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Santa Anita Picks & Predictions — October 10, 2026

October 10, 202610 racesAll Santa Anita picks

Santa Anita is open for business on Saturday, October 10, and the Arcadia oval is serving up a loaded 10-race card under cloudy skies and a warm 83°F afternoon. Conditions are comfortable for horses and fans alike, and with the turf courses getting plenty of action today, surface reads are going to matter.

Five of the ten races are contested on the grass, including three Allowance Optional Claiming sprints that give us some useful comparison points across the card. The headliner is Race 9 — a 6½-furlong turf stakes where heavy morning-line favorite Lonesome Stew (6/5) posts our highest TrackWiz rating on the day at 89.27. That's the race circled in red on our card.

We've also got a pair of Maiden Special Weights, a Claiming race featuring a genuine longshot angle, and a closer-route turf mile to cap things off. Plenty to dig into — let's get to work.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

Mark Glatt's barn is double-barreled in this turf sprint, but the morning-line favorite isn't one of his — creating an interesting class puzzle at 6 furlongs on the grass.

win2Private GemML 7/2

Private Gem tops our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and carries a standout 44% career win rate — by far the best in the field. Joel Rosario gets the call, and pairing a live rider with trainer Mark Glatt's strong turf program makes this a compelling top choice at 7/2 on the morning line. The speed figures back it up too, with an average speed of 58 that edges out the rest of the field. At those odds, there's genuine value here for a horse that profiles as the class of the race.

place7Matt At FiveML 8/5

Matt At Five opens as the 8/5 morning-line favorite, and a 37% career win rate explains why the public will lean on this one. Juan J. Hernandez has the mount for Peter Miller, a barn that consistently puts horses on the board in turf sprints. The TrackWiz rating of 80.44 is strong, making Matt At Five a safe place ticket even if Private Gem gets the better of things at the wire.

show5DecapoML 4/1

Decapo at 4/1 rounds out our exotics coverage for Race 1, bringing a solid 37% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 77.73 for John W. Sadler. Sadler is one of the best conditioners at Santa Anita, and Tyler Baze keeps this one competitively priced. If the top two mix it up on the front end, Decapo figures to be finishing late and grabbing a piece.

Race 2

8:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight on the dirt goes to 7 furlongs with a deep Baffert entry drawing attention, but TrackWiz numbers point clearly to one standout in a wide-open field of first-time winners.

win5CheeverML 2/1

Cheever is the play here, posting the field's top TrackWiz rating at 88.54 and an average speed figure of 56 that beats the rest of the field. Trainer Mark Glatt saddles this one with Joel Rosario aboard — a jockey-trainer combo that regularly delivers on debut-type runners. At 2/1 on the morning line, Cheever is correctly priced as the favorite and our top selection in what looks like a beatable maiden field.

place4RoastML 9/5

Roast opens at 9/5 for Michael W. McCarthy, one of the sharpest maiden trainers on the Southern California circuit, and Umberto Rispoli gives this one a savvy pilot. The TrackWiz rating of 58.67 is the second-best in the field, and an average speed of 54 matches the middle tier of this group. If Cheever falters or gets into early pace trouble, Roast is the most likely beneficiary.

show1CollmusML 5/2

Collmus is trained by Bob Baffert — always worth noting in a maiden race — and opens at 5/2 with Emisael Jaramillo up. The TrackWiz rating of 57.5 slots in just below Roast, making this a tight call for third money. Baffert maidens often improve sharply in their second or third outings, so keep this one in your exotics even if the first-out effort is modest.

