Daily Picks

Thistledown Picks & Predictions — June 22, 2026

Monday, June 22, 20268 racesThistledown

It's a Monday afternoon at Thistledown and the weather is cooperating — cloudy skies and a comfortable 66°F keep the track honest and the footing consistent. Eight races are on the card today, all on the main dirt, ranging from a quick 5½-furlong sprint to a pair of one-mile routes that should sort out who really wants to run.

The mix of claiming races, maiden claimers, and allowance events gives this card some nice range. Sprint speed figures will matter early, but the two route races in the middle of the card (Races 5 and 6) are where pace scenarios get interesting — and where sharp bettors can find real value. Stick around for those.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A competitive claiming sprint where the top of the TrackWiz ratings is separated from the rest, but three horses are bunched closely enough that the exacta and trifecta boxes could pay nicely.

win1Driven for SuccessML 5/1

Driven for Success sits atop the TrackWiz ratings with an 84.17 and brings a 19% career win rate to a field where nobody else cracks 22%. Trainer Jeffrey Radosevich doubles up in this race, which means he's confident in his stock, and having the higher-rated runner of the two is a good sign. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here — the number says he should be closer to favoritism. Luis Raul Rivera picks up the mount and has the experience to put him in the right spot in a 5.5-furlong dash.

place5Brief EncounterML 3/1

Brief Encounter is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 for a reason — a 21% career win rate is the best in the field, and trainer James Jackson keeps this horse competitive. The 78.23 TrackWiz rating is strong, though it trails Driven for Success by a meaningful margin. Use him underneath in exotics; he's got the talent to hit the board even if he can't get to the wire first.

show6Kettle KissML 7/2

Kettle Kiss brings a 25% career win rate — best in the field — and is the second Radosevich runner in this race, which sets up an interesting barn dynamic. The slightly lower average speed figure is a concern against the top two, but that win rate suggests she fires regularly and is a reliable exotics anchor at 7/2. Erik Barbaran has the rail call and can keep her close to pace in this short sprint.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint where every horse is still looking for that elusive first win, making the TrackWiz ratings and raw speed figures the primary separators in what could be a chaotic pace scenario.

win4Union SwagML 2/1

Union Swag is the standout in this maiden field by a wide margin — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating dwarfs the competition, and his average speed figure of 53 ties for the best in the race. Trainer Gary Johnson sends him out with Deshawn Parker in the irons, a capable rider who can manage pace on a horse with this kind of upside. At 2/1, the morning line respects him as the leader, and our analysis agrees — this is as close to a single as you'll find in a maiden race.

place7EnzitoML 7/2

Enzito checks in with a 71.12 TrackWiz rating and an average speed of 53, making him the clear second-best option in TrackWiz analysis. Trainer Jeffrey Skerrett saddles his own horse with Jefferson Skerrett in the irons — a family operation that tends to know exactly what they have. That insider confidence, combined with the second-highest rating in the field, makes Enzito a logical place contender at 7/2.

show6Gunn's RoarML 5/2

Gunn's Roar posts a 56.66 TrackWiz rating and draws trainer Jeffrey Radosevich, who is active on today's card and knows how to spot a runner in the right spot. The 5/2 morning line might actually undervalue his win chances if the top two have trouble, but at minimum he's a safe show play. With Luis Raul Rivera up, he'll get a professional ride in what could be a pace-influenced sprint.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short-field allowance sprint that sets up as a two-horse battle at the top, with the morning-line favorite and a 5/1 shot separated by the slimmest of rating margins — this one could come down to the wire.

win2Jasper MaximusML 8/5

Jasper Maximus is the 8/5 morning-line choice and earns it with an 86.05 TrackWiz rating — the best in the field. What really jumps off the page is a 66% career win rate, an elite mark that signals a horse who knows how to close out races. Trainer Timothy Hamm puts Rocco Bowen up, a rider with plenty of Thistledown experience, and the combination of top rating and elite win percentage makes this one of the stronger single-race spots on the card.

place1Holidays Army BratML 5/1

Holidays Army Brat is only 1.88 rating points behind Jasper Maximus, which is razor-thin at this level, and offers genuine value at 5/1 on the morning line. An 18% career win rate is respectable in allowance company, and his average speed figure of 54 actually tops the field by a tick. Trainer Shane Meyers and Alexander Chavez form a workmanlike combo — if Jasper Maximus gets into a speed duel early, Army Brat could be looming on the outside.

show3Grimes GlenML 2/1

Grimes Glen matches Jasper Maximus's 66% career win rate, which is remarkable company to keep, and rates third in the field at 74.8. Trainer David Wolochuk sends him out with Chelsey Keiser, and the 2/1 morning line reflects the talent in this five-horse field. He's a logical show play and a smart trifecta inclusion if the top two battle each other into submission.

