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Presque Isle Downs Picks & Predictions — October 13, 2026
It's a beautiful Tuesday at Presque Isle Downs — clear skies, 79°F, and a firm dirt track that should play fast all afternoon. Eight races are on the board, all on the main dirt, giving us a consistent surface to work with from the jump.
The card leans heavily toward claiming company, with one allowance sprinkled in at 6½ furlongs in Race 3. Distance variety is solid too — we've got three route races (including a pair going 1 mile 70 yards to close out the card) and five sprints, so there's something here for every kind of horse and bettor.
TrackWiz has full analysis on all eight races, with Races 1 through 3 available free to every reader. Our top-rated horse on the card is Starship Belmont in Race 2, who carries an 88.54 TrackWiz rating at morning-line odds of 2/1 — worth your attention early.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
A clear class standout emerges in this one-mile dirt claimer, but the morning line suggests the bettors may already know it — value hunters should look deeper in the exotics.
Del Rayo (4) sits atop our TrackWiz ratings with an 87.08 — a significant gap over the rest of this field — and Mike Allen gets the call in what looks like a favorable pace setup at a mile. With a 13% career win rate, Del Rayo is consistent rather than flashy, but that rating separation is hard to ignore in a claiming field like this. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's not a ton of overlay, but the numbers say this is the one to beat.
Tommy Bee (3) checks in with a solid 67.29 TrackWiz rating and leads the field with a 13% career win rate at a morning line of 4/1. Trainer Justin R. Morrell sends him out with Gaddiel A. Martinez in the irons — a capable combo. Tommy Bee looks like a legit place threat who could move up if Del Rayo gets into any trouble.
Lightning Charlie (1) rates at 59.13 and posts a 12% career win rate — nothing eye-popping, but solid enough for show consideration in a five-horse field. Walber Alencar gives this one a live rider at 7/2 on the morning line, which represents modest value. Use Lightning Charlie underneath in exactas and trifectas as a hedge against the top two.
Race 2
Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
Two horses separate themselves from the pack on ratings in this one-mile dirt claimer, but a pair of 10/1 shots lurk for those willing to take a swing at a wide-open exacta.
Starship Belmont (5) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 — the highest mark in this field — and pairs an 18% career win rate with an average speed figure of 54, matching the field's best. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp sends her out with Gaddiel A. Martinez, who's been active all card. At 2/1 morning line she's the chalk, and on pure merit, she's earned it.
Don't Tell Kelly (3) is the other half of the top tier here, rating at 82.86 with a 20% career win rate — the best strike rate in the field. Antonio A. Gallardo rides for trainer Murray L. Rojas, and the 7/2 morning line seems fair given how close her numbers run to the favorite. She's a strong place contender who could flip the exacta if Starship Belmont hits any traffic.
Tour Jete (6) rates at 57.23 and comes in at 4/1 on the morning line, which offers modest value in the show pool for a five-plus horse field. Israel O. Rodriguez gets the mount for trainer Lance Stokes, and with a 13% career win rate, Tour Jete has shown the ability to hit the board. She's a natural fit in the trifecta underneath the top two.
Race 3
Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt
A 6.5-furlong allowance that sets up as a two-horse tug of war at the top, with the morning-line favorite carrying speed figures that don't quite match her lofty price — price shoppers, take note.
Shez Untappable (2) leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 despite a 3/1 morning line that actually offers a touch of value compared to the favorite Celestial Speed, who's going off at 2/1. Trainer Randall R. Russell has a live one here, and Gaddiel A. Martinez aboard only adds to the appeal. With an average speed figure of 56 and a strong rating, Shez Untappable looks like the right side of the two-horse battle.
Rock Tune (5) rates at 70.78 and matches Shez Untappable's average speed figure of 56, making her a legitimate threat to pick up a piece. Walber Alencar rides for the J. Michael Rogers barn, and at 7/2, there's real place value here if the top two end up in a pace duel that tires both out. A closer profile suits the 6.5-furlong distance well.
Celestial Speed (3) carries the highest average speed figure in the field at 57 and an 18% career win rate — numbers that explain why she's the 2/1 favorite. Antonio A. Gallardo rides for trainer Brandon L. Kulp. She's faded slightly in our ratings (64.31) compared to Shez Untappable, but her raw speed gives her show equity and makes her a natural trifecta inclusion.
The first three races give us a great warmup to the day. In the opener, Del Rayo (3/1 ML, 87.08 rating) is our top pick going one mile on the dirt — a route distance where pace scenario becomes critical, and today's setup looks favorable. Race 2 is where we have the most confidence on the card: Starship Belmont (2/1 ML, 88.54 rating) is the highest-rated horse we've flagged all day, and while the morning line makes them the likely favorite, there's still enough upside in claiming company at this level to play aggressively.
Race 3 shifts to the allowance ranks over 6½ furlongs — a class step up from the surrounding claimers — where Shez Untappable (3/1 ML, 87.08 rating) stands out. Allowance sprints on a quick dirt track reward horses with early zip, and the conditions today set up nicely for that profile. All three free races are live tickets as standalone plays or as the anchor legs of early multi-race sequences.
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Bottom line: today's Presque Isle card is clean and playable. Starship Belmont in Race 2 is the marquee free play, Shez Untappable in the allowance gives you a legit price angle, and the premium half of the card is loaded with pace-driven spots our analysis has flagged as prime overlays. Head to /pricing to get the full eight-race breakdown before first post.