Unlock the other 6 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.

The winner is in our top 4 picks 75% of the time, across 17 tracks.

Daily Picks

Santa Anita Picks & Predictions — October 17, 2026

October 17, 20269 racesAll Santa Anita picks

It's a warm, breezy Saturday at Santa Anita — 87°F under partly cloudy skies — and the Arcadia oval is serving up a nine-race card that leans heavily on turf. Five of today's nine races run over the grass, so if you've got a feel for turf form and pace dynamics, this is your kind of day.

The marquee moment arrives in Race 3, a one-mile turf Stakes where Artislas draws in as the 8/5 morning-line favorite. Stakes days at Santa Anita always bring sharper fields and sharper money, so expect the pools to move. Meanwhile, the opener and Race 5 give us a pair of Maiden Special Weights on the grass — always worth watching for overlay opportunities with lightly raced horses whose ceilings are hard to cap.

On the dirt side, we've got a mix of Claiming and Starter Optional Claiming races where class drops and pace scenarios tend to tell the story. Nine races, plenty of angles — let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A maiden turf mile with a clear top of the market, but the morning line tells you the public has already found the play — the question is whether the chalk delivers or leaves an opening for the second tier.

win7BrazoriaML EVN

Brazoria opens at even money for a reason — a TrackWiz rating of 90 leads the field by a considerable margin, and trainer Richard Mandella's ability to debut horses on the turf at Santa Anita is one of the sharpest angles at this meet. Joel Rosario gets the call, a pairing that commands attention in any maiden race. The average speed figure of 55 tops the field, and on a one-mile turf route, a horse with that kind of raw ability off a Mandella prep should be ready to run.

place4Chair's CoinML 5/1

Chair's Coin carries a TrackWiz rating of 82.39 — second best in the race — and shares the barn of meet standout Michael McCarthy, who also saddles Island Home here. The 5/1 morning line suggests the betting public is giving this one a good look, and with Hector Isaac Berrios up, the connections are clearly serious about firing fresh. As a place play, Chair's Coin offers a safety net if the favorite hits any traffic on the turf.

show8Peachy CanyonML 5/2

Peachy Canyon opens at 5/2 and carries a respectable TrackWiz rating of 76.72 with an average speed of 54 — right in the mix for this field. Lauren Robson sends her out with Juan J. Hernandez aboard, a capable combination for the spot. In maiden turf miles, pace can get messy, and Peachy Canyon's rating suggests she has enough underlying ability to hit the board even if she doesn't threaten the top two.

Race 2

8:33 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A five-horse starter optional claiming sprint on dirt where the morning line favorite isn't our top-rated horse — pace scenario and win percentage separate the contenders here.

win2Jerry's SpiritML 9/2

Jerry's Spirit sits at 9/2 on the morning line but owns the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 84.90 — and critically, a 38% career win rate that stands out in any field. Tim Yakteen conditions the horse, and Joel Rosario, one of the best closers in the game, gets the mount in what figures to be a pace-influenced sprint. That win percentage is a real number — nearly four out of ten starts converted — and suggests a horse with class and consistency.

place4GettinbyML EVN

Gettinby opens as the morning line favorite at even money and boasts the highest career win rate in the field at 41% — that's a legitimate closer's profile. The TrackWiz rating of 79.84 is strong, and Juan J. Hernandez gives the horse a competent guide around the Santa Anita turn. If the pace gets honest up front, Gettinby's proven winning ways make this a horse you want underneath.

show3Special ClubML 9/5

Special Club at 9/5 on the morning line figures to attract heavy public support, and a 21% career win rate with a TrackWiz rating of 58.35 puts her solidly in the show conversation. George Papaprodromou has been a productive trainer at this meet, and Umberto Rispoli is a strong pick-up. The average speed figure of 56 matches the top horses, making her a legitimate threat to hit the board even if she can't match the top pair in overall ratings.

Race 3

9:06 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

Stakes company on the turf mile brings a compact five-horse field where the morning line and our ratings agree at the top — but the third, fourth, and fifth choices are close enough to keep this from being a single-horse race.

win2ArtislasML 8/5

Artislas headlines this stakes field with a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 — the clear top mark — and an 8/5 morning line that reflects legitimate chalk status. Jeff Mullins trains and Juan J. Hernandez rides, a stakes-caliber combination at Santa Anita. The 27% career win rate is honest for this level, and an average speed figure of 55 is respectable on turf. In a five-horse field at a mile, a horse with this kind of class edge should be difficult to dismiss.

place1Nesso's LastharrahML 3/1

Nesso's Lastharrah offers a compelling alternative at 3/1 with a 30% career win rate — actually higher than the favorite — and a TrackWiz rating of 79.70 that earns place consideration. The average speed of 58 is the best in the field, a number that suggests Nesso's Lastharrah could control pace and make this a grind. Jeff Bonde's runner with Hector Isaac Berrios up makes for a live stalker profile in this spot.

show4Twirling PointML 9/2

Twirling Point at 9/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 61.39 and a 22% career win rate provides solid exotics value in a five-horse field. Ricardo Gonzalez keeps the ride for Blaine D. Wright, a trainer who places horses carefully at the right level. If the pace scenario sets up between the top two, Twirling Point's consistency — that 22% win rate on a base of stakes experience — gives this horse a clear path to the board.

