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Zia Park Picks & Predictions — November 3, 2026

November 3, 202610 racesAll Zia Park picks

Best bets at Zia Park today

Race 12Shiny ShoresML 5/12:05 PM EST

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Last 30 days at Zia Park: our top pick won 4 of 20 races (20%) and finished in the money in 12.

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Shiny Shores is our best bet among today's free races — a 5/1 morning line shot in Race 1's 5-furlong claiming sprint who leads the field with the fastest recent race speed at 12.06 sec/furlong and has hit the board in four straight. That kind of consistency at a price is exactly what we're looking for to kick off the card.

Conditions couldn't be much better at Zia Park today. It's a clear Tuesday afternoon, 64°F, and the Hobbs, New Mexico oval is set for a full 10-race program entirely on the main dirt. When the weather cooperates like this, you typically get a fair, honest track — no excuses for connections, no guessing on surface biases.

The card mixes claiming, allowance, and maiden company from top to bottom, with a couple of standout allowance spots late and a loaded pair of Maiden Special Weight races mid-card that our sim models are very high on. There's legitimate value scattered throughout the afternoon, including a couple of double-digit morning line horses our analysis flags as live overlays.

Best Bets

Race 1

2:05 PM EST

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A wide-open five-furlong dirt claimer where the top-rated horse sits at 5/1 on the morning line — value is alive and well here, and the rating spread between the top four is tight enough to keep this one interesting all the way to the wire.

win2Shiny ShoresML 5/1

Shiny Shores tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 — a full five points clear of the second-ranked Running Bear — and backs it up with the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.06 seconds per furlong. She's hit the board in four of her last six starts, including four straight in-the-money finishes, which is the kind of consistency that wins claiming races. Jockey Enrique Portillo Gomez earns an A- grade here, giving this barn a strong rider-horse tandem. Our simulations had her winning nearly 22% of 10,000 races, making the 5/1 morning line look like genuine value.

place7Running BearML 8/1

Running Bear comes in as the second-ranked horse at 78.83 and clocks the third-fastest recent speed figure in the field at 12.09 sec/furlong — that's a tight cluster at the top. The Juarez-Cappellucci jockey-trainer combination has clicked at a 32% win rate and hit the board in 66% of races over the past year, one of the stronger stats on this entire card. The concern is limited recent form — only one in-the-money finish over the last six — but the connections and raw speed numbers keep him firmly in the exotics.

show5Reads Artful RunML 5/2

Reads Artful Run slots in third on the TrackWiz ratings at 68.14 and has done solid work at this oval specifically, posting a win and placing in two of three races at Zia Park. Jockey Francisco Amparan carries a 23% win rate and a 56% in-the-money clip over the past year, which is quality riding. The flag to watch: she's skipping Lasix when five rivals are using it, which can be a real disadvantage in a sprint, so keep her in the show spot and treat the exotics accordingly.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Shiny Shores22%
5Reads Artful Run20%
4Kentucky Dream18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 1 is the free look today, and Shiny Shores checks the boxes we always want to see in a short-field dirt sprint: top recent speed and a proven record of being in the mix late in the race. The 5-furlong trip is unforgiving — there's nowhere to hide — so pace efficiency matters, and Shiny Shores' 12.06 sec/furlong average puts her ahead of this field on that metric. At 5/1 on the morning line, the public isn't in love with her yet, and that's the spot we like.

With a fast, dry surface expected all day, horses that can sustain their speed through the stretch rather than fade should have a natural edge. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets across the card.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

2:32 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A ten-horse maiden claiming sprint full of horses still searching for their first win, with a juicy overlay lurking at the top of the TrackWiz ratings despite a morning line that screams longshot.

win2Dealin in CashML 8/1

Dealin in Cash sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 — a clear margin over the rest — and owns the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.14 sec/furlong. The dirt record is a real asset: she's placed in four of eight starts on the brown stuff, which stands out in a field where several rivals have zero dirt money. Jockey Luis A. Valenzuela has an 18% win rate and 52% in-the-money mark over the past year. She won 17% of our 10,000 simulations, and the 8/1 morning line looks like a significant overlay for the top-rated horse in the field.

place5Wash MoneyML 9/5

Wash Money is listed at odds-on (9/5) as the morning-line favorite and rates second on our model at 65.07. There's a class drop angle here — the claiming price dropped from $12,500 to $10,000 — suggesting connections want to find a spot. The concern is a spotty sprint record, placing in just one of four sprint tries on dirt, so the short price makes her a bit dangerous to back to win but reasonable to lean on for place coverage.

