Daily Picks

Retama Park Picks & Predictions — July 16, 2026

Thursday, July 16, 20269 racesRetama Park

Retama Park is going nine on Thursday, July 16, and the conditions are about as cooperative as Texas summer gets — cloudy skies and a comfortable 82°F keeping the track playing fair. That's good news for handicappers, because today's card is built for speed, featuring a slate of compact quarter horse distances that reward horses who can fire out of the gate and hold on.

The card spans everything from 250-yard sprints to the card's longest test at 870 yards in Race 6, giving us a nice mix of race shapes to work with. We've got claiming battles, allowance tests, a maiden affair, and a starter allowance mixed in — plenty of angles to attack across all experience levels. Our TrackWiz ratings have identified some compelling spots today, including a couple of overlays worth building tickets around.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

The top of the card features a tight 250-yard dash where the TrackWiz ratings split cleanly into two tiers — three horses rated 77 or better and a middle pack well behind, setting up a logical but competitive top-three battle.

win2Glimpse to LeaveML 5/1

Glimpse to Leave (No. 2) tops our ratings at 84.17 in this short-format claiming sprint, giving it a meaningful edge over the field at a morning line of 5/1 that looks generous. Luis Vivanco is aboard, one of the busiest riders on this Retama card, and trainer Alex Villarreal keeps this one pointed right. At 250 yards, there's no place to hide — the horse that breaks clean and rates highest usually gets there first, and Glimpse to Leave checks both boxes. The 9% career win percentage is modest, but our TrackWiz rating says the underlying ability is real.

place1Justice MelodyML 4/1

Justice Melody (No. 1) slots in just behind with an 82.45 rating and gets Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. — one of the most active jockeys on the card today — in the irons. At 4/1 on the morning line, this one isn't being overlooked, but the edge in raw ratings goes to the No. 2. Still, in a 250-yard heat where fractions of a second decide everything, Justice Melody's profile is strong enough to hit the board consistently.

show8No Limits EagleML 5/2

No Limits Eagle (No. 8) rounds out our top three with a 77.22 rating and a 16% career win percentage — solid for this level. Posted at 5/2 on the morning line, this may be the public's top choice, but our ratings suggest it's more of a show-price horse than a win single. It makes a natural exotic anchor — include it under the top two in exactas and trifectas.

Race 2

12:15 AM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

This 350-yard allowance has a clear ratings standout at the top, but a pair of live contenders right behind it make this race more than a one-horse show — value could be hiding in the middle of the morning line.

win5Who Wants Too FancyML 3/1

Who Wants Too Fancy (No. 5) leads our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08, the highest mark in this eight-horse allowance field, and goes postward at a reasonable 3/1 on the morning line. Jockey H. Javier Hernandez is a live rider and trainer Jorge Rivas Correa puts this one in at the allowance level with confidence. The 7% career win rate looks low on paper, but the rating tells us the form is competitive — in short-format quarter horse racing, raw ability often outweighs win percentage trends. This is our top single in Race 2.

place6El Princpe CarlosML 7/2

El Princpe Carlos (No. 6) is right on the heels of the top pick with an 85.06 rating and brings a 14% career win rate to the table — more encouraging than the favorite's historical numbers. Luis Vivanco takes the call, and at 7/2 morning line, this is an overlay candidate if the betting public leans heavily on the top pick. Use this one on top in exactas as well — the gap between No. 5 and No. 6 is narrow enough to flip.

show8Call Me DiamanteML 9/2

Call Me Diamante (No. 8) closes out our exotics coverage here with a 70.18 rating and a 14% career win percentage. J.R. Ramirez, Jr. is in the saddle, and at 9/2, there's fair value in the place and show pools. The rating drops off from the top two, but in a race where the front runners could press each other hard over 350 yards, Diamante is a steady option to land a piece.

