Daily Picks

Thistledown Picks & Predictions — June 23, 2026

Tuesday, June 23, 20268 racesThistledown

It's a beautiful Tuesday at Thistledown — clear skies, 69°F, and a fast dirt surface that should have the speed horses loving life all day. Eight races are on the board, all going on the dirt, and the bulk of the card is sprinting at six furlongs. When conditions are this clean and the distances this uniform, pace dynamics become everything.

The card mixes allowance company with claiming action, giving us a range of competitive puzzles to work through. TrackWiz analysis has flagged some sharp angles across the card — including a couple of morning-line overlays that could offer real value if the pools play out the way we're expecting.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear class standout sits atop this allowance opener, but there's enough firepower lurking at mid-odds to make the exacta and trifecta interesting.

win1Distant GalaxyML 7/2

Distant Galaxy tops our TrackWiz ratings by a meaningful margin at 86.35 — that's a double-digit cushion over the second-best horse in here. Jockey Erik Barbaran gets the call, and at 7/2 on the morning line, the price is fair without being giveaway territory. The 16% career win rate is respectable for this level, and with an average speed figure of 54 — tied for best in the field — Galaxy looks built for this six-furlong dirt dash.

place6Total SilenceML 4/1

Total Silence (6) is the value layer in this ticket at 4/1 on the morning line. The TrackWiz rating of 79.29 ranks third in the field but the 7% career win rate suggests this horse runs well without always closing the deal — a classic place profile. Luis Raul Rivera is a capable hand around Thistledown and should keep this one involved throughout.

show2Blake JamesML 5/2

Blake James (2) checks in with a solid 73.87 TrackWiz rating and draws the morning-line favoritism at 5/2 despite ranking third in our model — suggesting the public sees something to like here. The 11% career win rate is modest, but at 5/2 the downside risk is manageable and this horse figures to be cycling the turn with a chance to hit the board in a race where pace could set up for closers.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite and our top-rated horse don't match up here — creating a genuine gap between public money and TrackWiz analysis that bettors should exploit.

win7Spun in DominusML 5/1

Spun in Dominus (7) is the standout in this six-furlong claimer despite going off at 5/1 on the morning line — a clear overlay if our 84.17 TrackWiz rating holds up. A 33% career win rate is elite for this level and screams horse who knows how to finish, not just compete. Luis Raul Rivera picks up the mount, a rider who's been active at Thistledown, and the 53 average speed figure keeps this one squarely in the mix on raw ability.

place1Lil BitML 6/1

Lil Bit (1) is the most intriguing place play on the board at 6/1 morning line — the price is generous for a horse carrying a 22% career win rate, which is genuinely strong. The 75.07 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field, and trainer Robert M. Gorham also conditions Race 1 winner Distant Galaxy, suggesting a stable in decent form today. Erik Barbaran gets the return call here as well.

show8Midnight GoddessML 5/2

Midnight Goddess (8) is the public choice at 5/2 and the second-highest rated horse in our model at 67.44, so there's real backing here for good reason. The 14% career win rate is average, but this horse's average speed of 53 matches the pace of most rivals and Victor R. Fernandez is a reliable pilot when things get tight in the stretch. A spot in the exotics feels safe.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Lady Lottie draws well off the pace in what looks like a pace-contested claimer, and she's the one horse in here whose ratings and connections give her a clear edge.

win4Lady LottieML 3/1

Lady Lottie (4) is the top-rated horse in this field at 87.08 — the highest TrackWiz score of the first three races — and her 26% career win rate backs that number up with real results. She goes as the second choice at 3/1 behind National Diamond despite being the stronger horse by our model, which is precisely the kind of situation TrackWiz is built to flag. Luis Raul Rivera, one of the busiest riders on today's card, gets the mount.

place3Tale of the LyonML 5/2

Tale of the Lyon (3) rates as the second-best horse in here at 68.53 and is worth including underneath at 5/2 morning line. The 15% career win rate mirrors Dolce Marie but the rating edge is substantial, and trainer Justine Eder has Angel I. Diaz in the irons — a jockey who's been popping up in multiple spots today. If Lady Lottie draws most of the early pressure, Lyon could sneak into second.

show5National DiamondML 2/1

National Diamond (5) gets most of the public respect at 2/1 morning line but only rates third in our model at 58.97 — that gap makes her a show-only play rather than a win bet. She does carry a strong 23% career win rate and jockey Luis Alberto Batista is a solid handler on dirt, so she won't quit. Use her to complete trifecta tickets but consider the 2/1 price too short for serious win investment.

