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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — October 6, 2026

October 6, 20268 racesAll Assiniboia picks

Tuesday night racing at Assiniboia Downs, and conditions couldn't be cleaner — clear skies, a crisp 60°F, and a fast dirt surface that should reward horses who can run early and hold on. Eight races on the card tonight, all on the dirt, ranging from 5½ furlongs out to 7½, with a mix of claiming races, a maiden claiming spot, and a single allowance race anchoring the backend of the card.

The cool temperature is worth keeping in mind. Horses that have been training well in recent mornings tend to fire sharper in weather like this, and speed figures (a measure of how fast a horse ran relative to par for that class level) often pop on nights when the air is dense and the track is firm. Tonight's card has the feel of one where early pace will be honest and late closers could get a workout chasing down front-runners who've got real fuel in the tank.

There's value scattered across this entire card. Three races are available free for every TrackWiz reader, and our full premium breakdown digs into all eight. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite goes off at even money, but our ratings tell a different story — Little Eddie tops this field by a comfortable margin and figures to be the one to beat in this six-furlong dirt claimer.

win3Little EddieML 3/1

Little Eddie carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08, a meaningful edge over the second-rated horse. Trainer Ryan Desjarlais doubles up in this race, which is worth noting — he clearly likes the spot. With a 13% career win rate and an average speed figure that's competitive at this level, Little Eddie gets the nod at a very playable 3/1 morning line.

place2Jaya RulesML 5/1

Jaya Rules is the second-highest-rated horse in the field at 77.74 and brings a solid 14% career win rate to the table — best in the field among those without an inflated sample. Jockey Neville Stephenson gives this one a capable pilot, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's genuine place value here if the favorite stumbles.

show4Known to BeML EVN

Known to Be draws plenty of attention at even money on the morning line, and that 50% career win rate is eye-catching. However, the TrackWiz rating of 60 lags significantly behind our top two picks, suggesting the public may be overreacting to that win percentage. Still worth including in exotics — a horse that wins half its races doesn't just fade away.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong dirt claimer sets up as a two-horse show at the top of the ratings, with Miss Z and Play Free Bird separated by less than half a point — but one of them carries slightly better value.

win4Miss ZML 8/5

Miss Z tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.12, just a sliver ahead of Play Free Bird, and goes postward at 8/5 on the morning line. A 15% career win rate is respectable at the claiming level, and her average speed figure of 53 ties for the field's best alongside Maibella. Jockey Damario Bynoe gets the call, and trainer J. Douglas Mustard has her pointed right at this spot.

place5Play Free BirdML 6/5

Play Free Bird is essentially a dead heat with Miss Z in the ratings at 88.77, making this a razor-thin margin at the top. At 6/5 on the morning line, she's actually the public's top choice, which tells you the bettors like what they see too. Trainer Jason Homer has her positioned as the public's horse, but our analysis keeps Miss Z a nose ahead — Play Free Bird is a prime place ticket nonetheless.

show2MidnightcandystormML 5/2

Midnightcandystorm checks in with a solid 74.22 TrackWiz rating, well clear of the rest of the field below the top two. The 5/2 morning line price reflects legitimate respect from the morning line maker, and Tom Gardipy Jr. is a trainer who knows this circuit. Use her confidently underneath in exactas and trifectas.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

Sherlyn Go Go posts the field's top rating and comes in at even money, but a strong challenger lurks in Hardly Mischievous at a juicier price — the pace scenario at seven and a half furlongs could play right into the closer's hands.

win2Sherlyn Go GoML EVN

Sherlyn Go Go is the class of this field with a 90.0 TrackWiz rating — the top mark possible — and backs it up with a 27% career win rate, among the best in the race. Trainer Dale Zawislak teams with jockey Kerron Khelawan, a pairing worth tracking. The even-money morning line price is fair given how dominant the rating differential is, and at the longer trip of 7.5 furlongs, her figures suggest she should be running on at the wire.

place4Hardly MischievousML 4/1

Hardly Mischievous rates at 66.21 and is the clear second choice in our model behind Sherlyn Go Go, drawing a 4/1 morning line that offers some real value. A 17% career win rate is workmanlike, and with Sven Balroop aboard for trainer Lise Pruitt, this one has a capable team behind her. At the extended distance, there's every reason to believe she'll be involved in the finish.

show3KikiloveML 2/1

Kikilove slots in at 60.31 in our ratings and draws the 2/1 morning line, suggesting the public sees more in her than our model does — interesting divergence. Trainer Michael Nault sends her out at 7.5 furlongs with Renaldo Cumberbatch up, and a 16% career win rate keeps her competitive. She's a reasonable show play and a must-include in trifectas given the public backing.

