Unlock the other 6 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.

The winner is in our top 4 picks 75% of the time, across 17 tracks.

Daily Picks

Free Saratoga Picks & Predictions — August 13, 2026

August 13, 20269 racesAll Saratoga picks

Results are in — see the official Saratoga chart and payouts (our top pick won 3 of 9)→

The Spa is open for business on a beautiful August Thursday — partly cloudy skies, 79°F, and nine races spread across both the dirt and the turf. Conditions look close to ideal for all surfaces, which means horses should run to their numbers and form should hold up. No excuses today.

The card has serious range: we're opening with maiden turf sprinters in Race 1 and closing with a 1¾-mile dirt stakes test in Race 8 that'll sort out who really wants to run long. In between, there are four turf routes and sprints worth circling, a pair of maiden contests that often produce hidden value, and a stakes race that gives the afternoon its marquee feel. Nine races, plenty of angles — let's get into it.

3 Free Races at Saratoga

Race 1

5:10 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf sprint where TrackWiz ratings separate a clear top three from the rest of the field, though first-time starters add the usual dose of uncertainty.

win6AperitifML 5/2

Aperitif tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and posts the field's best average speed figure at 56 — a meaningful edge in a race where most rivals clock in at 55 or below. Trainer Elizabeth Merryman sends her out at a patient 5/2 morning line, and landing Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons is a significant booking that speaks to connections' confidence. On a 5½-furlong turf sprint, a horse with tactical speed and elite handling figures to be hard to catch.

place7Liberty's AdvanceML 5/1

Liberty's Advance carries an 83.87 TrackWiz rating and the backing of Hall of Fame conditioner Bill Mott, who wins at a high clip with well-prepared first-time starters. Junior Alvarado gets the call, and at 5/1 on the morning line there's real value if she runs to her work tab. She's the logical major threat to the top pick.

show5My Lil Army GirlML 4/1

My Lil Army Girl (78.70 rating, 4/1) rounds out a logical top three and gives Manuel Franco — one of the meet's most active riders — a live chance in the exotics. Her figure matches the cluster at 55 but her TrackWiz score gives her a clear edge over the bottom half of the field, making her a sensible show anchor in trifecta construction.

Race 2

5:44 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses are head and shoulders above this maiden claiming field on the TrackWiz model, setting up a potential match race with a sneaky third wheel at a price.

win5The StandardML 2/1

The Standard leads all comers with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and draws the powerful Jose L. Ortiz–Steve Asmussen combination, a barn that consistently shows up ready to win at Saratoga. Posted at 2/1 on the morning line, the price is fair but not generous — what's compelling is the separation between his rating and the rest of the field outside of one rival. At 6 furlongs on the main track, Asmussen horses tend to arrive fit and firing.

place2Mo the MerrierML 9/5

Mo the Merrier sits right behind at 85.88 and gets the Irad Ortiz Jr.–Ken McPeek axis, another formidable pairing. At 9/5 on the morning line he's actually bet lower than The Standard, which creates an interesting dynamic — if these two hook up on the front end, the pace could get hot and set things up for a closer. He's dangerous either way and belongs on your tickets.

show6OnepacML 4/1

Onepac (69.16 rating, 4/1) is the clear third wheel in this race and gives trainer John Terranova a live longshot at a price that offers real exotic value. His figure is a significant step back from the top two, but in a maiden claiming event the gap can close quickly when a horse simply loves the conditions. Include him underneath in exactas and trifectas.

Race 3

6:19 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

The morning-line favorite carries a misleadingly short price in a starter allowance where two horses rate significantly higher and a pair of longshots could complicate things at a mile on the dirt.

win5TimiaML 5/2

Timia tops our TrackWiz ratings at 81.38 and comes in at a very fair 5/2 morning line despite not being the public's top choice. Javier Castellano takes the mount — a rider who has long thrived at Saratoga — and the mile distance on dirt suits a horse with a 10% career win rate looking to build on a competitive form cycle. The pace scenario at a mile favors closers, and Timia's profile sets up nicely to swoop late.

place3Island CharmML 8/1

Island Charm is the value angle in this race, sitting at 8/1 on the morning line while posting a 79.79 TrackWiz rating — nearly identical to the top pick but available at three times the price. Manuel Franco is a major upgrade in the irons, and a career win rate of 11% in starter company shows she knows how to compete. At the mile distance, she's a strong play to hit the board and a prime exacta partner with Timia.

show2Our Preferred PalML 6/1

Our Preferred Pal (56.99, 6/1) actually edges the morning-line favorite Lady Wisdom on our model despite being available at much longer odds. A 6% career win rate is modest, but trainer Chris Englehart has a steady hand, and in a race where the top two could pull clear, a horse that simply runs her race figures to nab the show spot. Good exotic value at the price.

