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Santa Anita Picks & Predictions — October 3, 2026

October 3, 202610 racesAll Santa Anita picks

It's a scorcher at Santa Anita today — 99°F under clear skies, and that heat is more than just a talking point. Extreme temperatures can stress horses late in a race, especially in routes, so we'll be watching closely for any signs of fatigue in the stretch runs. The turf courses figure to be firm and fast, which tends to favor horses with tactical speed rather than deep closers.

Ten races are on the slate today, mixing maiden special weights, allowance optional claimers, and no fewer than four stakes events — giving us plenty to dig into across both the dirt and the grass. The card opens on turf and closes on turf, bookending a program packed with legitimate talent and a few intriguing price plays worth tracking.

TrackWiz has rated every runner on the card, and a couple of our confidence numbers are pushing into the high 80s and touching 90 — meaning our models like some spots a lot. Here's how we see the day shaping up.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A maiden turf mile with zero career wins across the board — first-time starters or lightly raced types make this wide open, but the Bob Baffert barn holds a clear edge in firepower.

win5AbsolutionML 2/1

Absolution heads into this maiden mile with the field's top TrackWiz rating of 58.33 and the best average speed figure at 56 — a modest but meaningful edge in a race where everyone is searching for their first win. Mike E. Smith in the irons is never a throwaway angle; he's a Hall of Famer who knows how to coax a debut runner home. The 2/1 morning line suggests the market agrees, and the Baffert barn has the resources to send out a well-prepared first-timer. As the class of this field on paper, Absolution is our top selection.

place2HoaxerML 5/2

Hoaxer is the other Baffert entrant and matches Absolution's average speed figure at 55 while posting a TrackWiz rating of 57.5 — the second-best mark in the field. With Joel Rosario aboard, this horse gets a top-five rider who can place him ideally in a turf mile pace scenario. The 5/2 morning line offers fair value for a horse who figures to be running late and grabbing a piece.

show1Dream SeekerML 3/1

Dream Seeker draws the rail under Juan J. Hernandez for the Michael W. McCarthy stable and carries a 56.67 TrackWiz rating — third best in the field. Post one on turf can be tricky, but a one-mile trip gives Hernandez time to work out a ground-saving trip if the pace develops in front. A sneaky inclusion for exotics at 3/1.

Race 2

8:29 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A dirt sprint stakes that looks like a two-horse battle on paper — but the real intrigue is whether a massive talent gap at the top means value lurks underneath at nice odds.

win1ThermalML 2/1

Thermal is the standout here — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that towers over the field and a 28% career win rate that backs it up as a proven performer at the stakes level. Joel Rosario gets the call for John W. Sadler, a trainer who rarely sends out horses unprepared in spot races like this. At 2/1 on the morning line, this isn't a value play, but the numbers say Thermal is simply the best horse in the race over 6½ furlongs of dirt.

place3Our MoonlightML 6/1

Our Moonlight represents real upside at 6/1 morning line odds — a 78.13 TrackWiz rating that puts her firmly second in class, and a 20% career win rate that shows she's been competitive in similar company. Trainer Dean Pederson has her pointed here, and Tiago Josue Pereira gets a live mount. If Thermal gets into any kind of speed duel up front, Our Moonlight could be flying late to secure the runner-up spot.

show4Paradise CityML 7/2

Paradise City has won 26% of career starts — a respectable strike rate at the stakes level — and Saffie A. Joseph Jr. is one of the sharpest conditioners in the game at getting horses ready for spots like this. A 63.85 TrackWiz rating puts her third in the field. At 7/2, she's not a barn-burner play, but she's a safe show inclusion for anyone building an exacta or trifecta underneath.

