Daily Picks

Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — July 1, 2026

Wednesday, July 1, 20268 racesAssiniboia

Happy Canada Day from Assiniboia Downs — and what better way to celebrate than with a full 8-race dirt card under partly cloudy skies and a pleasant 69°F. Conditions look ideal for fast times, with no rain in the picture to compromise the surface. Expect honest fractions and a track that should play fair from rail to outside.

The card is a mix of claiming company and allowance optional claiming, which means there's genuine class movement up and down the ladder all afternoon. That creates opportunities — horses dropping into softer spots, horses testing new waters — and our TrackWiz models have been busy sorting the contenders from the pretenders. Eight races, a handful of standout angles, and at least one overlay we think the public will underestimate.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A claiming opener with a clear TrackWiz ratings gap at the top, but the morning line has the favorite priced below our top-rated horse — creating an interesting overlay situation right out of the gate.

win5TwolefttoloadML 2/1

Twolefttoload sits atop our ratings at 88.54 and carries a 25% career win rate, which is strong for the claiming ranks. Trainer Michael Nault sends out a horse that figures to handle the 6-fur dirt distance, and jockey Antonio Whitehall gives this a professional connection up front. The 2/1 morning line actually represents a fair price given the ratings edge over the field.

place6Mini Glazed DonutML 6/1

Mini Glazed Donut checks in with a 78.65 TrackWiz rating and also posts a 25% career win rate — matching the top selection on that metric. Trainer Tiffany Husbands also saddles the morning-line favorite, so she clearly has a live barn today. At 6/1, there's genuine place value here if Twolefttoload dominates up front.

show2He Knows We KnowML 8/5

He Knows We Know is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 with a 74.94 rating and a 21% career win rate — numbers that justify the short price. The Kerron Khelawan-Jared Brown combo is worth noting in a short field like this. If the chalk fires, he's likely hitting the board, making him a reasonable show anchor for exacta and trifecta players.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Switzler Jammin looks like a wire-to-wire standout in this 5-furlong sprint, but the question is whether the chalky favorite holds form or the pace setup creates a closer's opportunity.

win1Switzler JamminML 6/5

Switzler Jammin leads our ratings at 89.71 with a 30% career win rate — the best strike rate on today's full card. Trained by Elton Dickey and piloted by Antonio Whitehall, this horse has the tools to fire early and never look back at the short 5-furlong trip. The 6/5 morning line reflects a legitimate standout, and our analysis agrees.

place6Promise CodeML 2/1

Promise Code rates a notch below the top two at 66.04 but comes in at a juicy 2/1 morning line that offers place value in a race the favorite could dominate. The 9% career win rate is modest, but jockey Javaniel R. Patterson gives this a capable rider for the stretch. Keep Promise Code underneath in exactas — if Switzler Jammin wires them, this is the likely photo partner.

show3Cajun BertiML 6/1

Cajun Berti grades out at 65.27 with a solid 24% career win rate that quietly stands out in this field. Trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. and jockey Rachaad Knights are a familiar Assiniboia combination worth respecting. At 6/1, this is a legitimate show candidate and adds a fair amount of trifecta depth behind the two top picks.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open 6-furlong claimer where the morning-line second choice actually carries the lowest rating among the top contenders — this one could get scrambled in the stretch.

win5BorderlandML 4/1

Borderland heads our analysis at 74.23 despite going off at 4/1 on the morning line, which looks like a mild overlay. The Antonio Whitehall-Jerry Gourneau connection is one of the stronger trainer-jockey pairings on the grounds, and Borderland's slightly higher average speed figure of 53 gives a small edge in the pace department. In a race where the ratings are tightly bunched, that combo of class and connections tips the scale.

place3Amma Jaw DropperML 12/1

Amma Jaw Dropper is the most intriguing value angle in the race — a 73.96 rating buried under a 12/1 morning line, with a 33% career win rate that utterly dwarfs every other horse in this field. That strike rate doesn't lie, and trainer Ryan Desjarlais clearly knows how to get this horse ready to fire. If Amma Jaw Dropper fires close to her best, she's a legitimate place contender at a price that could pay handsomely.

show7Run Matteo RunML 3/1

Run Matteo Run slots in at 67.15 with a 12% career win rate and draws a 3/1 morning line that reflects a public horse with some respect. Trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. has solid representation across today's card, and Tyrone Nelson in the irons is a capable pilot. As a show hedge in trifectas, Run Matteo Run offers a fair blend of rating, price, and connections.

