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Saratoga Picks & Predictions — August 23, 2026

August 23, 202610 racesAll Saratoga picks

It's a wet Sunday at the Spa. Rain is falling at Saratoga with temperatures sitting around 72°F, and that changes the calculus on nearly every turf race on today's 10-race card. When the grounds crew starts eyeing the turf course, so do we — and bettors need to stay sharp on late surface switches that can flip a morning line upside down.

Despite the conditions, there's a lot to get excited about. The card mixes maiden fields, claiming battles, and allowance optional claimers across both surfaces before culminating in a stakes showdown at 1 1/8 miles on the main track. Ten races, two surfaces, and a weather variable that keeps every angle honest — that's a full day's work.

Our TrackWiz model has processed the full card and identified plays we feel good about in all conditions. Three races are open to everyone today, with our complete premium breakdown — pace projections, exotic angles, and multi-race wager strategy — available to subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A wide-open turf claiming mile with a clear TrackWiz rating standout at the top, but a pair of well-credentialed closers lurking to make this a genuine three-horse affair.

win2Ice ChocolatML 2/1

Ice Chocolat owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 — a significant gap over her closest rivals — and Jose L. Ortiz in the irons is about as reliable a pilot as you'll find at the Spa. Trained by Mark E. Casse, who consistently gets his turf runners to fire fresh, she carries a 16% career win rate that looks respectable in a field of modest achievers. At 2/1 morning line, you're not getting rich, but the rating gap makes her the most logical win single here.

place8Secured LandingML 9/5

Secured Landing brings an eye-popping 42% career win rate — the best in this field by a wide margin — and a TrackWiz rating of 83.49 that slots in comfortably as the second-best number. Kendrick Carmouche has been sharp at the Spa this summer, and at 9/5 on the morning line, this horse shapes up as an excellent exotics anchor if Ice Chocolat does lead the way.

show4BelouniML 3/1

Belouni checks in with a 68.40 TrackWiz rating and a 19% career win rate, and Flavien Prat rarely accepts mounts he doesn't believe in. Jorge R. Abreu is a trainer who fires his horses ready, and at 3/1, Belouni rounds out the top three nicely for trifecta construction on a turf route that should suit a horse with some tactical versatility.

Race 2

5:46 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A maiden turf mile packed with first-time starters and lightly raced horses, making trainer and jockey connections the primary handicapping levers in an otherwise data-light race.

win2And the Runner IsML 8/5

And the Runner Is earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 59.00 and draws the services of Jose L. Ortiz, who is simply one of the best maiden-race pilots in the country. Mark E. Casse has a knack for presenting turf maidens ready to win first out, and the 8/5 morning line reflects legitimate confidence from the connections. With an avg speed figure of 54 — tied for the best in the field — the talent appears to be there.

place9MotawaaliML 2/1

Motawaali is trained by the Hall of Fame conditioner William I. Mott and boasts a TrackWiz rating of 58.33, just a hair behind the top selection. Junior Alvarado has a strong working relationship with Mott's barn, and a 2/1 morning line in a maiden field this uncertain signals that the clockers have seen something worth backing. A solid place target in exotics.

show1HarbaughML 5/2

Harbaugh is the second Casse entry in the race and pairs with Irad Ortiz, Jr. — a combination that demands respect in any maiden field at Saratoga. His TrackWiz rating of 57.50 ties Gold On Black for third-best, but the Casse-Irad partnership gives him a slight edge in terms of expected race management. At 5/2, he's a logical show option and trifecta piece.

