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Santa Anita Picks & Predictions — May 25, 2026

Monday, May 25, 202610 racesSanta Anita

Happy Memorial Day weekend at Santa Anita. The San Gabriel Mountains are doing their part — it's a gorgeous 76°F under clear skies, which means the turf courses should be riding fast and the main track will be consistent all afternoon. Perfect conditions for a 10-race card that has a little something for everyone.

We've got three Stakes races scattered across the card, a pair of turf Allowance Optional Claimers bookending them, and a Maiden Special Weight on the grass to close things out. The headliner is Race 5 — a 1¼-mile dirt Stakes that features Malarchuk at 8/5 on the morning line, the kind of distance test where pace scenario can make or break a ticket. Stakes action continues in Race 6 and Race 8 on the turf, giving grass bettors plenty to dig into.

TrackWiz has full ratings on all 10 races. Three races are open to everyone today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and our top picks in those spots range from a savvy turf sprinter to a dirt Maiden we think is ready to break through.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

A wide-open allowance optional claimer on the turf where the morning line is scattered and no horse looks dominant on paper — the TrackWiz ratings tell a very different story from the oddsboard.

win4YacowlefML 9/2

Yacowlef (4) carries the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 80.8 despite a morning line of just 9/2, which represents genuine wagering value if that number holds. Trainer Hector O. Palma has this horse showing a 21% career win rate, and the average speed figure of 58 leads the entire field. Jockey Emisael Jaramillo is a capable handler on the local circuit, and at six furlongs on the turf, this looks like a prime setup for a horse whose ratings say he's being underestimated by the morning line makers.

place5MubtadaaML 15/1

Mubtadaa (5) opens at a generous 15/1 on the morning line but posts the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 69.58 — a significant gap between public perception and our analytical model. Kyle Frey gets the mount for trainer Vladimir Cerin, and while the 16% career win rate isn't flashy, the horse's speed figure of 56 is respectable in this spot. At those odds, he's a must-use in exactas and trifectas as a live overlay.

show8Sir RocketML 5/1

Sir Rocket (8) lands Joel Rosario, one of the premier riders in the country, and trainer Neil D. Drysdale — a combo that commands respect any time they send one out. A 33% career win rate is the best of any horse in this field, and the TrackWiz rating of 62.54 slots him solidly in the top half of the field. At 5/1 on the morning line, he's not a bargain, but Rosario rarely accepts losing mounts, making him a safe show anchor in tickets.

Race 2

8:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The favorite by the numbers is also the morning-line favorite here, but there's a sneaky overlay lurking in the middle of the pack that the TrackWiz model is very high on.

win6Ya'll ComeML 8/5

Ya'll Come (6) is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and justifies that status with a field-topping TrackWiz rating of 89.12 — the highest score in this six-furlong dirt claimer by a comfortable margin. The average speed figure of 56 also leads the field, and jockey Alfredo L. Bautista takes the call for trainer Jorge Farias. With a 16% career win rate that's modest on the surface, the model is suggesting this horse runs well above its historical average — look for a forward-pressing effort here.

place5NovinophobiaML 8/1

Novinophobia (5) opens at 8/1 but owns the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 79.34 — a strong overlay if those morning-line odds hold. Trainer Bill McLean sends this one out with Armando Ayuso aboard, and the 12% career win rate masks what the speed and ratings suggest is a form cycle worth respecting. In a six-horse field, getting 8/1 on the second-best horse by our model is exactly the kind of place price worth targeting.

show1Cupid's CrusaderML 6/1

Cupid's Crusader (1) sports a TrackWiz rating of 75.08 — third-best in the field — and draws the services of Emisael Jaramillo for trainer Alfredo P. Marquez. The 8% career win rate is a yellow flag, but the show position is about hitting the board, and with a rating gap this wide between the top three horses and the rest, Cupid's Crusader looks like a solid trifecta anchor at 6/1 on the morning line.

