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Saratoga Picks & Predictions — August 22, 2026

August 22, 202612 racesAll Saratoga picks

It's a gorgeous Saturday at the Spa — 77 degrees, partly cloudy, and a 12-race card that gives you plenty to chew on from the first call to the nightcap. Saratoga is firing on all cylinders right now, and today's mix of maiden sprints, allowance routes, and a pair of stakes races makes this one of the more compelling mid-August programs we've seen.

The dirt looks fast and the turf should be playing true after a dry, mild week — good news if you've been tracking horses that want a firm footing out there. We've got three free race previews to get you started, plus the full 12-race breakdown locked in for subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight going a mile on the dirt, where our top-rated horse is the morning-line longshot — creating a potential overlay situation that TrackWiz analysis loves to attack.

win4Big FrostyML 8/1

Big Frosty earns the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 64.51, which is a meaningful edge in a maiden field where separation is hard to find. Todd Pletcher conditions him, and Pletcher's barn has a long history of patience with debut runners at route distances — they don't send them to the gate without a plan. Manuel Franco gets the call, a rider who excels at rating horses through the early going, which matters a ton going a full mile. At 8/1 on the morning line, this is a legitimate overlay against a field that figures to inflate the prices of better-connected horses.

place6Modest MacleanML 8/5

Modest Maclean opens as the 8/5 morning-line favorite, which tells you the market respects this one most — and the 59.0 TrackWiz rating backs it up as the second-best figure in the field. Jose Ortiz aboard gives her a top pilot who saves ground expertly, and the average speed figure of 55 is the best in the race alongside Bubster. The question is whether the favorite price will offer enough value, but for place purposes, the market consensus makes her a safe anchor.

show7BubsterML 2/1

Bubster brings the same average speed figure (55) as the favorite and a TrackWiz rating of 58.33, making him statistically the third-best horse in here by a clear margin. Bruce Levine conditions him and Ricardo Santana Jr. is aboard — that's a competent team that knows how to get maidens ready. At 2/1, he's priced like a co-favorite, so the show spot is where the value in your exotics lies with this one.

Race 2

5:19 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 3/8 mi · Turf

Chad Brown saddles two live entrants on the turf, but it's his deeper-price runner who dominates the TrackWiz ratings — setting up a potential overlay in a field where the public money may split across both Brown horses.

win7ArkhipovML 3/1

Arkhipov is the standout in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — a full 15 points clear of the next-best horse — and he carries a 33% career win rate that speaks to consistent effort. Flavien Prat rides, and Prat on a Chad Brown turf runner at Saratoga is one of the most reliable patterns in the sport. Going 1 3/8 miles, the distance rewards horses with tactical versatility and stamina, and Brown's barn excels at routing on the lawn. At 3/1, he's not a screaming overlay, but the ratings gap justifies making him a confident top selection.

place4Asbury ParkML 2/1

Asbury Park sports a 33% career win rate — matching Arkhipov — and the second-highest rating in the field at 72.37, giving this Chad Brown/Manuel Franco combo plenty of ammunition. The 2/1 morning line makes him the public's top choice, and that's understandable, but with two Brown horses in here, the exacta combining his stablemate on top is the play. He's consistent enough to hit the board regularly.

show3MutaawidML 7/2

Mutaawid checks in third on the TrackWiz ratings at 66.67 and carries a 20% career win rate with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard — that's a jockey who doesn't lose on horses with a clear shot at the board. Brad Cox trains him, and Cox is a terrific conditioner on the turf at major meets. At 7/2, he offers a touch more value than the 2/1 favorite for show purposes, and his profile says he'll be competitive late at this distance.

