Daily Picks

Saratoga Picks & Predictions — July 24, 2026

Friday, July 24, 202610 racesSaratoga

It's a beautiful Friday at the Spa — clear skies, 79°F, and a 10-race card that gives you plenty of reasons to pull up a chair in the clubhouse. The Saratoga turf courses have been playing true all week, and with five grass routes on today's slate, course management and pace shape are going to matter more than ever.

The headliners are a pair of stakes races in Races 8 and 9 — a dirt route and a turf route — that should draw serious money and serious competition. But don't sleep on the earlier legs of the card: our TrackWiz ratings surfaced a couple of compelling overlays in the maiden and allowance ranks that could pay off nicely before the big crowds even settle in.

Three races are open to everyone today, with our full premium breakdown covering the remaining seven. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:10 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A maiden claimer at seven furlongs where TrackWiz ratings create a massive gap at the top — one horse towers over the field, but the secondary spots are genuinely competitive.

win7Two by Two by TwoML 9/5

Two by Two by Two (7) is the standout of this field by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 — more than 27 points clear of the next-closest rival. Brad H. Cox is one of the premier trainers in the country, and pairing him with Irad Ortiz, Jr. at 9/5 on the morning line signals the connections have serious confidence here. The average speed figure of 53 is right in line with the rest of the field, so there's no raw speed disadvantage to worry about. In a maiden claimer, this kind of rating edge rarely goes unrewarded.

place3Hanna's HideawayML 8/1

Hanna's Hideaway (3) is the value play in the exotics, sitting at 8/1 on the morning line while posting the field's top TrackWiz rating of 61.61. Trainer Lisa Bartkowski sends her out with Jaime Rodriguez in the irons, and the average speed of 54 gives her a slight edge over much of this field. At those odds, she's worth including underneath in any exacta or trifecta construction.

show8OathML 3/1

Oath (8) checks in third among TrackWiz ratings at 56.67, and the 3/1 morning line reflects public confidence in Linda Rice's stable. Manuel Franco is a polished rider who knows how to rate a horse in a route, and with a speed figure matching the pace of this field, Oath looks like a solid trifecta anchor.

Race 2

5:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

An 11-horse maiden special weight on the turf at a mile and a sixteenth — wide-open with overlapping ratings in the mid-50s and several first-time grass runners adding unpredictability to the mix.

win7Just PeachyML 5/2

Just Peachy (7) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 57.50 and brings an average speed figure of 57 — the highest among horses with recorded figures in this field. Flavien Prat is one of the best grass pilots in the game, and trainer Rodolphe Brisset has a strong reputation developing turf runners. At 5/2 on the morning line, she's reasonably priced given her advantages in both our ratings and recorded speed.

place5Margie's GirlML 7/2

Margie's Girl (5) is right behind at a rating of 55.83, carrying the highest average speed figure in the field at 56. Jose L. Ortiz up for Kenneth G. McPeek is a formidable combo, and at 7/2 she represents fair value for place tickets in a wide-open maiden turf affair.

show11Texas DandelionML 4/1

Texas Dandelion (11) ties for the third spot in TrackWiz ratings at 55.00 with an average speed of 55, matching Margie's Girl's figure. Trainer Joe Sharp knows his way around a turf maiden, and Jose L. Ortiz pulling double duty in the race keeps him engaged. At 4/1 morning line, she's a reasonable show bet and trifecta piece in a race where the margins between the top contenders are razor-thin.