show3Texas Tech LegsML 6/1

Texas Tech Legs rates third in the field at 61.96 and clocks the third-fastest recent race speed at 12.19 sec/furlong — she fits the speed profile of this race. Her overall in-the-money percentage sits at 44%, which is quietly one of the better consistency marks in this field of maidens. The workout concern — ranked fifth at 13.00 sec/furlong last month — is worth noting, but she's live at 6/1 for exotic plays.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Wash Money21%
2Dealin in Cash17%
10List My Biz15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

2:59 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

One horse dominates this maiden special weight on paper — Gesara's rating gap over the field is enormous — making this one of the clearer top selections on the card, though the Lasix situation adds a wrinkle worth watching.

win6GesaraML 8/5

Gesara is the class of this field by a country mile, posting an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — nearly 37 points clear of the second-ranked Comfort Cash. The recent form is exceptional: she's placed in six of eight career starts on dirt, hit the board in her last two, and clocks the fastest recent race speed in this field at 12.15 sec/furlong. Six of her rivals are using Lasix and she is not, which is the one legitimate flag, but her dominance in every other metric is hard to argue with. She won 42% of our 10,000 simulations — an imposing number that justifies her 8/5 morning-line favoritism.

place4Comfort CashML 4/1

Comfort Cash ranks second in the field at 52.80 and carries a 42% career in-the-money percentage, the kind of consistency you want in your exacta underneath a heavy favorite. There are no flagged concerns in the data, and trainer Simon J. Buechler gets a solid B grade. At 4/1 on the morning line, she offers reasonable place value in a race where the top horse figures to dominate.

show5Top Shelf B BML 8/1

Top Shelf B B checks in third at 48.33 and gets the benefit of elite connections — jockey Luis A. Valenzuela is graded A and trainer Joel H. Marr is graded A-, a strong tandem for a maiden race. The layoff is notable at 155 days — she may just be looking for a race to find her footing — but that jockey-trainer partnership is the angle worth playing here at 8/1 for show tickets and trifecta coverage.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Gesara42%
4Comfort Cash15%
7El Cantador11%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

3:26 PM EST

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint with a clear top-rated horse who also happens to be among the most consistent horses in the field — but a couple of live rivals with strong pace figures make this more interesting than the morning line suggests.

win3Mark's Sassy GirlML 9/5

Mark's Sassy Girl tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.59 and has hit the board in a remarkable 85% of her career starts, including her last two races and six of seven lifetime tries on dirt. Jockey Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. is clicking at a 24% win rate and 59% in-the-money mark over the past year — a strong partnership. The one real concern is that her recent race speed ranks seventh in this field, so she'll need to run her race and have things set up right. She won 29% of our simulations, supporting her status as a deserving favorite at 9/5.

place2Right for YouML 10/1

Right for You rates second at 76.88 and posts the second-fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.89 sec/furlong — she should be close throughout. Her career dirt record is impressive: five wins and placed in 25 of 40 dirt starts. She's 7 years old, which is a legitimate concern, and she's skipping Lasix when four rivals use it, but at 10/1 on the morning line she's a significant overlay for what she brings to this field.

show1La Jolla BeachML 2/1

La Jolla Beach owns the fastest recent race speed in this field at 11.63 sec/furlong — if raw pace translates, she'll be a factor early. She's hit the board in four of her last six, and her dirt record shows five wins in 22 tries. The concern is zero in-the-money finishes in three Zia Park tries, so track bias or surface familiarity could be working against her. Still, that speed figure gives her a real shot at the show spot.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Mark's Sassy Girl29%
1La Jolla Beach19%
2Right for You13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

3:53 PM EST

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A full ten-horse claiming field at 6½ furlongs where the top-rated horse has been nearly unbeatable on the board lately — but she steps up in class, which is the pivot point the entire race turns on.

win6Mo Money MollyML 5/2

Mo Money Molly rates first in the field at 87.81 and brings a streak that's hard to ignore: she's hit the board in seven straight races and 10 of 12 lifetime starts on dirt. The fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.69 sec/furlong confirms she has the raw ability. The class increase from $6,250 to $7,500 is the concern to flag, and she's had only 23 days of rest when she performs better with 30-plus days. Still, winning 23% of our 10,000 simulations with that form profile makes her the clear top choice.

place3Your CallML 5/1

Your Call rates second at 82.39 and carries an eye-catching career win rate of 50% — in a field full of modest claimers, that stands out. Her jockey-trainer combination of Vazquez and Diodoro has clicked at a 22% win rate and 52% in-the-money mark over the past year. The caution: her recent race speed ranks ninth in the field, and she's posted only two of three dirt starts in-the-money, so she may need everything to go right — but the class and connections make her a solid place candidate at 5/1.