Race 3

9:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint on the dirt with a full field of first-time or winless runners — TrackWiz sees a clear top choice that's being overlooked by the morning-line oddsmakers, making this a potential value opportunity.

win2Salty SissML 4/1

Salty Siss (2) is the standout in this nine-horse maiden field with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 that dwarfs the competition, yet opens at a workable 4/1 on the morning line. Emisael Jaramillo gets the mount for trainer Vann Belvoir, and while this is a maiden race where any horse could surprise, a rating advantage this large in a field where everyone is winless is a meaningful signal. The average speed figure of 55 ties for the field's best, adding another layer of confidence to the selection.

place8OliviaML 2/1

Olivia (8) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and earns that chalk status with a TrackWiz rating of 67.66 — second in the field. Kazushi Kimura takes the mount for trainer Ryan Hanson, and even though the career win rate sits at zero (she's a maiden, after all), the model sees something in her workouts and form that the public has already priced in. She's a logical key in place exotics given the level of support she's already attracting.

show7We Salute YouML 9/2

We Salute You (7) offers an interesting angle with trainer Peter Miller, who is well-regarded on the Southern California circuit and doesn't run maidens without purpose. The TrackWiz rating of 54.17 places her third in the field, and an average speed of 56 — the best number in the entire race — suggests she may have more raw ability than her current position implies. At 9/2 on the morning line, she's a fair price for a show anchor in an unpredictable maiden race.

The free portion of today's card kicks off with a trio of sprint races that set the tone early. In Race 1, Yacowlef (9/2 ML, TrackWiz rating 80.8) draws our attention in a six-furlong Allowance Optional Claimer on the turf — with the course riding firm today, front-runners and pace-pressers tend to hold a slight edge, and we'll see whether Yacowlef can exploit that. Race 2 flips to dirt for a six-furlong Claiming sprint, and Ya'll Come (8/5 ML, rating 89.12) comes in with the strongest number of the free trio — that's a figure that commands respect at any level. Then Race 3 rounds out the free card with a Maiden Claiming sprint on dirt, where Salty Siss (4/1 ML, rating 85.62) represents real value against a field that hasn't found the winner's circle yet.

The common thread through all three: distance is six furlongs or less, and on a clear, dry afternoon at Santa Anita, early pace will be contested. Horses who can sit just off the leader — or who have the tactical speed to grab a clean trip — are the ones to focus on. Salty Siss at 4/1 is the most intriguing value play of the bunch if the pace sets up right.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:30 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

The morning-line favorite in this turf route is a first-timer getting a lot of public respect, but the TrackWiz model is pointing in a completely different direction — creating a potential overlay situation worth exploiting.

win5Stop DiggingML 8/1

Stop Digging (5) opens at 8/1 on the morning line despite owning the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 79.79, making this one of the more compelling value plays on the card. Simon Callaghan is a sharp trainer for routes on the grass, and Emisael Jaramillo takes the call here — a capable pairing. With a 20% career win rate and an average speed of 55 over a mile and an eighth on turf, Stop Digging looks like a horse that fits the conditions perfectly and is being gifted a generous number by the public.

place7ResolveML 2/1

Resolve (7) is the morning-line second choice at 2/1 and earns it with a TrackWiz rating of 75.29, backed by Flavien Prat — one of the sharpest turf jockeys in the country. The 7% career win rate is lower than you'd like, but Prat doesn't take mounts he doesn't believe in, and trainer Leonard Powell has this one pointed right. He's a strong place option even if our top pick fires.

show4Going DeepML 10/1

Going Deep (4) is an intriguing show play at 10/1 on the morning line, bringing a 28% career win rate that's legitimately strong and a TrackWiz rating of 69.14 — third in the field. Trainer Mark Glatt is excellent on the local circuit, and Edwin A. Maldonado provides a capable hand in the irons. At double-digit morning-line odds with the third-best rating in the race, Going Deep is a prime trifecta inclusion.

Race 5

10:00 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/4 mi · Dirt

Stakes company at a mile and a quarter on the dirt, and the TrackWiz model splits sharply from the morning-line favorite — the chalk by ratings is not the chalk by the odds, setting up a potential overlay at the windows.

win4MalarchukML 8/5

Malarchuk (4) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.12 and is the morning-line favorite at 8/5, so the public and the model agree here — this horse is the one to beat. Juan J. Hernandez picks up the mount for Michael W. McCarthy, a top-shelf trainer who knows how to spot horses in the right spot. A 33% career win rate in stakes company is impressive, and with an average speed figure of 54, Malarchuk has the class and the back figures to handle this field.

place1Forged SteelML 4/1

Forged Steel (1) is a legitimate threat at 4/1, backing up a TrackWiz rating of 78.61 with a 23% career win rate — solid credentials for a stakes runner. Flavien Prat takes the mount for Saffie A. Joseph, Jr., a nationally recognized trainer who wins at a high clip with horses in peak form. The inside post at a mile and a quarter on dirt can be advantageous if he gets a clean trip, and at 4/1, the place price should be generous.

show3SubsanadorML 2/1

Subsanador (3) is the second morning-line choice at 2/1 and carries the prestige of trainer Richard E. Mandella — a Hall of Famer who rarely sends horses to stakes without a purpose. Mike E. Smith, another Hall of Famer in the irons, gives this horse every chance. The 33% career win rate matches Malarchuk's, and while the TrackWiz rating of 47.63 slots him below our top two, the connections alone make him a must-include in show and trifecta positions.