Race 3

12:42 AM EDT

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A claiming sprint at 250 yards where the ratings are sharply stratified — Strange Chic sits well clear at the top of the sheet, but the morning line underestimates it, creating what could be a play-against situation for the betting public.

win3Strange ChicML 5/1

Strange Chic (No. 3) is the class of this field by TrackWiz metrics, posting an 84.17 rating that matches the top score from Race 1 — remarkable for a claiming-level runner. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. is back aboard, continuing a strong day in the irons, and trainer Jerry W. Sewell II has this one at 5/1 on the morning line despite the top rating. In a 250-yard event, the horse with the highest ability score usually gets out of the gate and doesn't look back — Strange Chic is our confident top pick here.

place5Kas Is Sweet GlML 5/2

Kas Is Sweet Gl (No. 5) is the morning line favorite at 5/2 and sits second in our ratings at 73.47 — there's a notable gap between it and Strange Chic, but it's comfortably clear of the rest of the field. Luis Vivanco picks up the mount for trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III, a barn that runs multiple horses today and clearly has a stable in good form. This one should hit the board and is the logical exacta partner with Strange Chic.

show1Black ChilitaML 7/2

Black Chilita (No. 1) earns the show spot with a 55.85 rating and a 14% career win percentage — respectable at this level. Eleazar Rivera Hernandez rides for trainer Jose Antonio De La Rosa, and the 7/2 morning line reflects some public respect. The rating gap between Black Chilita and the top two is real, but in a wide-open claiming sprint, a clean break from the rail could bring this filly right into the picture.

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers today, and they cover the first half of the card nicely. In Race 1 (250 yards, Claiming), Glimpse to Leave pops at 5/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 — a number that suggests the oddsmakers may be underselling a legitimate contender. Race 2 steps up in class to an Allowance at 350 yards, where Who Wants Too Fancy carries our highest free-race rating at 87.08, making that 3/1 morning line look like fair value, not a steal. Then Race 3 doubles back to 250 yards for another Claiming event, and Strange Chic mirrors Glimpse to Leave's profile almost exactly — 5/1 odds, 84.17 rating — which tells us our models see a similarly competitive situation worth monitoring as tote action develops.

The common thread across all three free picks? They're all short-course dirt sprints where gate speed is everything. If you see early wagering pushing any of these horses significantly shorter than the morning line, that's a signal worth respecting.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:09 AM EDT

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

The first non-free race of the card is a ten-horse claiming sprint at 300 yards — a full field with a clear ratings leader, but enough secondary horses in the 57-71 range to make the exotics interesting.

win6Jess Vital GlML 5/2

Jess Vital Gl (No. 6) owns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.81 and goes as the morning line favorite at 5/2 — the number lines up with the form. Luis Vivanco is back in the irons for the always-active Jose Luis Sanchez III barn, which is running multiple horses today and appears to be in a good form cycle. A 12% career win rate is fine at the claiming level, and at 300 yards, this horse's ability advantage should translate directly to the wire. Best bet of the first half of the card.

place8Haleys Lil EagleML 9/2

Haleys Lil Eagle (No. 8) posts a solid 71.01 rating and a 12% career win rate to slot in as our place pick at 9/2. Rosendo E. Pina Garcia rides for trainer Wendy Alejandra Garcia, and the morning line price gives some value in the place pool if the favorite runs as expected. The rating is a comfortable second-best in the field, and this one should be right there at the wire.

show10LjrML 7/2

Ljr (No. 10) adds intrigue as the show pick with a 58.58 rating and a modest 5% career win rate — but that low win percentage in a horse that rates this competitively often signals one that runs well without winning, exactly the profile you want for show tickets. Diego Contreras gets the mount for trainer Jose Dolores Camacho at 7/2 on the morning line. Don't overthink it — in a ten-horse field, the third check is wide open and Ljr rates well enough to grab it.

