Saratoga Picks & Predictions — July 25, 2026

Ferrum draws attention at 9/2 for Danny Gargan with Kendrick Carmouche, posting a TrackWiz rating of 54.17 — second-best in the field. No published speed figure is available, but in maiden company that's not unusual, and the market respects this one enough to keep the line relatively tight. Carmouche is an underrated rider who can steal a placing from a good trip.

Foolin is the Pletcher entry here at 5/1 with Irad Ortiz, Jr., rating at 53.33 on our scale. Pletcher-Ortiz in a maiden sprint at Saratoga is a combination you never completely dismiss, even without a speed figure to lean on. She's the kind of horse that fits naturally into exacta and trifecta coverage behind Grand Yaupon.

Inspeightofcharlie sits just behind at 84.80 in the ratings and draws Jose L. Ortiz for the legendary Barclay Tagg stable. The 11% career win rate is a bit light, but Tagg horses tend to be fit and honest, and in a race this competitive, hitting the board is very much on the table at 7/2. He's a natural anchor for the exacta underneath Honoree.

Sir Oscar rates at 81.89 — third in this field — and gets the George Weaver-Manuel Franco combination, which has been productive at the Spa. A 20% career win rate gives him legitimate win credentials too, and the 3/1 morning line means he won't be a gift, but he's a necessary inclusion in trifecta and superfecta tickets given his position in our model.

C McGriff checks in at 74.06 with a 33% career win rate and gets Tyler Gaffalione for the Robert Medina barn. Listed at 3/1, this horse is the market's choice but our model still gives him the nod as a strong place contender. The 1 1/16-mile turf distance suits a horse that can track the pace and pounce, and Gaffalione is particularly adept at positioning in large turf fields.

Quiet Power at 65.62 represents a legitimate third option at 10/1, trained by the Hall of Famer Claude McGaughey III and ridden by Jose Lezcano. A 16% career win rate in this spot is workmanlike, but McGaughey rarely sends horses out unprepared, and double-digit morning-line odds on a Shug horse at Saratoga is sometimes just opportunity knocking. Include in trifectas as a solid show anchor.

Emerging Market is the public's 8/5 choice with Flavien Prat for Chad Brown — a combination that wins at an exceptionally high clip — and a 50% career win rate makes the favoritism look completely justified. The risk here is that short prices compress the value, and at 8/5 you're not getting paid much to be right. Still, a Brown-Prat horse with a 50% win rate is never something you fade completely — place tickets make sense.

Resilience sits at 51.77 in our ratings for William Mott at 6/1 with Jose Lezcano — a quieter entry in a race dominated by two high-profile names. An 11% career win rate over a mile and an eighth on dirt suggests she's faced better, and the Mott barn rarely sends an unready horse to Saratoga. At 6/1, she's a worthwhile show play and a natural trifecta addition.

Twirling Lad is just a tick behind at 76.76 for Horacio De Paz with Edgard Zayas, and at 8/1 morning line this horse carries genuine overlay potential. A 12% career win rate in turf allowance company suggests he knows how to hit the board, and De Paz has developed a steady string of grass horses that run their races consistently. If the pace collapses in the upper stretch, Twirling Lad's positioning could make him a factor.

Egyptian opens at 5/2 — the shortest price among our top three — for Richard Dutrow, Jr. with Jose L. Ortiz. A TrackWiz rating of 76.27 and 15% career win rate make this a legitimate top contender, and Ortiz on a Dutrow horse at the Spa is a serious combination. He's the horse most likely to be bet down further, so grab your show tickets early if that's your angle.

River Ride rates at 68.11 for Claude McGaughey III with Jose Lezcano, opening at 10/1 — a morning line that dramatically undervalues this horse relative to our model. A 25% career win rate is identical to Bella Knows, and in a full turf field at over a mile, stalking types trained by Shug McGaughey tend to run their best late. At double-digit odds, this is the race's premier value play on the board.

Kokomotion brings a sterling 50% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 56.67 for D. Whitworth Beckman with Tyler Gaffalione at 3/1. While the rating gap between Kokomotion and the top two is real, a horse winning half its starts is hard to ignore in any field, and Gaffalione has the tactical sense to navigate a full turf field efficiently. She anchors the trifecta nicely.

Built opens as the 8/5 favorite — the public clearly loves this one — with Irad Ortiz, Jr. for Wayne Catalano, and a 38% career win rate backs up the favoritism. At 8/5 the value is compressed, but fading a horse with Ortiz up and a 38% win rate in a sprint stakes is a risky proposition. A place bet hedges your exposure while keeping you connected to what figures to be one of the two best horses in the race.

Just Beat the Odds rates at 67.52 with a 35% career win rate — outstanding numbers for a third selection — and opens at 9/2 for Gregory Sacco with Manuel Franco. If the top two engage in a pace war through a fast half-mile, Just Beat the Odds has the profile of a horse that can close into a weakening pace and grab third. Well worth including in trifectas.

Always a Runner is the public's choice at 9/5 with Jose L. Ortiz for Chad Brown, and a 75% career win rate is simply staggering — three of every four starts have resulted in a victory. You can make the case that this horse should be the win pick on record alone, and the Brown-Ortiz combination is about as good as it gets. Our model just slightly prefers Directive, but Always a Runner is a lock for place coverage.

Counting Stars opens as the 2/1 second choice with Irad Ortiz, Jr. for Mark Casse, rating at 73.54 with a 55% career win rate — impressive credentials in any stakes field. The morning line likely reflects the respect the market has for Casse's operation and Ortiz's effectiveness, even if our model ranks him third. A 55% win rate means this horse hits the board more often than not, making him a natural show anchor.

Dancingwithdestiny rates second in the field at 81.76 with a 20% career win rate, getting Katie Davis for Michael Dini at 4/1. The gap between her and the rest of the field behind Daniella Marie is meaningful, and 4/1 represents reasonable value for a horse that our model says belongs in the top tier. Davis has been improving as a Saratoga rider, and a horse this well-rated in a sprinting turf field is a natural exacta partner.

Oklahoma Smoke rates at 68.31 with a sparkling 40% career win rate — matching Daniella Marie's — and Jose L. Ortiz takes the mount at 6/1 for Adam Rice. That win percentage in a field this large is eye-catching, and Ortiz giving up the favorite to ride this one is information worth noting. She's a strong show play and a versatile trifecta piece given her ability to win at a solid clip.

Beau Cheval rates at 68.23 — second-best in the field — and gets the Joe Sharp-Jose L. Ortiz combination at 6/1, which is a morning line that undervalues this horse relative to the rating. In a full turf field at over a mile, Sharp's horses tend to run honest races and hit the board at a fair clip. Beau Cheval is the natural exacta and trifecta partner for Rossbeigh.

Lobbyist checks in at 63.01 for David Donk with Dylan Davis at 3/1 — the second-shortest morning line in the field. A rating of 63.01 ranks third among all starters, and Donk has a history of finding spots where his maiden runners can fire a big effort. The 3/1 price doesn't offer much overlay, but the consistency of the rating makes Lobbyist a necessary inclusion in trifecta and superfecta tickets.