Tonight's three free races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — give us a nice cross-section of what this card has to offer. Little Eddie opens the night at 3/1 on the morning line, posting a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 in a six-furlong claimer. Right behind him in the early sequence, Miss Z comes in as the 8/5 morning-line favorite in Race 2 with a slightly stronger 89.12 rating over the same six-furlong trip. Then Race 3 stretches things out to 7½ furlongs, and Sherlyn Go Go checks in at even money with a 90.00 rating — the top mark of the free trio.

The connecting thread across these three? All dirt sprints or near-sprints on a night where the surface should be playing honest. Horses with early pace control look particularly appealing. If there's a pace bias developing through the first few races, lean into it heading toward the premium stretch of the card — that kind of real-time intelligence is exactly what separates a good night from a great one.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:50 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Maiden claimers at five and a half furlongs are inherently unpredictable — nobody in this six-horse field has won a race — but Singing in Seattle holds a meaningful ratings edge and draws clear support from the morning line.

win1Singing in SeattleML 8/5

Singing in Seattle tops this maiden field with a TrackWiz rating of 59.0 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 8/5, so both our model and the oddsmakers are aligned. Trainer Jared Brown puts Kerron Khelawan in the irons — a strong rider on this circuit — and in a race where no horse has a win to their name, any edge in class preparation matters. This is a race where the ratings separation, slim as it is, still counts for something.

place2Three D ThrillML 4/1

Three D Thrill rates at 55.0 — second in the field — and is sent out at 4/1 by trainer Mike Taphorn, who doubles up in this race with Grand Slam Duke. Jockey Dario Dalrymple takes the mount, and the morning line price offers a touch of value relative to the top pick. In a maiden field where chaos is the norm, getting the second-rated horse at 4/1 is a reasonable play.

show6FedzecutiveML 5/1

Fedzecutive lands third in our ratings at 53.33 and opens at 5/1, which is a fair price for a horse that could easily hit the board in a wide-open maiden claimer. Rashawn Brewster pilots for trainer Terry Neubuhr, and the fact that Fedzecutive has an average speed figure of 52 in the data suggests she's seen the track before. She's a sound show play and worth including underneath in trifectas.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Dreamin Out Loud enters this six-furlong claiming field with a massive ratings edge and an elite career win percentage, making her the clear standout — but the pace picture is interesting with a pair of lower-rated horses drawing heavy public interest.

win3Dreamin Out LoudML 3/1

Dreamin Out Loud is the horse to beat here, and it's not particularly close. She posts an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by a wide margin — and backs it up with a jaw-dropping 44% career win rate. Jockey Rachaad Knights gets the call for trainer Judy Hunter, and at 3/1 on the morning line, this is a best bet candidate. Horses who win nearly half their races and carry a top rating at this class level are exactly the profiles you want to back.

place5MisspennymischiefML 9/5

Misspennymischief draws a lot of attention with a 50% career win rate — matching Known to Be from Race 1 — and opens at 9/5 as the public's choice. That said, her TrackWiz rating of 58.67 falls well short of Dreamin Out Loud's mark, suggesting the public may be overweighting the win percentage here. Still, a horse that wins half her races deserves place respect, and Neville Stephenson is comfortable handling live horses.

show1Ez Tree AtesML 8/5

Ez Tree Ates opens as the 8/5 morning line choice — oddly favored over Dreamin Out Loud in the public's eyes — but her 58.45 rating puts her a distant second in our model. Trainer Lise Pruitt sends her out with Sven Balroop up, and a 6% career win rate tempers the enthusiasm a bit. She's a reasonable show play given the public support, but don't let the morning line fool you about where the real class sits in this field.

