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Presque Isle Downs Picks & Predictions — August 19, 2026

August 19, 20268 racesAll Presque Isle Downs picks

Results are in — see the official Presque Isle Downs chart and payouts (our top pick won 2 of 8)→

Wednesday at Presque Isle Downs brings a clean, comfortable afternoon to the lakeside oval — partly cloudy skies and a mild 74°F mean the track crew should have the dirt surface playing true all day. No weather excuses, no sloppy footing. Just horses, speed figures, and eight races to pick apart.

The eight-race card runs the full spectrum from maiden claiming sprints to allowance routes, so there's something for every kind of bettor on the menu. The early races set up nicely for exacta players hunting overlays in thin fields, while the back half of the card features a pair of allowance optional claiming events that should draw the sharpest attention — including a route in Race 7 where our top-rated horse of the day shows up at a price that deserves a longer look.

Three races are fully open to all readers today, giving casual fans and first-timers a real taste of TrackWiz analysis before the card heats up.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming opener on the dirt at six furlongs where TrackWiz ratings create a clear top of the field — but a cluster of similar speed figures makes pace scenario crucial in a field of first-timers or lightly-raced maidens.

win1Hot GamerML 3/1

Hot Gamer owns the standout TrackWiz rating of 87.08 in this field — a significant gap over the second-ranked contender. Gaddiel A. Martinez picks up the mount, a competent pilot for this level, and trainer Ron G. Potts sends this one out ready to fire. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is fair value for a horse our model rates as a cut above in a maiden claiming spot at six furlongs.

place2Thy Name Is WomanML 7/2

Thy Name Is Woman checks in second on our ratings at 62.37, giving trainer John Fennessy a realistic place candidate at 7/2. The average speed figure of 53 is within striking distance of the top speed horses in here, and in a field where the favorite might take all the money, Walber Alencar could sneak her into the exacta at a workable price.

show6HawkeyejetML 4/1

Hawkeyejet rates third in our model at 55.00 for trainer Lawrence Antus and jockey Ciera Pruitt, sharing the top average speed figure of 54 alongside several rivals. At 4/1, there's enough value here to include in the trifecta — this one shouldn't be overlooked when building multi-horse tickets in a wide-open maiden field.

Race 2

7:57 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Two horses separate themselves from the pack in this mile maiden claimer, with a legitimate top contender drawing away in the TrackWiz ratings while the rest of the field is compressed near the bottom — shaping up as a two-horse affair with place betting opportunities.

win4Cole's ValentineML 7/2

Cole's Valentine tops our ratings at 86.35 and draws the rail with Rosario Montanez up for trainer Ralph N. Baez — a sharp combination for a route race. Despite sharing a modest average speed of 52, the rating separation from the field is notable: no other horse cracks 75 in this spot. At 7/2 on the morning line, this shapes up as the most logical win selection in an otherwise thin maiden field going two turns.

place5Rewardann'swarriorML 4/1

Rewardann'swarrior rates second best in the field at 74.77 for Ron G. Potts, who also saddles the third-rated Nina Lee — giving that barn a strong presence in the race. Kris Fox gets the call here, and at 4/1, this one is a natural underneath play. The rating edge over the rest of the field (excluding Cole's Valentine) is meaningful enough to anchor the place spot in your exactas.

show1Little BohemiaML 3/1

Little Bohemia, for trainer Timothy E. Hamm, rates third in the field at 57.13 and comes in at the favorable morning line of 3/1. Martina Rojas takes the mount, and this one's average speed of 54 leads all horses in the race. If pace heats up on the front end over a mile, a closer with that kind of underlying speed figure could be picking up pieces late.

Race 3

8:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The first claiming race on the card features a battle at the top between a pair of legitimate contenders — but the morning-line favorite doesn't match up with our top-rated horse, creating a potential overlay situation worth exploiting.

win2ViolentaML 9/2

Violenta is our top-rated horse at 84.90 for trainer Randall R. Russell and jockey Walber Alencar, yet she's sitting at 9/2 on the morning line — a price that looks generous given the numbers. Her 25% career win rate is the best in the field and speaks to her reliability at this level. With an average speed of 55 and the strongest overall profile in the race, she's the TrackWiz value play at a price that the morning line hasn't fully accounted for.

place3Two ScoopsML 9/5

Two Scoops is the morning-line favorite at 9/5, which makes sense on paper — trainer Timothy E. Hamm has her well-spotted and she checks in at 81.73 in our ratings with a 16% career win rate. Martina Rojas pilots her in a six-furlong dirt sprint, and she shares that top average speed figure of 55. Even if Violenta beats her, Two Scoops is too consistent to leave off your tickets.

show1IntimateML 7/2

Intimate rounds out the trifecta at 7/2 for trainer W. John Bourke. Rated 70.79 — solidly third in the field — she's posted a 9% career win rate which is respectable in claiming company. Huber Villa-Gomez picks up the mount, and at that price, she's a solid show play and a useful trifecta wheel underneath the two top contenders.

