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Presque Isle Downs Picks & Predictions — October 22, 2026

October 22, 20269 racesAll Presque Isle Downs picks

This card ran on October 22, 2026.

Best bets at Presque Isle Downs, October 22, 2026

Race 13Disposable IncomeML 3/13:30 PM EDT

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It's a crisp Thursday afternoon at Presque Isle Downs — clear skies, 60°F, and a firm dirt surface that should play fair all day. Ideal conditions for handicappers looking to get a clean read on pace and form, with no weather excuses in play.

We've got a 9-race all-dirt card stretching from sprints at 6 furlongs all the way out to routes at 1 mile and 70 yards. The mix of Claiming, Starter Optional Claiming, and one Maiden Special Weight race gives you plenty of angles to work with — from class droppers looking to steal a win to maiden types breaking their way onto the scene.

Our TrackWiz ratings cover every race on the card, and today's standout is Nuts and Bolts in Race 7, who carries our highest rating of the day at 88.83 going a route on the dirt at 9/5 on the morning line. If you're building sequences or multi-race wagers, that's your anchor.

Best Bets

Race 1

3:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A clear class standout emerges in this mile-plus dirt claimer, but a pair of solid mid-range contenders make the exacta and trifecta worth targeting.

win3Disposable IncomeML 3/1

Disposable Income tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 — a significant gap over the rest of this field — and backs it up with a 16% career win rate, the best among the top contenders. Trainer Michael C. Pappada sends out two horses tonight, which suggests confidence in the barn's horses and organizational sharpness. At 3/1 on the morning line, the price isn't a gift, but the numbers justify making her the anchor of your exotics. The added distance of 1 mile and 70 yards should suit a horse whose avg speed figure of 55 compares favorably in this group.

place2Yes I'm JessML 4/1

Yes I'm Jess (No. 2) checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 73.08 and an avg speed of 55, matching the top horses on raw pace numbers. The 4/1 morning line feels workable for place purposes, and Israel O. Rodriguez gets the call — a pilot who should keep this one in a good striking position around two turns. The modest 7% career win rate is the one caveat, but in a place spot, consistency of effort matters more than conversion.

show4Alexander KML 7/2

Alexander K draws the 4 post with a 71.56 rating and a 54 average speed figure, putting him firmly in the second tier of this field. Trainer Kevin Rice keeps this horse competitive at this level, and the 7/2 morning line on a horse with only a 6% career win rate suggests the public may be leaning on trainer/jockey buzz — which makes him an interesting hedge rather than a primary bet. In a trifecta, he rounds out the ticket nicely behind the two top picks.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

3:57 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Drunk On Sake brings the highest rating and an elite career win percentage into a wide-open Starter Optional Claiming mile, but several horses with strong win records could scramble the exotics.

win4Drunk On SakeML 7/2

Drunk On Sake (No. 4) is the class of this field on multiple fronts — an 86.35 TrackWiz rating paired with a 22% career win rate that ties for best in the race but stands alone in overall quality. Trainer Scooter Davis doubles up tonight, and Israel O. Rodriguez takes the mount, a jockey-trainer combo worth noting. The 7/2 morning line represents a touch of value for the top-rated horse in a Starter Optional Claiming spot. An avg speed of 54 is right in the pocket for this group.

place3NeokingML 3/1

Neoking (No. 3) rates second-best on the TrackWiz board at 78.47 and owns a 15% career win rate — solid credentials for a place ticket. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp places him at 3/1 on the morning line, and Gaddiel A. Martinez takes the reins, a capable pilot at this level. The avg speed of 53 is a tick behind the top horses, but his overall profile screams top-three finisher.

show5Triple StartML 6/1

Triple Start (No. 5) is a show-ticket value play here — a 70.26 rating combined with a 22% career win rate at 6/1 makes him a horse who knows how to hit the board. Trainer John Fennessy runs a sharp operation at Presque Isle, and the 54 avg speed ties him with the top horses on pace. If the favorite stumbles or traffic trouble hits, Triple Start has the tools to sneak into the money.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Today's three free races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — are all about routing and sprinting on a surface that looks tailor-made for horses who want to get out and control the pace. In Race 1, Disposable Income tops our board at 87.08 going the long way around at 1 mile and 70 yards, posting at a very digestible 3/1 on the morning line. Race 2 brings another route with Drunk On Sake (rated 86.35, 7/2 ML) in a Starter Optional Claiming spot — that condition often draws horses dropping with something to prove, so the pace scenario here is worth watching closely.