Our three free races open the card with some genuine intrigue. Distant Galaxy tops Race 1 at 7/2 on the morning line — solid allowance company and a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 that gives us confidence at that price. In Race 2, Spun in Dominus is the play at 5/1 — a price we're happy to take in a six-furlong claiming dash where the pace scenario sets up favorably for a closer. Then in Race 3, Lady Lottie is the most compelling free pick of the trio: a 3/1 morning line backed by the day's highest rating among the free races (87.08). On a fast, consistent Thistledown surface, horses like her with strong early figures tend to wire fields before the closers can get organized.

The through-line across these three? All six-furlong dirt sprints, all on a surface that's playing fair and fast today. Front-runners with clean early fractions deserve extra respect in these conditions — keep that bias in mind as you build your tickets.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three horses are separated by fewer than five TrackWiz points at the top of this 5½-furlong claimer — expect a hot pace and a sprint to the wire between May Mayhem, Eagle Nest, and Ollie's Folly.

win2May MayhemML 7/2

May Mayhem (2) tops the TrackWiz board at 86.35 and gets Luis Raul Rivera — one of the card's most active jockeys — in what's shaping up as a three-horse battle at the front. The 17% career win rate is solid for a claiming route, and the 54 average speed figure matches the best in the field. At 7/2, there's still a little value here against a morning-line favorite that's actually rated lower by our model.

place6Eagle NestML 3/1

Eagle Nest (6) is the morning-line second choice at 3/1 and carries the most impressive career win percentage of any contender in this race at 32% — that's a horse who has consistently delivered when asked. The 81.77 TrackWiz rating keeps Eagle Nest firmly in the mix, and trainer Marco Ibarra also conditions Roll On Big O in this same race, so the barn has options and clearly likes the matchup. Erik Barbaran pilots, which is a confident booking.

show3Ollie's FollyML 5/2

Ollie's Folly (3) rounds out our trifecta with a 77.99 TrackWiz rating and a very strong 26% career win rate that suggests this isn't a horse who just pads a record by running second. Anthony Rodriguez gets the mount, and at 5/2 morning line, Ollie's Folly is the shortest-priced of our top three — if the pace collapses on the leaders, this one has the profile to come through and collect a check.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Agua Fresca looks like the class of this claimer and may be slightly underpriced at 2/1 — the real question is whether anyone in here can close the gap, or if this is a procession.

win1Agua FrescaML 2/1

Agua Fresca (1) is the top-rated horse on today's entire card through the first five races at 88.54 TrackWiz points, and the 25% career win rate confirms she's no paper tiger. Brandon Tapara gets the mount and the 2/1 morning line actually represents reasonable value given the rating gap over the field — the second-best horse here (Starcourt) is nearly 20 points below. Trainer Saul M. Morales also saddles Coldasice in this race, suggesting strong stable confidence in the entry.

place4StarcourtML 8/1

Starcourt (4) is the most interesting underneath play in this field at 8/1 morning line — that's a generous price for a horse rated 69.16, third-best in a six-horse field. The 7% career win rate is low, but jockey Noel Vigil pilots for trainer Richard L. Genovese and the average speed of 53 keeps Starcourt honest against this group. If Agua Fresca takes the race wide, Starcourt could sneak into a place check at a profitable number.

show5Go Jocelyn GoML 7/2

Go Jocelyn Go (5) provides the third leg of our ticket at 7/2 morning line with a 60.99 TrackWiz rating and a 15% career win rate that's middle-of-the-road but consistent. Luis Raul Rivera is aboard for trainer James R. Jackson, and the 53 average speed figure blends right into the pace scenario this race figures to produce. A show ticket here feels like a reasonable safety net in what could be a front-heavy race.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Suzie Q's Sister looks like a dominant favorite in this allowance, but Red Royalty and State Charmer offer enough mid-price intrigue to keep the exotic tickets from getting too chalky.

win1Suzie Q's SisterML 2/1

Suzie Q's Sister (1) matches Agua Fresca's race-best 88.54 TrackWiz rating and brings a stunning 33% career win rate — the kind of number you rarely see in an allowance field. Chelsey Keiser picks up the mount for trainer Jason DaCosta, and at 2/1 morning line, the public has already identified the right horse. The 53 average speed figure is competitive across the board, but the overall profile here — high rating, strong win percentage — makes this an easy top selection.

