Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 2, 2026

Axcel is the morning line favorite at 8/5 and owns a 12% career win rate — the best of any horse in this five-horse field. His 76.41 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the race, and with an average speed figure of 54, he's got the most tactical speed in the bunch. If Trouble Or Nothin shows at 8/1, Axcel is the natural companion in exacta coverage.

Runningonhighlevel posts at 2/1 and draws the second-highest rating in the race at 71.41, though a 9% career win rate over a mile suggests she can be a grinder rather than a brilliant type. The unusual trainer-jockey combo — Kirsten Swan in both roles — keeps things in-house, which sometimes signals a tight operation with a specific plan. She's the logical show leg in trifectas if the top two land.

Truest Air at 5/1 on the morning line is the second-highest rated horse in the field at 62.54 and posts an average speed figure of 52 — matching Dark N Dirty's speed number despite carrying a lower overall rating. Luis Raul Rivera gets the mount for Michael L. Rone, a trainer who knows this circuit well. At 5/1, there's real place value here if you're playing exactas or just looking for insurance.

Sweet Vivian at 2/1 is the second choice on the morning line with a 61.33 TrackWiz rating, putting her in a genuine cluster with Truest Air for second-best in the race. David J. Haldar rides, and the morning line suggests the market sees a tight battle for the minor spots behind Dark N Dirty. She's a reasonable show play or the bottom half of an exacta key.

Fall in Love at 4/1 is a sneaky-good place play here with a TrackWiz rating of 83.07 — second-best in the field and within striking distance of the top horse. Angel I. Diaz rides for trainer Justine Eder, and a 5% career win rate in what looks like a competitive spot doesn't scare us off the place ticket at these odds. She's the kind of horse who can sit just off a hot pace and pounce late.

Trotter draws post 1 with a solid 72.72 rating and the best career win rate in the field at 14% — that's the number that quietly stands out. Ricardo Feliciano rides for Shane Meyers, and Trotter's average speed figure of 55 ties for the highest in the race. Even at 3/1 he's not a big price, but the win-rate consistency makes him a reliable show leg in trifecta plays.

Sammy's Smile at 7/2 posts a 75.97 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win rate, which is the second-best win percentage in this field. Fernando Salazar Becerra rides for David Wolochuk, and the combination of a strong win rate and solid rating makes Sammy's Smile the most logical exacta partner with Wetzel. He's also the kind of horse who might steal a race if the favorite stumbles at a mile.

Relish the Ride brings the highest career win rate in this race at 26% — that's a significant piece of form that should not be overlooked despite a morning line of 8/5 that suggests the market already sees her. The 71.05 TrackWiz rating places her third in the field, but that win rate is a real-world indicator of a horse who knows how to finish. Jefferson Skerrett rides, and she's a solid show anchor who could easily outperform her position in the order.

Duo at 7/2 on the morning line carries a 76.74 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and Alexander Chavez handles the riding assignment for trainer Michelle Winters. The 8% career win rate is lower than some rivals, but the overall rating says the recent form is sharp, and Duo's pace profile as a possible stalker could put her in the right position when the race unfolds in the stretch.

Spectacular d'Oro at 6/1 is worth including in all exotics, starting with that eye-catching 28% career win rate — tied for the best in the field alongside Biscuits 'n Gravy. Victor R. Fernandez rides for David Wolochuk, and a horse with that kind of winning percentage asking a fair price of 6/1 deserves serious respect. The rating of 73.1 puts him comfortably in the mix for a share of the purse.

Salute the Ghost at 5/2 on the morning line holds a 57.5 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the race — and gets T.D. Houghton for trainer Richard J. Rettele, a combination worth noting. Without a logged average speed figure, there's some uncertainty about her exact form cycle, but the rating and the odds suggest she's coming in with an upside that the connections believe in. A strong place play in a spot where the top three on the morning line are the logical players.

Delta Marie at 7/2 rounds out the show picks with a 55.83 TrackWiz rating and draws Luis Antonio Gonzalez for trainer Kim A. Puhl. Like Salute the Ghost, there's no average speed figure on record, which adds some mystery but also hints at a horse whose best running may still be ahead. She's the kind of maiden who often outperforms her odds in trifecta plays, especially when paired underneath a dominant top choice like Native Lucci.