Race 3

6:18 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The chalk here is a heavy favorite at 4/5, but our TrackWiz analysis points to a potential upset — the top-rated horse is sitting at 8/1 and has a rating edge that deserves serious attention.

win1Brunch With AmyML 8/1

Brunch With Amy (1) leads all TrackWiz ratings at 79.79, nearly 20 points ahead of the 4/5 favorite My Gun's Loaded, and she's available at a generous 8/1 morning line. Flavien Prat takes the mount for Linda Rice, a stable that runs well in New York allowance company. Her career win rate of 11% in an allowance optional claiming field isn't eye-popping, but the rating separation here makes her the clear analytical choice. The value case is strong — this is the kind of overlay that handicappers dream about in non-stakes races.

place3NyconML 5/1

Nycon (3) rates second in the field at 75.80 with a 20% career win rate, suggesting consistent competitiveness at this level. Tyler Gaffalione gives trainer D. Whitworth Beckman a solid steering hand at 5/1, and at a mile on the dirt, the average speed figure of 53 keeps her right in the pace conversation. She's a natural exacta partner with Brunch With Amy.

show8Bow DrawML 8/1

Bow Draw (8) posts a 74.27 TrackWiz rating and a 13% career win rate, making her a legitimate contender in the bottom half of the ticket. Steve Asmussen's barn fires regularly in Saratoga allowance races, and Jose L. Ortiz aboard makes this one dangerous. Slotting her in the show position of a trifecta at 8/1 morning line gives you a nice payout if the top two hold form.

Our three free races today span the card nicely and offer a little something for every kind of player. Race 1 kicks things off on the dirt, where Two by Two by Two tops our ratings with an 88.83 score — the highest mark of any free-race pick today — and draws a morning line of 9/5 that looks fair but beatable if the pace sets up right. In Race 2, the turf maiden at 1 1/16 miles, Just Peachy is worth a look at 5/2, though the wide-open nature of maiden turf routes means the rating spread here is tighter than we'd like. Race 3 is where we get genuinely excited: Brunch With Amy posts an 8/1 morning line in an Allowance Optional Claiming mile on the dirt, but our model has her at 79.79 — a meaningful gap from where the oddsmakers are starting her. That's the kind of value angle we live for.

On a clear, warm day like today, expect the Saratoga main track to be playing fast and even. No glaring bias concerns through early morning reports, which should keep things honest for front-runners and closers alike in the dirt sprints and routes.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:52 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

This claiming mile has a legitimate top-rated horse sitting at 6/1 while the morning-line favorite checks in third on our ratings — the kind of setup where the public and the numbers disagree, and that disagreement creates value.

win6Hours in a DayML 6/1

Hours in a Day (6) leads the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 and lands at a very attractive 6/1 morning line, making her the clear value play in this field. Trainer Linda Rice saddles her with Jose Lezcano, a rider who excels in pressing-pace scenarios at a mile. A career win rate of 18% in claiming company is serviceable, and nothing in the field rates close enough to make this feel dangerous on the numbers.

place4Awesome EmpireML 5/1

Awesome Empire (4) rates second at 78.14 with a 16% career win rate and an average speed of 54 — the highest in the field. Trainer Joe Sharp keeps him sharp and Jose L. Ortiz in the irons at 5/1 is a combo that consistently fires at Saratoga. He's the natural place horse if Hours in a Day gets first run.

show1Glen AiryML 2/1

Glen Airy (1) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 but sits third in our ratings at 76.94 — that's a rare disconnect worth noting. Irad Ortiz, Jr. and Michael J. Maker are a formidable pair, and a 14% career win rate in claiming races reflects genuine class. He's unlikely to be ignored in the wagering, so targeting him in the show slot of a trifecta keeps your costs manageable while respecting his talent.

Race 5

7:26 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A full 11-horse claiming field at six and a half furlongs on the dirt — Swaging stands clear on our ratings but is asked to carry a sprint-distance edge against a field with legitimate pace-setters throughout.

win10SwagingML 7/2

Swaging (10) is the top-rated horse in this race at 86.35 — a significant advantage over the field — and comes in at 7/2 on the morning line for Linda Rice. The average speed figure of 55 ties for the top mark among horses with recorded figures, and a 14% career win rate in claiming sprints suggests she's found the right spot. Jaime Rodriguez gets the call, and at that price, there's still some value left on the board.

place1SalmingML 5/1

Salming (1) rates second in the field at 73.61 with an average speed of 54 for Fernando Abreu's barn. Manuel Franco takes the mount at 5/1, and an 8% career win rate in sprints might undersell what the TrackWiz number reflects — sometimes horses consistently hit the board without winning. He's a natural exacta partner with Swaging in a straightforward sprint.

show11TedderML 9/2

Tedder (11) posts a 65.98 rating and a strong 25% career win rate — the best among our top three picks. Trainer Albert M. Stall, Jr. sends him out with Christopher Elliott, and an average speed of 55 matches the top figure in the field. A 9/2 morning line offers fair value for a show ticket or trifecta inclusion.