Sprint fans get their first look in Race 3, where Twist 'n Twirl leads our free picks with an 87.81 rating at 5/2 — that's our top-rated horse among the three free selections, and on a clear day with a fast dirt strip, early speed figures to be rewarded. Keep an eye on how the first two routes set up the pace patterns before the sprints kick in later in the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

4:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A legitimate two-horse battle shapes up at the top of this six-furlong dirt claimer, with Twist 'n Twirl and Chilling Hassle rated well clear of the rest — this could come down to pace and post.

win5Twist 'n TwirlML 5/2

Twist 'n Twirl (No. 5) leads the field with a top TrackWiz rating of 87.81, and Israel O. Rodriguez — one of the sharper riders on this circuit — gets the call. The 5/2 morning line makes her the public choice, and the numbers support that confidence. An avg speed of 54 on the 6-furlong dirt is competitive here, and a 6% career win rate likely reflects a horse that has been running against tougher — this class level could be the spot.

place8Chilling HassleML 4/1

Chilling Hassle (No. 8) is breathing right down the winner's neck with an 83.62 TrackWiz rating and a 18% career win rate that ranks among the best in the field. Brandon L. Kulp trains, and Gaddiel A. Martinez rides — a live combo at 4/1. The outside post (8) in a short sprint could be a slight concern if pace pressure develops early, but the raw numbers say this horse belongs on every ticket.

show1AxcelML 7/2

Axcel (No. 1) earns the show nod with a 78.85 rating and a 14% career win rate — respectable credentials for the show spot at 7/2. Drawing the rail in a sprint can be a double-edged sword, but a clean break from trainer Debbie Schaber's barn could slot this horse in a ground-saving trip. The avg speed of 54 keeps him within striking distance of the top two, making him a solid trifecta anchor.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

4:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Gift Exchange stands out on the TrackWiz sheet, but Enjoy the Music's elite win percentage and Showdown King's raw speed numbers keep this six-furlong claiming race from being a foregone conclusion.

win2Gift ExchangeML 3/1

Gift Exchange (No. 2) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and gets trainer John Fennessy and jockey Mike Allen — a combination that runs well at this meet. The 3/1 morning line is fair for a horse at the top of the rating chart. An avg speed of 55 is competitive for this level, and a 14% career win rate, while modest, may understate current form on a horse that's potentially dropping into a comfortable spot.

place5Enjoy the MusicML 9/2

Enjoy the Music (No. 5) brings a 28% career win rate to the table — best in the race — and a solid 80.12 TrackWiz rating that puts her clearly in the top tier. Trainer Randall R. Russell runs a second horse tonight in Straightoutadutton, showing active stable confidence. At 9/2, there's legitimate value here for a place ticket on a horse whose win percentage suggests she consistently finishes near the front.

show1Showdown KingML 7/2

Showdown King (No. 1) offers a compelling show-ticket profile: a 73.61 rating, a 24% career win rate, and the highest avg speed figure in the field at 56. Trainer Michael C. Pappada puts Rosario Montanez aboard, and the inside post in a sprint often sets up a ground-saving trip. The 7/2 morning line is reasonable for a horse that has clearly shown the ability to win at this level.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

5:18 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight sprints are always a guessing game, but Chalant stands out on the TrackWiz sheet at a price that makes the value case compelling against a wide-open field of first-time winners.