show7Julia's PromiseML 7/2

Julia's Promise ranks third in the field at 72.56 and has a genuine Zia Park affinity — one win and placed in three of four tries at this oval. She's also hit the board in her last three races and 16 of 28 career dirt starts, so the form is real. The only flag is a short 19-day rest when she prefers 30-plus days, which is worth watching, but the track record here makes her a reasonable show ticket and trifecta piece at 7/2.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Mo Money Molly23%
3Your Call17%
10Go Water15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

4:20 PM EST

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A claiming sprint that features the top-rated horse also carrying the steadiest recent form — but trainer Todd Fincher saddles two horses in this race, which makes the pace scenario and jockey choices worth unpacking.

win1Private EquityML 2/1

Private Equity leads all horses in this field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and backs it up with genuine consistency: she's hit the board in five of her last six races and sits at 2/1 on the morning line. Her recent race speed ranks second in the field at 11.85 sec/furlong, and her career dirt record shows two wins and placed in eight of 12 starts. Trainer Todd Fincher earns an A grade — among the better trainers on today's card. She won 27% of our 10,000 simulations, making her the most defensible favorite of the afternoon.

place7SmoothwhskygoindwnML 9/2

Smoothwhskygoindwn rates second in the field at 78.94 and owns the fastest recent race speed of any horse in this race at 11.63 sec/furlong — raw early pace is her calling card. Jockey Francisco Amparan is graded B+ with a 23% win rate and 56% in-the-money mark for the past year. The workout numbers are a mild concern — sixth-best in the field — but if that speed figure carries forward, she's a legitimate threat to run second or better at 9/2.

show4Stand Up GuyML 3/1

Stand Up Guy ranks third at 75.17 and has an outstanding record at today's distance — placed in five of six career tries at 6½ furlongs. The Fincher barn (A-grade trainer) conditions him alongside the win pick, which tells you connections believe in this horse too. His third-fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.24 sec/furlong keeps him in the conversation, making him a reasonable show bet and trifecta anchor at 3/1.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Private Equity27%
4Stand Up Guy19%
7Smoothwhskygoindwn18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

4:47 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight sprint where several horses are making early career appearances, speed figures are limited across the board, and the top of the market is tightly bunched — connections and workout data carry extra weight when race records are thin.

win8Boom Boom GoML 3/1

Boom Boom Go tops the TrackWiz ratings at 56.67 and brings the best recent form in this field: she's hit the board in both of her career starts, giving her a 100% in-the-money percentage. Jockey Luis A. Fuentes is among the best on this card — graded A with a 26% win rate and 62% in-the-money mark over the past year — and trainer Todd Fincher earns an A as well. She won 19% of our 10,000 simulations, and at 3/1, the combination of top form, elite connections, and the highest rating in the field makes her the play.

place6True to the TestML 7/2

True to the Test rates second in the field at 55.83 and comes from the Fincher barn — which, as noted above, is among the top operations on this card. She doesn't have race speed figures available, but trainer quality and a B- jockey grade keep her firmly in the mix. At 7/2, she's reasonably priced for a horse from a winning barn in a race where maiden form is limited across the board.

show7LooknfonobikiniML 4/1

Looknfonobikini rates third at 55.00 and gets elite pilot Enrique Portillo Gomez, graded A- here, aboard with no available speed figures — this is essentially a connections play in a thin-data race. Trainer Bart G. Hone earns an A- as well, so the barn is live. At 4/1, she's worth a place on your trifecta tickets as a horse from quality connections in a race where the form book has gaps.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

8Boom Boom Go19%
3Zactoattack16%
6True to the Test16%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

5:14 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Another maiden special weight with a dominant top-rated horse — Fruity Snack's rating gap over the field is substantial — but the Lasix situation is the conversation starter for anyone looking to go underneath.

win6Fruity SnackML 9/5

Fruity Snack is the class of this field at 88.83 on the TrackWiz scale — a 22-point gap over the second-ranked Hallie's Gal. The form is consistent: she's placed in three of four career dirt starts and hit the board in her last three outings, with the fastest recent race speed in this field at 11.99 sec/furlong. She's skipping Lasix when six rivals are using it — that's the lone flag — but the overall profile is dominant enough that she won 33% of our 10,000 simulations. Hard to make a case against her.

