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Presque Isle Downs Picks & Predictions — September 14, 2026

September 14, 20268 racesAll Presque Isle Downs picks

This card ran on September 14, 2026.

Best bets at Presque Isle Downs, September 14, 2026

Race 14Warrior's MissionML 3/13:30 PM EDT

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Clear skies and a crisp 64°F greet us at Presque Isle Downs this Monday, and the conditions couldn't set up better for a clean read on the dirt. Eight races are on the card today — a nice mix of maiden events, claiming battles, and an allowance optional claiming test that gives us the most to dig into.

The footing should be consistent all afternoon with no weather concerns to complicate pace scenarios. That's good news for speed horses and comes-from-behind closers alike — you'll want to watch how the early races play out to see if either style is getting a bias advantage before locking in your late-race tickets.

Three races are free to preview for all TrackWiz readers today, with five more unlocked for subscribers. Whether you're playing a few races or grinding the full card, there's plenty of opportunity here.

Best Bets

Race 1

3:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight opener with zero career wins across the board — this one comes down to TrackWiz ratings, and there's a big gap at the top that makes the race less of a puzzle than it looks.

win4Warrior's MissionML 3/1

Warrior's Mission is the standout in this field by a considerable margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 85.48 — more than 29 points clear of the next closest horse. Trained by Jeff W. Zook and piloted by Jose A. Leon, the 3/1 morning line actually looks like a fair price given that edge. With an average speed figure of 54 and that dominant rating, this is the horse to beat at 6½ furlongs on the Presque Isle dirt.

place1Big Red TobyML 7/2

Big Red Toby lands second in our ratings at 55.83 and edges out stablemate Shy Boy with a slightly higher average speed figure of 55. Walber Alencar gets the mount for trainer Randall R. Russell, and the 7/2 morning line gives you a reasonable price if you're looking to key a place ticket. In a field of maidens with no career wins, consistency in the figures matters, and Big Red Toby shows it.

show5Shy BoyML 9/2

Shy Boy checks in at 54.17 in our ratings, very close to Big Red Toby, and also carries an average speed figure of 55. The same Jeff W. Zook barn sends this one out with Kevin Gonzalez up, giving Zook two live chances in the same race — a barn worth respecting. At 9/2, Shy Boy rounds out a natural show play in a wide-open maiden field.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

3:57 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Another maiden sprint where the pace scenario is murky and the top of the ratings sheet is tightly bunched — a small separation in TrackWiz scores could mean a tight three-way battle at the wire.

win6Love YourzML 5/2

Love Yourz sits atop our TrackWiz ratings at 57.5 and draws the outside post in a six-horse field, which should give Taylor Kingsley a clean look at the pace from the gate. Trained by Miguel Clement, she's rated nearly a full point clear of Sinful Mischief and carries a 5/2 morning line that reflects the market's respect. In a tight maiden field, any edge in the figures matters, and Love Yourz has that edge.

place3Sinful MischiefML 3/1

Sinful Mischief is right on Love Yourz's heels at a 56.67 rating and actually posts the field's best average speed figure at 56. Martina Rojas takes the mount for Timothy E. Hamm, a barn that also has Lil' Sway in this race — two chances to fire. The 3/1 morning line is fair value for a horse with the top speed number, and she's a natural pairing on exacta tickets.

show1Sinking CoinML 4/1

Sinking Coin rates third in the field at 55.0 with an average speed figure of 55, giving trainer Ron G. Potts a horse that should be competitive over this six-furlong dirt layout. Antonio A. Gallardo handles the riding duties, and the 4/1 price makes Sinking Coin an attractive show play or part of a trifecta bottom. Don't overlook this one in the exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Our three free races span a range of conditions that actually tell a nice story together. Warrior's Mission opens the card in a Maiden Special Weight going 6½ furlongs — a slightly longer sprint that rewards horses with stamina to carry their speed. Love Yourz follows in Race 2 at an even 6 furlongs, a classic maiden distance where we'll be watching early pace flow carefully. Then Ms Brightside steps up in Race 3's Allowance Optional Claiming route — at just over a mile, this is the most form-rich race of the free group and our highest-rated pick of the early card with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating.