Race 3

5:55 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Powerline opens as a heavy favorite in a deep maiden sprint, but Chad Brown counters with two first-time starters that could scramble the pace scenario and give the morning-line chalk a tougher test than expected.

win1PowerlineML 8/5

Powerline earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 59.0 and shows the highest average speed figure among horses with a published number at 55 — both meaningful edges in a maiden sprint on the dirt. Steve Asmussen trains and Jose Ortiz rides, a combination that regularly converts in exactly this spot at Saratoga. At 8/5, the market agrees, but the stats back the price — she's legitimately the class of this field based on available data.

place8Art MuseumML 4/1

Art Museum represents the Chad Brown first-out angle at 4/1, and Brown's first-time starters on dirt at Saratoga are always worth a look — his barn simply doesn't run them cold. Flavien Prat in the irons is a significant upgrade signal; Prat doesn't take throwaway mounts. The TrackWiz rating of 55.0 puts him solidly in the conversation, and a closer profile in a race where Powerline may get pressured early makes him an interesting exacta piece.

show9No Time to LoseML 6/1

No Time to Lose gets the Javier Castellano call for Kenneth McPeek's barn, and that jockey-trainer combination at the Spa is worth noting on any ticket. A TrackWiz rating of 51.67 puts him in the middle tier of this field, but in a maiden race with this many unknowns, middle-of-the-pack ratings can translate directly to trifecta hits. At 6/1, he's a reasonable show investment to round out your exotics.

Our three free previews today span some genuinely interesting territory. Race 1 is a one-mile maiden special weight on the dirt where Big Frosty jumps out at a juicy 8/1 morning line — the kind of price that makes you lean in when the TrackWiz rating backs up the selection. Race 2 stretches the field out to 1 3/8 miles on the turf, where Arkhipov headlines at 3/1 with one of the higher ratings on the card. And Race 3 brings a 6 1/2-furlong dirt maiden where morning-line chalk Powerline at 8/5 will need to earn that favoritism against a competitive field.

With the turf playing firm and the dirt surface looking consistent, pace scenario is going to matter all day. In the shorter sprints especially, early speed could be decisive — keep that in mind as you build your tickets around these free picks.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:31 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A sprawling 13-horse claiming field on the turf sprint sets up as a two-horse ratings battle at the top, with Five Dozen Roses and Heads in Beds both posting elite figures that dwarf the rest of the field.

win6Five Dozen RosesML 9/2

Five Dozen Roses posts the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.90 and combines that with an average speed figure of 56 — solid numbers for this level on the turf. Linda Rice conditions her, and Rice is a savvy conditioner who knows exactly when her horses are ready to fire. Dylan Davis gets the mount, and at 9/2 on the morning line, the odds represent a modest overlay given how far her rating separates from the mid-pack. The 12% career win rate in a turf claiming spot doesn't scare us — it's the recent form cycle that matters here.

place2Heads in BedsML 3/1

Heads in Beds is no slouch with a 81.38 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate, and that average speed figure of 59 is the best in the entire field. Saffie Joseph Jr. trains her in what looks like a live spot, and Manuel Franco aboard is always an asset on the lawn at Saratoga. She's priced at 3/1, which is honest for a horse with these raw speed numbers — she's a natural underneath Five Dozen Roses in your exacta.

show3Give Her AnotherML 10/1

Give Her Another is a legitimate longshot play with a TrackWiz rating of 66.78 — third-best in this field — and Tyler Gaffalione riding for Wayne Potts. Her 5% career win rate looks modest, but in a crowded claiming field on the turf sprint, she has the tools to sneak into the placings. At 10/1, she's exactly the type of price that pays handsomely in trifecta tickets while being backed by real data.

Race 5

7:06 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A 16-horse maiden claiming field on the turf route is about as chaotic as it gets, but TrackWiz analysis finds a clear top trio that rates well above the rest — making the exacta and trifecta the most appealing bets of this race.

win10LoveontheleftbankML 7/2

Loveontheleftbank tops the TrackWiz ratings at 83.49 in a field where the next-best horse is separated by less than a point — making this a razor-thin battle at the top. Flavien Prat rides for Miguel Clement, and that combination on the Saratoga turf is one to respect; Clement knows how to place turf maidens and Prat rarely wastes a live shot. An average speed figure of 54 is perfectly respectable for this maiden claiming level, and at 7/2 on the morning line, there's real value here relative to the ratings edge.

place11Devilish GrinML 6/1

Devilish Grin is just a tick behind at 82.71 on the TrackWiz scale but brings something the top pick doesn't — a 10% career win rate that proves this horse has already found the winner's circle. Manuel Franco rides for Amelia J. Green, and the 6/1 morning line is an attractive number for a horse with the second-best rating in a 16-runner field. Her average speed figure of 55 edges out the top pick slightly, which is why she's a strong place play rather than just a throw-in.

show13Key ActressML 8/1

Key Actress at 8/1 makes plenty of sense as the show selection given a TrackWiz rating of 79.38 — third-best in the entire field of 16. Jose Lezcano for Linda Rice is a reliable combination, and with an average speed of 55, she's clocking in above average for this level. In a field this large, having the third-best rating at 8/1 is exactly the kind of value spot that makes trifectas profitable over time.

