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Saratoga Picks & Predictions — August 12, 2026

August 12, 20269 racesAll Saratoga picks

It's a beautiful mid-August Wednesday at the Spa — partly cloudy skies, a comfortable 80°F, and nine races spread across both the main track and the turf course. Saratoga is in mid-meet form, and today's card has a little something for everyone: a marathon stakes opener, a pair of maiden special weights, and some tasty claiming races where sharp handicappers can find real value.

Five of the nine races take place on the turf, so surface preferences matter today. With no rain in the picture and temperatures sitting right in that sweet spot, the turf should be playing fair — expect honest pace scenarios and form to hold up. TrackWiz analysis has identified standouts at every level of today's card, from the chalk to a couple of price plays worth sprinkling in your exotics.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:10 PM EDT

Stakes · 2 3/8 mi · Turf

A marathon turf stakes at 2 3/8 miles where class and stamina separate contenders — two horses stand well clear of the field on TrackWiz ratings, making this a probable two-horse show with question marks about the closers.

win3Feeling FestiveML 3/1

Feeling Festive is the standout of the field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — more than two points clear of the next rival — and a staggering 66% career win rate that screams class at this level. Trainer Archibald J. Kingsley, Jr. sends her out at a morning line of 3/1, and with Freddie Procter in the irons, she's got a capable pilot for this grueling 2 3/8-mile test. At a true stamina distance like this, horses that win at a high clip tend to do it by simply being better, not by luck — and Feeling Festive looks like the real deal here.

place4Cyber NinjaML 5/2

Cyber Ninja checks in with a 84.96 rating and draws the 4-hole under Jamie Bargary, making her a logical bridesmaid at 5/2 on the morning line. Her 20% career win rate is respectable, and at a distance this extreme, getting beat by one elite rival while holding off the rest of the field is a very realistic scenario. She's a comfortable place bet in the exotics.

show7Philip My DearML 4/1

Philip My Dear sports a 30% career win percentage and a TrackWiz rating of 54.3 — she's clearly a notch below the top two but shows enough consistency to land a piece at 4/1. Trainer Katherine S. Neilson and jockey Jack Power are a familiar combo, and in a field where the bottom half of the draw looks thin, Philip My Dear rates as a safe show target in your trifectas.

Race 2

5:48 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer on the Saratoga main track where first-time starters and lightly-raced prospects collide — no horse in the field has broken their maiden yet, and the pace scenario over 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt figures to be fast and decisive.

win4Business MathML 3/1

Business Math gets the nod at 3/1 on the morning line, tops the TrackWiz ratings at 56.67, and draws a prime engagement with the powerful Steven M. Asmussen barn and Jose L. Ortiz in the saddle — a combination that hits at a strong clip in maiden sprints. She's recorded an average speed figure of 52, consistent with other contenders, but the Asmussen-Ortiz pairing gives her a distinct tactical edge when it matters most out of the gate. In a maiden claimer at Saratoga, trainer horsepower can be the deciding factor, and Business Math has plenty of it.

place3Dream AboutML 7/2

Dream About goes postward at 7/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 55.83 and Kendrick Carmouche up for the Albert Stall barn — a trainer who knows how to spot horses in winning positions. She sits just a tick below Business Math on our ratings, and in a field where no one has won before, the margins are slim enough that she lands in the money with regularity at this kind of price.

show8Beechwood's BestML 9/2

Beechwood's Best draws the 8-hole under Manuel Franco for Chad C. Brown, and that trainer-jockey combination alone demands respect in any maiden field at Saratoga. The 54.17 rating places her third on our board, and while she hasn't shown a published speed figure yet, Franco will have her in the right spot late in a 5 1/2-furlong dash. A solid show target at 9/2.