Race 3

9:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

A full field of ten goes to turf at 6 furlongs in an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint, with a clear TrackWiz standout lurking at a price well above the morning-line favorite.

win9Maggles McGeeML 3/1

Maggles McGee tops the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and draws the services of Umberto Rispoli, one of the best turf riders in the country. Trainer George Papaprodromou has a knack for spotting his horses in spots where they can win, and a 3/1 morning line on the top-rated horse in the field represents genuine value. The average speed figure of 56 leads the competitive set, and a 20% career win rate on what appears to be a lightly raced profile gives this one room to grow.

place6Wild West CoastML 9/5

Wild West Coast is the 9/5 morning-line chalk for Hall of Famer Neil D. Drysdale, and a 50% career win rate is the single most impressive number on today's entire card. Kazushi Kimura has been quietly excellent at Santa Anita, and this horse's TrackWiz rating of 74.33 makes it the clear second choice. The concern is whether the public price will offer value, but for place purposes this is the safest ticket in the race.

show4Troisieme EtoileML 6/1

Troisieme Etoile at 6/1 gives exotic players some price to work with, posting a 61.88 TrackWiz rating for Doug O'Neill with Emisael Jaramillo in the irons. A 28% career win rate suggests a horse that hits the board regularly, and O'Neill's operation runs well at Santa Anita throughout the fall. Use this one underneath in trifectas to boost your payouts.

The first three races on the card are unlocked for everyone, and they set the tone nicely. Race 1 kicks things off on the turf with Private Gem (7/2 morning line, 86.35 TrackWiz rating) in an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint — a solid opening play that fits the profile of a front-runner-friendly turf course. Race 2 flips to the dirt for a 7-furlong Maiden Special Weight, where Cheever earns the day's second-highest free-race rating at 88.54 and comes in as the 2/1 morning-line choice. Then Race 3 heads back to the grass for another AOC sprint, and Maggles McGee (3/1, 87.08) gives us our third free pick with a profile we like in this spot.

One thread connecting these early picks: the turf course at Santa Anita on a mild, cloudy day like today tends to be consistent and fair — no significant bias toward closers or front-runners showing in our pace projections. That makes speed figures and class the primary drivers, which is exactly the kind of environment where our TrackWiz ratings carry the most weight. The free races today aren't throwaways — they're legitimate plays.

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Race 4

9:30 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

A Starter Allowance at 7 furlongs on the dirt features a top two that are clearly separated from the rest of the field, setting up a two-horse race at the top with decent value underneath.

win3Red FlagML 2/1

Red Flag is the TrackWiz top pick here, matching Cheever from Race 2 with an 88.54 rating — and backing it up with the field's best average speed figure of 56 and a 34% career win rate. Trainer Jeff Mullins is a reliable conditioner for dirt routes, and Tiago Josue Pereira has been in solid form. At 2/1, Red Flag is correctly installed as the favorite and earns our win designation without hesitation.

place4Midway LaneML 5/2

Midway Lane is the logical spot for John W. Sadler, who has become almost synonymous with hitting the board in Starter Allowance spots at Santa Anita. A 28% career win rate and 81.78 TrackWiz rating put this one firmly in the conversation for the top spot, and Juan J. Hernandez aboard at 5/2 makes it a price worth backing for exacta coverage. If Red Flag gets pressured early, Midway Lane has the figures to pick up the pieces.

show1Native LandML 4/1

Native Land opens at 4/1 with Mike E. Smith in the irons — a legend who still delivers on the right horse. A 23% career win rate for trainer Sean Williams is serviceable, and the 59.81 TrackWiz rating puts this one clearly ahead of the bottom half of the field. For trifecta players, Native Land at morning-line 4/1 offers a nice price for a horse capable of hitting the board.

Race 5

10:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

Ten go to turf at 6 furlongs in an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint that features a tight trio at the top of the TrackWiz ratings — and a wide-open bottom half that makes exotic payouts potentially juicy.

win1Famous ForzaML 4/1

Famous Forza earns the top TrackWiz score in Race 5 at 85.62, and trainer Bill McLean puts Emisael Jaramillo in the saddle for a horse that has converted at a 25% career clip. The average speed figure of 57 ties the field's best mark, and the 4/1 morning line offers a fair price on a horse that our numbers clearly favor. In a race with a lot of mid-range noise, Famous Forza's rating separates it at the top.

place6The Loan ExchangeML 7/2

The Loan Exchange at 7/2 for trainer Antonio C. Garcia has quietly put together a 33% career win rate — a number that demands respect in any field. Juan J. Hernandez picks up the mount, and a TrackWiz rating of 82.47 puts this one right on Famous Forza's heels. For exacta players, flipping the top two is a sensible investment at these morning-line prices.

show3Billie HolidayML 5/1

Billie Holiday brings a 40% career win rate that is the best in this race for trainer Steven Miyadi — a barn that can be spotted at big prices when they're ready. Kazushi Kimura takes the mount at 5/1, and the 70.54 TrackWiz rating gives this mare a legitimate shot at third money. The slightly lower average speed of 55 could put her at a pace disadvantage in a turf sprint, but her win percentage suggests she finds a way to get involved.