Race 6

2:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Seven furlongs at Assiniboia brings out a deep, competitive field with legitimate contenders bunched at the top of the ratings — Finding Ways and Bati King are separated by less than two points, and No Show No Call is a sneaky value underneath.

win4Finding WaysML 2/1

Finding Ways is our top pick here with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and the most impressive average speed figure in the field at 54 — a full point above most of her rivals. That 34% career win rate is one of the strongest numbers in today's entire card, and jockey Antonio Whitehall gives trainer Judy Hunter a capable partner. At 2/1 on the morning line, she's not a screaming value, but the overall profile is the strongest in the race.

place6Bati KingML 3/1

Bati King rates at 86.67, just a tick behind Finding Ways, and the 3/1 morning line price is fair for a horse of this caliber. A 21% career win rate at the claiming level is solid, and Tyrone Nelson brings experience aboard for trainer Wendy Anderson. If Finding Ways gets caught in a pace duel, Bati King is the prime beneficiary — include her confidently in exactas.

show7No Show No CallML 10/1

No Show No Call at 10/1 is the value play in this race, and the case is straightforward: a 76.46 TrackWiz rating puts her third in the field, ahead of Golden Buck and Calming Force despite going off at a much bigger price. That 39% career win rate is the best in the entire field and demands attention. Trainer Mike Taphorn — who has multiple horses today — sends out Damario Bynoe, and the price alone makes this a must-use in trifectas.

Race 7

3:05 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A full eight-horse allowance field at six furlongs, and Banker Matt towers over the competition with the field's top rating and even-money favoritism — the interesting question is which mid-priced contender earns the place and show spots.

win8Banker MattML EVN

Banker Matt is the standout of Race 7 with a perfect 90.0 TrackWiz rating and draws even-money favoritism that our model fully endorses. A 20% career win rate at the allowance level is respectable, and the 53 average speed figure leads the field. Trainer Ryan Desjarlais puts Sven Balroop up — a rider who already figures prominently on today's card — and this looks like one of the stronger plays of the afternoon.

place6AcquireML 5/1

Acquire rates at 76.27 in our model and opens at 5/1, which is a price worth grabbing if you're building exotics around Banker Matt. A 14% career win rate is modest but workable in an allowance spot, and trainer Jason Homer teams with jockey Shavon Townsend. The gap between Acquire and the horses below her in the ratings is meaningful enough to give her a clear edge for the place spot.

show7Charlie's PrizeML 4/1

Charlie's Prize slots in just behind Acquire at 75.36 and draws a 4/1 morning line with Antonio Whitehall up for trainer Charlene Miller. An 11% career win rate is competitive in this field, and the price difference between her and Acquire is slim enough that she should be considered interchangeable in show and trifecta spots. With the top of the field clearly defined, she's a solid hedge underneath.

Race 8

3:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Arikara enters the finale as a heavy favorite at 4/5, and the rating gap between her and the field is the widest of any race on the card — but there's a solid exacta and trifecta structure behind her worth exploring.

win6ArikaraML 4/5

Arikara is a dominant 90.0 TrackWiz rating — the top mark — and the 4/5 morning line reflects total public confidence. A 33% career win rate is excellent, and jockey Kerron Khelawan has been one of the busiest and most effective riders on today's card. Trainer Robert Maybin has her primed for this spot, and at six furlongs on the dirt, she fits the conditions perfectly. The price isn't great, but the profile makes her a cornerstone of every exotic wager.

place3IndyettaML 3/1

Indyetta rates at 66.83 and opens at 3/1, giving her the second-highest rating in a field where most horses are well below the leader. A 25% career win rate is the best among the non-favorite contenders, and trainer Sherri Leanne Laing sends her out with Christopher Roy Mamdeen up. She's the logical place horse and worth stacking in exactas behind the heavy chalk.

show7Counting On YouML 8/1

Counting On You brings a 64.60 TrackWiz rating and an impressive 37% career win rate — one of the strongest win percentages in the entire day's card. Jockey Shavon Townsend pilots for trainer Jared Brown, and at 8/1 on the morning line, this is a price that deserves attention in trifectas. She won't outrun Arikara, but a horse that wins more than a third of its races rarely runs completely out of the money.

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Bottom line for tonight at Assiniboia: the conditions are ideal, the pace set-up looks honest, and there are legitimate plays top to bottom on this card. Start with Sherlyn Go Go as the standout among the free races — a 90.00 rating at even money in the third is a solid anchor for early exotics. Then let our premium analysis guide you through the loaded back half of the card, headlined by Arikara and Banker Matt. Full card breakdowns, pace maps, and exotic tickets are waiting for subscribers. Good luck tonight — let's cash some tickets.

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