Race 6

10:30 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A loaded turf stakes at a mile and an eighth where the morning-line favorite gets significant pushback from the TrackWiz model, which sees a 9/2 shot as nearly as dangerous as the chalk.

win5Thought ProcessML 7/5

Thought Process (5) is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 and earns every bit of that status with a TrackWiz rating of 85.57 and a 57% career win rate — the best winning percentage in the entire field. Hector Isaac Berrios has the call for Philip D'Amato, a master at placing turf horses in the right spot. With an average speed figure of 55 matching the field's best, this horse is doing everything right on paper and looks like the class of the field.

place7RashmiML 9/2

Rashmi (7) is where the real wagering intrigue lies — a 9/2 morning-line price with a TrackWiz rating of 84.9, just a hair below our top pick. Kazushi Kimura gets the mount for Jonathan Thomas, and the 50% career win rate is staggering for any horse, let alone one opening at these odds. The model sees essentially a dead heat between Thought Process and Rashmi, which means getting 9/2 on the latter is genuine overlay territory.

show6VrontiML 4/1

Vronti (6) brings a 66% career win rate — the single highest number on today's entire card — for trainer H. Graham Motion, one of the most respected conditioners in American racing. Juan J. Hernandez takes the call, and the 4/1 morning line is fair for a horse of this caliber. The TrackWiz rating of 67.55 suggests she's a level below the top two, but in a show capacity, a horse winning two-thirds of its career starts is exactly who you want on your ticket.

Race 7

11:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A competitive claiming sprint at five and a half furlongs on the dirt where the top two horses by TrackWiz rating are also the two morning-line co-favorites — the model and the public are aligned, but there's show value lurking at the right price.

win3One Smokin DudeML 9/5

One Smokin Dude (3) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 and opens as the morning-line co-favorite at 9/5. Trainer Librado Barocio sends this one out with Tiago Josue Pereira, and the 30% career win rate is legitimately strong for a claimer. At five and a half furlongs, pace figures to be fast and contested, but One Smokin Dude's rating advantage suggests he has the ability to sit just off the pace and pounce — a profile that works well in claiming sprints.

place9Dirty WordsML 2/1

Dirty Words (9) is the other co-favorite at 2/1 and earns the support with a TrackWiz rating of 86.36 — just a touch behind One Smokin Dude. Armando Ayuso takes the mount for trainer Isidro Tamayo, who interestingly also conditions Tiz's Harbor in this race, giving the barn two shots. A 27% career win rate and an average speed of 56 matching the field's best puts Dirty Words squarely in the mix, and at 2/1, the place price should still be worth collecting.

show4Bluegrass Go GoML 5/1

Bluegrass Go Go (4) offers legitimate value at 5/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 67.13 — third in the field and a meaningful step above the rest of the pack. Antonio Fresu picks up the mount for trainer Steve R. Knapp, and while the 10% career win rate is a concern, the rating and pace scenario suggest a horse capable of finishing in the money. In a nine-horse field with two clear top choices, getting 5/1 on the third-best horse makes for an attractive show parlay.

Race 8

11:30 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

The morning-line favorite in this turf stakes at a mile is a well-connected runner, but TrackWiz sees a significant challenger carrying the top rating in the field — this could be a profitable race for those willing to side against the chalk.

win1El PotenteML 3/1

El Potente (1) carries the top TrackWiz rating in this nine-horse turf stakes at 87.08 and opens at a very fair 3/1 on the morning line. Trainer Dan Blacker saddles this one up with Hector Isaac Berrios in the irons, and a 35% career win rate speaks to a horse who knows how to win. The average speed figure of 57 leads every horse in the race, which in a turf mile is a particularly meaningful edge — top-end speed figures on the grass tend to hold up better than on dirt.

