Zia Park Picks & Predictions — November 6, 2026

American Chimes rates second in the field at 84.9 and clocks the third-best recent race speed at 11.58 sec/furlong. She's won 12% of her career starts and placed in 37% of them — solid numbers in this company. The class relief from $10,000 to $7,500 fits the same angle as the win pick, and her 15.8% sim win share puts her comfortably in the exacta conversation. Use her underneath One Oh Too and as a potential upset play on top.

Suspiciously Hot leads the entire field in recent race speed at 11.34 sec/furlong — a meaningful edge in a 350-yard sprint where early velocity is everything. She's also dropping in class and rates third overall at 82.77. The red flags: zero placings in three tries at exactly 350 yards, and she's one of three horses skipping Lasix while nine rivals use it. That speed number keeps her in the mix for exotics, but the distance and medication concerns are worth noting.

Candy Baby rates second overall at 73.74 and clocks the second-fastest recent speed figure at 11.26 sec/furlong — just a tick behind our top pick. The concern is a thin in-the-money rate of just two placings in nine sprint and dirt starts, suggesting she's been close but hasn't converted. If the pace between the top two gets competitive early, Candy Baby could emerge on the back end, and her 2/1 morning line reflects legitimate public interest.

My Lady in Lights earns the third-best recent speed figure in this race at 11.41 sec/furlong and ranks third in TrackWiz rating at 73.01. She's placed in 30% of her career starts, and jockey Gabriel Medrano is a B+ — above average for this level. The main concern is she's skipping Lasix while nine rivals use it, which can be a flag in quarter horse races. At 5/1 on the morning line, she's worth including in trifectas as a live show horse.

Jaw Breakker rates second in the field at 63.4 and clocks the third-best recent speed figure at 11.45 sec/furlong. The Enriquez/Wilson jockey-trainer combination is a known quantity — 20% wins and 58% in the money over the past year together. The concern is legitimate: he's out of the money in his last three starts and placed in just one of four sprint races. Still, the speed is there and the connections are sharp enough to keep him on the place end of the ticket.

Breviloquent is the value play in the exotics at 20/1 on the morning line. She's placed in four of her last four starts — the best current form streak in this race — and has hit the board in five of seven dirt starts. The jockey/trainer combination of Oscar Andrade Jr. and David Gomez-Barraza has a 22% win rate and 59% in-the-money rate over the past year together. At those odds, she's a low-cost trifecta inclusion who comes in with real momentum.

Fire Breather is a strikingly consistent performer: she's placed in nine of ten dirt starts and has hit the board in five of her last six races — an in-the-money rate of 90% that is simply elite. She also leads the field in recent race speed at 11.47 sec/furlong and carries a 40% career win rate. Trainer Timothy Mark Gleason earns an A grade. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's some value here for a horse whose form profile is arguably the strongest in the race.

Hondo Hocks is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and deserves respect for his distance mastery — three wins and eight in-the-money finishes in ten starts at exactly 870 yards. He's placed in four of his last six starts and has a 55% career in-the-money rate. The concern is the recent speed figure ranked ninth in the field, which is a yellow flag for a horse going against two rivals with sharper clockings. Use him as a show hedge and as the meat of your exacta boxes.

Noquit Inhim rates second in the field at 74.8 and brings a strong all-around profile: seven placings in twelve dirt starts, four in-the-money finishes in his last six races, and three of four at the 400-yard distance. The Edgar Martinez/Angel Dominguez combination is one of the stronger trainer-jockey duos on the card, both earning A grades. At 6/1, there's genuine value on the place end for a horse with proven distance form.

Regarding Jess owns the fastest recent race speed figure in this race at 10.99 sec/furlong — clocking the top number in the field — and has placed in three of his last five starts with a 57% career in-the-money rate. He's won at a 14% clip overall and shows one win and four placings in seven dirt starts. At 10/1 on the morning line, he's the best value play in the show spot and deserves trifecta inclusion — if the pace sets up honest, that top speed figure could be the decisive edge.

Karmas a Chick is a Zia Park specialist — one win and two in-the-money finishes in just two tries at this track — and pairs the sharp A-/A- Enriquez/Wilson combination. She's placed in ten of eighteen dirt starts with an 11% career win rate. The jockey-trainer duo posts a 20% win rate and 58% in-the-money rate over the past year together, a consistent edge. At 4/1, she's a legitimate place play with a strong local record backing her up.

Runaway Stripper is the value play in the show position at 10/1 morning line. She leads the entire field in recent race speed at 11.33 sec/furlong — the fastest clockings in this race — and comes in off back-to-back placings with four in the money over her last six starts. The concern is a jockey/horse combo that has hit the board in just 19% of their races together, which tempers enthusiasm slightly. But that speed figure alone makes her worth including in trifectas at double-digit odds.

Jes Relentless rates second in the field at 75.91 and comes in off three straight in-the-money finishes. Trainer Heber Deyta-Melendez earns an A grade, and the jockey-trainer combination of Brian Cobos Barraza and Deyta-Melendez has a 23% win rate and 70% in-the-money rate over the past year — one of the strongest combined numbers on tonight's card. With a 21% career win rate and 56% in-the-money rate across 23 dirt starts, she's a seasoned performer worth backing on the place end.

Post Time Favorite checks in third overall at 69.88 and brings a hot current form streak — four consecutive in-the-money finishes coming in. The Andrade/Gomez-Barraza combination posts a 22% win rate and 59% in-the-money rate over the past year, an above-average tandem. At 10/1 on the morning line, he offers legitimate value for a horse with a 25% career win rate, 62% in-the-money rate, and four straight placings. That's a show play worth making at those odds.

Gold D rates second in the field at 76.88 and leads the entire race in recent race speed at 11.20 sec/furlong — the top clockings in this sprint. She's placed in four of eight dirt starts and pairs jockey Jacob Enriquez (A-) with trainer Renee Wilson (A-), a duo that posts a 20% win rate and 58% in-the-money rate over the past year together. At 10/1 on the morning line, she's significantly undervalued relative to her speed and connections, making her one of the stronger value plays on the card tonight.

Palm Desert hasn't raced in 179 days, which could make her rusty — or it could mean connections are pointing her at this spot fresh. She's placed in three of five dirt starts and in two of three tries at the 350-yard distance specifically, suggesting the surface and distance are right. Her TrackWiz rating of 73.66 ranks third in the field, and she's won 17.25% of our simulations despite the layoff. At 3/1 on the morning line, the show play makes sense if you're building trifectas around the top two.