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Santa Anita Picks & Predictions — October 12, 2026

October 12, 202610 racesAll Santa Anita picks

Welcome to Santa Anita Park on a crisp October Monday — partly cloudy skies and 62°F temperatures have the turf courses sitting in prime shape, and that matters plenty on a card that sends horses out to the grass four times today. Ten races, two surfaces, and a genuine stakes heat on the turf mile give us plenty to dig into.

The headliner is Race 7, a stakes event at a mile on turf where Pura Vida Princesa tops our board at 5/1 morning line odds. But the play we're most fired up about is Race 9 — Bad Uncle Barry earned the highest TrackWiz rating on the entire card (88.83) in an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint on the turf, and at 9/5 he may be the day's most straightforward wager. Keep an eye on the grass throughoutthe afternoon; conditions like today's tend to reward horses with proven turf form.

Three races are open to everyone today, giving casual bettors a full look at our top picks in Races 1, 2, and 3 before the premium card kicks in. Let's break it all down.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The morning line favorite doesn't align with TrackWiz ratings here — this claiming mile sets up as a prime upset spot with a legitimate 8-1 overlay at the top of our board.

win5Forza AzzurriML 8/1

Forza Azzurri heads our leaderboard with a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 — the highest in the field — despite being listed at 8/1 on the morning line. That's the definition of a value overlay, and Peter Miller is one of the sharpest trainers in Southern California at finding spots where his horses can win at a price. With a 12% career win rate, this runner is no fluke, and the dirt mile looks like a comfortable fit. If you're a win-bet player looking for upside, this is your horse.

place8Cupid's CrusaderML 7/2

Cupid's Crusader holds the second-best rating in the race at 76.07, and Joel Rosario is a tough jockey to dismiss at any level. Trained by Genaro Vallejo, this one figures to be prominent in the stretch run, and at 7/2 on the morning line, the place payoff could still deliver some value in a race where the chalk is questionable.

show7BallyhooliganML 5/1

Ballyhooligan carries a solid 70.02 TrackWiz rating and comes in at 5/1, giving you a legitimate show ticket anchor for multi-race exotics. The 16% career win rate is respectable in a claiming field, and Armando Aguilar keeps this one competitive. Use Ballyhooligan underneath in trifectas to help cover the wide-open top.

Race 2

8:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

A maiden claiming turf sprint with an entire field of winless horses — all zeroes in the career win column — making our ratings model the primary separator in what figures to be an intriguing pace scenario on the grass.

win5JetwayML 5/2

Jetway is the standout in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81, the highest by a clear margin, and Peter Miller sends this one out with Joel Rosario aboard — a barn-and-jock combination that wins at a high rate when properly placed. The 5/2 morning line is fair given the form edge, and an average speed figure of 55 edges most of the field. In a maiden turf event where the whole field is still looking for win number one, a horse this far ahead on ratings deserves to be your anchor.

place4ThrowthefirstpunchML 6/1

Throwthefirstpunch checks in at a 74.28 rating — second best in the field — and Kazushi Kimura brings real turf pedigree to the Doug O'Neill barn. At 6/1, there's genuine value here if Jetway gets into trouble or has to work hard early. The pace scenario on the turf could set up perfectly for a closer, and this runner fits that profile.

show6Fuzzy StareML 7/2

Fuzzy Stare rates third on our board at 66.35 and matches Jetway's average speed figure of 55, which is encouraging for a 7/2 morning line price. Trainer Isidro Tamayo knows this circuit, and Kyle Frey gives you a competent pilot who won't panic in traffic. A solid show ticket inclusion in trifectas at the top of the card.