place5AlmendaresML 5/1

Almendares (5) is a sharp place option at 5/1 on the morning line for trainer Philip D'Amato, who is as good as anyone in Southern California at placing turf horses. Antonio Fresu gets the call, and the TrackWiz rating of 78.22 is second-best in the field. With a 20% career win rate and an average speed of 55, Almendares profiles as a closet speedster who could find himself in the right spot behind a contentious early pace.

show2Formidable ManML 7/5

Formidable Man (2) is the morning-line favorite at 7/5, backed by Flavien Prat and the Michael W. McCarthy barn — a combination that wins at a high rate on the local circuit. The 46% career win rate is elite, and TrackWiz rates him third in the field at 72.86. Our model likes El Potente more, but Formidable Man is too well-connected to leave off show tickets — if the top two get into trouble, Prat will find a way to hit the board.

Race 9

12:00 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A big field allowance optional claimer going five and a half furlongs on the dirt — with twelve horses, pace figures to be chaotic, and the TrackWiz model is pointing toward a double-digit overlay as the top pick.

win11SupernalML 6/1

Supernal (11) is the TrackWiz top selection with a rating of 82.67 and opens at a very appealing 6/1 on the morning line — a horse our model is significantly higher on than the public. Antonio Fresu gets the mount for Doug F. O'Neill, a high-volume trainer who runs his horses into form. A 27% career win rate is respectable, and with an average speed of 55 in a field where the figures are tightly bunched, Supernal's rating advantage suggests a form cycle that's peaking at the right time.

place5GeezerML 12/1

Geezer (5) opens at 12/1 and represents one of the more undervalued place plays on the card, with a TrackWiz rating of 72.2 — second in the field — despite being a double-digit price. Victor Espinoza... wait, Geezer goes to Cesar Belmont for trainer Genaro Vallejo, and the 26% career win rate is nothing to dismiss in an allowance field. The average speed figure of 56 is among the field's best, and at 12/1 in the place hole, this is exactly the kind of price discrepancy the model is built to find.

show4See Through ItML 7/2

See Through It (4) gets Joel Rosario aboard for trainer Peter Miller — two names that command instant respect at Santa Anita. The TrackWiz rating of 68.76 is third in this sprawling field, and a 31% career win rate shows a horse with a genuine habit of hitting the board. At 7/2 on the morning line, the show price may be thin, but in a twelve-horse field with chaos likely early, having Rosario and Miller in your corner as a show anchor is sound strategy.

Race 10

12:30 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

A massive fourteen-horse maiden special weight on the turf going six and a half furlongs — the field is full of unknowns, but one horse stands well above the rest in the TrackWiz ratings with a value price attached to back it up.

win4Big BillML 2/1

Big Bill (4) is the standout in this sprawling field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — the highest of any horse in Race 10 by a wide margin — and opens as the 2/1 morning-line favorite, a number that reflects genuine public support for good reason. Ricardo Gonzalez takes the mount for trainer Mark Glatt, who is excellent with grass horses and particularly sharp with first-time runners and maidens on the local circuit. An average speed figure of 56 leads the field, and in a race where many horses have limited or no form, a combination like Glatt-Gonzalez with a top-rated horse is very difficult to fade.

place7Still BulletproofML 10/1

Still Bulletproof (7) opens at a generous 10/1 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 57.33 — the second-best in this fourteen-horse field and a sharp edge over the bulk of the competition. Joel Rosario gets the call for trainer Andy Mathis, and while the morning line suggests the public isn't expecting much, Rosario's presence is a loud signal that connections believe this horse can perform. An average speed of 55 on the grass at six and a half furlongs is workable, making Still Bulletproof a strong place overlay at those odds.

show11No Joke AntaresML 5/1

No Joke Antares (11) shares the third-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 53.33 alongside Moment of Valor, but the 5/1 morning-line price makes this one more attractive from a value standpoint. Tyler Baze is an experienced hand on the Southern California circuit for trainer Sean McCarthy, and in a maiden turf sprint with this many unknowns, having the third-best rating in the field at 5/1 is exactly the kind of show play that can quietly cash tickets all meet long.

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Clear skies, firm turf, and three Stakes races — Santa Anita is putting on a show today. Our top free plays are Yacowlef in Race 1, Ya'll Come in Race 2, and Salty Siss in Race 3. For the full card including Malarchuk in the feature, El Potente on the grass, and our exotic ticket builds, subscribers get everything at /pricing. Good luck out there, and enjoy the holiday weekend card.

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