TrackWiz is unlocking three races for every reader today: Race 1, Race 2, and Race 3. In the opening Maiden Special Weight mile on turf, Brazoria lands at even money on the morning line — a short price, but our analysis suggests the rating of 90 backs it up. In the six-furlong Starter Optional Claiming on dirt in Race 2, Jerry's Spirit at 9/2 looks like a genuine value spot, a price that could easily be overlaid if casual money gravitates elsewhere. Then Race 3 brings the day's stakes action, where Artislas at 8/5 is the class of the field on a turf mile that should suit a horse with a strong late pace profile.

The through-line connecting these three free picks? Pace. On a turf-heavy card with warm, potentially speed-favoring conditions, horses that can control their own destiny — or pounce on a contested pace — hold a structural edge. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets across the full card.

Send me tomorrow's free Santa Anita card before post time.

Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile dirt claimer where three horses are clustered in the low-to-mid 80s on TrackWiz ratings — this is a genuine three-way battle and the morning line doesn't fully reflect the tightest trio of contenders on the card today.

win3Can't Say ThatML 7/2

Can't Say That leads our ratings at 84.31 despite a 7/2 morning line that feels like mild overlay territory given the competition. Kazushi Kimura gets the mount for the always-dangerous George Papaprodromou barn, and a 22% career win rate is workmanlike in claiming company. The one-mile dirt route at Santa Anita rewards tactical horses, and Papaprodromou's operation has a knack for placing horses in races where their numbers translate.

place7SpringlineML 5/2

Springline is the intriguing horse in this race — a TrackWiz rating of 83.72 at just 5/2 on the morning line, second only to our top pick. Ryan Hanson's runner with Armando Ayuso up has an 18% career win rate that looks modest, but in a claiming field with this depth, the underlying speed numbers suggest the horse has been running against tougher. If the pace gets honest, Springline's profile sets up perfectly as a late-running threat for the place.

show2Lovely MedagliaML 8/1

Lovely Medaglia opens at 8/1 — double-digit territory in some books — yet posts the third-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 79.79 and a strong 33% career win rate. D. Wayne Baker places this one for Epifanio Garcia, and a horse with a one-in-three career win rate showing up at 8/1 in a field this competitive is exactly the kind of overlay that pays for itself in exacta and trifecta construction.

Race 5

10:09 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

An eleven-horse maiden turf mile with a wide spread in ratings — three horses separate themselves clearly from the pack, but the large field means pace complications and trip luck will matter more than usual.

win11RepoML 9/2

Repo carries a TrackWiz rating of 84.90 — tied for the top mark on today's entire card — and opens at a generous 9/2 in a maiden field where that number should be near the top. Michael McCarthy's operation consistently produces sharp debut and early-form turf runners, and Umberto Rispoli is a polished turf jockey who excels on Santa Anita's grass course. An average speed figure of 55 matches the best in this field, and the trainer-jockey combination is serious enough to suggest this horse arrives fit and ready.

place10Is That You WingML 4/1

Is That You Wing at 4/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 68.85 is the clear second choice in our analysis, and the morning line reflects that. Dan Blacker's runner with Armando Ayuso aboard has an average speed of 54 that's competitive in a maiden turf mile. In a field this large, a horse with legitimate second-tier ratings and a capable jockey is exactly the kind of place play that keeps exotic tickets alive when the top pick encounters traffic.

show5Missed FortuneML 5/1

Missed Fortune at 5/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 64.70 represents the third tier of legitimate contenders in an eleven-horse field. George Papaprodromou sends this one out with Drayden Van Dyke — a pairing that functions well on both surfaces — and an average speed of 54 keeps the horse competitive with the field's midrange. In a wide-open maiden with this many starters, Missed Fortune's rating and connections make her a reasonable show investment.

Race 6

10:39 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong dirt starter optional claimer that features some eye-catching career win percentages, but our top pick is a price play — the ratings tell a different story than the morning line in this one.

win2I Know NothingML 10/1

I Know Nothing opens at 10/1 but carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 62.76 — a legitimate overlay if the number holds up in the pools. Doug O'Neill conditions the horse and Edwin Maldonado gets the call, a combination that fires at a solid rate in these lower-claiming optional spots. An average speed figure of 54 is competitive, and horses coming out of the O'Neill barn with improving form in sprint conditions at Santa Anita deserve serious consideration at double-digit odds.

place4Blame AshleyML EVN

Blame Ashley opens at even money and carries a 100% career win rate — which tells you this horse hasn't missed in limited starts. Hector Palma's runner with Kazushi Kimura has an average speed of 55 and a TrackWiz rating of 60, making this a legitimate morning line favorite despite ranking second in our model. In a seven-horse sprint, a horse that hasn't been beaten yet commands place respect regardless of price.

show5ImnosurethingML 3/1

Imnosurething at 3/1 with a 50% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 56.67 makes solid show sense in a wide-open sprint. Peter Eurton's horses are well-prepared in these optional claiming spots, and Armando Ayuso has been effective at this meet. Two wins in every four tries is a meaningful number in the claiming ranks — this horse knows how to hit the board.