Race 3

9:01 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The Baffert barn dominates the entries in this 1 1/16-mile dirt stakes, sending out three runners — but the question is whether Holmby's class edge holds up against stablemate Deluge's perfect record and the best speed figure in the race.

win2HolmbyML 9/5

Holmby is our top selection with a commanding 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field — backed by a 66% career win rate that is exceptional at the stakes level. Ricardo Gonzalez partners with Baffert for this one, and the 9/5 morning line reflects a horse the market views as legitimate. At 1 1/16 miles on dirt, Holmby's profile screams class, and that rating gap over the rest is hard to dismiss.

place6DelugeML 8/5

Deluge is fascinating — a perfect 100% career win rate and the field's top average speed figure of 57, paired with a respectable 59.0 TrackWiz rating. Juan J. Hernandez aboard a Baffert horse at 8/5 is always a live ticket, and those workout-backed figures suggest this horse is training up to the task. The risk is that Holmby is simply better on paper, but Deluge's unbeaten record and pure speed make a place finish very bankable.

show1Quattro PassiML 5/2

Quattro Passi rounds out the Baffert trio with a 57.5 TrackWiz rating and a 50% career win percentage — solid credentials for a show ticket at 5/2. Mike E. Smith rarely wastes a trip, and with multiple Baffert runners in the field, race tactics could favor one of the stablemates setting up a perfect trip for the others. Don't sleep on Quattro Passi as an exotic underneath play.

The first three races are unlocked for every reader, and they give us a nice cross-section of today's card. We open with Absolution in Race 1, a mile maiden on the turf where our model gives a modest edge at a fair morning line — a good spot to ease in without a ton of false favorites clouding the picture. Races 2 and 3 are both dirt stakes, and that's where things get serious. Thermal (Race 2, 6½ furlongs) and Holmby (Race 3, 1 1/16 miles) both carry TrackWiz ratings in the upper 80s, and both are positioned at morning lines that could compress fast once money hits the windows.

One thread connecting these early stakes races: on a blazing-hot day like this, pace scenario matters more than usual. Horses that can settle into a comfortable rhythm early rather than battling for position will have a big advantage come the top of the stretch. Keep that in mind as you watch the fractions in Races 2 and 3 — how the pace develops will tell you a lot about what to expect in the premium races later in the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:32 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

This six-furlong allowance optional claiming on the turf features a legitimate standout in Frank Bullitt, but value hunters will find a couple of intriguing alternatives at generous prices in a wide-open supporting cast.

win3Frank BullittML 2/1

Frank Bullitt tops our ratings at 88.54 — a significant margin over the field — while posting an average speed figure of 57 that matches the top tier here. Tyler Baze is a veteran turf specialist who knows this course inside and out, and trainer Debbie Winick has this horse spotted perfectly at the AOC level. The 2/1 morning line is fair given the class edge, and this is a horse you want onside in any exotic.

place5JetovatorML 5/1

Jetovator is the value play we're building underneath at 5/1 — a 73.78 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 57 that ties for the field's best alongside Frank Bullitt and Owl. Trainer Peter Eurton is sharp at placing horses correctly, and Emisael Jaramillo brings live energy to any mount. A 16% career win rate looks modest, but the raw speed numbers suggest this horse can be closer than that in the right pace setup.

show1King's RideML 5/1

King's Ride sits at 5/1 morning line with a 71.31 TrackWiz rating that puts him firmly in the mix — Juan J. Hernandez aboard a horse trained by Craig Anthony Lewis on a turf course where a ground-saving trip from post one can be worth multiple lengths. A 16% career win rate won't wow anyone, but the rating and the post-rider combo make him a logical show alternative for trifecta builders.

Race 5

10:02 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse maiden sprint on the dirt where Angel's Ember arrives as a short-priced favorite — but the field is close enough on speed figures that an upset is very much in play.

win2Angel's EmberML 6/5

Angel's Ember owns the field's top TrackWiz rating at 59.67 and draws the services of Juan J. Hernandez, who has been one of the hottest jockeys at Santa Anita this meet. Trainer Antonio C. Garcia has this first-time type prepped to fire a big debut effort, and the 6/5 morning line reflects public confidence. In maiden events where the favorite is sharp, taking the chalk and building exotics around her is often the right move.

place5D's Four Thumbs UpML 7/2

D's Four Thumbs Up comes in at 7/2 on the morning line with a 55.83 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field — and Kent J. Desormeaux, a Hall of Famer who knows how to get the most out of a horse at six furlongs. Trainer Aggie Ordonez is patient with her young horses, and the second betting choice in a maiden race often ends up saving ground and hitting the board when the heavy favorite gets all the pressure early.

show1Morning GlassML 6/1

Morning Glass draws post one with a 51.67 TrackWiz rating and a respectable average speed figure of 53 for trainer Edward R. Freeman. Kazushi Kimura in the irons is one of the shrewdest tactical riders in the game right now, and the rail post gives him a decision point early — either clear out to daylight or stay patient and save ground through the turn. At 6/1, Morning Glass is a worthwhile show ticket or low-cost trifecta inclusion.