Race 3

9:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Shady Tiger shows up as a heavy favorite in an allowance optional claiming mile on dirt, but the real intrigue is a pair of longshots with TrackWiz ratings nearly matching the mid-tier horses — this could get interesting in the exotics.

win2Shady TigerML EVN

Shady Tiger tops the field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.91 and pairs a strong 33% career win rate with an average speed figure of 56 — best in the race. Jeff Mullins is a trainer who sharpens his horses for spots like this, and Hector Isaac Berrios gets the call at what figures to be a short price. The even-money morning line reflects the consensus, and honestly, our model agrees — this one looks like the most complete horse in the field on paper.

place1Practical BlameML 12/1

Practical Blame is one of the most interesting plays on today's card at 12/1 morning line with a 69.71 TrackWiz rating — nearly matching Geezer despite being priced like a longshot. The 33% career win rate is elite for this level, and Kyle Frey is a competent pilot who can get pace-pressed runners into contention late in a one-mile scenario. The morning line undervalues this runner.

show5GeezerML 15/1

Geezer comes in at 15/1 on the morning line but rates 69.58 on our board — nearly identical to Practical Blame. A 25% career win rate over a solid sample says this isn't just a field-filler, and an average speed of 56 ties for best in the field alongside Shady Tiger. Trainer Genaro Vallejo's 5th-program horse is the kind of deep-in-the-card play that pays off in trifectas when the longshot sneaks into the frame.

Our three free races today cover both surfaces and three distinct condition levels — a good cross-section of the card. In Race 1, Forza Azzurri draws our attention at a generous 8/1 morning line in a Claiming mile on dirt; that kind of morning line on a horse our model rates at 79.79 is the definition of value worth chasing. Race 2 shifts to the turf for a Maiden Claiming sprint at 6½ furlongs, where Jetway (5/2) tops the board with an 87.81 rating — the best of our three free picks and a horse we think the morning line has priced correctly. Race 3 brings us back to the dirt mile for an Allowance Optional Claiming where Shady Tiger opens as the even-money favorite; when our model agrees with the crowd at that price, it's usually a horse whose numbers genuinely back the hype.

One common thread across the free races: the dirt looks straightforward today with no weather-related concerns, so pace scenario and class edges should play out cleanly. Let TrackWiz's full race pages walk you through the shape of each race.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Five and a half furlongs of maiden claiming chaos on the dirt — with zero wins among the entire field and a scattered morning line, this race is wide open and our model finds real value away from the even-money favorite.

win6TreximoML 8/1

Treximo is our top pick at 8/1 despite carrying the highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 79.79 — a significant overlay against the even-money Strike a Match. Trained by Ryan Hanson and piloted by Adrian Escobedo, this runner posts an average speed of 55 and looks well-spotted in a sprint distance that should suit a fresh, quick-footed type. When our model's top-rated horse is going off at 8/1, that's the kind of number you circle.

place5Ride the TigerML 9/2

Ride the Tiger holds a 61.85 rating and an average speed of 55, making this one a legitimate contender in the place spot at 9/2. Armando Ayuso has been active on the Southern California circuit, and trainer Brian J. Koriner places horses carefully in maiden claiming sprints. This horse figures to be forwardly placed and could easily hold on for a share.

show8Strike a MatchML EVN

Strike a Match is the even-money morning line choice, and while our rating of 60.00 doesn't make this the top horse on paper, Mark Glatt is one of the premier trainers in the region and Abel Lezcano brings real ability. At those short odds, Strike a Match is best deployed as a show hedge or underneath in exactas — this barn rarely sends out a poorly-prepared horse.

Race 5

10:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

A turf claiming sprint for fillies and mares where an interesting pace clash is brewing — the heavy favorite may be vulnerable, and a pair of overlooked horses with strong ratings could steal the show.

win2Jennys Wine GirlML 5/2

Jennys Wine Girl leads our board at 75.72 and posts an average speed of 56 — tied for best in the field — under Richard Baltas, a trainer with a sharp eye for placing runners on the turf. The 5/2 morning line is reasonable, and Edwin A. Maldonado has the fitness to keep this one close throughout a 6.5-furlong turf dash. Despite a zero career win percentage (suggesting limited starts), the ratings profile here is too strong to ignore as a win pick.

