Daily Picks

Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 1, 2026

Wednesday, July 1, 20268 racesThistledown

It's a hot one at Thistledown. Clear skies and 90-degree heat are baking the Cleveland oval today, and that kind of scorching summer afternoon tends to firm up the dirt surface fast — worth keeping in mind as you build your tickets. Eight races are on the board, all on the dirt, ranging from sprint distances down to a flat mile in the late pick-4 sequence.

The card leans heavily claiming, which is Thistledown's bread and butter, but we've got a Maiden Special Weight and an Allowance race to open things up and give us a cleaner read on some classier stock. There's plenty to dig into here, whether you're playing the first few races or grinding through the full card.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear class standout tops this allowance opener, but a pair of mid-tier horses with similar speed figures make the underneath slots genuinely competitive.

win4Commissioner DML 2/1

Commissioner D is the most complete horse in this field by a wide margin — his TrackWiz rating of 88.54 leads the field by more than 15 points, and a 30% career win rate is elite at this level. Trainer Justin Radosevich also saddles Fortheloveofbonnie here, which tells you the connections are comfortable in this spot. At 2/1 on the morning line, Commissioner D isn't a value bomb, but the profile of a high-win-percentage horse in an allowance field with a dominant rating justifies him as the anchor of any ticket.

place3Lizzy's DreamML 3/1

Lizzy's Dream posts a 73.05 TrackWiz rating and draws a favorable 3/1 morning line that may drift a touch, creating quiet value underneath. The 9% career win rate is modest, but in a place role against this field, trainer Richard Zielinski's runner looks capable of hanging around through six furlongs on Thistledown's tight dirt oval.

show8Drill BlitzML 6/1

Drill Blitz is worth including in the exotics at 6/1. His 72.8 rating nearly mirrors Lizzy's Dream, and jockey Jefferson Skerrett gives him a competent pilot who knows this circuit. In a race where the top two in the ratings are the obvious top picks, Drill Blitz offers a bit of overlay insurance for trifecta players.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Frosty Paws ships in as the lone horse with a legitimate speed edge in this claiming sprint, but a cluster of mid-pack contenders could create a hot early pace that plays into closers' hands.

win9Frosty PawsML 7/2

Frosty Paws owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.35 and posts the best average speed figure at 55 — a full tick above most of the competition. Trainer Craig Sweeting and jockey Rocco Bowen are a pairing worth noting, and an 18% career win rate is respectable in claiming company. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's a touch of value here relative to the clear advantage the numbers show.

place5Thanks FrankML 5/2

Thanks Frank comes in as the morning-line co-favorite at 5/2 and backs it up with a 72.36 rating and a 19% career win rate. His average speed of 54 keeps him right in the pack with the top contenders, and trainer Michael L. Rone's horse figures to be competitive early, making him a solid place candidate even if Frosty Paws controls things at the front.

show2Bucket ListML 5/1

Bucket List at 5/1 is a legitimate show option with a 70.08 rating and an impressive 22% career win rate — the third-best in the field. Jockey Edgar Paucar gets a horse whose average speed of 54 keeps him in the pace conversation, and at 5/1 he represents fair value for exotics players looking to round out a trifecta.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

This short Maiden Special Weight field is dominated by horses pointed at a first career win, but the talent gap between the top two and the rest is substantial — the real question is how much you're willing to pay for the chalk.

win5Whiskey PointML 6/5

Whiskey Point carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.71 and the best average speed figure at 54, both of which lead this five-horse maiden field comfortably. Trainer Kim A. Puhl has clearly pointed this one at a spot she likes, and Luis Antonio Gonzalez picks up the mount. In maiden races, a dominant rating combined with the best workout-implied speed is about as much confidence as you can ask for — the 6/5 morning line reflects that, so the key is whether the pool builds value late.

place4Usain ThML 7/2

Usain Th is the most interesting underneath play at 7/2. His 79.43 TrackWiz rating is a meaningful second in the field, and he matches Kukuk on average speed at 53 while commanding a wider morning line. Trainer Nestor R. Rivera saddles both Usain Th and Kukuk here, which is worth watching — connections who double up often have a preference, and the wider price on Usain Th may reflect it.

show3KukukML 9/5

Kukuk rounds out the show slot with a 65.18 rating and a 9/5 morning line that makes him the second choice on paper. Also trained by Nestor R. Rivera, Kukuk's 53 average speed keeps him competitive, and he's a logical show anchor for trifecta players who want to stay with the barn. The overlap with Usain Th means the stable's horses could key each other in the exacta.