Race 3

6:22 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Lots of Kisses looms as a prohibitive favorite in this maiden claiming turf sprint, but a trio of live longshots — including a Wesley Ward turf runner — could make the exotics interesting if the chalk stumbles.

win7Lots of KissesML 7/5

Lots of Kisses opens at 7/5 on the morning line, and it's easy to see why — her TrackWiz rating of 89.42 is the highest in the field by more than 13 points, and she draws the red-hot Irad Ortiz, Jr. for Michael J. Maker, two names that own this meet. Her average speed figure of 57 ties for the top mark in the race alongside R P Byrne and Ilenas Kaz Way, meaning she brings both elite ratings AND real competitive speed to the table. When the best-rated horse also has the best jockey and a top trainer, you play her and worry about the price later.

place2Key ActressML 4/1

Key Actress offers the best value option in the place hole at 4/1, carrying a 75.5 TrackWiz rating and a speed figure of 54 for the Linda Rice barn with Manuel Franco up. Rice is a savvy conditioner on the New York circuit who excels placing horses at first asking on the grass, and Franco knows how to find the right trip on a short turf sprint. She's a clear second-best on our numbers and should be competitive for a piece.

show4R P ByrneML 3/1

R P Byrne draws 3/1 morning line odds for Wesley Ward — and that trainer's name on a turf maiden at Saratoga is always worth circling. Ward is among the elite conditioners for developing turf speed, and R P Byrne's average speed figure of 57 matches the best in the field. She's right there in the hunt for third at a price that makes exotics look attractive.

Our three free races give you a solid cross-section of today's action. We kick off on the Saratoga turf with Feeling Festive in the stakes opener — a marathon 2 3/8-mile test where stamina and turf breeding separate contenders from pretenders, and our model likes what it sees at 3/1. Over in Race 2, Business Math draws our top spot in a maiden claimer on the dirt, though the competitive nature of maiden events keeps confidence measured. Race 3 brings us back to the turf with Lots of Kisses, the morning-line favorite at 7/5 and our highest-rated free pick on the day — a horse who profiles as a strong top choice in a field where the pace setup looks favorable.

One theme across the free races: turf form is rewarding horses that show previous grass experience at today's level or higher. Keep that in mind when building your tickets — horses making their turf debuts without strong pedigree indicators are worth fading.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:56 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Inexorable sets up as the class of this dirt claimer, but Run Classic lurks with a big TrackWiz rating at a generous price — pace will be honest through 6 1/2 furlongs, which could set things up for a closer to swoop.

win5InexorableML 5/2

Inexorable tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.41 and opens at a fair 5/2 for trainer Linda Rice with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons — that combination is simply dangerous at any distance on the main track. Her 23% career win rate is steady, and her average speed figure of 55 is right there with the best in the field. Rice has a knack for dropping horses into claiming spots where they can dominate, and Ortiz won't waste any ground at 6 1/2 furlongs.

place3Run ClassicML 6/1

Run Classic is the sneaky value of this race at 6/1 on the morning line — her TrackWiz rating of 80.6 is a clear second-best in the field, yet she's priced like a longshot. Trainer Wayne Potts sends her out with Hall of Famer Javier Castellano up, and at 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, Castellano's clock-like timing in the stretch is a massive asset. If Inexorable gets into any kind of trouble, Run Classic is right there to pounce.

show1Mischievous MML 4/1

Mischievous M draws the rail and posts a solid 75.08 TrackWiz rating with Manuel Franco aboard for Ilkay Kantarmaci. Her 19% career win rate is consistent, and her average speed figure of 55 puts her right in contention with the top tier. From the rail in a six-and-a-half furlong sprint, Franco can save ground and park her in a nice stalking spot — she's a logical show play and a key exotics piece.