Race 5

1:36 AM EDT

Starter Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

The Starter Allowance at 350 yards is the most compressed ratings race on the card — four horses bunched between 77 and 83, making this a genuine pick-'em at the top with real value opportunities to exploit.

win6Heza KvnML 6/1

Heza Kvn (No. 6) earns the top spot on our board with an 82.71 rating and, critically, a 20% career win percentage that stands out in a field where most rivals are in the mid-teens. Arturo Alvarez takes the mount for trainer Angel Sanchez, who is running multiple horses today and clearly has a sharp stable. The 6/1 morning line is the value angle here — our ratings say this horse belongs near the top of the morning line, not at the bottom of it. This is our best value play of Race 5.

place8GettsomeML 5/2

Gettsome (No. 8) is the morning line lukewarm favorite at 5/2 and sits just behind the top pick with a 78.03 rating and an 18% career win rate — the highest win percentage among our top three. Luis Vivanco picks up the mount for trainer Isidro Hinojosa, and there's no question this is a live contender. We're using it in second because the price on Heza Kvn is just too good to pass up on top, but Gettsome should be included in all exotics.

show1Sloww DownnML 4/1

Sloww Downn (No. 1) rounds out the trifecta with a 77.82 rating and a 16% career win rate — nearly identical marks to the place pick but at 4/1 on the morning line. Eliazar T. Vera handles the mount for trainer Delbert McDowell. This is the kind of horse that makes trifecta boxes worth considering — three horses rated within five points of each other at the top of the card, and the show horse is available at a fair price.

Race 6

2:03 AM EDT

Claiming · 870 yd · Dirt

Race 6 stretches out to 870 yards — the longest race on the card — and that distance shift completely changes the calculus, rewarding horses with stamina and tactical sense over pure gate speed.

win3Flyin RustyML 5/2

Flyin Rusty (No. 3) is our top pick with the field-best 87.81 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate that's been earned over a real body of work. Luis Vivanco gets the call once more — he's having a full-card day — for trainer John Boegner, who also saddles the No. 8 horse. At 5/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for the top-rated runner at this distance. The 870-yard trip is a grind for quarter horses, and a horse that rates this well on our system at a route distance should be at the head of the class.

place7Cloned SpeedML 3/1

Cloned Speed (No. 7) is aptly named for a route race — a 75.57 rating paired with a 15% career win rate suggests this is a consistent performer who knows how to run a longer distance. Trainer J. Ryan Basham and rider Alejandro Landeros Zuniga connect here at 3/1 on the morning line. The price makes Cloned Speed a legitimate win contender in its own right, and at minimum it should be on the board when the long trip plays out.

show1Rock Solid StonesML 5/1

Rock Solid Stones (No. 1) wraps up the exotic coverage with a 72.66 rating and a 12% career win rate for trainer Esteban Rubio. H. Javier Hernandez takes the mount, and the 5/1 morning line suggests this one isn't getting much public love — which is exactly why it belongs in your trifectas. At 870 yards, anything can happen and a rail draw gives Rock Solid Stones a clean trip as long as it can hang on.

Race 7

2:30 AM EDT

Maiden · 250 yd · Dirt

A ten-horse maiden sprint at 250 yards is the definition of a wide-open heat — every runner has a zero career win percentage by definition, so TrackWiz ratings and connections are your best guide in an otherwise murky form picture.

win2AnaheimML 5/1

Anaheim (No. 2) leads our ratings among this maiden field at 69.82 — a meaningful edge in a race where most rivals sit in the high 30s to mid-50s. Nestor Duran picks up the mount for trainer Gilberto Gonzalez, and at 5/1 on the morning line, the value is real. Maiden races at 250 yards are heavily influenced by gate work and raw ability, and Anaheim's rating suggests it has the tools. Our best play in a race that's otherwise difficult to handicap with confidence.

place3My Class CartelML 7/2

My Class Cartel (No. 3) rates second in the field at 66.79 and draws H. Javier Hernandez — a capable rider who is active throughout this card. Trainer Ricardo Alonso Vallejo sends this one out at 7/2 morning line, reflecting solid public respect. The ratings gap between No. 2 and No. 3 is narrow enough that My Class Cartel can easily flip the result — use both on top in exacta wheels.

show5Absolutes CartelML 3/1

Absolutes Cartel (No. 5) is the morning line favorite at 3/1 despite a 56.67 rating that ranks third in our model — the public appears to be betting connections (trainer Mario J. Loza is active today) more than raw ratings here. Gilberto Linares rides. If the favorite delivers, the trifecta payouts could be modest, but in a maiden race where chaos is always a factor, having the public's top choice in your show slot is a safe exotic play.

