Daily Picks

Belmont At The Big A Picks & Predictions — May 25, 2026

Monday, May 25, 20269 racesBelmont At The Big A

Happy Memorial Day Monday at Belmont at the Big A. Nine races are on the board today under overcast skies and a comfortable 64°F — the kind of cool, calm afternoon where pace scenarios tend to play out cleanly and speed figures hold their shape. No rain in the mix, so we're expecting firm footing on both the dirt and the turf strips.

It's a turf-leaning card, with five of the nine races run on the grass. That puts a premium on horses with proven turf form and trainers who know how to spot a soft spot on the condition book. The claiming ranks dominate today's program, which means class angles and recent form are going to do a lot of the heavy lifting in our analysis.

TrackWiz has a full nine-race breakdown for you — three races are open to everyone, and the remaining six are available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A short-field claiming sprint on the dirt where TrackWiz ratings create a clear top two — but the morning line tells a different story, setting up a potential overlay situation worth exploiting.

win2The Toy CannonML 5/2

The Toy Cannon is the standout on our ratings sheet with an 87.81 — a significant gap above anyone else in this field. Brad Cox is one of the sharpest trainers in the game, and landing Manuel Franco in the irons is a strong positive signal. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is a horse whose rating justifies favoritism even if the public price doesn't fully reflect it. The 16% career win rate is modest, but Cox routinely wins with horses at the right spot.

place5Momentum FilesML 3/1

Momentum Files has the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 67.04 and posts the top average speed figure of the group at 55. Rudy Rodriguez conditions this one, and Ruben Silvera gets the call — a workmanlike pairing that tends to fire at fair odds. At 3/1, this horse represents solid place value behind our top pick.

show3IcanML 8/5

Ican is the morning line favorite at 8/5, which makes the show position an interesting hedge — if the public is right, you're cashing, and if they're wrong, you're using a likely pace factor. Linda Rice is a reliable barn in New York claiming company, and a 55.99 rating is enough to suggest a piece of the purse. Worth including in exacta/trifecta coverage.

Race 2

5:38 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

On the turf at 1 1/16 miles, a heavy favorite clashes with a field where the TrackWiz numbers tell a sharply different story — the morning line favorite isn't our top-rated horse, and that divergence is where the value hides.

win8FrizzanteML 5/2

Frizzante tops our ratings at 87.81 — the highest mark in the field — yet goes off at 5/2 on the morning line while Ocean Atlantique is installed as the 3/5 chalk. Linda Rice conditions this one, and Jaime Rodriguez picks up the mount. A 10% career win rate is nothing to write home about, but the rating gap here is substantial, and turf routes at 1 1/16 miles reward horses with stamina profiles that aren't always captured in raw win percentages.

place2Ocean AtlantiqueML 3/5

Ocean Atlantique is the morning line hammer at 3/5, trained by Joe Sharp and ridden by the reliable Manuel Franco. A 78.03 rating and 14% career win rate make this one a legitimate contender, and at a short price, place payouts may be slim — but the class is undeniable. We slot her second in our order.

show9Castle ChaosML 9/5

Castle Chaos checks in with a 64.11 rating and a 14% career win rate, matching Ocean Atlantique's win percentage at much better odds (9/5 ML). Trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci also saddles two other horses in this race, which can sometimes signal a barn in sharp form. The top average speed figure of 54 in a field where most others match makes this one a worthwhile show and exotic play.

Race 3

6:06 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

A loaded turf sprint featuring multiple high-rated contenders and a Linda Rice barn sending out three horses — the trainer angle alone makes this race complicated, but the TrackWiz numbers carve out a clear pecking order.

win5Artistic SuccessML 2/1

Artistic Success leads all comers with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and posts a 14% career win rate with a 55 average speed figure — right at the top of the field. Joe Sharp has been a consistent presence on the New York turf circuit, and Manuel Franco in the irons is about as good as it gets. At 2/1 on the morning line, this is a well-priced top pick in a race where the data strongly supports her.

place10SarirML 7/5

Sarir is the morning line favorite at 7/5 with an 82.28 rating, second only to our win pick. Linda Rice runs this one alongside two stablemates, and Jose Lezcano handles the mount — a reliable combo in New York. The 10% career win rate keeps us from making her our top selection, but the rating and rider make her a virtual lock for the place pool.

show8Leslie's StarML 4/1

Leslie's Star is an intriguing third piece here — she actually posts the field's top average speed figure at 56, which is notable in a speed-figure-driven sprint. Also trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Jose Lezcano, she carries a 75.2 rating and a 12% career win rate. The barn running three horses can dilute individual effort, but in exotics this one has legitimate upside.

