Woodbine Picks & Predictions — September 26, 2026

Pepper Patch draws the morning line favorite's spot at 2/1 despite rating second in the field at 62.29 — that gap between her ML and rating is worth noting. Ryan Munger brings experience to the irons for trainer Catherine Day Phillips, and the 53 average speed is workable for this distance. She profiles as a horse who can pressure the lead and find the board even if she can't quite match Aleatoric's overall profile.

Chart the Course is intriguing at 7/2 with a rating of 55.83 and the field's top average speed figure at 55 — pure early pace ability could put this Mark E. Casse trainee in a good spot from the break. Sahin Civaci gets the call, and Casse's operation rarely sends horses to the post without preparation. If Aleatoric and Pepper Patch get into a contested pace duel, Chart the Course's closing ability off a hot pace makes it a smart show-ticket inclusion.

Karat Gold rates at 58.48 and is one of two horses in the field showing a 55 average speed figure, which is among the best in the race. Trainer Steven Chircop sends her out with Fraser Aebly, and the 5/2 morning line reflects real market support. In a maiden race where early pace could be contested, her foot speed makes her a logical place contender behind the top-rated Benka.

Hot Gyal Mossop lines up at 7/2 ML with a rating of 55.83 and a 53 average speed — right in the heart of the field's pace cluster. Trainer Krista Cole and jockey Daisuke Fukumoto form a workmanlike combination, and in a seven-horse maiden field, a mid-rated horse with decent speed can sneak into the show spot without needing a career best. A good place to use her is in the show position of a 1-6-5 trifecta key.

Secured Assets rates at 56.67 with the second-best mark in the field and shows the standout average speed figure of 56 — highest among all runners. Emma-Jayne Wilson's turf experience on this course is an asset, and trainer Blair A. Miller at 3/1 ML gives the horse a fair price. If Odenkirk underperforms on debut or surface switch, Secured Assets has enough raw speed to capitalize.

Buddha's Delight brings the top average speed figure in the race at 57 and rates at 55.00, making this Casse second-string entry worth a look at 4/1. Fraser Aebly rides, and the fact that Casse runs two horses in this race often means the barn has identified it as a winnable spot — Buddha's Delight could easily emerge as the stable's better representative. The 57 speed average is a meaningful number on a six-furlong turf sprint.

Ride for the Purse rates second in the field at 79.49 with a 13% career win percentage and an average speed of 55 — matching Pin Boy stride for stride on that metric. Emma-Jayne Wilson takes the mount for trainer Steven Chircop, and the 3/1 morning line makes this a legitimate place threat rather than a throw-in. If Pin Boy gets challenged early and fades, Ride for the Purse is poised to be there at the wire.

Isaac Leo checks in at a 74.67 rating with a 54 average speed and 11% career win rate — third-best across the key metrics. Jeffrey Ian Alderson rides for trainer Richard L. Morden, which means the Morden barn has two horses in this race; barn confidence is split, but Isaac Leo at 7/2 is the more interesting betting option for show purposes. In a six-and-a-half-furlong sprint where pace can be volatile, a steady closer type with solid figures often steals the third spot.

March rates second in the field at 77.27 and is trained by Mark E. Casse, arguably the leading barn at Woodbine — Emma-Jayne Wilson gets the call at 5/2 ML. A 54 average speed figure is consistent with the field's pace, and Casse regularly produces maiden winners who improve significantly off early efforts. March profiles as the most likely horse to run Sunday Finery down if things go sideways.

It Wasn't a Bluff carries a 68.29 rating and posts a 54 average speed, right in line with the field's top tier. The 8/1 morning line is where the value conversation starts — trainer Devon Gittens and jockey Desean Bynoe form a solid local combination, and a horse rated this high at double-digit odds deserves a show-ticket spot. In a maiden route where pace can stretch and close things out, this horse is a sneaky trifecta play.

Lakota Lady is the morning line choice at 2/1 with a solid 79.54 rating — the second-best in the race — and also logs a 56 average speed. Pietro Moran rides for Blair A. Miller, and the combination has delivered at this level before. She's a deserving favorite in terms of public support, but the slight ratings gap behind Downtown Ro makes her the more likely place finisher in our analysis.

Fancy Pearls opens as the 8/5 morning line favorite and carries a 59.00 rating — notable because the market clearly likes her more than our model does. Trainer Josie Carroll and Fraser Aebly is one of the sharper connections at Woodbine, and Carroll has a history of delivering maiden winners at key spots. Even if the rating doesn't top the field, a Carroll-Aebly maiden on a six-furlong dirt sprint is a show bet you can make without flinching.

Named Firey rates second in the field at 63.29 and is trained by Darren C. Glennon with Romero Ramsay Maragh in the irons — a capable tandem at 3/1 ML. The 53 average speed makes him a pressing-type who could sit just off the pace and pounce if Mister Blue faces any adversity. While it's hard to bet against the top figure, Named Firey is clearly the best of the rest and a logical place play.

Happy to Be Here rates at 55.00 and shows a 54 average speed, matching Mister Blue on that metric — which at least tells you this horse belongs on the pace. Rafael Manuel Hernandez rides for trainer Robert P. Tiller at 4/1 ML, and a mid-field rating at a fair price makes Happy to Be Here a workable show ticket and a possible trifecta wheel underneath Mister Blue. In a seven-horse sprint, three spots fill fast if the top two hold.

Bullet Journal rates at 82.02 and posts a 16% career win rate, but the key number here is the consistent 55 average speed — she can run with the pace in a 6½-furlong sprint. Ryan Munger rides for Catherine Day Phillips at 4/1 ML, and Phillips-trained horses at this class level often run their best at Woodbine's fall meet. Second-best on the ratings with legitimate tactical speed makes Bullet Journal the most logical place key in multi-race wagers.

Charmingly Evasive rates third in the field at 79.71 and boasts a 25% career win rate for the Mark E. Casse barn — Emma-Jayne Wilson gets the mount at 6/1 ML. That win rate in allowance-level company is significant; this isn't a horse who just hits the board, she wins races. The 55 average speed matches the top tier, and in a sprawling 13-horse field, a Casse horse with a 25% win rate at a double-digit morning line is a show bet worth making.

Little Thonio rates at 82.04 with a 20% career win percentage — the joint-highest win rate among the top-rated horses in this race — and is installed as the 5/2 morning line choice. Christoff Douglas rides for Krista Cole, and that 20% win rate in claiming company is the kind of pedigree that shows up on the front end. At a slightly lower TrackWiz rating than our win pick, Little Thonio makes perfect sense as a place key.

Digital Security opens at 10/1 with a 74.40 rating — fourth-best in the race — and a 53 average speed for trainer Steven Chircop, who also trains Balboni's Crew. Two horses from the same barn in the same race can mean a confident trainer, or it can mean one is the real play and one is a decoy. At 10/1, Digital Security is priced like the barn second-string, but the 74-point rating says there's a real horse here — and at double-digit odds with a top-four figure, the show spot is live.