Three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader today: Races 1, 2, and 3. We're kicking off on the turf with Aperitif (5/2 morning line, TrackWiz rating 87.81) in the 5½-furlong Maiden Special Weight — a well-shaped price on a surface that should play fair all day. Race 2 brings us to the dirt for a 6-furlong Maiden Claimer where The Standard (2/1 ML, rating 88.54) shows up as our top selection with the best figure in the field. And Race 3 rounds out the free card at a mile on dirt — a Starter Allowance where Timia (5/2 ML, rating 81.38) gets the nod in a spot that rewards horses who can rate off the pace and finish.

One thread connecting these early picks: all three top choices are coming in at manageable odds without being chalk chalk, which means the payouts are worth playing and the risk feels proportionate. Solid spot to build a win-and-place or early exacta foundation before the premium portion of the card heats up.

Send me tomorrow's free Saratoga card before post time.

Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:54 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 3/16 mi · Turf

A deep allowance optional claiming field on the turf at 1 3/16 miles features a pair of standouts at the top of the TrackWiz model, while the morning-line favorite sits well below them — making this a potential overlay situation.

win4Midnight ConcertoML 7/2

Midnight Concerto leads all runners with an 85.40 TrackWiz rating and checks in at a morning line of 7/2 — solid value in a field where the public will likely gravitate toward Majaz at 2/1 despite a significantly lower model score. Jose L. Ortiz gets the call for the Ken McPeek barn, and with a 23% career win rate Midnight Concerto brings genuine winning experience to a long turf test. The 1 3/16-mile trip on grass historically rewards horses with class and stamina, and this one fits.

place5TulipML 5/2

Tulip (81.59, 5/2) has a 33% career win rate — one of the better marks in the field — and Junior Alvarado keeps the mount for trainer William Walden. She's not the flashiest figure but she's reliably competitive, and the 5/2 morning line is fair for a horse that hits the board as often as she wins. A logical place horse that makes sense in exacta keys.

show8ChartistML 6/1

Chartist (73.13, 6/1) offers meaningful value as a show selection. A 14% career win rate is respectable, and trainer Miguel Clement has been known to place horses well in spots like this. With a rider TBA situation to monitor, the price could drift further — if a capable jockey lands the mount, this becomes a sneaky trifecta inclusion at a juicy number.

Race 5

7:29 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

One horse dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this six-furlong dirt claimer, but the pace sets up to be honest with multiple speed horses — creating intrigue for the closers to catch them late.

win3VekomancerML 2/1

Vekomancer leads the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating, the highest average speed figure in the race at 56, and a career win rate of 25% that stands well above most rivals. Manuel Franco rides for Linda Rice, a sharp Saratoga trainer who knows how to spot her horses. At 2/1 on the morning line the price is on the short side, but the separation in raw figures over a 6-furlong dirt sprint is hard to dismiss.

place8MascaraML 3/1

Mascara (81.80, 3/1) is the clear second choice on our model and gets the Irad Ortiz Jr. booking — always a significant signal in a claiming race at this level. A 12% career win rate is modest, but average speed of 55 and a model score that clears the rest of the field comfortably make her the logical place play. She's worth using underneath Vekomancer in exactas.

show2Calling an AudibleML 10/1

Calling an Audible is the value standout at 10/1 on the morning line despite posting a 76.88 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Edward Barker, and a 7% career win rate in claiming company suggests he's been competitive without quite breaking through. At those odds, a horse with this figure makes for an excellent show bet and a worth-while trifecta inclusion.

Race 6

8:04 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Fionn arrives as one of the most statistically dominant favorites on the card — a 63% career win rate and the top TrackWiz score set him apart — but the place and show picks offer some real value underneath.

win1FionnML 6/5

Fionn is simply in a class of his own here. His 89.71 TrackWiz rating leads the field, his average speed figure of 59 is five ticks clear of most rivals, and a 63% career win rate is the kind of number that commands respect at any level. Brad Cox saddles him and Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the mount — arguably the best trainer-jockey combination at Saratoga this summer. At 6/5 you're not getting rich, but with a horse this dominant in a mile turf allowance, he's the cornerstone of any multi-race wager.

place2Shotgun WeddingML 7/2

Shotgun Wedding (86.35, 7/2) is no slouch — the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field and a 20% career win rate for Mark Casse, who consistently competes at the top of the game. Jose L. Ortiz rides, and if something goes sideways with the favorite, this horse is poised to pick up the pieces. He's the most logical place play and makes sense in exacta keys.

show4Ready to JamML 8/1

Ready to Jam at 8/1 is the value play in the exotics. His 75.23 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field and his average speed figure of 58 is second only to Fionn — a telling number for a horse that Brad Cox also trains, suggesting the barn has a clear understanding of his capabilities. A second Cox runner at 8/1 with figures like these makes the trifecta feel incomplete without him.

