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Woodbine Picks & Predictions — September 26, 2026

September 26, 202611 racesAll Woodbine picks

It's a crisp, partly cloudy afternoon at Woodbine — 69°F and cooperative conditions that should keep the Dirt playing honest and the Turf course in solid shape. Eleven races spread across the card, with a heavy lean toward maiden action and a pair of claiming tests that could deliver some live price horses.

Today's card is maiden-heavy in the best possible way. Seven of the eleven races feature horses still looking for that maiden win, which means fresh form, unpredictable pace scenarios, and — for the sharp bettor — real opportunity to get underneath horses the public hasn't fully figured out yet. Don't sleep on Race 8, where our top pick Downtown Ro ships in at a tasty 9/2 morning line in a maiden special weight sprint.

The one turf race on the card — Race 5, a 6-furlong maiden special weight — adds a different dimension to the afternoon. Keep an eye on any late weather updates, but as of now, conditions look perfectly playable for grass runners.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming opener on the dirt at 5½ furlongs where two horses separate themselves on paper — the rest of the field is a significant step below the top pair.

win4AshukaML 2/1

Ashuka tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54, a number that stands well clear of the field in what is otherwise a modest maiden claiming affair. Despite a blank career win slate, that's expected in a maiden race — what matters here is the edge in our overall assessment. Trainer Kerron Palmer sends her out with Christoff Douglas in the irons, and with an average speed figure of 53, she's got enough early zip for the 5½-furlong trip. At 2/1 on the morning line, she's not a huge overlay, but the class advantage over most of this field is hard to ignore.

place7Wine MoneyML 5/2

Wine Money comes in with a TrackWiz rating of 81.10 — second-best in the race — and posts the field's top average speed figure at 54, a tick better than the win pick. Trainer Tony Michael Gattellaro has her in at a price (5/2 ML) that reflects public confidence, and Fraser Aebly is a capable handler for the short sprint. If Ashuka gets into any trouble early, Wine Money has the raw speed to push through.

show2Scottie's BarnML 6/1

Scottie's Barn sits third on the TrackWiz ratings at 52.48 and shares the 53 average speed figure with several others. The 6/1 morning line gives you decent value for a horse that projects as a third-best contender, making him a sensible inclusion in tri-bets and exacta savers. Jockey Desean Bynoe and trainer Devon Gittens are a familiar pairing at the meet, which adds a bit of comfort to the ticket.

Race 2

5:29 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A claiming route on the dirt draws a competitive seven-horse field, but one horse carries a meaningful TrackWiz ratings edge that makes this look like a race with a clear standout hiding behind a modest morning line.

win5Swan LakeML 9/5

Swan Lake owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.83 and is the only horse in the race priced at 9/5 — the market and our model agree this is the horse to beat. Ryan Munger pilots for trainer Edgar Mendoza, and with a 19% career win rate, Swan Lake brings proven ability to this claiming route. The 1 1/16-mile distance on dirt suits a closer-type profile, and with a field full of horses in the 51-53 average speed range, Swan Lake doesn't need a career best to win.

place4Alley Oop JohnnyML 4/1

Alley Oop Johnny rates second among horses with meaningful data at 70.62 and carries a 17% career win percentage — solid for a claiming level. David Moran takes the mount for trainer Pat Parente, and at 4/1 on the morning line, there's solid each-way value here if Swan Lake encounters any trouble in a seven-horse field. His average speed of 52 is in line with the pace scenario for this route.

show7Good SinML 5/2

Good Sin is the most interesting piece of the puzzle at 5/2 ML despite a rating of 63.44, primarily because that 27% career win percentage leads the entire field — this horse knows how to win. Pietro Moran and trainer William Tharrenos have a live combination at a reasonable price. The slightly lower speed average of 51 raises a pace question, but a high win rate in claiming company suggests tactical savvy worth rewarding in the exotics.

Race 3

6:00 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A maiden optional claiming sprint on the dirt features a significant ratings gap at the top — one horse stands well above the rest, though a competitive group clusters just below.

win1AleatoricML 5/2

Aleatoric opens as the TrackWiz top-rated horse at 87.81 in this seven-furlong maiden, a figure that leads the field by more than 25 points. Trainer Dale A. Desruisseaux teams with Fraser Aebly, and at 5/2 on the morning line, Aleatoric is priced as a co-favorite — the model fully endorses that assessment. An average speed of 54 is comfortable for the seven-furlong distance, and in a race where most rivals are bunched between 53 and 55, the ratings edge is the decisive separator.