TrackWiz is unlocking the first three races for every reader today. Race 1 (Allowance) sets a nice tone — Commissioner D drew our highest top-line rating of the free portion at 88.54 and opens at a fair 2/1 on the morning line, making him a legitimate best bet without having to force value. Race 2 shifts to the claiming ranks with Frosty Paws at 7/2 — a touch longer, and a name to watch if you're looking to build out an early exacta. Then Race 3 brings us to the Maiden Special Weight, where Whiskey Point stands out with the highest TrackWiz rating of the entire free card at 89.71 despite opening as the heavy 6/5 morning-line favorite. MSW races can be tricky with unknowns in the field, but when the numbers are this clean, you take notice.

One thread tying these early races together: with the heat and a firm, fast surface expected, early speed figures should hold up well in these sprint distances. Horses that can secure position out of the gate and avoid wide trips are going to have a meaningful edge today.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses separate from a muddled claiming field with significantly higher ratings, setting up a likely match race at the top — but the secondary contenders are close enough to complicate exacta orders.

win8Rock the RedML 5/2

Rock the Red tops the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and posts a 54 average speed figure tied with several others but backed by a 15% career win rate. Victor R. Fernandez has the call, and trainer Robert M. Gorham's runner is priced at 5/2 on the morning line — fair given the rating edge over most of the field. In a six-furlong claiming sprint, a horse with this kind of rating separation typically makes his presence felt early.

place5Stay Thirsty AmigoML 6/1

Stay Thirsty Amigo is the value angle in this race at 6/1. His 80.48 rating is a clear second in the field, yet he's priced nearly double Rock the Red on the morning line. A 16% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure give trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich's runner a real shot at securing the place spot, especially if the pace gets contested up front.

show7Express CruiserML 6/1

Express Cruiser at 6/1 is worth including in the exotics with a 64.0 rating and a 54 average speed. Trainer Johanna Urieta's horse has logged a 12% career win rate, which is modest, but Deshawn L. Parker gets the mount and the price creates some show value in a race where the top two are obvious and the third slot is genuinely up for grabs.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A tight three-way battle headlines this claiming sprint, with the top two horses separated by less than three rating points — pace scenario and trip luck could be the deciding factor here.

win2Feeling EasyML 2/1

Feeling Easy leads our selections with an 88.11 TrackWiz rating and a 53 average speed figure backed by trainer Nestor R. Rivera, who also has a strong stable presence on today's card. Fernando Salazar Becerra takes the mount on the 2/1 morning-line favorite. An 11% career win rate is on the lower end, but in a tightly packed claiming field, the rating edge and the speed figure are what matter most over six furlongs.

place3Angel I'm NotML 4/1

Angel I'm Not comes in right on Feeling Easy's heels with an 85.62 rating and matches at 53 average speed, while posting a stronger 16% career win rate. At 4/1 on the morning line with Victor R. Fernandez in the irons, trainer Robert C. Cline's mare represents a legitimate place threat and could flip the exacta if the pace sets up in her favor.

show1Shes a StormML 7/2

Shes a Storm at 7/2 is the third pillar of this analysis with a 72.08 rating and a 16% career win rate — solid credentials in this field. Trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, who also has runners elsewhere on the card today, clearly spots horses well in Cleveland. Erik Barbaran riding from the rail adds tactical versatility, and the 52 average speed while drawing post one could mean she sets a manageable pace and hangs tough for the show spot.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A five-horse claiming mile features two horses that dwarf the rest of the field in the ratings — this looks like a two-horse race on paper, but at a mile on dirt, anything can happen with small fields.