We're opening the card with three free best bets, and each one has a distinct angle worth noting. Driven for Success (Race 1, 5/1 morning line) headlines the opener as a claiming race value play — that price is generous based on our TrackWiz rating of 84. In Race 2, Union Swag comes in as the morning line favorite at 2/1 in a maiden claimer, backed by our highest-rated score of the free races at 88.54. And in Race 3, Jasper Maximus steps into an allowance test at 8/5 — a competitive price for a horse our model grades out as a legitimate contender.

One thread connecting all three free races: they're all 5½-furlong sprints on a cool, firm-tracking day. Early speed has a chance to get loose and wire the field, so watch the pace setters closely. If any of these horses break cleanly and find the front, they have the conditions to hold on.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This 6-furlong claimer features a significant ratings gap at the top, with the TrackWiz leader holding a 25-point cushion over the next-best horse — but the morning line tells a different story, creating potential overlay value.

win5Drill CityML 2/1

Drill City is the horse to beat by a comfortable margin — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating is the class of this field, and a 26% career win rate backs it up. Trainer Shane Meyers keeps him sharp and Jose Bracho climbs aboard; this jockey-trainer combination is worth noting on a horse who profiles as the clear top selection. The 2/1 morning line is fair, but the rating gap between Drill City and the rest of the field suggests he may be even more dominant than the price implies.

place3Silent DrillML 4/1

Silent Drill rates third in the field at 63.12 but earns the place call with a 17% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54 that matches the top two runners. Angel Diaz gets the mount for trainer Craig Sweeting, and at 4/1 there's some place-pool value if Drill City dominates up front. The name symmetry with our win pick is coincidental — the numbers are what matter, and they support Silent Drill as a legitimate board contender.

show2ReddenML 9/2

Redden sits just below Silent Drill at a 59.0 rating and shares trainer Robert Cline with the morning-line favorite Run Red Run — that barn has two bullets in this race. A 12% career win rate is modest but not alarming in a six-horse claiming field, and the 9/2 morning line could drift to better value. In an event where the favorite runs away, Redden figures to be scrapping for the show spot.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

The one-mile allowance is a wide-open affair with four horses bunched between 62 and 80 on the TrackWiz scale — the best value play of the day might be hiding at a double-digit morning line.

win2Private MomentML 8/1

Private Moment is our top selection at 8/1 — a genuine overlay if the TrackWiz rating of 79.79 holds up, as that's the highest mark in a competitive field. A 25% career win rate is solid for allowance company, and trainer Mary Hurley has David Haldar in the irons for the route distance. One mile suits closers, and if Private Moment is sitting mid-pack at the half-mile pole, he's got the rating to run them down.

place7Full SpectrumML 4/1

Full Spectrum rates 78.65 — virtually identical to our win pick — and comes in at 4/1 on the morning line, making him an interesting play in his own right. A 20% career win rate and an average speed figure of 53 are consistent, and trainer James Jackson keeps horses fit for routes. Luis Raul Rivera, who is active all day at Thistledown, takes the mount and will be looking for a ground-saving trip on the inside.

show3Astro BeauML 5/1

Astro Beau at 5/1 rates third in the field at 65.79 and gives trainer Kim Puhl a runner worth watching in the one-turn mile. The 11% career win rate is the one caution flag, but that number sometimes improves when a horse finds its ideal distance — and a full mile on dirt may be exactly that. Rocco Bowen has been busy at this meet and brings live horsemanship to the mount.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The one-mile claimer on the evening card features a glaring disconnect between the morning line and the TrackWiz ratings — the two horses rated highest are both listed at 8/1 or longer, setting up potential overlay fireworks.