Race 3

6:23 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Hot Currency is a class above this allowance optional claiming field on dirt, but the pace scenario and a pair of capable closers could test whether the favorite gets pressured into trouble.

win1Hot CurrencyML 9/5

Hot Currency's TrackWiz rating of 88.83 is the best in this field by more than 35 points — a commanding edge in any race. Her 37% career win rate is elite, and Manuel Franco is a proven big-meet performer who knows how to rate a speed horse through a tactically sound trip. Linda Rice has her horses dialed in at Saratoga, and at 9/5, this is as close to a confident single as you'll find on the card.

place4Vekoma's DivaML 5/1

Vekoma's Diva brings an extraordinary 50% career win rate — she wins half the time she runs, which is remarkable at any level. With a TrackWiz rating of 53.33 and Luis Saez up for George Weaver, she's trained by one of the sharpest conditioners on the circuit. She may lack the pure rating of Hot Currency, but horses who win half their races don't stop finding ways to hit the board.

show7Tennessee BelleML 2/1

Tennessee Belle is the Todd Pletcher entry here at 2/1 on the morning line with Flavien Prat aboard — a pairing that routinely features on the front end of exotics at the Spa. Her 33% career win rate is solid, and a TrackWiz rating of 48.04 suggests she's capable on her best day. In a short six-furlong sprint, Pletcher's ability to have horses sharp out of the gate gives her a real shot at the show spot.

The three free races today span both surfaces and give you a real feel for the card. We open on the turf with Ice Chocolat in Race 1, a claiming mile and a sixteenth where our model rates this horse an 88.54 — the highest rating of any free-race pick today. In maiden company in Race 2, And the Runner Is goes postward at 8/5 on the morning line in another turf route, though rain-softened ground bears watching before you finalize that ticket. Race 3 moves to the dirt and that's where Hot Currency gets interesting — a 9/5 morning line price in an allowance optional claiming sprint with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating suggests this horse fits the conditions beautifully if the turf course gets compromised and speed figures from dry-track starts carry over.

The common thread connecting all three free picks: strong TrackWiz ratings in the high 80s on horses priced at or near the morning line favorite. No overlay hunting required — just solid horses in spots where the model sees a clear edge.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:59 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

Chad Brown saddles two in this dirt maiden mile, and when a Hall of Fame trainer doubles up in a maiden race, the whole field is essentially playing for third — a pace battle between his runners could be the story.

win6Gadget PlayML 9/5

Gadget Play tops the TrackWiz ratings at 58.67 and gets the services of Luis Saez, who is one of the most effective riders at closing out maiden races. Trained by Albert M. Stall, Jr., he carries an average speed figure of 55 and draws the rail-adjacent 6-hole, which is manageable at a one-mile route. At 9/5, the morning line reflects genuine public confidence, and the numbers back it up.

place5Commitment FundML 5/2

Commitment Fund is Chad Brown's second entry with Flavien Prat up — and Brown's turf and dirt maiden winners with top jockeys are a consistent source of return at Saratoga. His TrackWiz rating of 57.50 is just behind Gadget Play, and an average speed figure of 55 shows he can produce the numbers. At 5/2, this is an outstanding place bet and exotics piece.

show4Ize a RunnerML 4/1

Ize a Runner is the other Brown entry here, giving the barn two bullets in a wide-open maiden field. Manuel Franco rides, and Brown-Franco is a combination that rarely gets beaten without trying. His TrackWiz rating of 55.00 and average speed figure of 54 make him a credible threat to hit the board, and at 4/1, he's priced right for an exotics anchor in the trifecta.

Race 5

7:35 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A short turf sprint at 5 1/2 furlongs that sets up as a pace duel between several legitimate speed horses, making stamina at the top of the ratings — not just early foot — the key angle.

win1Run Curtis RunML 5/2

Run Curtis Run leads all TrackWiz ratings in this allowance optional claiming field at 87.81 and brings the best average speed figure in the race at 57, which matters in a sprint where early positions are contested. Flavien Prat, one of the premier turf sprinters riders in the country, is a dream booking for Michael J. Maker, who places his horses well. At 5/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse with the top number and a class edge.

place9Oil CapitalML 2/1

Oil Capital enters with a 79.20 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and a 20% career win rate that's quietly consistent. Linda Rice runs a sharp barn at Saratoga, and Jose Lezcano is a savvy turf sprint rider who knows how to find room in tight traffic. At 2/1 on the morning line, he's actually priced as the public's top choice, making him a compelling place play even if Run Curtis Run takes the glory.

show2Twisted FiligreeML 3/1

Twisted Filigree owns the highest average speed figure in the entire field at 59 — the kind of raw number that can win races when the pace melts down. Manuel Franco takes the call for Horacio De Paz, and a 16% career win rate in a deep spot shows this horse competes. At 3/1, he's a legitimate show option and trifecta inclusion for bettors who respect the speed figures.