Race 7

11:09 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Nine horses entered in a one-mile turf starter optional claimer where the morning line and our model diverge sharply — the public's 3/1 second choice trails our top pick by more than 20 ratings points, creating a potential value window.

win7Trump EraML 7/2

Trump Era at 7/2 sits atop our model with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — a significant gap over the field — and Ryan Hanson sends the horse out with Edwin Maldonado in a pairing that has shown chemistry this meet. An average speed figure of 55 is competitive for a turf mile at this level. The 14% career win rate is modest, but in a nine-horse optional claiming field, a horse with a 20-plus point rating edge isn't modest — it's a legitimate advantage.

place4Moon IceML 5/1

Moon Ice at 5/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 79.06 stands out for one specific number: an average speed figure of 57 — the best in the entire field by two ticks. Peter Eurton's runner with Umberto Rispoli has only converted at 7% career win rate, but speed figures in the upper 50s on turf at a mile represent the kind of raw ability that shows up in the exacta even when a horse runs green or gets traffic. This is the speed play in the race.

show5Back Nine StakesML 6/1

Back Nine Stakes at 6/1 offers the best career win rate among the double-digit runners at 25%, paired with a TrackWiz rating of 71.86 that slots in comfortably third. Juan J. Hernandez gives Sean Williams' horse a pilot who knows how to navigate nine-horse turf fields. At 6/1 with that win percentage, Back Nine Stakes is exactly the kind of show play that inflates your trifecta payout without sacrificing too much probability.

Race 8

11:39 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A 5.5-furlong dirt maiden claimer where two horses have separated themselves from the field on ratings, with the morning line backing them both — but at 6/5 for the top choice, the place and show plays carry more value.

win8Blame the TrackML 6/5

Blame the Track opens as the heavy 6/5 favorite with a TrackWiz rating of 89.11 — essentially tied for the top mark among all horses on today's card. Simon Callaghan conditions the horse and Joel Rosario gets the mount, one of the most coveted jockey-trainer pairings at any Southern California meet. An average speed of 55 matches the field's best, and in a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint among maidens, a horse with this kind of trainer-jockey firepower is hard to beat even at a short price.

place9Dancing Thru FireML 3/1

Dancing Thru Fire at 3/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 is genuinely close to the favorite — just three rating points separate the top two horses in this field. Sally Rivera's runner with Edgar Payeras has an average speed of 55 that matches Blame the Track, and at 3/1 compared to 6/5, the place value shifts sharply toward Dancing Thru Fire. If you're building exactas, this is your mandatory underneath horse.

show1Melba MontgomeryML 6/1

Melba Montgomery at 6/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 81.51 is the clear third choice in our model, and Steve Knapp's runner with Juan J. Hernandez gives this horse legitimate tactical ability in a sprint. The average speed of 53 trails the top two, but in a nine-horse maiden field where chaos is always possible, Melba Montgomery's rating advantage over the rest of the field makes her a confident show play at a price.

Race 9

12:09 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The closing race is a turf mile claimer with eleven horses and a real standout at the top of the ratings — though the large field, combined with claiming-level unpredictability, keeps this from being a formality.

win4City ExileML 4/1

City Exile at 4/1 leads our model with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 and a career win rate of 28% — the strongest combination of ratings and proven winning ability in the field. Steve Knapp conditions the horse and Juan J. Hernandez gets the assignment, a connection worth noting given Hernandez's turf proficiency at Santa Anita. An average speed of 55 is competitive for the mile, and a horse winning more than one in four starts in turf claiming company at this track has clearly figured out the conditions.

place11MubtadaaML 5/1

Mubtadaa at 5/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 83.04 is narrowly behind our top pick in the model, and the real standout stat here is an average speed figure of 57 — the highest in the entire field by a clear margin. Vladimir Cerin sends Umberto Rispoli out on a horse that is generating better raw speed than anything else in this race. In a turf mile where sustained pace matters, that speed figure is worth tracking for place and exacta purposes.

show3ZalamoML 9/2

Zalamo at 9/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 65.21 slides in as our third selection and offers reasonable exotics value in a deep eleven-horse field. Joel Rosario handles the ride for Dean Pederson, and while the 5% career win rate is low, Rosario's tactical awareness on grass often compensates for horses that have struggled to break through. The 9/2 morning line suggests the public sees something here too — this isn't a throw-in show pick.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Brazoria, Jerry's Spirit, and Artislas headline a free card worth playing on its own — but today's nine-race Santa Anita program has depth that rewards subscribers willing to go the full distance. Warm weather, five turf races, and at least one juicy price angle in the back half of the card make this a day to have your full analysis locked and loaded before post time. Full breakdowns, pace maps, and exotic ticket guidance are all waiting for you at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there — play smart, manage your bankroll, and enjoy the races.

← All Santa Anita picks & predictions

You're reading 3 of 9 races free