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Free Santa Anita Picks & Predictions for Today — October 16, 2026

October 16, 20269 racesAll Santa Anita picks

It's a scorcher at Santa Anita today — clear skies and 91°F on the thermometer, which means the main track is going to be fast and unforgiving. Nine races on the Friday card, a solid mix of claiming, allowance, and maiden action spread across both dirt and turf. Plenty of angles to attack.

The turf course figures to be the busier surface today, with five of the nine races run on the grass. That kind of split is worth paying attention to — pace scenarios on turf can differ dramatically from dirt, and in this heat, early speed on the grass gets tested hard down the stretch. We'll be watching trip notes closely all afternoon.

Three races are open to every TrackWiz reader, including a pair of claiming sprints and a turf dash that our models really like. The back half of the card is where things get interesting for subscribers — we've got a legitimate longshot play and some prime exotic opportunities that are hard to pass up.

3 Free Races Today at Santa Anita

Race 1

8:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

Three horses are separated from the rest on TrackWiz ratings, setting up a de facto pick-three within a field of eight on the Santa Anita turf — the question is whether the morning-line favorite or the TrackWiz top-rated horse holds the edge.

win8Luck LuckyML 9/2

Luck Lucky (#8) tops our ratings at 84.9 and carries a 16% career win rate that edges out most of the field at this claiming level. Kazushi Kimura has been sharp at Santa Anita and gives this horse a live rider in a spot that suits. The 9/2 morning line represents genuine value given the ratings edge — if this horse runs its best over the 6½-furlong turf trip, it's tough to beat.

place5Miles FinchML EVN

Miles Finch (#5) is the morning-line favorite at EVN odds and posts the field's best average speed figure at 57, so the public clearly respects this horse's raw ability. Joel Rosario aboard is never a drawback, and with an 82.02 TrackWiz rating, the even-money price is understandable — just not as attractive as the win pick for overlay hunters.

show7Hurricane WayML 6/1

Hurricane Way (#7) sits third in our ratings at 78.35 and also averages 56 in speed figures, matching the form cluster at the top of this field. Armando Ayuso rides for trainer Mark Rheinford, and at 6/1 on the morning line, this horse is an appealing exotic inclusion — especially if the pace gets contentious and a closer gets a dream trip.

Race 2

8:29 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A dominant favorite looms large in this 6-furlong dirt claimer, but the secondary battle for the place and show spots offers real intrigue — particularly between two horses who share the same barn.

win3Ima Track StarML 3/5

Ima Track Star (#3) is as imposing as a short-priced favorite gets in a claiming field — a 90 TrackWiz rating, a 50% career win rate, and Joel Rosario in the irons is about as clean a profile as you'll find. At 3/5 on the morning line, the price won't thrill value players, but the numbers justify the confidence. The 6-furlong dirt distance pairs naturally with an average speed figure of 56, and this horse simply outclasses the rest of the field on paper.

place4SinglemoreML 4/1

Singlemore (#4) is trained by Bill McLean and also carries a 50% career win rate — the same as the favorite — making this a horse worth respecting as the main place threat. With a 76.56 rating and Julien R. Leparoux up, there's legitimate talent here, and if Ima Track Star were to encounter any trouble, Singlemore is positioned to capitalize. The 4/1 morning line feels fair for a horse of this profile in exacta construction.

show1Chase N RyanML 6/1

Chase N Ryan (#1) rates third in the field at 65.27 and carries a 13% career win rate, which is respectable in a spot like this. Kazushi Kimura takes the mount, and the horse's 56 average speed figure keeps it within range of the top two. For exotic players stacking the exacta or building trifectas, the 6/1 price makes this a solid underneath option.

Race 3

8:59 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

Scene by Me is a heavy TrackWiz favorite in this 6½-furlong turf claimer but faces a wide-open secondary battle, with a surprising morning-line favorite at the top of the program whose rating doesn't match the oddsmakers' enthusiasm.

win4Scene by MeML 5/2

Scene by Me (#4) is the clear standout here with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — well clear of the rest of the field — and an average speed figure of 57 that leads all entrants. Abel Lezcano pilots for trainer Mark Glatt, who knows this circuit well, and the 5/2 morning line is reasonable value for a horse with this kind of ratings separation. On a 6½-furlong turf layout, the combination of speed and class makes this horse hard to fade.

place6Mo Holland DriveML 5/1

Mo Holland Drive (#6) comes in at 63.94 on our ratings scale with Joel Rosario taking the call for trainer Peter Miller — a formidable combination at any level. The horse's 12% career win rate is modest, but with Rosario finding angles in traffic and Miller placing horses well, this one fits perfectly as a place contender at a 5/1 morning line that offers real overlay potential for the exacta.

show7AndtheomofthebraveML 9/2

Andtheomofthebrave (#7) rates 53.04 and matches Scene by Me with a 57 average speed figure, suggesting this horse can compete on raw pace terms even if the overall profile is a tier below. Drayden Van Dyke is a capable hand, and trainer Steve Knapp has sent out horses ready to run on this circuit. At 9/2, this is a fair price for a trifecta anchor.