Race 6

7:41 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

An 11-horse maiden sprint on the dirt features a handful of first-time starters from elite barns, creating genuine uncertainty at the top — this is the kind of race where pace setup and jockey decisions often matter more than paper figures.

win4Key Colony BeachML 7/2

Key Colony Beach earns the top TrackWiz rating at 55.83 and carries an average speed figure of 55 — the best published number in this field. David Fawkes conditions him with Manuel Franco in the irons, and Franco is adept at measuring out effort in maiden sprints where a horse needs to learn on the job. At 7/2, the morning line suggests the market finds him live, and the ratings edge — though modest in absolute terms — is real and consistent with what we'd expect from a horse ready to win first out.

place5Forever CarinaML 4/1

Forever Carina represents the Chad Brown first-timer angle with Jose Ortiz riding, and that's a combination you simply can't throw out in a maiden sprint at the Spa. Her TrackWiz rating of 55.0 is just a half-point off the top selection, making this effectively a dead heat at the top by the numbers. At 4/1, Brown's ability to have first-time starters ready on debut makes her the natural place play — these horses rarely hit the board by accident.

show11Very CleverML 5/1

Very Clever brings Irad Ortiz Jr. for Brad Cox, and that's as sharp a trainer-jockey combo as you'll find anywhere in the country for a maiden on the dirt. A TrackWiz rating of 53.33 puts her in third on our leaderboard, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate value in including her in trifectas. Cox first-time starters in maiden company tend to show up fit and ready, and Irad doesn't take mounts he thinks are hopeless.

Race 7

8:16 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Sacrosanct enters this allowance optional claiming sprint with a dominant TrackWiz rating and a career win percentage that makes every other entrant look like they're playing for second — the question is whether the 5/2 price is worth taking.

win8SacrosanctML 5/2

Sacrosanct dominates this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — more than 14 points ahead of the second-best horse — and backs it up with a staggering 54% career win rate. That win percentage isn't just a number; it means this horse wins more than half the time it runs, which in a competitive allowance field is remarkable. Manuel Franco rides for Linda Rice, a combination that has been sharp all meet, and the average speed figure of 57 is tied for the best in the field. Yes, the 5/2 price demands you're playing to win rather than for value, but you can't argue with the analytics.

place6NakatomiML 7/2

Nakatomi brings a 31% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 73.5 — the second-best figure in the field by a comfortable margin — with Tyler Gaffalione up for Wesley Ward's operation. Ward is a top sprint trainer, and at 7/2 on the morning line, Nakatomi looks like the most natural place play if you're trying to get underneath the heavy favorite. An average speed of 56 puts him right in the mix pace-wise, which should keep him close enough to threaten for the exacta.

show4Acoustic AveML 8/1

Acoustic Ave is an intriguing show play at 8/1 with a solid TrackWiz rating of 69.08 and a 25% career win rate — the kind of horse that hits the board regularly without always getting to the winner's circle. Jose Lezcano has the mount for Linda Rice, who also trains the top pick, so the barn clearly has options in here. His average speed of 56 matches Nakatomi, and in a pace scenario where the top horses get after each other early, Acoustic Ave's 8/1 show ticket could look very smart late.

