Belmont At The Big A Picks & Predictions — May 23, 2026
It's a wet one at Aqueduct's Big A on Saturday, May 23rd. Rain is falling and temperatures are sitting at a cool 55°F, which means track condition is going to be a major factor all afternoon. Ten races are on the board, and the smart money is already paying attention to which horses have shown they can handle a wet, sealed track — and which ones are about to find out the hard way.
The card is a nice mix of conditions — we've got maiden claimers, open claimers, a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming routes, and a turf stakes race to anchor the afternoon. Speaking of turf, keep your eyes on how the going plays out on the grass. Rain can soften a turf course significantly, and several turf races are on the schedule today, including the feature. That surface question mark adds an extra layer of intrigue to an already interesting card.
Our TrackWiz models have combed through all ten races and we've got strong opinions from top to bottom. Three races are unlocked for everyone — free analysis, no subscription needed — and the remaining seven are available to TrackWiz subscribers in the full premium breakdown.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A wide-open maiden claimer with all first-timers or winless runners, but the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear hierarchy — one horse grades out significantly ahead of the field.
Lough Currane (3) owns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 83.6, a meaningful gap over the second-best horse. Trained by John P. Terranova II and piloted by Jaime Rodriguez, this is a connections combo that knows how to place a horse to win. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate value here for a horse whose profile screams lone standout in a field of question marks.
Bootsy's a Rascal (5) checks in second in the TrackWiz ratings at 67.54 and draws the services of Manuel Franco, one of the sharpest riders in the New York colony. Trainer Domenick L. Schettino sends this one out at 5/2, suggesting connections like their horse's chances — a natural fit in the exotics underneath the top pick.
Charlie Charmer (8) rates third in the field at 60.57 and gets Ricardo Santana Jr. in the irons, a rider who consistently finds the board. At 9/2 on the morning line, this horse offers solid show value and fits naturally in trifecta combinations beneath the top two picks.
Race 2
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Two horses — trained by Linda Rice and Brad Cox respectively — tower over this maiden claiming field, setting up a potential two-horse battle while the rest scramble for third.
Swaging (3) is the class of this field by TrackWiz metrics, posting an 88.54 rating that's well clear of the competition. Linda Rice sends this one out with Jaime Rodriguez up, and the horse boasts an average speed figure of 55 — tied for the best in the field. The 2/1 morning line makes this the public's choice too, but the underlying numbers confirm the favoritism is warranted.
Lifes Reward (2) is the clear second choice in our analysis, rating 71.78 with an average speed figure of 55 matching the top selection. Brad Cox is a training powerhouse with an excellent win rate when pointing horses to maiden claimers, and Manuel Franco in the saddle keeps the connections formidable. If Swaging meets any trouble, this one is the obvious heir.
Capt Fluff N Stuff (1) brings the Chad Brown barn into play at 4/1, and a Brown/Prat combo is never to be dismissed lightly in New York. Rating 55.0 with an average speed of 53, this horse profiles as a solid third-place finisher and a necessary inclusion in exacta and trifecta tickets.
Race 3
Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
A one-mile dirt claimer where one horse's TrackWiz rating stands head and shoulders above the rest, though a couple of pace-pressers could make this competitive through the stretch.
Thorsness (3) dominates the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 — more than 20 points clear of the next best. Kendrick Carmouche is a savvy veteran who excels at rating horses over a route of ground, and trainer Jeremiah Englehart is a proven conditioner in the New York claiming ranks. At 4/1 on the morning line, this is our top selection with conviction.
Salming (1) comes in with an 11% career win rate and a solid 62.53 TrackWiz rating, good for second in the field. Christopher Elliott rides for Raymond Handal, and the 5/2 morning line suggests bettors are taking this one seriously. At a mile on dirt, a horse with proven experience and a respectable speed average of 53 fits perfectly as a place play.
Noguchi (8) draws Flavien Prat — one of the most in-demand riders in the country — and trainer Linda Rice seldom wastes that booking. Rating 50.65 with an average speed of 52, Noguchi profiles as a pace-pressuring type at 7/2 who can hit the board even if the top picks run their race. Definitely include in trifecta coverage.
Our three free races today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — are all dirt sprints and routes, and that's actually good news given today's rain. The wet conditions tend to set up well for horses that like to get out early and control the pace, and our TrackWiz analysis flagged some interesting pace dynamics across all three of these openers. Keep an eye on Lough Currane in Race 1 at 4/1 morning line — that's a price worth noting in a maiden claimer where the field is still finding its footing. Swaging opens as the 2/1 morning line chalk in Race 2, and the TrackWiz rating of 88.54 backs up that favoritism. And in Race 3, the lone one-miler of the free races, Thorsness at 4/1 looks like a horse capable of handling distance and ground.
One unifying theme across the free picks: horses with prior wet-track experience have a built-in edge today. We've weighted that into our ratings, and it shows up clearly in how we've landed on each of these three top selections. These are the races to start with before you dig into the premium card.
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A rainy day at the Big A doesn't mean staying home — it means having a sharper edge than the crowd. Lough Currane, Swaging, and Thorsness headline the free plays today, and Intricate Spirit in the turf stakes is the name to know for the feature. The full ten-race breakdown — complete with pace scenarios, exotic tickets, and surface-condition analysis — is waiting for subscribers. Handicap smart, stay dry, and good luck out there.