Race 8

2:57 AM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

Race 8 is an allowance at 300 yards with a wild twist at the top — the three horses we like best are all sitting double-digit morning line prices, meaning the public is loading up on horses our model rates well below them.

win10Cowgirl Cool 123ML 10/1

Cowgirl Cool 123 (No. 10) leads our ratings at 76.88 alongside Tempted to Fly, but it's the win pick here based on a 33% career win percentage that is rock solid for an allowance runner. Jose R. Herbert gets the mount for trainer Salvador G. Flores, and the 10/1 morning line makes this one of the strongest value plays on the entire card. The public is apparently overlooking this horse in favor of the 3/1 and 7/2 shots, but our TrackWiz analysis says No. 10 is the one to beat. Longshot alert — this is a legitimate win candidate at a generous price.

place6Tempted to FlyML 10/1

Tempted to Fly (No. 6) shares the top rating with the win pick at 76.88 and also brings a 33% career win rate — this is a co-top pick by the numbers. Gilberto Linares rides for trainer Jose Ivan Martinez, and the 10/1 morning line is equally baffling for a horse rated this well. Box these two in exactas all day — if the public is wrong, the payouts should be substantial.

show4Lg BarbieML 12/1

Lg Barbie (No. 4) slots in at a 73.12 rating with a 33% career win rate, making it yet another double-digit morning line horse (12/1) that our model rates highly. Nestor Duran rides for Gilberto Gonzalez, and the trifecta with the top three public-dismissed runners could be a monster ticket. It's unusual to see three horses rated this consistently well all sitting at 10/1 or higher — lean into the value and make sure all three are in your exotic coverage.

Race 9

3:24 AM EDT

Allowance · 330 yd · Dirt

The nightcap is a ten-horse allowance at 330 yards where our top-rated horse is clear of the field but sitting at a short morning line — the real story may be the supporting cast, which includes a pair of longshot-priced horses with solid ratings.

win5Chile PiquinML 5/2

Chile Piquin (No. 5) heads our board with an 86.28 rating — the highest mark among all nine races in tonight's card finale — and goes as the morning line co-favorite at 5/2. Nestor Duran picks up a key mount here, and trainer Zackery N. Rios has this one pointed right. The 7% career win rate is the lone caution flag, but in allowance company at a short distance, our rating is the primary driver and Chile Piquin is the clear top selection. Make this your win single to anchor Race 9 tickets.

place10Lonely LegacyML 10/1

Lonely Legacy (No. 10) is the most intriguing horse on the card's final race — a 76.88 rating paired with a 33% career win percentage at 10/1 on the morning line. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. is aboard for trainer Shae L. Cox, and this combination has been productive throughout today's card. The win rate alone should make this closer to 3/1 in a rational market — use Lonely Legacy on top in exactas alongside the favorite and watch the return.

show7One Bad FddML 8/1

One Bad Fdd (No. 7) earns the show spot with a 64.45 rating and an 11% career win rate at 8/1 on the morning line. J.R. Ramirez, Jr. takes the call for trainer Isidro Hinojosa. In a ten-horse allowance where the ratings spread is wide, having a mid-rated horse at 8/1 in your trifecta gives you coverage if the race plays out differently than expected. One Bad Fdd bridges the gap between the elite tier and the deep long shots — a natural fit for exotics.

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Today's Retama Park card has the look of a solid Thursday — fair weather, competitive fields, and a few spots where the morning line may be leaving money on the table. Start with Glimpse to Leave, Who Wants Too Fancy, and Strange Chic as your free-race anchors, then let our premium analysis guide you through the back half of the card where the biggest value plays — including that Flyin Rusty pace scenario and the longshot case for Cowgirl Cool 123 — are waiting. Unlock the full card at TrackWiz Premium and go into post time with every angle covered.

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