Race 8

8:51 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A big, contentious allowance field on the turf sprint looks like a two-horse race at the top of the TrackWiz ratings, but the morning-line favorite is not the horse our analysis prefers — creating a potential overlay opportunity.

win11TuthilltownML 4/1

Tuthilltown tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 in a crowded field and does so at 4/1 on the morning line — a price that represents genuine overlay value when you consider she rates best by nearly 10 points over the third pick. Dylan Davis rides for Michael Miceli, and while that's not the most glamorous barn at the meet, the numbers don't lie. A 14% career win rate is nothing special, but the TrackWiz score suggests she's been running well enough to win and simply hasn't gotten the right trip — that changes today.

place14Lightning StrikeML 7/5

Lightning Strike opens as the 7/5 morning-line favorite, and that price is understandable given a 33% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 76.24. Manuel Franco rides for Miguel Clement, and Clement is excellent with turf sprinters at this time of year. The average speed of 55 is respectable, and while our analysis prefers Tuthilltown on top, Lightning Strike's consistency and the jockey-trainer combination make her almost impossible to leave off the board at any price.

show8DancingwithdestinyML 6/1

Dancingwithdestiny checks in with a 71.41 TrackWiz rating — third-best in this field — and a 16% career win rate with an average speed of 57 that actually leads the entire field. For Katie Davis, this is a chance to get a live one into the frame in a competitive allowance sprint, and the 6/1 morning line suggests the market is sleeping on the raw speed numbers. In a fast-pace scenario where the top two get into a duel, a horse with a 57 average speed can close into an open spot for the show dough.

Race 9

9:29 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Silver Talent's Chad Brown/Flavien Prat combination headlining a one-mile allowance sets up as the class-versus-price battle of the day — our analysis finds a big overlay on top and a genuine longshot case for the show pick.

win6Silver TalentML 5/1

Silver Talent earns an 84.17 TrackWiz rating — the clear top figure in this allowance field — and brings a 33% career win rate that underscores consistent competitiveness against open company. Flavien Prat rides for Chad Brown, and you simply do not fade that combination in an allowance at Saratoga; Brown's placement of horses in these spots borders on art. The 5/1 morning line is a genuine overlay for a horse rated this far above the field — that price implies roughly a 17% chance of winning, while the numbers suggest something closer to favorite territory.

place9Playa Del MarML 4/1

Playa Del Mar is a natural place anchor with a 74.17 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and a 27% career win rate that proves she can close out races. Manuel Franco aboard for Linda Rice gives her a top pilot who knows Saratoga's one-mile dirt oval as well as anyone. At 4/1, she's fairly priced, but in exotics she's the horse you want bridging Silver Talent to the show pool — the pace setup at a mile usually sets up for a stalking type to get involved.

show3CocktailsnkringleML 15/1

Cocktailsnkringle is our value show selection at a projected 15/1, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 65.49 that puts her solidly in third on the leaderboard — yet she's priced like a throwaway. Ricardo Santana Jr. rides for Steven Schauer, and a 14% career win rate with an average speed of 55 tells you this horse can run. At a mile on the dirt, pace scenarios can shuffle things around dramatically, and at 15/1 in your trifecta, this is exactly the kind of price that makes the payout worthwhile when it lands.

Race 10

10:07 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The day's featured turf stakes sees Segesta enter as a dominant figure on the TrackWiz ratings while the morning-line favorite Scalable — at 4/5 — trails badly in our numbers, setting up a fascinating market-versus-model confrontation.

win6SegestaML 7/5

Segesta owns the top TrackWiz rating in this stakes field at 89.42 — a full 19 points above the third-best horse — and carries a 35% career win rate that makes her one of the more accomplished runners on the card today. Flavien Prat rides for Chad Brown, and on a turf route at Saratoga, that combination at 7/5 might feel like you're laying a price, but the model strongly supports it. What's particularly interesting is that Scalable opens as the 4/5 morning-line choice while rating only 45.0 in our system — that's a massive discrepancy, and when the model and the market diverge this sharply, the model has historically been worth backing.

place7GrayoshML 8/1

Grayosh is the TrackWiz sleeper of this race at 8/1 on the morning line with a solid 70.40 rating — second-best among horses our analysis actually believes in. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Chad Brown, meaning the barn saddles both the top two selections on our sheet, which is a good sign the connections think this race sets up well for their runners. A 26% career win rate and an average speed of 53 paint the picture of a turf horse who competes honestly and could easily find the board at a generous price.

show3Deep SatinML 5/1

Deep Satin checks in at a 62.80 TrackWiz rating for Jose Ortiz and trainer Cherie DeVaux, and a 23% career win rate gives her a real résumé. At 5/1 on the morning line, she's fairly priced for a horse who sits third in our ratings for this stakes field, and the average speed of 55 leads the field among horses with published figures. If the race comes apart at the seams with Segesta and Scalable mixing it up, a solid stalker like Deep Satin has a puncher's chance to collect the show money.