Race 6

10:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A Maiden Claiming sprint at 5 and a half furlongs on the dirt is a wide-open affair of first-time winners, and our TrackWiz numbers unearth a significant longshot angle worth playing.

win5Smokem JeannineML 15/1

Smokem Jeannine is our top pick in Race 6 and the TrackWiz value play of the card — topping the field with a 69.58 rating while opening at a generous 15/1 on the morning line. Trainer Edwin G. Alvarez puts Welfin R. Orantes up, and while this isn't the highest-profile barn on the grounds, the numbers speak for themselves. In a maiden claiming sprint where all eight runners are winless, raw TrackWiz ratings matter more than connections — and Smokem Jeannine leads the field by a meaningful margin.

place4Take RevengeML 3/1

Take Revenge opens at 3/1 for trainer Craig Anthony Lewis with Juan J. Hernandez aboard, a jockey who knows how to get the best out of maiden types. A TrackWiz rating of 56.67 ties Vegas Del Oro for second in the field, and at 3/1 this is the kind of horse that anchors an exacta box for value players. The average speed of 53 is modest but competitive for this level.

show7Vegas Del OroML 3/1

Vegas Del Oro matches Take Revenge in TrackWiz rating at 56.67 and also opens at 3/1, making the two horses essentially even in our model. Drayden Van Dyke takes the mount for George Papaprodromou, and that jockey-trainer combo has an excellent read on how to rate a speed horse in a short sprint. Use both 3/1 horses underneath Smokem Jeannine in trifectas to cover your bases.

Race 7

11:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Turf

A maiden special weight on the turf at 6 furlongs draws a deep ten-horse field with three horses tightly bunched at the top of the TrackWiz ratings — and a wide gap before you reach the rest.

win10SirnamiML 3/1

Sirnami tops this field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 56 that edges out the competition for trainer Leonard Powell. Drayden Van Dyke gets the mount at 3/1 on the morning line — a rider who thrives on grass sprints at Santa Anita. This is a maiden turf debut or early runner profile, and the combination of top numbers plus a quality pilot makes Sirnami our confident top selection.

place4Fair QuestionML 4/1

Fair Question is right behind at 85.62 TrackWiz for trainer Brian J. Koriner with Armando Ayuso in the irons, opening at 4/1. The average speed of 55 is solid for a 6-furlong turf sprint, and Koriner has put together a respectable book in maiden turf events. If Sirnami runs into any trouble on the outside post, Fair Question from the 4-hole is perfectly positioned to swoop.

show9Going NowhereML 7/2

Going Nowhere might have a name to make bettors hesitate, but a TrackWiz rating of 84.53 says this horse absolutely belongs at the top of the exotics. Ryan Hanson sends out Welfin R. Orantes at 7/2, and with three horses in the 84-87 range, the show pool could get interesting. Going Nowhere rounds out a tight trifecta trio with Sirnami and Fair Question that our TrackWiz model strongly supports.

Race 8

11:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open thirteen-horse claiming field at 6 furlongs on the dirt features a trio of horses bunched between 76 and 77 in TrackWiz ratings — and our model digs out two value plays at double-digit morning-line odds.

win2Dragon KatML 10/1

Dragon Kat leads our TrackWiz ratings in Race 8 at 76.88 and is one of only two horses in the field with an average speed figure of 55 or better. Edgar Payeras takes the mount for Lorenzo Campuzano at 10/1 — a price that significantly undervalues a horse sitting at the top of a 13-horse field's ratings. A 14% career win rate in a claiming field of this size and price level is workable, and the value here is exceptional.