place3Pepper PatchML 2/1

Pepper Patch draws the morning line favorite's spot at 2/1 despite rating second in the field at 62.29 — that gap between her ML and rating is worth noting. Ryan Munger brings experience to the irons for trainer Catherine Day Phillips, and the 53 average speed is workable for this distance. She profiles as a horse who can pressure the lead and find the board even if she can't quite match Aleatoric's overall profile.

show4Chart the CourseML 7/2

Chart the Course is intriguing at 7/2 with a rating of 55.83 and the field's top average speed figure at 55 — pure early pace ability could put this Mark E. Casse trainee in a good spot from the break. Sahin Civaci gets the call, and Casse's operation rarely sends horses to the post without preparation. If Aleatoric and Pepper Patch get into a contested pace duel, Chart the Course's closing ability off a hot pace makes it a smart show-ticket inclusion.

Our three free best bets today span the first three races — a nice warm-up sequence to set the tone. Ashuka opens the card in the maiden claiming sprint at 2/1 morning line, backed by an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that leads her field. In Race 2, Swan Lake steps into the claiming mile at 9/5 and grades out as our highest-confidence play of the free trio — her 88.83 rating is sharp, and her distance suits a presser type on a Dirt track that's been rewarding horses with early position. Rounding out the free card, Aleatoric draws our eye in Race 3's 7-furlong maiden optional claimer at 5/2, a subtle class angle in a race where the morning line doesn't fully reflect her upside.

The through-line connecting all three free picks: none are heavy chalk, none are throwaway favorites. These are horses with real structural advantages in their respective races — speed figures, distance fit, and pace scenarios that all point in their favor. A good day starts here.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:30 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Another maiden optional claiming seven-furlong test on the dirt, and this one has a clear top figure but also a deeper field with legitimate speed scattered throughout — the pace setup makes this trickier than it looks.

win1BenkaML 3/1

Benka tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and draws the 3/1 morning line, a price that gives fair value for the class of the race. Pietro Moran rides for the respected Tino Attard stable, a combination that regularly produces results at Woodbine. The 53 average speed figure is modest relative to the field's top speedsters, which could mean Benka is better than she's shown in the lines — Attard horses often improve sharply in key spots.

place6Karat GoldML 5/2

Karat Gold rates at 58.48 and is one of two horses in the field showing a 55 average speed figure, which is among the best in the race. Trainer Steven Chircop sends her out with Fraser Aebly, and the 5/2 morning line reflects real market support. In a maiden race where early pace could be contested, her foot speed makes her a logical place contender behind the top-rated Benka.

show5Hot Gyal MossopML 7/2

Hot Gyal Mossop lines up at 7/2 ML with a rating of 55.83 and a 53 average speed — right in the heart of the field's pace cluster. Trainer Krista Cole and jockey Daisuke Fukumoto form a workmanlike combination, and in a seven-horse maiden field, a mid-rated horse with decent speed can sneak into the show spot without needing a career best. A good place to use her is in the show position of a 1-6-5 trifecta key.

Race 5

7:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Turf

First turf race of the card is a Maiden Special Weight six-furlong grass sprint, and with several horses showing zero average speed figures — likely first-time turf starters — unpredictability is baked in from the start.

win5OdenkirkML 2/1

Odenkirk draws the 2/1 morning line for the powerful Mark E. Casse barn and leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 58.33 — but this is a wide-open race where the top figure is lower than usual. Rafael Manuel Hernandez gets the mount, a jockey with solid Woodbine turf credentials. No average speed figure is listed, suggesting a potential debut or surface switch, which is typical for Casse juveniles whom he spots carefully for their first grass try.

place7Secured AssetsML 3/1

Secured Assets rates at 56.67 with the second-best mark in the field and shows the standout average speed figure of 56 — highest among all runners. Emma-Jayne Wilson's turf experience on this course is an asset, and trainer Blair A. Miller at 3/1 ML gives the horse a fair price. If Odenkirk underperforms on debut or surface switch, Secured Assets has enough raw speed to capitalize.

show8Buddha's DelightML 4/1

Buddha's Delight brings the top average speed figure in the race at 57 and rates at 55.00, making this Casse second-string entry worth a look at 4/1. Fraser Aebly rides, and the fact that Casse runs two horses in this race often means the barn has identified it as a winnable spot — Buddha's Delight could easily emerge as the stable's better representative. The 57 speed average is a meaningful number on a six-furlong turf sprint.