The common thread across these three? On a clear, fast-rated surface, horses that can settle early and build into their runs look favored by the setup. Ms Brightside at 3/1 morning line in that AOC mile is the kind of play that offers both value and confidence — she's not being asked to do anything she hasn't shown she can do.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

4:24 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The allowance optional claimer at a mile and 70 yards features two horses with real class and a 28% career win rate apiece — this shapes up as a duel between a pair of formidable résumés with some live longshot threats lurking.

win4Ms BrightsideML 3/1

Ms Brightside tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and comes in with an 11% career win rate — modest in isolation, but this is an allowance field with some quality competition. Scott Spieth rides for trainer Aldana Spieth, and the 3/1 morning line reflects solid market confidence. At a mile and 70 yards, horses with strong overall ratings tend to hold their edge, and Ms Brightside's figure is the best in the race.

place1StyletML 5/2

Stylet rates second at 83.58 and brings a 28% career win rate to the table — one of the stronger records in the field. Taylor Kingsley gets the call for trainer S. Matthew Kintz, who also sends out La Artista, giving the barn two shots. The 5/2 morning line makes Stylet the public's narrow favorite, and that win percentage says this horse knows how to hit the board consistently.

show3Border ControlML 9/2

Border Control is an interesting show play at 9/2, sporting a 28% career win rate that matches Stylet's — the second-best in the field. Addiel J. Ayala rides for trainer Kevin Rice, and the average speed figure of 55 is competitive. At a distance that rewards horses with stamina and a solid pace profile, Border Control at that price is worth a spot on your tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 4

4:51 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

This maiden sprint is headlined by a legitimate longshot angle — our top-rated horse opens at double-digit odds despite the biggest TrackWiz rating in the field, making Race 4 one of the more interesting value plays on the card.

win1Yes I'm JessML 10/1

Yes I'm Jess tops the TrackWiz ratings at 65.47 despite carrying a 10/1 morning line — a meaningful disconnect that catches our eye. Trainer Lance Stokes sends this horse out with Israel O. Rodriguez in the irons, and that rating edge over the rest of the field is real, not cosmetic. In a maiden sprint where the public is leaning elsewhere, there's genuine value at that price if the figure translates to the dirt at six furlongs.

place4SticktotheplanmanML 3/1

Sticktotheplanman rates second in the field at 56.67 with the top average speed figure among horses with a listed speed number at 55. Taylor Kingsley picks up the mount for trainer Michael C. Pappada, and the 3/1 morning line reflects public confidence. This one profiles as a natural place-ticket anchor in a race where the win price on our top pick is enticing.

show5MobiusML 7/2

Mobius slots in third by our ratings at 55.83 and draws attention as a Michael Stidham trainee — a barn worth noting when they ship to regional tracks. Antonio A. Gallardo gets the call, and while we don't have a speed figure to lean on here, the rating is competitive. At 7/2, Mobius is a reasonable show play or trifecta piece in what figures to be a competitive maiden field.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

5:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Lady Hamilton dominates this claiming field on paper, but Runaway Breeze sets up as a pace factor and Float Away brings a 21% career win rate that demands respect — there's a clear top choice here, but the underneath spots are genuinely competitive.

win7Lady HamiltonML 5/2

Lady Hamilton is our standout in Race 5, posting a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — the highest mark in the field by a significant margin. Hector Rafael Diaz Jr. gets the mount for trainer Leland Hayes, and the 5/2 morning line makes this the public's top choice as well. With a 15% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54, Lady Hamilton has the profile of a horse that runs consistently well and should be tough to beat at six furlongs.

place1Runaway BreezeML 3/1

Runaway Breeze rates second at 72.24 and posts the field's best average speed figure at 56, which suggests this horse wants to be on or near the lead. Scott Spieth rides for trainer Justin R. Morrell, and a 3/1 morning line tells you the market sees this horse as a legitimate threat. If Runaway Breeze gets a clean trip up front, a place finish is a strong possibility even against Lady Hamilton.

show2Float AwayML 6/1

Float Away is the value angle in the show spot, carrying a 21% career win rate — the best career record in this field. Trainer W. John Bourke has Ciera Pruitt in the irons, and the 6/1 morning line offers some overlay potential given that win percentage. An average speed figure of 55 keeps Float Away competitive, and the career win rate alone makes this horse a legitimate trifecta bottom.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

5:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Race 6 is a loaded claiming sprint with four horses rating above 80 and two carrying a 33% career win rate — finding the winner here takes some courage, but the top of our ratings sheet offers a clear direction.