Our three free best bet races today span both surfaces and give you a solid cross-section of the card. On the dirt, The Toy Cannon opens the day in Race 1 at 6 furlongs — a short, sharp sprint where early speed on a cool, quick track can be decisive. Over on the turf, Frizzante stretches out to 1 1/16 miles in Race 2, a distance that should suit closers if the pace scenario sets up right. Then Artistic Success comes in as our highest-rated free pick (88.54 TrackWiz rating) in Race 3 — a 6-furlong turf sprint where the morning line of 2/1 suggests the market already agrees with us.

One angle to keep in mind across the free races: the turf plays today are on a course that figures to be on the firm side given the dry, mild conditions. Horses that have posted strong figures on firm turf in recent starts get a significant bump in our model, and that's a big part of why Artistic Success sits at the top of Race 3.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:36 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Seven furlongs on the dirt with a clear TrackWiz standout at the top — Schlomo's 88.54 rating is a full 16 points clear of the field, but at 2/1 you're betting on a morning line favorite to deliver in a race that shapes as honest.

win2SchlomoML 2/1

Schlomo is the class of this field by a wide margin — 88.54 TrackWiz rating, a 22% career win rate that leads all entrants, and a 55 average speed figure. William Mott is a Hall of Fame trainer who consistently puts horses in favorable spots, and Sahin Civaci draws the mount. At 2/1, you're not getting a bargain, but the data justifies the price — this is a horse that should handle 7 furlongs on the dirt with ease.

place4Thrill of ItML 5/2

Thrill of It rates second in the field at 72.26 and posts a 54 average speed figure to go with an 11% career win rate. Trained by John Terranova II with Jaime Rodriguez up, this one profiles as a pace presser who could benefit if Schlomo draws the speed horses into a battle. At 5/2, the place price should offer real value.

show6PrincipML 7/2

Princip clocks in at 66.5 on our ratings with a 55 average speed figure — tied for the best in the field — and a respectable 13% career win rate. Edgard Zayas gets the call for trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci. While not our top selection, the speed figure and rider give Princip a realistic shot at grabbing a piece of the exacta, and at 7/2 the show price should be worth something.

Race 5

7:07 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 3/8 mi · Turf

A maiden special weight on the turf going the marathon distance of 1 3/8 miles — a tough puzzle with a field of winless horses, but the powerhouse Pletcher and Brown barns dominate the entries, and our top pick is a significant overlay candidate.

win2WhitethornML 2/1

Whitethorn has the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 and goes postward at 2/1 — the morning line favorite. Todd Pletcher knows how to win maiden turf routes, and landing Manuel Franco is a clear intent signal from the barn. The 53 average speed figure is solid for a maiden, and with zero career wins in the field, this race comes down to who's progressing fastest — and our data puts Whitethorn ahead.

place8Mary LoisML 5/2

Mary Lois is our place pick at 57.5 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — and trained by Chad Brown, who is arguably the most dangerous trainer in the country on the grass. Jose Lezcano is a proven turf jockey in New York, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the market agrees with us. The stamina test of 1 3/8 miles may actually favor Brown horses who train long.

show6Isadora DuncanML 10/1

Isadora Duncan is a sneaky show play here — a 51.38 rating, trained by William Mott, and at 10/1 on the morning line she offers legitimate exotic value. Mott maiden turf runners frequently improve with each start, and Sahin Civaci has been a competent hand. If you're building trifectas in this wide-open maiden, she's a cost-effective third leg.

Race 6

7:38 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

A maiden claiming sprint on the turf where the top two TrackWiz-rated horses are separated by less than half a point — this race is essentially a coin flip at the top, which makes the exacta a prime target.

win3My Lil Army GirlML 5/2

My Lil Army Girl leads our ratings at 87.81 — a razor-thin edge over Five Dozen Roses — but also posts the top average speed figure in the field at 56. Jose Lezcano is one of the most accomplished turf jockeys in the New York colony, and trainer Carlos Martin places horses confidently at this level. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is a legitimate value play over the 2/1 favorite.

place1Five Dozen RosesML 2/1

Five Dozen Roses is the morning line favorite at 2/1 with an 87.55 TrackWiz rating and a 56 average speed figure that matches our top pick exactly. Linda Rice is a savvy trainer in maiden company, and Dylan Davis picks up the mount. The half-point rating difference between her and My Lil Army Girl means she absolutely belongs in the exotics — this is a race where going 1-2 with the top two makes a lot of sense.

show5Just One MoreML 7/2

Just One More comes in third on our ratings at 78.39 — a meaningful step below the top pair but well clear of the rest of the field. Trainer Amelia Green gets Jaime Rodriguez up, and at 7/2 this one has real show value and enough of a rating to sneak into a potential upset. In a field of first-time or lightly raced maidens, a 53 average speed figure isn't a disqualifier.