Race 7

8:39 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Shoot It True arrives as the TrackWiz model's highest-rated runner of the day at 90.00 — but the morning-line EVN price in a competitive turf sprint means value hunters need to look underneath.

win6Shoot It TrueML EVN

Shoot It True is the best-rated horse on the entire card at 90.00, backs that figure with an average speed of 58, and carries a sparkling 40% career win rate into this 5½-furlong turf sprint. Wesley Ward is the premier short-turf grass trainer in North America — his horses are almost always fit fresh and fire from the gate. Irad Ortiz Jr. gets the call, and even at an even-money morning line, the case for this horse is built on real data. He's your anchor.

place3Highway HarmonyML 5/2

Highway Harmony (72.41, 5/2) brings a 30% career win rate — the second-highest in the field — and trainer Amelia Green has placed her perfectly in a spot where the pace scenario could set up for a stalker. Edgard Zayas takes the mount, and at 5/2 the morning line is fair. She's the natural exacta partner with Shoot It True.

show8Next On StageML 8/5

Next On Stage (67.56, 8/5) is intriguing as a show play — the morning line seems to suggest the market views her as a co-favorite type despite a lower TrackWiz rating than Shoot It True. Manuel Franco rides for Linda Rice, and a 16% career win rate in this company is competitive. If the top pick wins going away, Next On Stage's late kick figures to be enough for the show dough.

Race 8

9:14 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 3/4 mi · Dirt

A marathon stakes at 1¾ miles on the dirt — Saratoga's ultimate stamina test — where our model strongly disagrees with the morning-line favorite, setting up what could be a significant overlay situation.

win6InterceptorML 9/2

Interceptor leads our TrackWiz model at 84.90 and lands Irad Ortiz Jr. for trainer Michael Maker — a combination that thrives in graded company. A 23% career win rate in stakes competition is solid, and at 9/2 on the morning line there's genuine value against a heavy public play on Parchment Party. The 1¾-mile distance is a true endurance test, and Maker has a long record of conditioning horses to fire late in marathon events. This is our best bet of the race.

place3Stars and StripesML 5/2

Stars and Stripes (77.81, 5/2) carries a 42% career win rate — tied for the top mark in the field — and rides for the two-horse Mott barn alongside the morning-line favorite. Luis Saez takes the mount, and when Mott runs two, both tend to show up. He's a logical threat to run second and makes sense as a place play at a fair price.

show2AnnexperienceML 10/1

Annexperience (76.88, 10/1) is the best value play on the board in this race. A 30% career win rate and the third-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 10/1 is the kind of spot sharp bettors circle — the Englehart barn sends Kendrick Carmouche, and in a small field running long, pacing issues often shake up the order. He's a strong trifecta inclusion at a price that far exceeds his figure warrants.

Race 9

9:49 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open six-furlong maiden special weight on the dirt with several first-time starters clouding the form — but one horse stands clear on the TrackWiz model while a pair of value plays loom underneath.

win2CriteriaML 5/2

Criteria tops our TrackWiz model at 87.81 with a 54 average speed figure, and the Chad Brown–Irad Ortiz Jr. combination is one of the most dangerous pairings in maiden races anywhere. Brown is one of the best in the business at debuting horses that are ready to run, and when he points one at Saratoga, you take notice. At 5/2 on the morning line the price is fair for a Brown first-out runner with these credentials — he's the clear best bet in the race.

place9Complex CharlieML 7/2

Complex Charlie (61.77, 7/2) is the second-highest rated runner in the field and gets Javier Castellano aboard for Carlos Martin — a trainer who does solid work in maiden company. A 54 average speed figure suggests he's shown something in his works, and at 7/2 the morning line offers real value for a horse that figures to be right there at the finish. He's the top exotic partner underneath Criteria.

show10Holy SevenML 5/1

Holy Seven (53.33, 5/1) gives Jose L. Ortiz a live mount for the powerhouse Asmussen barn. A 55 average speed figure in a maiden dirt sprint is respectable, and Asmussen consistently shows up with ready runners at Saratoga. At 5/1 he's a sensible show play and a worth-while trifecta piece in what figures to be a competitive finish behind the top two.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

It's a clean, playable Thursday at Saratoga with conditions leaning in bettors' favor. Aperitif, The Standard, and Timia headline the free picks — all three are worth including in your early tickets. The back half of the card, anchored by the stakes showdown in Race 8, is where the real money gets made. Full analysis, pace projections, and exotic breakdowns for Races 4–9 are waiting for subscribers — head to TrackWiz Premium to unlock the complete card. Good luck at the windows.

← All Saratoga picks & predictions

You're reading 3 of 9 races free