Unlock the other 5 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.

The winner is in our top 4 picks 75% of the time, across 17 tracks.

Daily Picks

Free Thistledown Picks & Predictions for Today — October 2, 2026

October 2, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

Here's our expert breakdown of today's 8-race card at Thistledown. We've identified 3 standout races with strong plays — see our analysis below. Full card picks for all 8 races are available to TrackWiz subscribers.

3 Free Races Today at Thistledown

Race 1

4:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Liberate towers over this field on our ratings — significant gap back to the rest of the shortlist.

win4LiberateML 9/5

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 88.8 for Race 1. Career win rate of 30% shows consistency. Ridden by Rocco Bowen, trained by Timothy E. Hamm. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.40 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 22% win rate and finished in the money in 63% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 70% of races. 12 wins and placed in 24 of 37 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 2 races. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races. Has 5 wins and placed in 9 of 10 races at 5 1/2 fur. 6 wins and placed in 12 of 17 races at Thistledown. Jockey & Horse combo has a 22% win rate and finished in the money in 63% of races. Claiming Price Decreased from $16000 to $7500. More than 1 win on today's surface/distance. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

place1CondemnationML 5/1

Rating board at 74.4. Ridden by Victor R. Fernandez. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.25 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 58% of races.

show7ZakariaML 6/1

Rating board at 59.9. Ridden by Chelsey Keiser. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.41 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 50% of races.

Race 2

4:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Bet-down spot for Vespera — the rating gap is wide enough that we treat this as a key single.

win4VesperaML 2/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 88.5 for Race 2. Ridden by Luis Raul Rivera, trained by Jeffrey A. Radosevich. For past year, Jockey has a 22% win rate and finished in the money in 61% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 21% win rate and finished in the money in 65% of races. 3 wins and placed in 11 of 16 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 2 races. Has 2 wins and placed in 6 of 9 races at 1 mi. 2 wins and placed in 9 of 12 races at Thistledown. Jockey & Horse combo has a 22% win rate and finished in the money in 61% of races. More than 1 win on today's surface/distance. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

place5Candlelight HoursML 9/5

Rating board at 87.6 • 41% career wins. Ridden by T. D. Houghton. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.30 sec/furlong. 16 wins and placed in 36 of 38 races on Dirt tracks.

show6LionisticML 3/1

Rating board at 82.2 • 31% career wins. Ridden by Jose A. Bracho. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.60 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 23% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races.

Race 3

5:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Standout on paper: Khali J grades multiple points clear of the rest of the field.

win2Khali JML 4/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 85.6 for Race 3. Career win rate of 33% shows consistency. Ridden by Fernando Salazar Becerra, trained by Ivan Vazquez. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.52 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 18% win rate and finished in the money in 54% of races. 3 wins and placed in 8 of 9 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 4 races. Has placed in 5 of the last 6 races. Has 3 wins and placed in 8 of 9 of Sprint races. 3 wins and placed in 5 of 5 races at Thistledown. Ranked 2nd in workouts over last month at 12.30 sec/furlong. Horse won last time it raced. 09/09/2026. Horse won last time raced at today's surface/distance.

place5Dos AmoresML 5/2

Rating board at 85.3. Ridden by Luis Raul Rivera. For past year, Jockey has a 22% win rate and finished in the money in 61% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 64% of races.

show6IthinkiloveyouML 5/1

Rating board at 60.6. Ridden by Rocco Bowen. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.59 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 22% win rate and finished in the money in 63% of races.

Our top picks for today focus on races with clear edges in speed figures, trainer form, and track bias. These are the spots where we see the most value on the board.

Send me tomorrow's free Thistledown card before post time.

Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A favorite emerges on paper, but the gap is narrow enough that our full 3 should figure in the exotics.

win5MellifluousML 8/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 79.8 for Race 4. Ridden by Luis Antonio Gonzalez, trained by Kim A. Puhl. For past year, Jockey has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 71% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 37% win rate and finished in the money in 85% of races. 3 wins and placed in 15 of 24 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in 5 of the last 6 races. 2 wins and placed in 5 of 6 races at Thistledown. Jockey & Horse combo has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 71% of races. More than 1 win on today's surface/distance. Jockey appears in today's Top 50 Jockeys List.

place2Jimmy RulesML 2/1

Rating board at 78.8. Ridden by Jose A. Bracho. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.10 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 23% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races.

show4Brick AmbushML 3/1

Rating board at 78.6. Ridden by Luis Raul Rivera. For past year, Jockey has a 22% win rate and finished in the money in 61% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 21% win rate and finished in the money in 65% of races.