Race 6

10:34 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 fur · Turf

A five-furlong turf sprint stakes shapes up as a pace-forward battle — and Omaha Spirit's perfect career record at a top-tier barn makes her tough to beat, though the price on Off in the Corner offers genuine place value.

win2Omaha SpiritML 8/5

Omaha Spirit carries a 100% career win rate into this spot — the only horse in the field with a perfect record — and backs it up with the best average speed figure of 57 and a 59.0 TrackWiz rating good enough to top the field. Wesley A. Ward is arguably the best sprint turf trainer in North America, and Juan J. Hernandez is a proven closer on this course. At 8/5, the price isn't generous, but the profile is as clean as it gets.

place7Off in the CornerML 5/2

Off in the Corner is the place play here at 5/2 — a 57.5 TrackWiz rating that nearly matches Omaha Spirit, a 50% career win rate, and Joel Rosario in the irons. Trainer Peter Miller fires regularly on the turf sprint circuit, and Rosario knows how to get a horse into position over a tight five-furlong course. If there's any pace collapse up front, Off in the Corner is the most likely beneficiary.

show6Arctic WolfML 2/1

Arctic Wolf brings a 52.92 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 56 to the table — third best in the field — with Emisael Jaramillo up for trainer Jack Sisterson, who is dangerous in spots like this. A 33% career win rate is solid, and at 2/1 on the morning line Arctic Wolf will likely be well-backed. Show tickets are fair value, and the horse's speed figure suggests he can at minimum run into the money.

Race 7

11:04 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Bob Baffert saddles four of the six runners in this 1 1/16-mile dirt stakes, but Hughes stands head and shoulders above the field with a dominant rating and a perfect career record — the only question is whether the short price is worth the risk.

win2HughesML 4/5

Hughes is as close to a standout as you'll see in a stakes race — a 90.0 TrackWiz rating that tops the field by a wide margin, a 100% career win rate, and Juan J. Hernandez in the irons for Baffert. At 4/5, yes, the price requires you to risk more than you stand to gain, but the numbers justify the chalk. When a horse's rating is this far ahead of the competition, the math still works in win parlays or as the anchor of an exacta.

place4Imperial HonorML 9/5

Imperial Honor is the other horse in this field with a perfect career record and comes in at 9/5 morning line with a 58.67 TrackWiz rating. Joel Rosario aboard a Baffert horse at this distance is a strong angle, and if the race sets up with any pressure on Hughes early, Imperial Honor has the tactical speed to sit just off the pace and pounce. A terrific place ticket anchor.

show6DomusML 8/1

Domus is a 8/1 longshot on the morning line but brings a 48.33 TrackWiz rating and a 50% career win rate — not embarrassing credentials in a Baffert-heavy field. Kazushi Kimura can get patient horses into rhythm late, and if the Baffert pair of Hughes and Imperial Honor clear the field early and tire each other out at the top of the stretch, Domus could be the one picking up the pieces for an exotic payout.

Race 8

11:36 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

A deep nine-horse allowance optional claiming field on the turf at six furlongs — our top pick flies under the radar at 8/1, making this race a prime opportunity for value players to land a meaningful score.

win9Saul ElliottML 8/1

Saul Elliott is our TrackWiz value play in Race 8 — an 8/1 morning line underlay against a field where the top rating actually belongs to him at 79.79, the highest in the race. Trainer Peter Miller thrives on the turf circuit and Armando Aguilar is no stranger to winning on grass at Santa Anita. A 14% career win rate looks sleepy on the surface, but the rating says this horse has the ability to beat this field, and at 8/1 the reward is worth the risk.