We're opening the card with three free best bets, and they set the tone nicely. Twolefttoload draws our eye in Race 1 — a 6-furlong claiming sprint where our rating of 88.54 makes this one of the stronger numbers on the early card at a very workable 2/1 morning line. In Race 2, Switzler Jammin comes in as the morning-line favorite at 6/5 and backs it up with our top rating of the free races at 89.71 — that kind of alignment between public opinion and our model doesn't always happen, so when it does, it's worth noting. Round out the free card with Borderland in Race 3, a 4/1 shot at 6 furlongs who our analysis suggests is live despite a modest 74.23 rating — the morning line price hints there may be more here than the numbers alone tell.

On a day like today with a firm, consistent dirt surface, pace scenario matters. Keep an eye on how the early speed holds up in those first few sprints — if the front-runners are getting home clean, lean toward pace-pressing types as the card progresses.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:50 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The allowance optional claiming label steps this field up from the straight claimers, and a pair of closely-rated horses at the top creates a genuine match race — with a longshot lurking at double-digit odds.

win7Beelieve HerML 4/1

Beelieve Her tops our ratings at 85.62 and goes off at 4/1 — a slight overlay relative to Dancing Raquel, who will be the public's choice. A 14% career win rate might seem modest, but jockey Damario Bynoe rides with purpose at this oval, and trainer Wendy Anderson has a horse ready to step forward. The extra furlong to 7 furlongs suits a horse with a 53 average speed figure who should appreciate the added ground.

place3Dancing RaquelML 2/1

Dancing Raquel is the morning-line co-favorite at 2/1 and rates a near-identical 84.04 on our scale — making this essentially a dead heat at the top. Trainer Mike Taphorn and Javaniel R. Patterson are a potent combination, and a 21% career win rate underscores the consistency. If Beelieve Her faces any pace pressure, Dancing Raquel is right there to clean up.

show1Starship ParadiseML 12/1

Starship Paradise is the show ticket here at a juicy 12/1 morning line, representing a genuine overlay for trifecta construction. The 63.67 rating is well behind the top two, but an 18% career win rate shows this horse knows how to hit the board. Trainer Jerry Gourneau doubles up in this race and clearly has confidence in this spot — that stable form is worth respecting when building your exotic tickets.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Calming Force sets up as a cut-above standout in this 6-furlong claimer, but a battle-tested field with multiple horses in the 70s rating range means the pace could get hot early.

win1Calming ForceML 3/1

Calming Force leads every meaningful category here — an 87.08 rating, a 28% career win rate, and a 54 average speed figure that ties for the field's best alongside Makena's Joy. Trainer Mike Taphorn and jockey Neville Stephenson combine for a horse that looks built for this distance. The 3/1 morning line is fair given the edge, and our analysis puts this squarely as the top selection.

place7Makena's JoyML 6/1

Makena's Joy matches Calming Force's 54 average speed figure and rates a strong 77.67, making this the most dangerous second horse in the field on pure figures. Trainer Demetris Topouzis sends out a 16% career winner who could easily stalk the pace and pounce late. At 6/1, Makena's Joy is a place overlay and a strong candidate to hit the board if the top selection faces any trouble.

show4J L CopperML 4/1

J L Copper checks in at 73.4 with a 27% career win rate — one of the better lifetime strike rates on today's card. The Antonio Whitehall-Jared Brown combo has already appeared on the card today, and Brown's horses tend to fire regularly at Assiniboia. Show backers and trifecta builders should keep J L Copper on their tickets at 4/1.