Race 6

8:01 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open 13-horse maiden special weight sprint on the turf — Wesley Ward sends out the morning-line favorite, but the ratings cluster in the mid-50s makes this one of the tougher races on the card to dissect.

win13Without HesitationML 2/1

Without Hesitation (13) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 58.33 and is the 2/1 morning-line favorite under Jose L. Ortiz for Wesley A. Ward — a trainer who has made a career of producing sharp, ready-to-run first-time starters on the turf. The combination of Ward's turf juvenile expertise and Ortiz's grass proficiency is hard to fade. While she's a maiden, Ward's operation rarely wastes ammunition at Saratoga.

place4Quartz MountainML 7/2

Quartz Mountain (4) rates second among the field at 55.83 and is also trained by Wesley A. Ward, giving the barn a strong one-two punch in this race. Jose L. Ortiz handles both runners, so he'll have to choose one — worth watching for any rider changes closer to post. At 7/2 on the morning line, Quartz Mountain is the natural backup if the Ward team splits their allegiance.

show9Girls Wear PearlsML 9/2

Girls Wear Pearls (9) checks in third among TrackWiz ratings at 54.17 and brings the top average speed figure in the race at 57 — a real edge in a sprint where early pace matters. Flavien Prat aboard for Jena M. Antonucci at 9/2 is a live combination, and that speed number suggests she could be on or near the lead at a distance that rewards pace. Include her in your trifectas.

Race 7

8:35 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A deep 12-horse allowance optional claiming on the turf at a mile and a sixteenth, with Chad C. Brown saddling two entries and one of them posting a rating that dwarfs the competition.

win4Nonna LynneML 4/1

Nonna Lynne (4) is the class of this field by a significant margin, posting an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — more than 22 points clear of the second-best runner. Chad C. Brown's stable is among the elite turf operations in North America, and pairing Manuel Franco with a 28% career win rate horse at 4/1 in an allowance optional claiming spot screams live runner. The average speed figure of 54 is right at the top of this field, and this is the kind of Brown-Franco combo that punches above its morning line.

place8Mommy's TurnML 3/1

Mommy's Turn (8) is Brown's second entry at 3/1 with Flavien Prat up, and a 50% career win rate is eye-catching — this is a horse that knows how to win. Her TrackWiz rating of 63.32 slots her second in the field, and in a race where the pace scenario on a turf mile-plus often sets up for closers, Prat's patient style could be perfectly suited. She's a natural underneath play if Nonna Lynne gets the job done.

show3Sweet AnniversaryML 6/1

Sweet Anniversary (3) posts a 62.19 rating and leads all horses in career win percentage at 37% — a number that speaks to consistent competitiveness. Jose L. Ortiz takes over for M. Anthony Ferraro's barn, and at 6/1, she's an attractive trifecta piece in a race where you're looking to maximize the return on the Chad C. Brown exacta.

Race 8

9:10 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

A seven-horse stakes at a mile and an eighth on the dirt — Fully Subscribed dominates our ratings and pairs with a stellar trainer-jockey combo, but Scottish Lassie's 9/5 morning line suggests the market sees a legitimate duel at the top.

win3Fully SubscribedML 2/1

Fully Subscribed (3) leads the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — nearly 25 points ahead of the second-best horse — and carries a 42% career win rate that announces her as a consistent stakes performer. Chad C. Brown and Flavien Prat is one of the most decorated partnerships in American racing, and at 2/1 in a short stakes field, the value is still there given the rating separation. An average speed of 54 matches the pace-setters in this field, meaning she won't be left flat-footed early.