The three free previews today cover Races 1, 2, and 3 — a nice opening-act trio that sets the tone for the whole card. Luck Lucky draws our eye in the Race 1 turf sprint at 9/2 on the morning line, a price that looks generous given the TrackWiz rating of 84.9. In Race 2, Ima Track Star comes in as a heavy 3/5 morning-line favorite on the dirt, and frankly, the 90.0 rating backs up the public's confidence — this is the kind of horse you build your early pick sequences around. Then Race 3 brings Scene by Me back to the turf at 5/2, posting an 87.81 rating that makes her one of the stronger numbers on the free portion of the card.

One thread connecting these early races: the heat and the firm turf surface could favor horses with tactical speed over deep closers. In a sprint on grass, getting position early without burning out is everything — keep that pace scenario in mind as you watch the first few races unfold and calibrate for the rest of the afternoon.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:30 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming mile on dirt that features a genuine class standout facing a morning-line second choice whose odds don't match our ratings — the gap between the top two and the rest is significant.

win1Dottie HinsonML 8/5

Dottie Hinson (#1) is the top-rated horse in the field at 85.82 and boasts a stellar 50% career win rate — the kind of number that stands out at any class level. Juan J. Hernandez gets the mount for trainer Andy Mathis, and the 8/5 morning line reflects justified public confidence. In a one-mile dirt allowance, a horse that wins half its career starts and leads the field in our ratings is exactly the profile you want to back.

place2Baby Needs ShoesML 8/1

Baby Needs Shoes (#2) is a fascinating place play at 8/1 on the morning line — the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 79.79 yet priced like a longshot. Kazushi Kimura is aboard for Peter Miller, and a 28% career win rate is strong in this company. The gap between the public price and the ratings profile suggests real overlay value in the exacta.

show6Miss PracticalML 9/2

Miss Practical (#6) rates 64.29 with Joel Rosario in the irons for trainer Ryan Hanson — a pairing that always merits attention. The 9/2 morning line is fair for a horse sitting third in our ratings, and with an 11% career win rate, this one figures to be somewhere in the mix at the top of the stretch. An ideal underneath piece in trifectas.

Race 5

10:00 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A full field of ten goes 1⅛ miles on the Santa Anita turf in a starter allowance, and Dairago stands out as a clear top-rated horse — but the rest of the field is fairly clustered, making the supporting cast interesting for exotic plays.

win6DairagoML 8/5

Dairago (#6) leads all horses in this race with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating and a 30% career win rate that is the best among the top contenders. Joel Rosario climbs aboard for trainer Robert B. Hess Jr., and the 8/5 morning line reflects the horse's form status accurately. Over 1⅛ miles of turf, a horse with a 55 average speed figure and elite ratings should be able to control its own destiny in the stretch run.

place9Fomo JoeML 9/2

Fomo Joe (#9) is an intriguing place option at 9/2 — the horse has a 33% career win rate, which is the best of any horse not named Dairago in this field, and Edwin A. Maldonado gets the call. Despite a slightly lower average speed figure of 53, that career win percentage suggests a horse who converts when pointing to the right spot. Lorenzo Campuzano has this one placed in a spot where the 1⅛-mile turf trip could play to its closing style.

show4CaissonML 5/2

Caisson (#4) rates 71.06 with a 16% career win rate and Armando Ayuso in the irons for Mark Rheinford at 5/2 on the morning line. The rating puts this horse solidly in third on our leaderboard, and a horse at 5/2 with that profile is a natural show bet and trifecta piece. If the pace scenario sets up for late runners, Caisson could outrun the morning line.

Race 6

10:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden claiming sprint on the dirt with an all-zero career win percentage across the board — this is a first-win-seeker's field where speed figures and TrackWiz ratings have to do the heavy lifting in separating contenders.

win6He's Got FireML 4/1

He's Got Fire (#6) leads our ratings at 85.62 despite a 4/1 morning line that offers a slight overlay over the lower-rated morning-line favorite. Drayden Van Dyke rides for trainer George Papaprodromou, who has a knack for placing maiden horses in spots they can win. With a 54 average speed figure in a field where several horses have question marks, this horse's profile makes a strong case as the one to beat.

place5Mystic MosesML 8/5

Mystic Moses (#5) is the public's choice at 8/5 and posts an 83.52 TrackWiz rating — just a shade behind He's Got Fire — with a 55 average speed figure that leads the field. Tyler Baze takes the mount for Steven Miyadi, and while the price will be short, this horse is clearly one of the two most talented entrants and will be in every exotic ticket as a top contender.

show8HungoverML 7/2

Hungover (#8) is a legitimate third-option play at 7/2 on the morning line with an 82.75 TrackWiz rating that makes this a race with three horses closely bunched at the top. Welfin R. Orantes rides for Ryan Hanson, and a 54 average speed figure keeps this horse in the competitive range. In a maiden field where no one has broken their maiden yet, trifecta construction demands all three of these horses be used.