win7BindiML 7/2

Bindi leads our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and brings a 33% career win rate — tied for the best record in the field. Antonio A. Gallardo picks up the mount for trainer William E. Morey, and the 7/2 morning line reflects the crowd's respect for this horse's consistency. That career win percentage is a number you can build a ticket around, and in a competitive claiming field, proven winners deserve the benefit of the doubt.

place8Mistrial WindML 5/2

Mistrial Wind is essentially a dead heat with Bindi by our ratings at 86.12 — just 0.23 points separating them — and carries a 25% career win rate. Israel O. Rodriguez rides for trainer Adam Rice, and the 5/2 morning line actually makes Mistrial Wind the slight public favorite. This horse is a natural place key and an obvious exacta pairing with Bindi given how close the ratings are.

show6PeditalML 3/1

Pedital rates third in the field at 82.58 with a 28% career win rate, giving trainer Timothy E. Hamm a live runner in a deep sprint. Martina Rojas takes the mount, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the market has this horse well-regarded. With three horses clustered between 82 and 87 in our ratings, Pedital is a logical show play and a key piece in trifecta combinations.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

6:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The mile and 70-yard claiming race at night's midpoint features a big ratings gap at the top, but Underappreciated's 30% career win rate — best in the field — will attract plenty of public support and sets up an intriguing battle for supremacy.

win4DiverML 7/2

Diver tops our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35, a number that stands well clear of most of this field, and goes postward at 7/2 for trainer Brandon L. Kulp with Angel R. Rodriguez in the irons. The 13% career win rate is modest, but our ratings model accounts for more than just wins, and the overall profile here is strong for this distance. At a mile and 70 yards, a horse with a dominant rating tends to hold up over the extra ground.

place6Live StreamML 3/1

Live Stream rates second at 79.17 and brings a 27% career win rate to the table — the second-best record in the field. Martina Rojas rides for trainer Darien Rodriguez, who also has Mr. Funtastico in this race, and the 3/1 morning line reflects Live Stream's standing as a legitimate contender. An average speed figure of 55, the highest among the contenders we're highlighting, adds another layer of confidence.

show7King ReigertML 9/2

King Reigert slots in at 63.14 by our ratings with a 10% career win rate, but the 9/2 morning line offers reasonable value for a horse that Addiel J. Ayala will be steering for trainer Kevin Rice. In a race where the top two in our ratings are well-defined, King Reigert is the type of horse that can sneak into the trifecta on a pace-scrambling scenario. Worth including on multi-race tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 8

6:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The evening finale is a nine-horse claiming mile with the top two in our ratings separated by less than three points — Frenchman James and Twist 'n Twirl are on a collision course, and Mr. Colossal lurks as a sneaky show play at a price.

win3Frenchman JamesML 7/2

Frenchman James tops our ratings at 86.35 and posts a 14% career win rate, riding for trainer Michael C. Pappada with Rosario Montanez aboard. The 7/2 morning line looks reasonable given the rating edge, and an average speed figure of 54 in a nine-horse field at a mile and 70 yards gives this horse the stamina profile we want in a closer. Pappada also has Race for Cover in this field, suggesting the barn is live on the night card.

place2Twist 'n TwirlML 3/1

Twist 'n Twirl rates second at 83.87 — just 2.48 points behind the top choice — and carries the longest-odds morning line of our top two at 3/1. Israel O. Rodriguez handles the mount for Tim Girten, and despite a 3% career win rate, this horse's TrackWiz rating says the form is there even if the win column doesn't fully reflect it. An average speed figure of 53 keeps the expectations realistic, but a place finish is well within reach.

show6Mr. ColossalML 9/2

Mr. Colossal is the show play in Race 8 at 9/2, rating at 63.68 with Carlos Barbosa up for trainer Kevin Rice. The career win percentage is zeroed out, so this may be a lightly raced horse still building a record, but the rating is competitive enough to belong in trifecta combos. In a nine-horse field where the top two are tightly matched, a live 9/2 show option like Mr. Colossal can make your tickets pay.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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Today at Presque Isle Downs, Ms Brightside is our marquee free play in the Race 3 allowance mile, while the packed claiming sequence in the back half of the card offers real exotic ticket potential for subscribers. Keep an eye on early pace in the openers — the surface read you get from Races 1 and 2 will pay dividends all afternoon. Full card analysis, pace projections, and ticket breakdowns are available to TrackWiz subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there.

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