Race 5

6:20 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Without Objection looks standout with daylight to the rest.

win1Without ObjectionML 2/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 88.5 for Race 5. Career win rate of 27% shows consistency. Ridden by Luis Antonio Gonzalez, trained by Kim A. Puhl. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.04 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 71% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 37% win rate and finished in the money in 85% of races. 8 wins and placed in 20 of 28 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 3 races. Has placed in 5 of the last 6 races. Has 8 wins and placed in 19 of 25 races at 6 fur. 5 wins and placed in 12 of 15 races at Thistledown. Jockey & Horse combo has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 71% of races. More than 1 win on today's surface/distance. Horse won last time it raced. 09/16/2026. Horse won last time raced at today's surface/distance. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List. Jockey appears in today's Top 50 Jockeys List.

place6VdaytothetenaciousML 3/1

Rating board at 83.9 • 29% career wins. Ridden by Jose A. Bracho. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 11.94 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 23% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races.

show2Mr. Penny PincherML 5/2

Rating board at 79.3 • 22% career wins. Ridden by Chelsey Keiser. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 11.99 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 50% of races.

Race 6

6:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Her Own Shadow towers over this field on our ratings — significant gap back to the rest of the shortlist.

win4Her Own ShadowML 2/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 88.5 for Race 6. Career win rate of 37% shows consistency. Ridden by Luis Raul Rivera, trained by Jeffrey A. Radosevich. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.30 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 22% win rate and finished in the money in 61% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 21% win rate and finished in the money in 65% of races. 3 wins and placed in 5 of 8 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 4 races. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races. 2 wins and placed in 4 of 6 races at Thistledown. Jockey & Horse combo has a 22% win rate and finished in the money in 61% of races. Horse won last time it raced. 08/26/2026. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.

place3Queen KittyML 5/2

Rating board at 75.0. Ridden by Brandon Tapara. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.36 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 17% win rate and finished in the money in 49% of races.

show1Jilly Runs DeepML 5/1

Rating board at 67.8. Ridden by T. D. Houghton. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.65 sec/furlong. 2 wins and placed in 9 of 10 races on Dirt tracks.

Race 7

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Bet-down spot for Waves of Liberty — the rating gap is wide enough that we treat this as a key single.

win4Waves of LibertyML 7/2

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 86.3 for Race 7. Career win rate of 23% shows consistency. Ridden by Rocco Bowen, trained by Timothy E. Hamm. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.54 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 22% win rate and finished in the money in 63% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 70% of races. 5 wins and placed in 16 of 21 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 3 races. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races. Has 4 wins and placed in 10 of 14 races at 6 fur. 3 wins and placed in 9 of 12 races at Thistledown. Jockey & Horse combo has a 22% win rate and finished in the money in 63% of races. More than 1 win on today's surface/distance.

place3ColoryoureggsML 9/2

Rating board at 76.4 • 26% career wins. Ridden by Victor R. Fernandez. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.35 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 58% of races.

show2Spun in DominusML 6/1

Rating board at 73.8 • 44% career wins. Ridden by Jose A. Bracho. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.33 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 23% win rate and finished in the money in 60% of races.

Race 8

7:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Top horse rates a hair above the field, though our 3-deep shortlist all have a path to hit the board.

win7GamayML 3/1

Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 87.1 for Race 8. Ridden by Angel I. Diaz, trained by Johanna Urieta. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.76 sec/furlong. Placed in 3 of 6 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 2 races. Has placed in 3 of the last 5 races.

place1Florida GalML 2/1

Rating board at 86.4. Ridden by Victor R. Fernandez. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.75 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 58% of races.

show3VadoraML 5/2

Rating board at 86.1. Ridden by Luis Antonio Gonzalez. For past year, Jockey has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 71% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 37% win rate and finished in the money in 85% of races.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Good luck at Thistledown today! Remember to check back for live odds updates and follow us for real-time picks throughout the card. Subscribe to TrackWiz for full access to every race at every track.

← All Thistledown picks & predictions

You're reading 3 of 8 races free