place4Lady RuthML 6/1

Lady Ruth rates third on our board at 73.03 and brings a legitimate 14% career win rate to the table. Trainer O.J. Jauregui has this runner set up at 6/1 — real value in a field where the top two horses on our board are priced more tightly. Hector Isaac Berrios gets the call, and 6/1 for a horse this close to the top of the ratings makes Lady Ruth an excellent place play.

show7Angelica BayML 9/2

Angelica Bay rates 69.41 with an average speed of 56 and a career win rate of 11% under the Doug O'Neill barn. Kazushi Kimura handles the mount, and on the turf at 6.5 furlongs, late-running types thrive — O'Neill does excellent work with turf closers. At 9/2, Angelica Bay makes a solid show ticket and trifecta inclusion, especially if the pace heats up early.

Race 6

10:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden claiming mile on dirt for females with a clear form standout, though this is a wide-open maiden field where backing the board leader at a fair price is the play.

win4MooberryML 2/1

Mooberry tops this field at a 75.96 TrackWiz rating — well clear of the second-best horse — and comes in at 2/1 as the morning line choice. Emisael Jaramillo, a reliable rider in Southern California, pilots this Doug O'Neill trainee, and O'Neill's barn is consistently productive at this level. An average speed of 55 leads the field, and in a maiden race where you're looking for any edge, having the top rating and the top speed figure is exactly what you want.

place5Awsome AmyML 5/2

Awsome Amy rates 57.50 and is listed at 5/2 morning line under Hector Isaac Berrios for trainer O.J. Jauregui. She matches several horses on average speed at 54 but gets a bump from a higher overall rating than most of the field, suggesting she should be competitive if Mooberry has any issues. At a fair price in this maiden field, she's a natural place partner.

show1Lovely MayaML 5/1

Lovely Maya rounds out our top three at 53.33 and goes for the prolific Doug O'Neill barn — meaning O'Neill saddles both our win and show picks, which tells you something about barn confidence in this race. Edwin A. Maldonado takes the mount, and at 5/1 on the morning line, Lovely Maya is a live show ticket in what is otherwise a bunch of first-time and limited starters.

Race 7

11:00 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

The stakes race on turf features a stacked field with genuine contenders at multiple price points — our top two picks are separated by nearly 9 points on the TrackWiz board, but several horses look live to hit the exotics.

win7Pura Vida PrincesaML 5/1

Pura Vida Princesa heads our board at 84.17, and the combination of Emisael Jaramillo and Doug O'Neill on the turf is worth noting — O'Neill runs a high volume of turf horses and knows exactly what he's doing at a mile on the green. An 18% career win rate over a solid career sample supports this as a legitimate contender, not just a ratings mirage. At 5/1 morning line in a stakes field, this is outstanding value for the top-rated horse.

place6TirupatiML 5/2

Tirupati comes in second on our board at 75.38 with a 22% career win rate, and Jamie P. Spencer — an internationally respected turf jockey — gets the assignment for Jonathan Thomas. Spencer brings elite turf riding experience that could be a significant tactical advantage in a one-mile stakes on grass where positioning and patience often decide outcomes.

show8Bit's Tiger MagicML 5/1

Bit's Tiger Magic is the most intriguing supporting player in this race, carrying a 70.44 rating but boasting a 44% career win rate — the highest in the field by a wide margin. An average speed of 58 also leads the field. Peter Miller's barn puts up a Ramon A. Vazquez mount at 5/1, and a horse that wins nearly half its starts on paper deserves serious respect in the exotics, even against stakes company.

Race 8

11:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short-field maiden claiming sprint where the morning line favorite doesn't hold the top rating — our analysis finds a subtle but important separation worth playing.

win5Johnny BML 3/2

Johnny B tops our TrackWiz board at 59.17 and goes as the 3/2 morning line favorite under Juan J. Hernandez for trainer Ian Kruljac. In a maiden sprint on dirt, clean early position is critical, and an average speed of 54 is competitive with most of the field. There's not much daylight between horses here, but when the favorite also tops the ratings board, you have confirmation from two angles — that's worth a confident win play.