place5Remember AprilML 10/1

Remember April at 10/1 for Tim Yakteen is another play our model highlights, posting a 76.42 TrackWiz rating that nearly matches Dragon Kat. Welfin R. Orantes gets the call, and Yakteen is a sharp conditioner who tends to aim his horses at spots where they're ready to run. The 0-for-x win record shows a horse that hasn't broken through yet, but the figure profile says the board is coming — maybe today.

show4Darlin TamiML 9/2

Darlin Tami at 9/2 for Jeff Bonde rounds out the top three with a 76.35 TrackWiz rating and the field's best average speed figure at 56. Alfredo L. Bautista rides, and a horse that has never won but posts the top speed figure in a claiming field often gets overlooked by bettors focused on past results. Darlin Tami is the safest show ticket in the race and a must-use in trifectas.

Race 9

12:00 AM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

A turf stakes at 6 and a half furlongs features a clear TrackWiz standout installed as the heavy favorite — the question is whether 6/5 chalk is worth playing or if there's a live price lurking behind it.

win1Lonesome StewML 6/5

Lonesome Stew is the deserving favorite, leading the field with a 89.27 TrackWiz rating and a 50% career win rate — one of the most impressive records you'll see in a stakes field. Mark Glatt trains this one and sends out Umberto Rispoli, a jockey who has been outstanding on the turf all meet. At 6/5, the value isn't there for aggressive win bettors, but this horse profiles as close to a lock as racing ever offers and anchors every exotic ticket.

place6Big City LightsML 9/2

Big City Lights at 9/2 is trained by the legendary Richard Mandella and also carries a 50% career win rate — matching Lonesome Stew in that category despite a wider morning-line price. Kazushi Kimura rides for a barn that takes its stakes horses seriously, and a TrackWiz rating of 84.90 makes this one the clear second-best in the field. For exacta players, keying Lonesome Stew on top of Big City Lights is a near-mandatory wager.

show5Steak FriesML 6/1

Steak Fries at 6/1 brings an impressive 42% career win rate for trainer Craig Anthony Lewis, and Juan J. Hernandez is no stranger to stakes company. The 69.91 TrackWiz rating puts this one a tier below the top two, but in a seven-horse stakes field, show money gets distributed more easily than in open claiming races. This is a solid trifecta leg at a price that could pay nicely if the top two run as expected.

Race 10

12:30 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A Starter Optional Claiming mile on the turf closes out the card with a ten-horse field that splits neatly into a top tier of three and a wide-open bottom — setting up a clean trifecta play for handicappers.

win10Call Me SirML 9/2

Call Me Sir draws the outside post but gets Kazushi Kimura — a rider who navigates the Santa Anita turf course as well as anyone — for trainer Mark Glatt. The 84.90 TrackWiz rating is the best in the field, and while a 15% career win rate isn't flashy, the mile on grass is a discipline that rewards horses with the right running style over raw speed stats. At 9/2, this is a legitimate overlay given the top figure in the field.

place3MuscledML 5/2

Muscled at 5/2 for Patrick Gallagher posts a strong 81.52 TrackWiz rating and gets Umberto Rispoli up — a jockey who has been hitting at a high rate on turf routes. A 14% career win rate is modest, but the average speed figure of 55 is competitive for a mile turf field at this level. Muscled profiles as the kind of horse that stalks the pace and finishes with authority, making it a safe place bet.

show1DynodaveML 8/1

Dynodave at 8/1 for Charles Treece opens at a price that gives exotic players room to breathe, and a 63.95 TrackWiz rating puts this one solidly in the hunt for third money. Hector Isaac Berrios takes the mount, and a 15% career win rate in a starter field suggests a horse that competes but needs the right setup. Use Dynodave as the third leg of your trifecta at a morning-line price that could juice up the payout considerably.

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Today's card at Santa Anita is deep, turf-heavy, and full of angles — from the free-race trio of Private Gem, Cheever, and Maggles McGee to the stakes spotlight on Lonesome Stew in Race 9. Our best bet of the day sits in that Race 2 dirt maiden, and our best value play is lurking at 15/1 in Race 6. Full-card subscribers get every edge we've found, packaged into actionable wagers. Good luck out there — and as always, bet smart.

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