place2Red RoyaltyML 4/1

Red Royalty (2) is a puzzling morning-line second choice at 4/1 given a modest 7% career win rate and a 66.34 TrackWiz rating, but the price makes the place slot intriguing. Trainer Shane Meyers sends Alexander Chavez out, a jockey who appears multiple times today, and the 51 average speed figure may actually benefit from a pressing pace scenario rather than a wire-to-wire effort. At 4/1, you're getting paid to take a shot on a horse who can land on the board.

show3State CharmerML 3/1

State Charmer (3) rounds out the ticket at 3/1 with a 61.37 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate that's legitimately solid for allowance company. Luis Raul Rivera — arguably the most active rider on this card — takes the mount for trainer Timothy E. Hamm, who also saddles Name Dropper in this same race. The 53 average speed figure matches several of the leaders, and State Charmer's profile suggests a horse who consistently hits the board even without winning.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A tight three-horse battle looms at the top of this claimer, with Kat Trax, Quick Rendezvous, and Feeling Easy all within striking distance — but the ratings say one of them is worth backing confidently.

win6Kat TraxML 9/5

Kat Trax (6) leads the field with an 86.92 TrackWiz rating and goes off as the morning-line favorite at 9/5 — the public and the model agree here, which doesn't happen every race. Victor R. Fernandez gets the ride for trainer Ivan Vazquez, and while the 16% career win rate is on the modest side, the raw rating suggests this horse is performing at a higher level than that number implies. In a six-furlong dirt claimer at Thistledown, Kat Trax looks well-placed to take control.

place4Quick RendezvousML 9/2

Quick Rendezvous (4) sits just behind Kat Trax in our model at 84.90 and is the best value on this card at 9/2 morning line given how close the ratings are at the top. Erik Barbaran makes the switch to this horse for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, and the 25% career win rate is legitimately strong — this is a horse who wins when the conditions are right. The 54 average speed figure is the best in the field and sets up well for a six-furlong trip.

show2Feeling EasyML 6/1

Feeling Easy (2) is worth a look at 6/1 as the show option in this race, with a 74.09 TrackWiz rating that's clearly third-best in a competitive little field. Fernando Salazar Becerra gets the mount for trainer Nestor R. Rivera, and the 12% career win rate suggests a horse who can hit the board without consistently closing things out — a show profile if there ever was one. At 6/1, the potential payout makes including Feeling Easy in trifecta combinations an easy call.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The closer of the card features a clear TrackWiz top pick in a wide-open claimer — Ilikethat carries eye-catching win percentage and a top rating into a race where the pace scenario could set up perfectly.

win4IlikethatML 7/2

Ilikethat (4) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 86.35 and — most impressively — a 43% career win rate that is absolutely elite at this level. Alexander Chavez takes the mount for trainer Nestor R. Rivera, and the 54 average speed figure ties for best in the field. At 7/2 morning line, there's still reasonable value on what looks like a standout in a competitive eight-horse closer.

place3Jim's River RunnerML 4/1

Jim's River Runner (3) comes in rated 73.03 by TrackWiz — a solid second-best in the field — and gets Victor R. Fernandez for trainer Stephani Norris. The 15% career win rate is workmanlike, but the 54 average speed figure matches Ilikethat's and suggests this horse can stay competitive through the lane. At 4/1 morning line, Jim's River Runner is a logical place contender who won't be ignored in the exotics.

show7ZakariaML 9/2

Zakaria (7) closes the ticket at 9/2 with a 59.40 TrackWiz rating and a 16% career win rate that suggests some familiarity with hitting the board. Luis Alberto Batista gets the mount for trainer Susan D. Yoder, and the 53 average speed figure keeps Zakaria in the pace conversation without figuring to lead. In a race where the top two horses both have strong speed, a horse with Zakaria's profile can often sneak into third when the duelers tire late.

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A clean, fast Thistledown afternoon with eight dirt sprints and some legitimate talent on the board — today's card rewards disciplined handicapping. Lady Lottie is the headline free play, but Agua Fresca and Suzie Q's Sister are the two names to know if you want the full picture. Subscribers get every angle, every ticket, and every pace projection. Check out TrackWiz Premium to unlock the complete card — and good luck at the windows today.

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