Race 5

7:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Brillante looms as a monster favorite at 4/5 in this turf claiming mile, but Artistic Success offers legitimate form at a real price — the question is whether Chad Brown's star can be caught at this level.

win5BrillanteML 4/5

Brillante is the standout of the entire card today — a TrackWiz rating of 90.0, a 33% career win rate, and the Chad C. Brown barn pointing her at a turf claiming mile where she should be the best horse on paper. Manuel Franco gets the call, and that pairing with Brown on the turf at Saratoga is about as formidable as it gets. Her average speed figure of 54 is middle of the pack, but Brown's horses routinely outrun their figures when the conditions are right. At 4/5, you're not getting rich, but you're likely cashing.

place8Artistic SuccessML 3/1

Artistic Success presents genuine value at 3/1 with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons for Joe Sharp — a trainer known for placing horses to win. Her TrackWiz rating of 82.63 is a legitimate second-best, and her average speed figure of 58 is the highest in the entire field, suggesting she can dictate or press the tempo on the front end. If Brillante encounters any traffic or pace pressure, Artistic Success is the horse most likely to capitalize.

show10AdrianML 6/5

Adrian opens at 6/5 on the morning line — short for a show horse, but the rating (78.83) and the Linda Rice/Manuel Franco combo (note: Franco also rides Brillante, so watch for a potential rider change here) justify the inclusion in exotics. His 7% career win rate is modest, but his average speed figure of 55 keeps him competitive on the back half of the field. If the favorites disappoint, Adrian is the logical fallback.

Race 6

8:04 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A massive 16-horse maiden special weight field on the Saratoga turf creates a chaotic pace scenario — big fields at 5 1/2 furlongs on grass often produce big prices, and the top of the TrackWiz board is surprisingly compressed.

win10Yolo TrainML 5/2

Yolo Train opens at 5/2 with the best TrackWiz rating in the field at 57.5, and she gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. for the Chad C. Brown barn — a first-off-the-bench combination that dominates maiden turf fields at Saratoga year after year. Brown's first-time starters on the turf at the Spa hit at an elite rate, and Ortiz knows how to get a green horse to settle before asking in the stretch. In a 16-horse field, getting that level of tactical ride is invaluable.

place12Southern KissML 3/1

Southern Kiss breaks from post 12 at 3/1 under Jose L. Ortiz for Mark E. Casse — a trainer whose maiden turf runners are always worth watching at a price. Her average speed figure of 56 is tied for tops in the race, suggesting she brings legitimate raw speed into this spot. From an outside post in a big field, Ortiz will be looking to find a comfortable position early, and if she gets a clean trip, the 3/1 looks like fair value.

show3Omi MariaML 4/1

Omi Maria draws a 4/1 morning line for the Riley Mott barn with Junior Alvarado up — Mott is a craftsman who rarely wastes a start, and Alvarado is a reliable pilot in maiden turf routes at Saratoga. Her TrackWiz rating of 55.0 slots her neatly into the third-best position on our board, and in a wide-open 16-horse field, having a horse with a respected trainer in the show hole of your trifecta makes a lot of sense.

Race 7

8:38 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A full and competitive maiden special weight on the Saratoga main track at six furlongs — the TrackWiz ratings are tightly bunched between 45 and 55, meaning pace and post position could matter as much as raw ability in this one.

win3Under the MoonML 4/1

Under the Moon gets the top rating in the field at 55.0 and draws Jose L. Ortiz for the Joe Sharp barn at a morning line of 4/1 — that's a professional operation that knows how to win maiden sprints at the big tracks. Sharp routinely develops young horses into first-out winners when the setup is right, and Ortiz is one of the best in the world at rating a horse through the first turn on dirt. In a field where the top-rated horse is only at 55.0, the connections and tactical intelligence of the rider matter enormously.

place9DavidsonML 5/1

Davidson draws the 9-hole at 5/1 for legendary trainer Claude R. McGaughey III with Tyler Gaffalione, who has been among the more dangerous jockeys at the meet. Her TrackWiz rating of 53.33 is a legitimate second-best, and McGaughey, whose stable has been pointing maidens toward Saratoga all summer, tends to get them ready to fire first time out. She's a comfortable place play in the exotics at a fair price.

show5She's Fast MoneyML 6/1

She's Fast Money opens at 6/1 under Irad Ortiz, Jr. for Jeremiah C. Englehart — and that combination is simply worth noting every time it appears in a maiden field. Her TrackWiz rating of 51.67 is right there in the mix, and Englehart is one of the sharper trainers in the barn area when it comes to pointing maiden sprinters. As a show hedge in a competitive six-furlong dash, she fits.