Race 11

10:42 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/4 mi · Dirt

Counting Stars enters this 1 1/4-mile dirt stakes as the most dominant short-price favorite of the entire card — a 1/2 morning line backed by a 90.0 TrackWiz rating and a 60% career win rate that makes this feel closer to an exhibition than a horse race.

win6Counting StarsML 1/2

Counting Stars is the most complete statistical profile on today's card: a 90.0 TrackWiz rating (the highest of any horse in any race today), a 60% career win rate, and an average speed figure of 54 for a route distance that suits her profile. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides for Mark Casse, and Casse sends her to the gate in peak form based on everything our analysis can measure. Yes, the 1/2 morning line means you're risking two dollars to win one — but the ratings gap is so large that singles players and parlay builders should still consider her a cornerstone pick.

place4My Gun's LoadedML 3/1

My Gun's Loaded is the most intriguing horse in the race with a 66% career win rate — actually higher than the favorite — and a TrackWiz rating of 84.81 that would make her the best horse in most other fields on the card. Manuel Franco rides for Chad Brown, and while she clearly faces a stiff test from Counting Stars, her own record screams competitiveness. At 3/1, she's a fair price for the place spot, and if the favorite hits any trouble, she has the talent to capitalize immediately.

show3MeasureML 6/1

Measure brings a 70.44 TrackWiz rating — third-best in this short field — and Flavien Prat gets the mount for Mark Casse, the same barn that saddles the favorite. A 16% career win rate doesn't inspire confidence at first glance, but the rating and rider tell a different story, and at 6/1, she's the most underpriced horse in the bottom half of this field. In trifectas, snapping her in as the show leg underneath Counting Stars and My Gun's Loaded makes plenty of sense given her talent level and the odds on offer.

Race 12

11:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 3/16 mi · Turf

The late nightcap is a maiden special weight on the turf at 1 3/16 miles, and Mary Lois gives Chad Brown another dominant ratings entry to close out the card — but the show pick at 10/1 is the sneaky value angle worth highlighting.

win6Mary LoisML 7/2

Mary Lois tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 in this maiden turf field — a clear separation from the rest of the pack — with Flavien Prat riding for Chad Brown in a spot that has the barn's fingerprints all over it. Brown at Saratoga on the turf in a maiden route is as favorable a setup as you can draw, and Prat gives the filly every chance to run her race efficiently over this longer turf distance. The 7/2 morning line is honest value for the top-rated horse in the field, and while maidens always carry some uncertainty, the analytics back her strongly.

place5Secretly DelightedML 3/1

Secretly Delighted opens at 3/1 with a 74.11 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and Javier Castellano takes the mount for Mark Casse's operation. The average speed of 55 leads the field among published figures, and Casse has been one of the sharpest conditioners in turf routes all summer. She's priced like a co-favorite and the ratings justify it — she's a natural underneath Mary Lois in your exacta and a strong standalone place play if you think the Brown horse gets bet down further.

show3Home WreckerML 10/1

Home Wrecker is the show value of the race at 10/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 69.90 — just a fraction below the top two picks and notably ahead of the rest of the field. Kendrick Carmouche rides for Danny Gargan, and Gargan is a trainer who spots his horses well when the distance and surface align. An average speed figure of 54 is perfectly adequate for this maiden turf route, and at double-digit odds, she's an outstanding trifecta investment for anyone looking to maximize the payout on the closing race of the day.

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Bottom line for today: Counting Stars is the marquee name in Race 11, but the real opportunity on this card is finding value in the turf races and the maiden fields before the public sorts them out. Big Frosty at 8/1 in the opener is our favorite free-race conversation starter. Full analysis on all 12 races — including pace maps, exotic tickets, and our top value plays — is available to subscribers at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck at the windows today.

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