Race 6

8:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Reddington enters this seven-furlong dirt claiming test with the field's top rating by a healthy margin, but a seasoned group of mid-level dirt horses means the favorite will have to earn it.

win5ReddingtonML 7/2

Reddington's TrackWiz rating of 86.35 is the best in this field by more than eight points, and his 21% career win rate is right in line with what you'd expect from a consistent claiming performer at this level. Kendrick Carmouche rides for trainer Michelle Giangiulio, and at 7/2 on the morning line, you're getting a horse with the best rating in the field at an accessible price. The seven-furlong dirt distance suits a tactical horse who can rate off the pace.

place6Emirates RoadML 3/1

Emirates Road rates second in the field at 77.99 with a 25% career win rate, and Manuel Franco is one of the most in-demand riders at the Spa for good reason. Linda Rice conditions, and her dirt horses at Saratoga this summer have been routinely hitting the board. This is a prime place play at 3/1 if Reddington does lead the way home.

show7Lunar ModuleML 6/1

Lunar Module is the longest-priced of our top three at 6/1 morning line, but Irad Ortiz, Jr. doesn't climb aboard horses without a realistic chance. Trained by Joe Sharp, he posts a TrackWiz rating of 71.70 and the highest average speed figure in the race at 56 — speed figures matter at seven furlongs on dirt. He's a great trifecta play who could easily sneak into the exotics at a nice price.

Race 7

8:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A loaded allowance optional claiming turf mile where four horses rate above 78 on TrackWiz — this is a genuine multi-horse affair with a narrow favorite and legitimate threats lurking at value prices.

win9Nina KayML 7/5

Nina Kay paces the field at 88.24 on TrackWiz and carries a 18% career win rate that, in an allowance field this deep, is perfectly respectable. Jose Lezcano has been a key rider for Linda Rice at Saratoga, and the 7/5 morning line reflects connections that feel their horse is ready to fire on the Spa turf. With an average speed figure of 55, the talent level is there to handle this field.

place8BrokealltherulesML 4/1

Brokealltherules is one of the most interesting horses on the entire card — a 50% career win rate is extraordinary, and a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 makes her the second-best-rated runner in this field. Flavien Prat takes the mount for Richard E. Dutrow, Jr., giving her a top-flight rider in what could be a pace-honest turf mile. At 4/1, she's the best value play among the top contenders.

show1All of ItML 9/2

All of It is the standout by career win percentage — a remarkable 66% — and posts a TrackWiz rating of 82.16 that ranks third in the field. Miguel Clement saddles her with Manuel Franco up, a combination that has clicked repeatedly at this meet. At 9/2, she's a logical exotics piece and show hedge for a race where multiple legitimate runners are jostling for position.

Race 8

9:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Tough Street dominates the ratings in this dirt claiming mile, but Moon Gate is a sneaky overlay at 10/1 with a number that suggests a troubled trip or two may be hiding his true form.

win4Tough StreetML 7/2

Tough Street posts the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 84.50 and a strong 25% career win rate — consistent figures from a horse that knows how to cash tickets. Manuel Franco rides for Oscar S. Barrera III, and Franco's ability to put horses in the right position through a one-mile dirt race is among the best in the business. At 7/2, this is a horse with the top number at a fair price.