Race 6

2:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Two horses rated nearly identically at the top of a seven-furlong claimer — She's My Niece and Peterson Landing are separated by less than a point, setting up a thriller in the stretch.

win8She's My NieceML 2/1

She's My Niece leads the field on TrackWiz ratings at 85.89 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 to back it up. A 13% career win rate may not scream powerhouse, but the 53 average speed figure and a strong pilot in Antonio Whitehall suggest a horse operating at a high level right now. Seven furlongs is a distance where tactical pace matters, and Whitehall has the experience to position this one perfectly.

place3Peterson LandingML 9/2

Peterson Landing is essentially a dead-heat with our top pick at 84.90 on the ratings — and goes off at 9/2, making this a mild overlay on a horse that could just as easily win. Trainer Michael Nault sends this out with Javaniel R. Patterson, a booking that signals strong intent. If She's My Niece gets caught up in early pace, Peterson Landing is perfectly set up to run her down.

show5Sherlyn Go GoML 4/1

Sherlyn Go Go at 4/1 brings a 79.01 rating and a field-best 26% career win rate into a race where the top two could burn each other up. Trainer Wendy Anderson has multiple runners on the card today, and Kerron Khelawan is among the more active jockeys at this meet. A horse who wins more than a quarter of her races deserves a place in every trifecta ticket at this price.

Race 7

3:05 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A big ten-horse allowance optional claiming field going a mile, where the top of the ratings has a clear leader — but there's a sneaky value play lurking at 8/1 that could make this trifecta very interesting.

win5ClassicoML 2/1

Classico dominates the ratings at 87.47 and heads to post at a reasonable 2/1 morning line. A 22% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure point to a horse operating consistently at the top of his game. Antonio Whitehall for trainer Michael Nault is as reliable a connection as you'll find at Assiniboia, and the route distance of a full mile should suit a horse with these kind of figures.

place6Valley VictoryML 8/1

Valley Victory rates at 79.79 — a strong second in this group — and presents as a genuine overlay at 8/1 given the rating. The 15% career win rate is decent in a route, and trainer Carl Norman Anderson typically has his horses fit when they show up in this condition. Shavon Townsend in the irons gives this a jockey who knows the oval, and if Classico draws the pace pressure, Valley Victory is positioned to roll late.

show7Bati KingML 3/1

Bati King at 3/1 checks in at 77.44 with a 20% career win rate — respectable numbers at any level. Trainer Wendy Anderson has been active across the card today and knows how to spot a horse in the right spot, and Tyrone Nelson is a capable rider for a route. As a show anchor, Bati King adds a reliable floor to trifecta tickets and is well worth including at a fair morning-line price.

Race 8

3:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

A sprawling ten-horse claimer over the unique 7.5-furlong distance, with a clear ratings leader facing a morning-line favorite that the public will back hard — this is where the TrackWiz edge shows up.

win7Wicked RoseML 3/1

Wicked Rose tops our ratings at 87.08 and ships in at 3/1 — notably longer than Hey Big Un, who the morning line sends off at 8/5. That's the value angle here: our top-rated horse in the race is not the chalk. Trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey Sheldon Chickeness combine for a horse with a 25% career win rate and a 52 average speed figure that should handle the 7.5-furlong test. Backing the TrackWiz number over the crowd is the play.

place8Hey Big UnML 8/5

Hey Big Un is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 with a 77.35 rating and a 21% career win rate that justifies public respect. Trainer Steve Keplin Jr. and Damario Bynoe give this a competent team, and an average speed figure of 53 puts this horse in the mix on raw figures. If Wicked Rose handles the pace, Hey Big Un should be right there on the board — use both in exactas.

show6Winston BlueML 5/1

Winston Blue at 5/1 holds a 61.88 rating and a 13% career win rate in a field where the ratings fall off sharply after the top two. Trainer Wendy Anderson saddles two horses in this race, showing strong confidence in the field, and Kerron Khelawan is a live rider who can find position in a large field. At a fair 5/1 morning line, Winston Blue is the natural show anchor and adds solid depth to trifecta tickets.

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Eight races, a perfect summer afternoon at Assiniboia, and a card with real betting opportunities top to bottom. Our free best bets — Twolefttoload, Switzler Jammin, and Borderland — give everyone a starting point, but the full card analysis, exotic plays, and pace breakdowns for Races 4 through 8 are reserved for subscribers. If today's the day you want the complete picture, check out TrackWiz Premium and get in before post time. Good luck, and enjoy the racing.

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