Race 6

7:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A six-and-a-half-furlong claiming sprint on the dirt features a legitimate pace battle shaping up between two well-rated horses, with the rest of the field trying to hang on late.

win7Pin BoyML 5/2

Pin Boy is the TrackWiz top-rated horse in the race at 87.81 and cuts back to a sprint distance that suits his 55 average speed figure well. Fraser Aebly pilots for trainer Richard L. Morden, and the 5/2 morning line reflects the public's agreement with our model. A 10% career win rate is modest, but in this field that number is eclipsed by the sheer size of his ratings edge over most rivals.

place6Ride for the PurseML 3/1

Ride for the Purse rates second in the field at 79.49 with a 13% career win percentage and an average speed of 55 — matching Pin Boy stride for stride on that metric. Emma-Jayne Wilson takes the mount for trainer Steven Chircop, and the 3/1 morning line makes this a legitimate place threat rather than a throw-in. If Pin Boy gets challenged early and fades, Ride for the Purse is poised to be there at the wire.

show2Isaac LeoML 7/2

Isaac Leo checks in at a 74.67 rating with a 54 average speed and 11% career win rate — third-best across the key metrics. Jeffrey Ian Alderson rides for trainer Richard L. Morden, which means the Morden barn has two horses in this race; barn confidence is split, but Isaac Leo at 7/2 is the more interesting betting option for show purposes. In a six-and-a-half-furlong sprint where pace can be volatile, a steady closer type with solid figures often steals the third spot.

Race 7

8:03 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A Maiden Special Weight route at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt features a clear top-rated standout, but second and third on the ratings list are legitimate enough that exacta and trifecta plays have real merit.

win3Sunday FineryML 2/1

Sunday Finery tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 — the joint-highest rating on the card today — and is installed as the 2/1 morning line favorite. Trainer James Bentley Begg sends her out with Sahin Civaci, and the 54 average speed figure is perfectly calibrated for a 1 1/16-mile distance. In a seven-horse maiden field where the gap between first and second on ratings is meaningful, Sunday Finery deserves strong single-up consideration.

place5MarchML 5/2

March rates second in the field at 77.27 and is trained by Mark E. Casse, arguably the leading barn at Woodbine — Emma-Jayne Wilson gets the call at 5/2 ML. A 54 average speed figure is consistent with the field's pace, and Casse regularly produces maiden winners who improve significantly off early efforts. March profiles as the most likely horse to run Sunday Finery down if things go sideways.

show6It Wasn't a BluffML 8/1

It Wasn't a Bluff carries a 68.29 rating and posts a 54 average speed, right in line with the field's top tier. The 8/1 morning line is where the value conversation starts — trainer Devon Gittens and jockey Desean Bynoe form a solid local combination, and a horse rated this high at double-digit odds deserves a show-ticket spot. In a maiden route where pace can stretch and close things out, this horse is a sneaky trifecta play.

Race 8

8:36 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

The six-furlong maiden special weight for fillies on the dirt has a fascinating dynamic — the highest-rated horse opens at 9/2 while the morning line favorite is rated notably lower, creating a potential overlay situation.

win6Downtown RoML 9/2

Downtown Ro tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 but opens at a generous 9/2 on the morning line — that's the kind of disconnect that makes TrackWiz analysis worth using. Ryan Munger rides for trainer Kevin Attard, and the 56 average speed figure is the joint-highest in the race alongside Lakota Lady. In a six-furlong sprint, that early foot matters, and the ratings gap between Downtown Ro and the rest suggests she's a legitimate standout despite being underpriced by the morning line.

place2Lakota LadyML 2/1

Lakota Lady is the morning line choice at 2/1 with a solid 79.54 rating — the second-best in the race — and also logs a 56 average speed. Pietro Moran rides for Blair A. Miller, and the combination has delivered at this level before. She's a deserving favorite in terms of public support, but the slight ratings gap behind Downtown Ro makes her the more likely place finisher in our analysis.

show1Fancy PearlsML 8/5

Fancy Pearls opens as the 8/5 morning line favorite and carries a 59.00 rating — notable because the market clearly likes her more than our model does. Trainer Josie Carroll and Fraser Aebly is one of the sharper connections at Woodbine, and Carroll has a history of delivering maiden winners at key spots. Even if the rating doesn't top the field, a Carroll-Aebly maiden on a six-furlong dirt sprint is a show bet you can make without flinching.