win2ChalantML 6/1

Chalant (No. 2) paces the field with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 — nearly ten points clear of the next-best horse — and gets trainer Scooter Davis, who keeps a busy and productive barn. Rosario Montanez takes the mount, adding a steady hand in a maiden race where pace management matters. The 6/1 morning line is a genuine overlay for the top-rated horse in the field, making this one of the better win values on the card tonight. An avg speed of 55 matches the best in this maiden sprint.

place10Rocker RollerML 7/2

Rocker Roller (No. 10) slots in second on the ratings at 72.6 and gets Antonio A. Gallardo in the irons at 7/2. Trainer Brittany T. Russell has this horse primed for a big effort, and the avg speed of 54 gives him pace credentials in a short race. In maiden sprints, horses that show early foot tend to hang around for a piece — this one looks like a prime candidate for the place slot.

show1Charlotte's CayML 3/1

Charlotte's Cay (No. 1) draws the rail with a 64.58 rating and the backing of trainer Michael J. Trombetta, a name that carries weight and typically means a horse is ready to run. Israel O. Rodriguez is aboard, and the 3/1 morning line makes her the public's second choice. The avg speed of 55 ties her with Chalant on pace, and inside post position in a sprint can lead to a clean, ground-saving trip for the show spot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

5:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

She's Lit carries clear rating superiority into this six-furlong dirt claimer, but the eye-popping 50% career win percentage on I've Had Enough and a deep closer profile from Princess Charming keep the exacta puzzle interesting.

win9She's LitML 3/1

She's Lit (No. 9) is the standout on the TrackWiz sheet with an 87.08 rating — the highest in the field by a substantial margin — and the best avg speed figure at 56. Trainer Randall R. Russell and jockey Gaddiel A. Martinez represent a live combo, and the 3/1 morning line makes this a fair but justified price for the top horse. An 8% career win rate is low, but horses with high TrackWiz ratings often represent improving form that hasn't fully materialized in the win column yet.

place2Princess CharmingML 5/2

Princess Charming (No. 2) checks in with a 68.53 TrackWiz rating and an avg speed of 55, making her the clear second choice on raw numbers. Trainer Scooter Davis keeps a sharp operation, and Rosario Montanez is a capable pilot who should get a clean trip from the 2-hole. At 5/2 on the morning line, she's the public's top pick — but as a place play behind She's Lit, she makes perfect sense on an exacta.

show3HawkeyejetML 12/1

Hawkeyejet (No. 3) is our show-ticket value angle tonight at 12/1 morning line — a genuinely big price for a horse with a 55 avg speed and a 55.59 TrackWiz rating that's in the respectable middle of the pack. Trainer Lawrence Antus sends out Walber Alencar, and a 16% career win rate suggests this horse has the ability to hit the board more often than the odds imply. In a sprint, if the top two get into a pace duel, a stalker like Hawkeyejet can swoop for the show spot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

6:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Nuts and Bolts is as dominant a favorite as you'll see on tonight's card — a massive rating gap and a 50% career win rate make this look like a one-horse race, with the exotics battle happening well behind him.

win1Nuts and BoltsML 9/5

Nuts and Bolts (No. 1) is the most compelling top pick on the entire card — an 88.83 TrackWiz rating paired with a jaw-dropping 50% career win rate makes this horse a clear standout. Israel O. Rodriguez picks up the mount, and trainer Darien Rodriguez has this horse dialed in at the mile and 70-yard distance. The 9/5 morning line is short, but the data fully supports the price — in a field where the second-highest rating is 57.88, this is about as dominant a rating gap as you'll find.

place7Baytown StormML 6/1

Baytown Storm (No. 7) is the second-best horse on TrackWiz's numbers at 57.88, which is a significant step down from the leader but well clear of the rest of the field. Trainer Paul McEntee saddles the runner-up pick at 6/1, and Taylor Kingsley gets the mount. A 6% career win rate is modest, but in a race where the favorite should dominate, place-only horses with clean form are exactly who you want underneath.