place4Scottish LassieML 9/5

Scottish Lassie (4) is the 9/5 morning-line favorite despite ranking second in our ratings at 64.51, suggesting the public sees something they like in her form cycle. A 37% career win rate is strong for stakes company, and Jose L. Ortiz for Jorge R. Abreu is a sharp combo at any level. She's the natural place horse in what projects as a two-horse race at the top.

show5Bless the BrokenML 7/2

Bless the Broken (5) sits third in the ratings at 55.34 with a 23% career win rate, and Brad H. Cox throwing Irad Ortiz, Jr. on a 7/2 shot in a stakes field is never something to dismiss lightly. Her average speed of 54 keeps her right in the mix pace-wise, and if the top two beat each other up on the front end, Bless the Broken could be the one collecting at the wire.

Race 9

9:45 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The stakes action shifts to the turf at a mile and a sixteenth with 10 runners — Voodoo Doll's perfect career record is the eye-catcher, but Spirit of New York and Sunday Boy make this a three-horse battle royale on our ratings.

win2Voodoo DollML 7/2

Voodoo Doll (2) carries the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 86.35 and a 100% career win rate — every time this horse has run, she's won. Edgard J. Zayas takes the mount for Mark E. Casse, and an average speed of 55 puts her among the fastest in the field on paper. At 7/2 on the morning line, a perfect record in a turf stakes is the kind of profile that demands respect.

place1Spirit of New YorkML 6/1

Spirit of New York (1) is no slouch either, posting an 82.71 rating and a 33% career win rate while averaging 55 in speed — tied for the top figure in the race. Brad H. Cox and Jose L. Ortiz teaming up in a stakes at 6/1 is always a live combo, and in a race where the top two ratings are so close, a place ticket on Spirit of New York looks like smart risk management.

show8Sunday BoyML 3/1

Sunday Boy (8) rates third at 80.10 with a 20% career win rate and an average speed of 55 for James T. Ryerson's barn. Note that rider TBA is listed — watch for the jockey assignment as it could meaningfully shift the odds and the pace scenario. At 3/1 on the morning line, he's priced like a contender and the rating supports that billing.

Race 10

10:19 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/2 mi · Turf

The nightcap is a maiden special weight at a mile and a half on the turf — a true route test that will sort out stayers from pretenders, and Chad C. Brown's entry at 4/1 faces a credible threat from a 6/1 shot with the second-best rating on the card.

win4Gold SovereignML 4/1

Gold Sovereign (4) tops our ratings at 83.53 for Chad C. Brown, with Flavien Prat in the irons — a duo that consistently excels at routing distances on the turf. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's still meat on the bone for a horse whose rating leads all 10 runners. An average speed of 53 is modest, but in maiden turf routing, raw pace matters less than the ability to settle and sustain — something Brown's operation specializes in developing.

place2Limited EditionML 6/1

Limited Edition (2) sits just behind at 82.71 with the best average speed in the race at 55 — a crucial edge at a distance where the final quarter often separates horses. Ricardo Santana, Jr. takes the mount for Philip Antonacci at 6/1, and that speed figure combined with a top-tier rating makes Limited Edition a genuine threat to outrun his odds. He's an excellent place and exacta inclusion.

show9War and MajestyML 6/1

War and Majesty (9) rates third in the field at 72.24 with an average speed of 54 and Luis Saez in the irons for Dale L. Romans — a trainer who knows how to prep distance runners. At 6/1 morning line, he represents fair value in the show spot of a mile-and-a-half turf maiden where the pace often softens the favorites and allows a patiently-ridden closer to swoop.

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Today at Saratoga, the value story is Brunch With Amy in Race 3, the stakes double in Races 8 and 9 anchors the premium card, and the turf maiden closer in Race 10 sets up as a prime exotics race. The free picks give you a strong start — but if you want the full picture, the pace maps, and the ticket breakdowns, the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers. Head to TrackWiz Premium to unlock the full card. Good luck at the windows.

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