Race 9

9:09 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The nightcap sprint at 5½ furlongs on the dirt features the highest-rated horse in today's card — an overwhelming favorite who should dictate pace and terms if he breaks cleanly.

win1Mister BlueML 8/5

Mister Blue is a standout at 89.12 — the top TrackWiz rating on the entire card — and opens at a short 8/5 price that reflects how clearly the public sees it too. Fraser Aebly rides for Josie Carroll, one of the most reliable trainer-jockey partnerships at Woodbine, and the 54 average speed figure is ideal for a 5½-furlong dash. At this rating elevation over the rest of the field, Mister Blue is a virtual single in win wagering; the only real risk is a troubled trip.

place6Named FireyML 3/1

Named Firey rates second in the field at 63.29 and is trained by Darren C. Glennon with Romero Ramsay Maragh in the irons — a capable tandem at 3/1 ML. The 53 average speed makes him a pressing-type who could sit just off the pace and pounce if Mister Blue faces any adversity. While it's hard to bet against the top figure, Named Firey is clearly the best of the rest and a logical place play.

show4Happy to Be HereML 4/1

Happy to Be Here rates at 55.00 and shows a 54 average speed, matching Mister Blue on that metric — which at least tells you this horse belongs on the pace. Rafael Manuel Hernandez rides for trainer Robert P. Tiller at 4/1 ML, and a mid-field rating at a fair price makes Happy to Be Here a workable show ticket and a possible trifecta wheel underneath Mister Blue. In a seven-horse sprint, three spots fill fast if the top two hold.

Race 10

9:42 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The 13-horse Allowance Optional Claiming sprint at 6½ furlongs is the deepest and most competitive race of the day — experienced horses with solid win percentages throughout, and three closely-rated contenders make exotic wagering the play.

win12Bells of ParadiseML 7/2

Bells of Paradise leads the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and carries the field's standout career win percentage at 33% — meaning this horse has been here before and knows what to do. Fraser Aebly handles for trainer Josie Carroll, reinforcing the top-tier connection we've seen perform all card. At 7/2 ML in a 13-horse field, there's genuine value in betting a horse whose win rate and ratings place her comfortably at the top of this competitive group.

place5Bullet JournalML 4/1

Bullet Journal rates at 82.02 and posts a 16% career win rate, but the key number here is the consistent 55 average speed — she can run with the pace in a 6½-furlong sprint. Ryan Munger rides for Catherine Day Phillips at 4/1 ML, and Phillips-trained horses at this class level often run their best at Woodbine's fall meet. Second-best on the ratings with legitimate tactical speed makes Bullet Journal the most logical place key in multi-race wagers.

show4Charmingly EvasiveML 6/1

Charmingly Evasive rates third in the field at 79.71 and boasts a 25% career win rate for the Mark E. Casse barn — Emma-Jayne Wilson gets the mount at 6/1 ML. That win rate in allowance-level company is significant; this isn't a horse who just hits the board, she wins races. The 55 average speed matches the top tier, and in a sprawling 13-horse field, a Casse horse with a 25% win rate at a double-digit morning line is a show bet worth making.

Race 11

10:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The finale is a 1 1/16-mile claiming route on the dirt with a stacked top four — three horses rated in the 70s and 80s battle it out in a race where the morning line and TrackWiz ratings tell slightly different stories.

win5Balboni's CrewML 4/1

Balboni's Crew leads the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and draws Emma-Jayne Wilson for trainer Steven Chircop at 4/1 ML — a price that gives real value given the model's confidence. The 52 average speed in a 1 1/16-mile route suggests a closer profile, which often thrives when the pace is honest. A 7% career win rate is the one cautionary note, but the class of the rating says this horse outperforms that raw number.

place7Little ThonioML 5/2

Little Thonio rates at 82.04 with a 20% career win percentage — the joint-highest win rate among the top-rated horses in this race — and is installed as the 5/2 morning line choice. Christoff Douglas rides for Krista Cole, and that 20% win rate in claiming company is the kind of pedigree that shows up on the front end. At a slightly lower TrackWiz rating than our win pick, Little Thonio makes perfect sense as a place key.

show8Digital SecurityML 10/1

Digital Security opens at 10/1 with a 74.40 rating — fourth-best in the race — and a 53 average speed for trainer Steven Chircop, who also trains Balboni's Crew. Two horses from the same barn in the same race can mean a confident trainer, or it can mean one is the real play and one is a decoy. At 10/1, Digital Security is priced like the barn second-string, but the 74-point rating says there's a real horse here — and at double-digit odds with a top-four figure, the show spot is live.

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Bottom line: Woodbine is serving up a 11-race Saturday card with real value opportunities scattered across maiden and claiming company. Swan Lake is our most confident free play of the afternoon, Mister Blue headlines the premium side with the top rating on the full card, and there's a legitimate longshot angle in Race 8 with Downtown Ro at 9/2. For pace projections, exotic tickets, and the complete breakdown of every remaining race, subscribers have full access — head to /pricing to get on board before the first post.

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