Race 8

9:12 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Answered Prayers dominates the ratings in this allowance optional claimer, but the pace scenario at a mile and an eighth on dirt could test her stamina — Seraphia and Brunch With Amy lurk as serious threats if the favorite gets into a speed battle early.

win1Answered PrayersML 5/2

Answered Prayers leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 and draws the 1-hole under Junior Alvarado for Hall of Fame trainer William I. Mott — a combination that has quietly been one of the most reliable at Saratoga over the years. Her 25% career win rate is solid for this level, and at 1 1/8 miles on dirt, Mott's horses are typically well-seasoned for the added ground. The 5/2 morning line is fair, and Alvarado's ability to conserve ground from the rail in a two-turn route is a genuine edge in a field of seven.

place7SeraphiaML 7/2

Seraphia goes at 7/2 with Jose L. Ortiz for Steven M. Asmussen — and while her 7% career win rate looks modest, her TrackWiz rating of 72.33 is a comfortable second-best on the board. Asmussen horses in allowance optional claiming spots at Saratoga often use the conditions as a setup race before stepping up, and Ortiz will have her positioned perfectly through the long far turn. She's the most logical place play in the race.

show4Brunch With AmyML 9/2

Brunch With Amy draws 9/2 with Irad Ortiz, Jr. for Linda Rice, and her TrackWiz rating of 70.29 slots neatly into the third slot. With an average speed figure of 54 — actually tied with the Asmussen mare — she has enough raw ability to land a piece in a seven-horse field. Rice is dangerous in allowance company at this time of year, and Ortiz will know exactly how to set her up for a late run at the mile-and-eighth distance.

Race 9

9:46 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Prairie Princess ships in as the 3/5 chalk, but TrackWiz analysis flags Bourbon Milk Punch and Mistborn as horses with higher ratings — the favorite may be overbet, making this a rare race where going against the public could yield real value.

win7Bourbon Milk PunchML 7/2

Bourbon Milk Punch is the TrackWiz top pick despite being the second choice at 7/2 — her rating of 86.35 actually exceeds the morning-line favorite Prairie Princess (60.0) by more than 26 points, which is a significant gap. Irad Ortiz, Jr. pilots her for Horacio De Paz, and with an average speed figure of 55 matching the best in the field, she brings proven turf speed to a mile maiden claimer. At 7/2, she offers the most compelling win value on the entire card if our ratings are correct.

place9MistbornML 8/5

Mistborn opens at 8/5 on the morning line, and while that's short money, her TrackWiz rating of 85.96 confirms she's right in this race. The Chad C. Brown barn deploys Tyler Gaffalione, who was booked to ride Prairie Princess as well — check the entries for any late changes — and her average speed figure of 53 is consistent and reliable. She's a natural place contender, and in a race where we think the public-favorite is overrated, she could easily be the one winning it.

show5GumML 9/2

Gum draws 9/2 under John R. Velazquez for H. Graham Motion — that's a Hall of Fame jockey and a Grade I trainer in a maiden claimer, which always gets your attention. Her TrackWiz rating of 77.37 is a strong third-best on the board, and an average speed figure of 54 confirms she belongs. Motion horses on the turf at Saratoga are historically dangerous, and Velazquez won't let her get too far back in a one-mile turf maiden.

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Today's Saratoga card is anchored by turf depth and capped by a compelling allowance optional claiming feature in Race 8 with Answered Prayers. Our top plays of the day are Lots of Kisses in Race 3 and Brillante in Race 5 — both with strong TrackWiz ratings and favorable pace setups. Subscribers get the complete picture, including pace maps, exotic tickets, and every angle we're playing. Good luck at the windows.

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