Race 7

11:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/4 mi · Turf

A competitive allowance optional claiming route going 1¼ miles on the turf — the top-rated horse is not the morning-line favorite, which creates a value angle that TrackWiz analysis finds hard to ignore.

win8Dea MatronaML 5/1

Dea Matrona (#8) tops our ratings at 84.17 with a 33% career win rate and draws Kazushi Kimura for trainer Peter Eurton — one of the stronger connections in the race. The 5/1 morning line represents an overlay versus the ratings profile, and over 1¼ miles of turf, a horse with a 55 average speed figure who converts at that win rate should be able to sustain her run into the stretch. This is TrackWiz's best value play on the card in terms of odds relative to ratings.

place2Pentle BayML 6/1

Pentle Bay (#2) checks in at 77.14 on our scale with Juan J. Hernandez riding for Simon Callaghan, a trainer who excels with grass runners. The 6/1 morning line makes this horse a genuine overlay in the place pool, and the 54 average speed figure keeps this one competitive with the top half of the field. Exacta players should strongly consider keying Dea Matrona over Pentle Bay.

show5Daring PursuitML 9/2

Daring Pursuit (#5) rates 71.61 with a 20% career win rate and goes for trainer Dan Blacker — who also saddles the morning-line second choice in this race — suggesting the connections know this route distance well. Hector Isaac Berrios takes the mount, and the 9/2 morning line feels fair. A 54 average speed figure rounds out a profile that fits nicely as a trifecta show option in a race with legitimate pace possibilities.

Race 8

11:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 12-horse maiden claiming sprint — with one scratch — on the Santa Anita dirt, where our top pick is priced at 8/1 despite leading the field in ratings, signaling a legitimate longshot-value situation in a wide-open race.

win7Thirsty CaitlinML 8/1

Thirsty Caitlin (#7) tops our ratings at 76.53 in this 12-horse field and goes postward at 8/1 on the morning line — a price that simply doesn't match the ratings advantage. Wandryck Cardoso Franco takes the mount for trainer Edwin G. Alvarez, and with a 53 average speed figure in a maiden field where several horses have no recorded figure at all, this horse carries a meaningful data edge. In maiden claiming races at this level, a significant ratings lead at a double-digit morning line is exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz looks for.

place9Chachacha ChingML 10/1

Chachacha Ching (#9) rates 63.18 and goes for trainer Steve Knapp, who also has Zayda At the Spa in the race — suggesting the barn has a read on this surface and distance. Tiago Josue Pereira gets the call, and the 10/1 morning line gives exotic players a real reason to include this horse underneath. A 54 average speed figure in a field full of question marks makes this one a strong place and trifecta option.

show3ShemakesmemadML 15/1

Shemakesmemad (#3) posts a 57.84 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field among active starters — and Alfredo L. Bautista rides for Steven Miyadi at 15/1. That price is legitimate longshot territory, but the ratings profile is stronger than the odds suggest. A 54 average speed figure and a competitive rating make this one worth a trifecta inclusion for players looking to spread on a wide-open maiden sprint.

Race 9

12:00 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

Maiden special weight on the turf going one mile to close the card — a two-horse show at the top of our ratings with a large gap to the rest of the field, though at a mile on the grass, first-time or lightly-raced horses can always spring a surprise.

win3ColumnistML 7/2

Columnist (#3) leads all horses with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and draws Kazushi Kimura for the Tim Yakteen barn — one of the more respected training operations at Santa Anita. The 7/2 morning line offers value over the lower-rated morning-line favorite, and while all horses in this field are still seeking their first win, a 53 average speed figure backed by elite ratings gives Columnist the clearest profile in the field. This is a horse whose form suggests it should have already broken its maiden, making this start a prime opportunity.

place9ZakielML 8/5

Zakiel (#9) is the 8/5 morning-line favorite and rates second in the field at 80.9 — suggesting the public is on a horse whose TrackWiz profile is slightly below our top pick. Juan J. Hernandez rides for Peter Eurton, a trainer who is always live with turf horses, and a 54 average speed figure keeps this horse in the hunt. Exacta players should be comfortable boxing the top two — the gap to the rest of the field is significant.

show2Royal RumorML 6/1

Royal Rumor (#2) rates 49.25 at 6/1 on the morning line with Edwin A. Maldonado in the irons for Carla Gaines — a trainer who places her horses strategically and has a good feel for turf racing at this oval. There's a clear ratings gap between Royal Rumor and the top two, but in a maiden field on the grass at a mile, pace and trip can level the playing field. At 6/1, this is a reasonable trifecta fill and an intriguing show bet for players wanting to structure tickets around the top two.

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A nine-race card, 91°F heat, and a turf-heavy afternoon at Santa Anita — there's a lot to navigate today. For free, lean on Ima Track Star in Race 2 as the anchor of your early sequences and keep Scene by Me on your radar in Race 3. The full-card breakdown — pace projections, exotic tickets, and our best longshot play of the day — is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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