place1Proud DanielML 5/2

Proud Daniel rates 57.50 — just a tick below Johnny B — and Tyler Baze gets the call for Jorge Periban at 5/2 on the morning line. The average speed of 54 matches most of the field, and in a tight maiden sprint, a horse that rates this close to the top is naturally dangerous in the place spot. Proud Daniel could easily reverse the order if Johnny B gets into any trouble.

show6Luka's ChoiceML 5/1

Luka's Choice rates 53.33 under Kazushi Kimura for Craig Anthony Lewis at 5/1, making this runner a logical show ticket in an otherwise compressed field. The 54 average speed puts this one right in the mix speed-figure wise, and Kimura's turf and dirt versatility means this runner won't be caught flat on a sprint track. Include Luka's Choice in your trifectas at a price.

Race 9

12:00 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

Mark Glatt saddles three horses in this allowance optional claiming turf sprint, but one of his runners stands out head and shoulders above the rest — and the board strongly confirms the pecking order.

win6Bad Uncle BarryML 9/5

Bad Uncle Barry is our top-rated horse on the entire card for Race 9, posting an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — and does so while going off at just 9/5. Umberto Rispoli is a masterful turf jockey with outstanding tactical awareness, and trainer Mark Glatt fields three runners in this race, which suggests real stable confidence in his best horse. An average speed of 58 — tied for best in the race — and a 25% career win rate round out a profile that looks like a prime win setup.

place8Nasty HabitML 7/2

Nasty Habit comes in second on our board at 77.28 and carries a 28% career win rate — one of the stronger win percentages in the field. Peter Miller's horses are always live at fair prices, and Hector Isaac Berrios is a capable pilot on the turf sprint. At 7/2, Nasty Habit is a natural place play and a serious trifecta contender if Bad Uncle Barry earns the chalk role.

show2Tap the GinML 6/1

Tap the Gin rates third at 75.21 and brings a remarkable 66% career win rate — the standout historical win figure in the field by a significant margin. Joel Rosario up for the Mark Glatt barn at 6/1 is the kind of combo you always respect on California turf. Tap the Gin's career success suggests this runner knows how to find the wire, and at 6/1 on the morning line, the show price could deliver real value.

Race 10

12:30 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

Closing out the card with a maiden special weight mile on dirt — the most prestigious maiden condition on the grounds — and our model finds separation in a field where the morning line underprices our top pick.

win7MixitML 5/2

Mixit leads our board at 57.50 and goes as the 5/2 morning line choice for trainer John W. Sadler — one of the most respected horsemen in Southern California, particularly with maiden special weight runners. Emisael Jaramillo handles the mount, and an average speed of 54 is competitive in a field that clusters tightly. In MSW events, trainer pedigree matters enormously, and Sadler's ability to develop young horses is a significant edge.

place9Will Do OneML 4/1

Will Do One rates 55.00 under Mike E. Smith — a Hall of Fame jockey whose presence in any maiden race is worth noting. Trainer Gary Mandella takes the 4/1 morning line horse, and the name connection to the Mandella family's rich Southern California tradition adds confidence. The average speed of 54 is right in the mix, and Smith's experience navigating a one-mile maiden scenario is a quiet but real advantage.

show8MoonflightML 9/2

Moonflight rates 54.17 under Hector Isaac Berrios for Simon Callaghan at 9/2 morning line. The average speed of 55 is slightly above several other horses in the field, and Callaghan is a trainer who has shown ability with debut and early-career runners on dirt. At 9/2, this is a legitimate exotics inclusion at a price that won't kill your ticket cost.

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Bottom line for today at Santa Anita: Jetway in Race 2 is our sharpest free-play value, Bad Uncle Barry in Race 9 is the highest-rated horse on the card and a must-consider for premium subscribers, and the turf stakes in Race 7 gives the afternoon a genuine centerpiece worth structuring your exotics around. It's a manageable 10-race card on a beautiful October day at one of the sport's great venues — exactly the kind of afternoon TrackWiz is built for. Full analysis, pace maps, and exotic ticket breakdowns for all seven premium races are waiting for subscribers — see you at the windows.

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