show6Risk and RegretML 4/1

Risk and Regret (No. 6) earns the show nod at 4/1 with a 49.01 TrackWiz rating and a 10% career win rate — a horse who can fill out a trifecta without breaking the bank. Trainer Murray L. Rojas puts Martina Rojas aboard, a combination that keeps things in-house and often suggests a sharp performance. At a mile plus, pace scenario shapes up favorably for a presser if the favorite goes out too fast — though with Nuts and Bolts at this level, don't count on a meltdown.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

6:39 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Fadethenoise leads the TrackWiz ratings in a well-filled Starter Optional Claiming sprint, but a sharp supporting cast — including a pair of horses in the high-70s — sets up a competitive exacta hunt.

win4FadethenoiseML 7/2

Fadethenoise (No. 4) is the horse to beat here, with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a career win rate of 35% — the most impressive win-rate/rating combination on the card tonight. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp also saddles Chilling Hassle in Race 3, showing a sharp stable running hot at this meet. Gaddiel A. Martinez takes the mount at 7/2, a competitive price for the highest-rated horse in the race. An avg speed of 57 is a top mark for this sprint distance and suggests this horse travels fast enough to control or stalk the pace.

place1Call Me LaterML 4/1

Call Me Later (No. 1) brings a 79.4 TrackWiz rating and a 57 avg speed — matching Fadethenoise on raw pace numbers — to the rail at 4/1. Trainer Randall R. Russell runs multiple horses tonight and clearly has the barn in good shape. Addiel J. Ayala is aboard, and a 14% career win rate on a horse posting these speed figures suggests a consistent performer who can earn a check. Inside post in a 6.5-furlong sprint sets up a stalking trip.

show7Top RecruitML 6/1

Top Recruit (No. 7) rounds out the top three with a 78.4 TrackWiz rating that's nearly identical to Call Me Later — this is a razor-thin difference in the show spot, but the 6/1 price on Top Recruit edges him ahead on value. Israel O. Rodriguez gets the call for trainer Juan Arriagada, and a 22% career win rate is among the best in the field. An avg speed of 56 keeps him honest in a 6.5-furlong sprint, and a mid-pack trip from the 7 post could position him perfectly for a late push.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 9

7:06 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A three-horse cluster sits within a few rating points of each other at the top of this mile-plus dirt claimer, making the exacta and trifecta the real play as the morning line favorite may not represent the best value.

win1Fur EliseML 8/1

Fur Elise (No. 1) leads the field on the TrackWiz board at 79.79 and draws a favorable inside post in a route race where position off the first turn is crucial. Trainer Ron G. Potts sends out Antonio A. Gallardo, and while the 10% career win rate is unspectacular, the rating gap over most of this field is real. The 8/1 morning line makes this one of the standout value plays on tonight's card — a top-rated horse going off at double-digit odds is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis is designed to find.

place6Channel Me InML 3/1

Channel Me In (No. 6) is right on Fur Elise's heels with a 76.94 TrackWiz rating and gets the public's 3/1 morning line nod — suggesting the crowd has identified this horse as a contender even if they're slightly underrating the favorite. Trainer Justin R. Morrell has Addiel J. Ayala aboard, a jockey who rides with purpose and handles route distances well. The 5% career win rate is a flag, but at this class level, a horse with a near-80 rating has the tools to be right there at the wire.

show3Too Much FunML 6/1

Too Much Fun (No. 3) completes the top tier at 76.53 on the TrackWiz board, sitting just a hair behind Channel Me In in what is effectively a three-horse photo for the top ratings in this field. John Fennessy trains, and Mike Allen — a steady hand at Presque Isle — gets the call at 6/1. A 7% career win rate is low, but the speed figure of 53 keeps this horse competitive in a pace scenario over 1 mile and 70 yards where the race often comes down to who's left standing in the stretch.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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Bottom line: Presque Isle Downs is serving up a clean, manageable 9-race dirt card under perfect October skies. Twist 'n Twirl is our best-rated free pick, Nuts and Bolts is the top-rated horse on the entire card, and there's a compelling longshot angle in the finale worth exploring. Unlock the full analysis — pace projections, exotic tickets, and all nine races — with a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing. Good luck at the windows.

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