win4Tiz MiaML 9/5

Tiz Mia posts the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.83 and combines it with a 25% career win rate — the best among the top contenders. Trainer Nestor R. Rivera continues a strong day at Thistledown, and Alexander Chavez has the mount at 9/5 on the morning line. The combination of elite rating, high win percentage, and proven distance capability at a mile makes Tiz Mia the standout selection.

place2Miss ClassifiedML 6/5

Miss Classified enters as the morning-line favorite at 6/5 with an 80.6 rating that puts her squarely in the top tier of this field. A 13% career win rate is modest, but trainer Benny R. Feliciano's runner has the speed figure — 53 average — to be competitive throughout the mile. The price makes her thin as a win bet, but as a place horse anchoring exactas with Tiz Mia she's very much in play.

show5Beautiful MandateML 4/1

Beautiful Mandate at 4/1 is a speculative show play in what is otherwise a binary race. Her 40.62 rating trails the top two by a significant margin, but trainer John Erdel's runner posts a 13% career win rate and draws a midfield post. In a five-horse field, show payoffs shrink but she's the most logical horse to fill out trifecta combinations if the top two run true.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses stand out dramatically above this claiming field at 5½ furlongs, setting up a fascinating head-to-head between a historically dominant win-rate horse and a nearly equal-rated rival — both at short prices.

win6Laketown EllyML 9/5

Laketown Elly brings a stunning 42% career win rate into this spot — by far the highest of any horse on today's card — and backs it up with the top TrackWiz rating of 88.83 (tied with Tiz Mia in Race 6). Trainer Craig Sweeting places horses well, and Luis Alberto Batista has the call at 9/5 on the morning line. That win rate is the kind of number that speaks for itself; this horse knows how to get the job done.

place2It's Browns TimeML 2/1

It's Browns Time comes in as the other short-priced standout at 2/1 with an 86.88 rating and a 33% career win rate that would lead almost any other race on the card. Trainer Robert Guciardo's mare has Chelsey Keiser in the irons, and the 53 average speed matches Laketown Elly. If the pace scenario scrambles things and Laketown Elly doesn't fire, It's Browns Time is fully capable of going one better.

show1Midnight GoddessML 4/1

Midnight Goddess at 4/1 completes the top three with a 72.29 rating and a 20% career win rate — well above the field outside the top two. Trainer Hugo Andrade's runner is on the board with Brandon Tapara riding, and the 53 average speed keeps her in the pace picture. In exotics, she's the logical bridge between the two chalk horses and the rest of the field.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A competitive one-mile claiming closer to cap the card, with a clear top two separated from a mid-tier group that could easily factor depending on pace — don't overlook the stalker types in this one.

win2KinderhookML 2/1

Kinderhook leads our TrackWiz analysis with an 88.54 rating and the best average speed figure in the field at 54. A 27% career win rate is outstanding and suggests trainer Shane Meyers has a horse that consistently gets to the winner's circle. Jose A. Bracho takes the call at 2/1 on the morning line, and over a mile on Thistledown dirt, the combination of top speed and proven winning ability makes him the clear top selection.

place7Oaks HoneyML 5/2

Oaks Honey sits second in our ratings at 81.31 with a 19% career win rate and a 5/2 morning-line price that offers fair value for a place ticket. Trainer Joseph M. Poole's mare has Ricardo Feliciano, who has multiple mounts today and knows the track. Her 52 average speed is a tick below Kinderhook's, but in a stalking role around a one-mile oval she could be perfectly positioned when it counts.

show4Into GoldML 9/2

Into Gold at 9/2 is a legitimate show contender with a 74.4 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate. Trainer Joseph P. Mahan's runner gets T. D. Houghton in the irons and has a 53 average speed that keeps him competitive with the main pace. The price is workable for trifecta players who want to place a bridge between the clear top two and the rest of the field.

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Bottom line: Thistledown's July 1st card is a solid mid-week opportunity with a few standout plays in the early going. Whiskey Point in the MSW and Commissioner D in the opener are the headline free picks, and Frosty Paws offers a touch of value in Race 2. The full card — including pace projections, exotic ticket strategies, and premium picks for Races 4–8 — is available to TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck, and keep an eye on that heat today.

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