Race 7

8:09 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

One mile on the dirt in a starter optional claiming race packed with horses boasting strong career win percentages — this is a competitive field where class and consistency matter, and our top two rated horses are both legitimate.

win1Sweet LauraML 2/1

Sweet Laura tops the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and a 29% career win rate — nearly one in three starts ends in a win, which is elite for a claiming-level horse. Jamie Ness is a grinder trainer who knows how to spot horses, and Jaime Rodriguez gets the call. At 2/1 on the morning line, she's deserving of the top billing, and our data backs her as the most complete package in the field.

place8SnideML 3/1

Snide is a strong second at 84.58 TrackWiz rating with a 28% career win rate — also elite company. Linda Rice keeps this one in winning form, and Manuel Franco is one of the best in the business. The 3/1 morning line is fair, and in an exacta with Sweet Laura, this is a natural pairing that the data supports strongly.

show5MursalML 9/2

Mursal checks in at 74.9 on our ratings — third in the field — with a 21% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure. Also trained by Linda Rice with Dylan Davis up, the barn runs two horses here which is always worth noting. At 9/2, Mursal offers legitimate show value and is a solid third wheel in trifecta tickets.

Race 8

8:40 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Another one-mile dirt affair with a tightly bunched top group — Lucky Dude leads the TrackWiz ratings, but Tizmarkus and Passioned are breathing down his neck, setting up a race where the place and show pools could be just as lucrative.

win3Lucky DudeML 5/2

Lucky Dude tops the field at 87.81 TrackWiz rating with an 18% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure. Trainer John Kirby gets Kendrick Carmouche — a jockey who knows this track intimately — and at 5/2 on the morning line this is a horse the market is respecting without fully hammering. The rating lead is meaningful in a field where the next two are within seven points.

place6TizmarkusML 3/1

Tizmarkus rates second at 81.36 with the field's best career win percentage at 23% — a strong consistency number for a one-mile dirt runner. Jose Lezcano picks up this one for trainer James Ferraro, and the 3/1 morning line offers real place value. If Lucky Dude gets shuffled back or meets pace trouble, Tizmarkus is the most likely horse to capitalize.

show2PassionedML 6/1

Passioned is just a tick behind Tizmarkus at 81.07 TrackWiz rating — essentially a dead heat for second in our rankings — with a matching 23% career win rate. At 6/1 on the morning line, this is the best value of the trio. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro and jockey Jaime Rodriguez make for a capable combination, and this horse belongs in every trifecta you construct in Race 8.

Race 9

9:11 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

A full field of eleven goes six furlongs on the turf to close out the card — Into Diamonds stands out on our ratings, but the wide-open nature of a large turf sprint means overlays are everywhere, including a legitimate 15/1 longshot in our show spot.

win4Into DiamondsML 7/2

Into Diamonds leads the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a sparkling 25% career win rate — the best win percentage among the serious contenders. Edgard Zayas gets the mount for trainer Mark Casse, who is a perennial force on the turf circuit. The 56 average speed figure is among the best in the field, and at 7/2 on the morning line, this is a horse offering real value relative to her profile.

place8Hard CircleML 4/1

Hard Circle comes in at 66.06 TrackWiz rating with a 53 average speed figure and trainer Michael Maker, who has a long track record of hitting at Big A. Dylan Davis is a competent pick in the irons. At 4/1, Hard Circle shapes as a horse that could benefit from a pace duel among the speed horses — arriving late on the turf in a sprint can be a winning trip angle.

show11Hong Kong PhooeyML 15/1

Hong Kong Phooey is our longshot flag at 15/1 — but the underlying numbers are intriguing. A 65.67 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate mean this one has won before and isn't just a throw-in. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez saddles this one and also runs Ready Set Twirl in the same race, and Ruben Silvera gets the call. In an 11-horse turf sprint where chaos is common, a 15/1 shot with a legitimate rating is exactly the kind of horse that pays trifecta tickets.

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Bottom line for today: three solid free best bets anchored by Artistic Success in Race 3, with The Toy Cannon and Frizzante giving you action early. The full nine-race breakdown — pace projections, exotic tickets, and all the premium angles — is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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