place1Moon GateML 10/1

Moon Gate is the standout value play in this race — a TrackWiz rating of 76.88 is second-best in the field, yet the morning line is 10/1. That gap between rating and price is exactly what TrackWiz analysis is designed to surface. Christopher Elliott rides for Mitchell E. Friedman, and a 20% career win rate in a claiming field suggests this horse is capable of hitting the board at a price that more than compensates for the risk.

show7Kyle's MomML 3/1

Kyle's Mom brings the second-best career win percentage in the field at 36% — more than one in three starts results in a win, which is excellent for a claiming-level runner. Dylan Davis is a sharp rider who keeps horses out of trouble, and trained by Orlando Noda, she posts a TrackWiz rating of 68.06. At 3/1, she's a solid show option and trifecta mainstay for bettors constructing a spread.

Race 9

9:55 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

A stakes race with a clear top-rated favorite and a pair of perfect-record wildcards, making this a question of whether Talk to Me Jimmy is truly dominant or just the best horse in a short, imperfect field.

win6Talk to Me JimmyML 8/5

Talk to Me Jimmy leads the field with a 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse across this entire race card — and a 50% career win rate that speaks for itself. Manuel Franco is one of the most clutch stakes-race riders at Saratoga, and Rudy R. Rodriguez is a trainer who knows how to peak a horse for a big meet. At 8/5, you're betting on a dominant number with a proven pilot, which is usually a reasonable proposition.

place2Sunday BoyML 9/2

Sunday Boy rates second in the field at 71.09 with a 20% career win rate, and Jose L. Ortiz gives him a credible shot against even the top horse. James T. Ryerson has quietly been placing his horses well this summer, and in a stakes field this size, the second-best rating often means a place check. At 9/2, this is an attractive place play for bettors who want exposure to the exacta without fighting the chalk.

show4OnebigbeautfulbillML 3/1

Onebigbeautfulbill is a fascinating puzzle — a 100% career win rate means he has never lost a race he's finished. Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets the mount for Brad H. Cox, whose stakes horses at Saratoga are routinely among the best-prepared in the field. His TrackWiz rating of 56.67 and average speed figure of 55 may not top the board, but an undefeated horse with a Hall of Fame trainer deserves respect in any company.

Race 10

10:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A sprawling 16-horse maiden claiming turf field where the top TrackWiz ratings are spread across wide program numbers — exotics players should have a field day in a race where the favorite is priced near even money but far from a lock.

win4Melody ManML 8/1

Melody Man earns the top TrackWiz rating in this massive field at 79.79 and brings the best average speed figure of any horse in the field at 57 — a meaningful edge in a turf route where late kick matters. Jose L. Ortiz rides for J. Kent Sweezey, and Ortiz's ability to get maiden winners home on the Saratoga turf is well-documented. At 8/1 on the morning line, this is a genuine overlay for a horse with the best numbers in the race.

place14SalvationML 6/5

Salvation is installed as the morning-line favorite at 6/5, and her TrackWiz rating of 78.32 puts her second in this field. Linda Rice conditions, and Jose Lezcano rides — both are proven at this level and at this track. An average speed figure of 55 ties her with several others for raw ability, but the combination of barn, rider, and rating makes her a near-certain inclusion in any exotics ticket.

show1VivaldiML 9/2

Vivaldi is trained by Chad C. Brown — the man who has mastered maiden turf racing at Saratoga over the past decade — and Flavien Prat takes the mount. His TrackWiz rating of 73.50 ranks third in the field, and an average speed figure of 54 is competitive in a maiden claiming context. At 9/2, Brown-trained turf maidens at Saratoga have a long history of exceeding expectations, making Vivaldi a must-include for trifecta bettors.

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Rain at Saratoga means staying nimble — surface decisions late in the morning can rewrite the whole script. Our top plays today are Ice Chocolat, Hot Currency, and And the Runner Is in the free races, with Talk to Me Jimmy headlining the premium card in today's stakes. Get the complete analysis, pace scenarios, and exotic strategies by subscribing at /pricing — and good luck at the windows.

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