Belmont At The Big A Picks & Predictions — May 24, 2026
It's a damp Sunday at the Big A, with rain falling and temperatures hovering around 59°F — the kind of afternoon where track bias can flip results upside down and the mud-lovers separate themselves from the field. Nine races are on the card, split across dirt and turf, and the wet weather is going to be a major factor in how we approach every single one of them.
The turf races are worth watching closely. Depending on how the ground plays, we could see late scratches and surface switches that reshape the betting landscape entirely. TrackWiz analysis flags three turf routes and two turf sprints today — keep an eye on the official track variant before you lock in tickets.
The good news? There's plenty of meat on this card. We've got a legitimate value play lurking on the morning line, a pair of allowance-level sprints that could produce big multi-race payoffs, and a 9-race slate that rewards the patient handicapper who does their homework.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf
A maiden turf sprint that's essentially a two-horse show at the top, with the Ward barn sending out a pair and Pletcher countering with a live one — but several first-timers keep this wide open.
Timbertop draws the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 59.67 and gets the gold-standard booking of John Velazquez, who consistently delivers for Wesley Ward on the turf. Ward is one of the elite conditioners in North America for short-course grass, and first-out turf sprinters from his barn command serious respect. The morning line of 6/5 reflects the market's confidence, and our numbers back that up.
Liam's Law comes in with a 58.67 TrackWiz rating — nearly identical to Timbertop's — and Flavien Prat up for Todd Pletcher is never a throwaway combination. Pletcher's maiden turf runners routinely fire fresh, and at 9/5 on the morning line, this one slots in beautifully as a place alternative if the Ward horse falters.
Tyson's Gamble rates third in the field at 57.5 and has Brad Cox behind the scenes, a conditioner who knows how to prep a horse for a debut. Manuel Franco in the irons gives this one a live rider, and at 5/2 on the morning line, including this runner in your exotics underneath the top two makes solid sense.
Race 2
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
The morning line favorite isn't the horse our analysis likes most here — Always Honest's TrackWiz rating blows away the field in a maiden claimer where the clocker's box and prior speed figures tell an interesting story.
Always Honest is the standout value play of the early card, posting a 76.88 TrackWiz rating that leads the field by more than eight points — yet goes postward at 10/1 on the morning line. That's a significant disconnect worth attacking. The average speed figure of 52 is in line with this field, and Edgard Zayas is a competent handler who can get horses into position on the dirt.
Aristide Maillol is the morning line choice at 2/1, and William Mott's 68.83 rating here is legitimate — Mott has quietly been one of the top trainers at this meet and his maiden dirt runners are worth following. With an average speed figure of 54 — tops in the field — there's real substance to the favorite's price, even if we prefer the value elsewhere for the win.
Solo Jim checks in third on our ratings at 60.26 with the Velazquez/Hennig combination, a pairing that fires regularly at the Big A. The 52 average speed is solid enough for a maiden claimer, and at 9/2 on the morning line, Solo Jim rounds out an attractive exacta or trifecta underneath the top two.
Race 3
Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
Two horses separate themselves significantly from the rest of this claiming field on class and ratings, setting up a potential pace clash with an intriguing longshot lurking underneath.
Calling an Audible tops our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35, a number that stands well clear of the rest in a competitive one-mile claiming field. An 8% career win rate might not dazzle on paper, but Sahin Civaci pilots this runner off a 54 average speed figure — one of the better speed marks in the field. At 7/2, the morning line is fair, and our numbers say this is the class of the field.
Moon Gate rates second in our model at 80.45 and presents a compelling place alternative at 4/1. The 14% career win rate shows genuine ability to close out races, and a 53 average speed figure pairs nicely with the one-mile distance on dirt. Trainer Linda Dixon keeps horses fit, and Christopher Elliott gets the call.
Pocket Queens is the morning line favorite at 7/5 and owns a 25% career win rate — the best in the field — which tells you this horse knows how to hit the board. The 52 average speed is modest, but the winning pedigree in terms of hit rate is notable. Our rating of 70.96 slots her third, making her a natural show anchor in your trifecta tickets.
We're opening up three races for all readers today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and there's a thread running through all of them worth noting. The two free dirt races (Races 2 and 3) are being run on what figures to be a wet, potentially sloppy surface, which puts a premium on horses that have already shown they can handle an off track or are bred to love it. That's a big part of why Always Honest catches our eye at 10/1 in Race 2 — that morning line price is a gift if the TrackWiz rating of 76.88 holds up against a soft maiden claiming field. Don't sleep on value at that number.
Over in Race 1, Timbertop opens as the 6/5 favorite in a maiden special weight turf sprint — a race that could be subject to a late surface switch given the conditions. And in Race 3, Calling an Audible brings the highest TrackWiz rating of the free trio at 86.35, making them our strongest free selection of the afternoon in what looks like a winnable spot at 7/2.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line: this is a card where conditions do half the handicapping for you — respect the wet track, trust the TrackWiz numbers, and don't overlook Always Honest at double-digit odds in Race 2. Our top-rated horse on the card, Final Verdict, is reserved for subscribers along with full exotic ticket breakdowns for Races 4–9. Upgrade at /pricing and get every angle before the first post.