place3Courtside ActionML 4/1

Courtside Action rates second in the field at 77.77 and brings a gaudy 50% career win rate to the table — the best in this field — which suggests she wins at a high clip when conditions are right. Ricardo Gonzalez gets the mount for trainer Andy Mathis, and the 4/1 morning line is fair value for a horse that scores half the time she runs. A solid place bet and exacta anchor if you're trying to build a ticket.

show2Disko TributeML 6/1

Disko Tribute posts a 73.41 TrackWiz rating with the field's best average speed figure at 57 — raw pace is something that plays in any scenario on a turf sprint course. Kazushi Kimura has shown a knack for timing his moves on the grass, and trainer Craig Dollase knows how to fit horses to conditions. At 6/1, Disko Tribute rounds out a logical exacta or trifecta play in what figures to be a pace-honest race.

Race 9

12:06 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A 6½-furlong dirt allowance optional claiming with a fascinating pace dynamic — the morning-line favorite brings a perfect record, but our top pick's superior rating at 5/1 makes this a compelling spot for value players to get involved.

win6Stay BossyML 5/1

Stay Bossy is the pick here with the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 84.17 — a significant edge over the competition — and Kazushi Kimura aboard for trainer Steven Miyadi, who places his horses deliberately in spots they can win. The 5/1 morning line represents genuine overlay territory for a horse whose rating suggests she's the best in the field. A 25% career win rate on paper doesn't tell the full story when the quality-adjusted numbers look this sharp.

place8Beautiful DawnML 7/5

Beautiful Dawn is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 with a perfect 100% career win rate and Joel Rosario in the irons — this horse knows how to win and gets a Hall of Fame-caliber pilot. Trainer Aggie Ordonez has her pointing here in top form, and the 59.33 TrackWiz rating is second in the field. Even if Stay Bossy runs her down, Beautiful Dawn's tactical speed should be good enough to secure the place spot.

show5TashieML 2/1

Tashie comes in at 2/1 with a 58.33 TrackWiz rating and a 50% career win rate for trainer Antonio C. Garcia, who also saddles Caps d'Oro in this spot. Juan J. Hernandez is a top-three pick for any jockey colony in Southern California, and at 6½ furlongs Tashie has the pace profile to stay close and hold on late. A logical show ticket that also makes sense as the third leg of a trifecta.

Race 10

12:36 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/4 mi · Turf

The card closes with a deep 1¼-mile turf stakes featuring an 11-horse field and a dominant favorite — Thought Process arrives with a near-perfect rating and a 55% career win rate that dwarfs the competition.

win1Thought ProcessML 4/5

Thought Process is as close to a lock as this sport allows — a 90.0 TrackWiz rating that ties for the highest on today's card, a 55% career win rate that is exceptional at any level, and trainer Philip D'Amato, one of the elite turf conditioners in North America. Hector Isaac Berrios picks up the mount and should have no trouble tracking the pace over the classic 1¼-mile turf trip. At 4/5 you're not getting rich, but the numbers are overwhelming.

place9May Day ReadyML 5/1

May Day Ready is the horse to beat for second at 5/1 — a 74.72 TrackWiz rating that is comfortably second in the field and an average speed figure of 55 that holds up well at this distance. Kazushi Kimura is sharp on the grass, and trainer Richard E. Mandella is a Santa Anita institution who knows this course better than almost anyone. A 38% career win rate adds confidence this horse hits the board with regularity.

show11VrontiML 6/1

Vronti rounds out the exotics at 6/1 with a 63.36 TrackWiz rating, third best in the race, for trainer H. Graham Motion — a conditioner with a long track record of preparing turf horses for routes like this. Juan J. Hernandez gets the call, which gives Vronti a rider capable of engineering a patient trip over 1¼ miles. With a 50% career win rate, this horse has clearly been competitive in quality spots before and deserves inclusion in trifecta and superfecta tickets.

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Today's Santa Anita card has genuine star power — four stakes races, two horses our model rates at 90, and enough heat and pace intrigue to keep things unpredictable all afternoon. Our free best bets in Races 1, 2, and 3 are solid starting points, but the real opportunities — especially the value angle on Saul Elliott and the full exotic strategy around Hughes and Thought Process — are in the premium breakdown. Bet smart, stay hydrated (you and the horses both), and good luck at the windows.

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