win5QuarantinoML 8/1

Quarantino tops the TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 despite a 8/1 morning line, which is exactly the kind of disconnect our analysis is built to find. A 18% career win rate is serviceable, and trainer Jeffrey Skerrett saddles his own horse with Jefferson Skerrett — the family team that also showed up strong in Race 2 today. At a mile, pace matters, and if Quarantino is forwardly placed in a field that doesn't figure to be blazing fast, the 8/1 looks like a gift.

place2Star EntertainerML 5/1

Star Entertainer rates 76.67 — second-best in the field — and draws a 5/1 morning line from trainer Gary Johnson. The 10% career win rate is the softer number here, but the TrackWiz rating says his recent efforts have been strong. Elijah Greenidge handles the mount, and in a race where our top pick draws underneath attention, Star Entertainer is the natural place play.

show4Stormin'unclejackML 8/1

Stormin'unclejack brings the field's best average speed figure at 55 and a 25% career win rate that ranks among the top in this field. Trainer Rodney Faulkner has him listed at 8/1, meaning the market is underrating what the raw speed numbers are saying. Angel Diaz gets the call, and if pace sets up honestly over a mile, Stormin'unclejack's late kick could land him right on the board.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The allowance sprint at 5.5 furlongs looks like a race with a clear top selection, but a trio of horses all sitting above 65 on the TrackWiz scale means the exotics could have real meat on them.

win3MinestressML 2/1

Minestress is the TrackWiz top-rated horse at 88.54 — the highest single-horse rating of the day outside of Race 4 — and a 35% career win rate is exceptional at any level. Trainer Jeffrey Radosevich, who has been active all afternoon, loads up Luis Raul Rivera here, a jockey who's been aboard multiple strong mounts today. At 2/1, this is among the most defensible morning-line plays on the card, and the rating-to-price relationship is spot on.

place2NubladaML 5/2

Nublada comes in at 77.53 and matches Minestress's 35% career win rate — the best in this race — while posting an average speed figure of 54. Trainer Robert Gorham places Victor Fernandez on the 5/2 second choice, and that jockey knows how to get a speed horse out of the gate quickly in short sprints. If Minestress has any trouble early, Nublada has the profile to steal the show.

show5Mission GirlML 6/1

Mission Girl at 6/1 rates 71.78 and brings a 26% career win rate that is quietly one of the stronger records in this field. Trainer Nestor Rivera doubles up in this race, sending out both Mission Girl and Belle Bottoms, suggesting he has live ammunition from multiple angles. Angel Diaz rides, and the 6/1 price makes Mission Girl an excellent underneath inclusion in any trifecta ticket you're building here.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a 6-furlong claimer with two horses rated nearly identically at the top and a razor-thin gap between them — this could be the tightest finish of the card, and the exotics on top of these two figures to pay.

win8Daredevil DougML 2/1

Daredevil Doug leads the TrackWiz ratings at 86.83 and brings a 25% career win rate to a field where nobody else can match that combination of number and consistency. Trainer Jevon Crumley has him going with Deshawn Parker, who has been one of the busier riders today and is in good rhythm. The 2/1 morning line is accurate — this is the right horse at the right price, and at 6 furlongs he should be able to rate off the pace and unleash late.

place6Chalon's FirstML 7/2

Chalon's First is only 0.48 rating points behind Daredevil Doug at 86.35 — essentially a dead heat in the numbers — and a 33% career win rate is the best in the field by a significant margin. Trainer Michael Rone sends him out at 7/2 with Erik Barbaran, who has had multiple mounts at this meet today. With a win rate that strong, the place bet on Chalon's First at 7/2 might actually be the single best value play in the race.

show5Breeze the BayouML 4/1

Breeze the Bayou rates 74.48 — a clear third in the field — and pulls a 4/1 morning line that reflects his competitive presence here. Jefferson Skerrett rides for trainer Jeffrey Skerrett, the same family combination that has shown up strong on today's card in earlier races. While the 6% career win rate is a caution flag, the TrackWiz figure suggests recent form is trending up, and a show ticket at 4/1 is a reasonable hedge in what projects to be a tight finish between the top two.

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Bottom line for today at Thistledown: three solid free best bets to get you started — Driven for Success, Union Swag, and Jasper Maximus — with a full-card breakdown waiting for subscribers. The longshot angles in the route races alone are worth unlocking the premium analysis. Upgrade your TrackWiz account at /pricing and get the complete picture before the first race goes off.

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