of 51 is modest, but in maiden claiming company on the turf, this horse's overall profile simply grades out above everyone else. Franco's ability to find a stalking trip from post 1 in a 10-horse turf field is key, and at 7/2 there's enough value to make her the confident best bet of this race.
Mia Sophia at 8/1 is a legitimate value play for the place spot — her 62.58 TrackWiz rating and a 53 average speed figure both rank comfortably in the upper half of this field. Trainer Edward DeLauro doesn't always get the headlines, but Reylu Gutierrez is a capable rider who can get the most out of a turf maiden at this distance. At those morning-line odds, she's an excellent second leg in exactas.
Find Your Path brings a 61.18 rating and a 53 average speed figure under trainer Anthony Dutrow, who has a well-established knack for developing turf horses. Katie Davis rides, and while the 9/2 morning line suggests the market has spotted some ability here, the value in the show slot is real in a field this large. Toss her in the trifecta — she has the profile to hit the board.
We're giving away our top picks in the first three races, and they tell an interesting story. Stand the Rain draws our eye in the turf maiden opener at 5/2 on the morning line — firm turf on a clear day is exactly the kind of setup where first-time grass runners with strong works can surprise. Over on the dirt in Race 2, Blenheim Baby carries our highest TrackWiz rating of the three free races (88.83) and looks like the most confident call on the early card at 9/5. That rating suggests genuine class separation in what appears to be an evenly-matched claiming field.
Island Charm rounds out our free picks in Race 3, a maiden claiming route on the turf at 7/2. A 86.35 rating in a maiden claimer at that price is the kind of number that catches our attention — and with the turf playing fast today, a horse with tactical speed and route experience could wire this field. These three races alone give you a solid foundation for your early Pick 3 tickets.
Full Card Analysis
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Today's card has something for everyone — from a high-confidence dirt play in Race 2 with Blenheim Baby to intriguing turf value scattered across the card. Our three free picks are live now, and the full eight-race breakdown including pace scenarios, exotic structures, and our top longshot angle is waiting for subscribers. Don't leave money on the table — check out TrackWiz Premium and get the complete picture before post time.