place5Hallie's GalML 8/1

Hallie's Gal rates second at 66.49 and has the third-fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.44 sec/furlong, with back-to-back in-the-money finishes heading into today. Her overall in-the-money percentage of 44% is solid for a maiden, and trainer Lonnie H. Vaughn earns a B grade. She's the most logical option to land in the exacta behind the favorite, and the 8/1 morning line makes her the kind of overlay that pays well if the top horse falters.

show1MahirML 7/2

Mahir checks in third at 57.20 and gets one of the best jockeys on today's card — Luis A. Fuentes, graded A with a 26% win rate and 62% in-the-money mark over the past year. The concern is limited recent success — just one in-the-money finish across his last five starts — and a sprint record that shows only one placing in five tries. The jockey angle is the case here; at 7/2, he's worth a spot on your trifectas if you believe Fuentes can get him home.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Fruity Snack33%
1Mahir14%
5Hallie's Gal12%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 9

5:41 PM EST

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A quality allowance sprint featuring several horses with strong career win rates and deep dirt records — this is a legitimately competitive field where the top rating comes with a strong jockey-trainer combo that only adds to the case.

win9AmorosaML 3/1

Amorosa tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and owns the most impressive overall profile in this race: a 50% career win rate, 81% in-the-money, and eight wins in 15 of 16 career dirt starts. That's a horse who knows how to finish. The Gonzalez-Eikleberry jockey-trainer pairing is quietly elite — a 35% win rate and 87% in-the-money mark over the past year, the best trainer combo stat on today's full card. The only flag is workout numbers ranked seventh in the field, but race-day form overwhelms that concern. She won 19% of our simulations at a very fair 3/1.

place4ItsmybirthdayML 5/2

Itsmybirthday rates second at 84.30 and matches Amorosa in career win rate at 41% — this is a legitimate rival, not a token place horse. Her Dirt record is excellent: five wins and placed in nine of 12 starts, and the Vazquez-Diodoro combination hits at a 22% win rate over the past year. She won 19% of our simulations as well, making the top two horses essentially co-favorites in our model — the exacta combining them at 5/2 and 3/1 is worth structuring.

show8ByeML 9/2

Bye rates third at 80.68 and owns the fastest recent race speed in this field at 11.68 sec/furlong — she'll push the pace early and could steal this at 9/2. The Amparan-Alberto Amparan combination has clicked at a 25% win rate and 56% in-the-money mark over the past year. The concern is zero in-the-money finishes in two Zia Park tries, and she's on the older side for the competition — but that raw speed figure is real, and she won 15% of our simulations.

We ran Race 9 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Itsmybirthday19%
9Amorosa19%
8Bye15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 10

6:08 PM EST

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The card closes with an allowance that has a standout — Thrilling Ride enters off a perfect 3-for-3 dirt record with the top speed figure in the field — and a 5/1 value horse who hasn't lost on dirt all year making for a strong closing double.

win9Thrilling RideML EVN

Thrilling Ride is the pick of the card. She tops the TrackWiz ratings at a perfect 90.00, clocks the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.55 sec/furlong, and owns a spotless 2-for-3 record on dirt with a 100% in-the-money percentage. A 66% career win rate tells you this horse knows how to win races. Jockey Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. hits at 24% wins and 59% in-the-money over the past year — a strong tandem with A-grade trainer Todd Fincher. She won 33% of our 10,000 simulations; the even-money morning line is fair value for what she brings.

place7Selective HearingML 5/1

Selective Hearing rates second in the field at 78.17 and carries the most compelling ancillary stat in this race: she's hit the board in all five of her career dirt starts, going 2-for-5 with no off-the-board finishes. Jockey Luis A. Fuentes is graded A with a 26% win rate over the past year, and her third-fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.69 sec/furlong shows she can run. At 5/1, she's the most natural place horse in the race.

show8ChivalrousML 5/1

Chivalrous rates third at 65.67 and carries back-to-back in-the-money finishes with four placings over the last six starts — genuine recent consistency. She's placed in nine of 15 career dirt starts, demonstrating she knows this surface well. The concerns are real: she's significantly older than the field average and is coming back on only 12 days of rest when she prefers 30-plus days. Factor those in and lean toward using her as a show ticket or deep trifecta piece rather than a standalone win play.

We ran Race 10 10,000 times. Most wins:

9Thrilling Ride33%
7Selective Hearing18%
8Chivalrous12%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Bottom line for November 3rd at Zia Park: Shiny Shores is the free play in Race 1, and the full card has plenty to get excited about in the back half, headlined by Thrilling Ride (Race 10) and a Race 9 connections angle that's hard to ignore. Clear skies, fair track, 10 races — let's make it a good one. Full analysis available to TrackWiz subscribers at TrackWiz Premium.

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