Arapahoe Picks & Predictions — June 20, 2026
It's a warm Saturday afternoon at Arapahoe Park — 88°F under partly cloudy skies — and the dirt strip should be playing fast and true all day. Seven races are on the card, and the variety is real: a pair of maiden specials to kick things off, a couple of claiming contests in the middle, and a Stakes race headliner in Race 6 to anchor the card. Plenty to work with.
With heat like this, hydration isn't just a tip for the fans in the stands — it matters for how horses come out of the gate in the later races too. Keep an eye on how the early speed holds up as the afternoon wears on. A surface that plays fast early can get a little bit tiring by the back half of the card.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt
A wide-open maiden special weight sprint where no horse has a prior win on the books — TrackWiz ratings separate the contenders in what figures to be a competitive five-furlong debut showcase.
Leading You On draws our top rating in this field at 57.5 and gets the 5/2 morning line from the oddsmakers — a reasonable price for the most highly regarded runner. Trainer Ryan Kenney puts this one in position to fire fresh, and Larren Delorme is a capable pilot for a horse making its mark in maiden company. In a field where none of these horses have broken their maiden, the ratings edge matters, and Leading You On holds the clearest one.
Arizona Squeeze is right on the heels of the top pick with a TrackWiz rating of 56.67 and draws a competitive 3/1 morning line. Trainer Stacy Campo also saddles Coachlloyd'slegacy in this race, which tells you the barn is double-barreled and confident — and Arizona Squeeze is the stronger of the two by the numbers. Luis Ramon Rodriguez gets the call here, and in a race this tight, Squeeze offers real place value.
Champion Levi opens at 4/1 and carries a TrackWiz rating of 55 for trainer Mark N. Hibdon, who also has Gracie Baby in the field. Hibdon going two-deep in a maiden race is worth noting — he clearly likes his chances, and Levi's rating edges out Gracie Baby by over three points. David Cardoso gets the mount, and at 4/1, Levi looks like a sensible show anchor in exotics.
Race 2
Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt
Sophie's Heart looks like a dominant class standout in this maiden special weight route, carrying a TrackWiz rating nearly 30 points clear of the closest rival — but at 2/1, the real question is whether the price is right.
Sophie's Heart is simply in a different stratosphere here — her TrackWiz rating of 88.54 towers over Money Mitch's 59.91 and the rest of the field. Trainer Mark Jensen sends her out with Nathan Haar in the irons, and the 2/1 morning line reflects the market's awareness of her edge. Her average speed of 53 is middle-of-the-pack on paper, but it's the composite rating that sets her apart in a field where most rivals are clustered in the 47–55 range.
Money Mitch is the clear second-best in our ratings at 59.91 and matches the field's top average speed figure at 54 alongside Linchpin Russ. Trainer Russell Vicchrilli puts Luis Ramon Rodriguez aboard at 3/1, which is a fair price for a horse that should be sitting comfortably in second if Sophie's Heart dominates. He's a solid play-back in exactas with the top pick.
Linchpin Russ comes in at 6/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 51.67 and shares the top average speed figure of 54 with Money Mitch — so there's something here beyond what the morning line suggests. Trainer Ryan Kenney hooks up with David Cardoso, and at nearly three times the price of the favorite, Russ offers meaningful show value and a live exotic underneath. Don't ignore him in trifectas.
Race 3
Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt
No Soy Borracho brings the top TrackWiz rating into this five-furlong claiming sprint but faces a pair of solid rivals — Gutfield and Feist — that make this race more than a one-horse show.
No Soy Borracho tops the field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 and lands in the hands of David Cardoso for trainer Mark N. Hibdon, one of the barn's most reliable combinations on the Arapahoe circuit. At 3/1, the value is there for a horse rated more than 12 points above Gutfield, the second-best in the field. His average speed of 51 is modest, but the composite rating tells a more favorable story — this is the one to beat.
Gutfield checks in at a rating of 74.62 with an average speed of 54 — the top speed figure in this field — making a strong case that he could give No Soy Borracho a race on raw numbers. Trainer Kerry Kemper sends him out at 5/2, and Brandon Mendez Guevara is an active hand at Arapahoe. If No Soy Borracho has any issues from the gate or in traffic, Gutfield has the turn of foot to capitalize.
Feist opens as the 2/1 morning line favorite despite coming in third in our ratings at 70.46, which is an interesting disconnect worth noting. With a 10% career win rate — the best in this field — trainer Kayla Warren clearly has a consistent runner, and Larren Delorme knows how to get horses home. She's a bit of a conflicting signal: higher odds implied by TrackWiz ratings, lower odds implied by the public, so she rounds out the show position as a hedge.
Three races are open to everyone today, and they cover a nice spread of the card. Leading You On draws our top nod in the opener — a maiden special weight sprint at 5 furlongs where first-time angles and pace shape matter most. Sophie's Heart steps up to 7 furlongs in Race 2 and carries an impressive TrackWiz rating of 88.54, which puts her among the top-rated horses on the entire card. Then in Race 3, No Soy Borracho takes on a claiming field at 5 furlongs — a pace-centric dash where our analysis likes the positional setup at 3/1 morning line.
The connecting thread across these free picks is pace. All three of today's top free selections project favorably in how the early fractions should set up for them. On a day where the dirt is likely to be fast and speed-friendly, that's not a coincidence — it's an edge worth leaning into.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line for today: the free card gives you three pace-positive plays with real upside, led by Sophie's Heart and No Soy Borracho. The premium card delivers a Stakes headliner in It's Notmyproblem and a deep closer look at every remaining race. It's a tight, action-packed seven-race card on a fast Arapahoe afternoon — the kind of day where good handicapping pays off. Full analysis is available to TrackWiz subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there.