Our three free previews cover the first two maiden claiming races and the opening claiming sprint, and they tell a consistent story: in short fields on a neutral dirt surface, horses with the cleanest speed figure progression and solid pace positions are the ones to beat. Hot Gamer tops our model in Race 1 at a fair 3/1 morning line, while Cole's Valentine stretches out to a mile in Race 2 — always an interesting spot to catch a lightly raced horse finding its distance. Violenta rounds out the free card in Race 3, where a class-and-pace read makes her a logical favorite despite a 9/2 morning line that suggests the market isn't fully convinced yet.

The common thread across all three? Surface conditions this afternoon favor horses that can settle comfortably off the pace and come home strong in the final furlong — and all three of our free picks fit that profile.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

8:51 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This maiden claiming sprint at six furlongs has three horses bunched within four points at the top of the TrackWiz ratings — an unusually tight trio that makes the top of the card competitive, with a value angle hiding in the morning-line odds.

win7Alabama SleeperML 4/1

Alabama Sleeper tops our ratings at 85.62 for trainer Randall R. Russell with Gaddiel A. Martinez in the irons, yet sits at 4/1 on the morning line — a number that looks exploitable given the horse rates ahead of the 5/2 favorite. The average speed of 53 is middle of the pack, but our overall model separates her from the field. In a maiden field where no one has proven themselves, rating edge is the most reliable guide, and Alabama Sleeper has it.

place3King of SwordsML 6/1

King of Swords checks in at 82.34 — just a half-point behind Alabama Sleeper — for trainer Timothy E. Hamm with Taylor Kingsley up. The morning line of 6/1 is where the value lives in this race: if you believe our model, you're getting an overlay on a horse with the second-best rating in the field. This is the place horse to build around in your exactas and trifectas.

show1Stark CountyML 5/2

Stark County rates third overall at 81.28 for trainer Keri Brion and Scott Spieth, the morning-line favorite at 5/2. The rating cluster at the top is tight — just 4.34 points separates first from third — so Stark County is very much alive in this race. A show play or trifecta inclusion here makes sense as a hedge against the top-rated pair.

Race 5

9:18 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Five furlongs at Presque Isle in a Starter Optional Claiming sprint that features a field with legitimate career credentials — multiple horses show 20%-plus win rates, setting up a competitive heat where pace could be the deciding factor.

win4Irish VictoryML 5/1

Irish Victory lands at the top of the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 despite a 5/1 morning line that offers solid overlay value. Trainer Aldana Spieth hands the call to son Scott Spieth — a tight barn combination — and Irish Victory's 27% career win rate is tied for the best in the field. The pace scenario in a five-furlong sprint often rewards horses who can control the early fractions, and this one's profile fits the bill.

place2Call Me LaterML 7/2

Call Me Later is just a hair behind at 82.89 for trainer Randall R. Russell with Addiel J. Ayala riding. A 10% career win rate doesn't fully capture the picture here — what matters is the raw rating in a short sprint, and Call Me Later sits firmly in contention at 7/2. If Irish Victory gets pressured up front, a horse with this rating profile can capitalize in the stretch.

show6StraightoutaduttonML 5/2

Straightoutadutton rates 82.62 — essentially a dead heat with Call Me Later in our model — for trainer Randall R. Russell. Notably, Russell saddles two of the top three rated horses in this race, which speaks to the barn's familiarity with the conditions. David Delgado picks up the mount, and at 5/2, she's actually underpriced as a show option but overpriced relative to her rating versus Irish Victory.

Race 6

9:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An Allowance Optional Claiming sprint at six furlongs where the career win percentages are eye-popping — three horses in the field carry a 100% win rate, which means lightly raced animals with unblemished records make pace scenario and trainer intent the keys to unlocking the winner.

win4Bossy WossyML 9/5

Bossy Wossy tops our ratings at 58.67 and carries a perfect 100% career win rate for trainer Juan Arriagada with Israel O. Rodriguez in the irons. She also sports the highest average speed figure in the race at 57, which in a six-furlong dirt sprint is a meaningful edge. The morning line of 9/5 makes her the public's choice as well, and our numbers agree — she's the most complete profile in this field of unbeaten or lightly-raced horses.

place2IcebreakML 3/1

Icebreak checks in at 56.67 for trainer Timothy E. Hamm with Hector Rafael Diaz, Jr. up — and owns a 50% career win rate that is as reliable as it gets at this level. At 3/1, she's a comfortable place selection underneath Bossy Wossy and the kind of consistent performer who earns her way into exacta tickets. Her average speed of 54 ties several rivals, but the win percentage separates her from most of the field.

show3What's Your NameML 5/1

What's Your Name is intriguing at 5/1 for trainer Ron G. Potts with Antonio A. Gallardo riding. She carries a 100% career win rate and the second-best average speed in the race at 56, matching the field's top speed horses. The rating of 53.33 is third overall, and at that price, she makes for a legitimate show play and an interesting trifecta piece — especially for those who want exposure to multiple unbeaten profiles in the race.

Race 7

10:12 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The Allowance Optional Claiming route at a mile and 70 yards features a clear top two in the TrackWiz ratings that are well-separated from the rest — but the morning-line odds flip the ratings order, creating a potential overlay on our top pick.

win1GroundedML 9/5

Grounded heads our ratings at 88.83 — the highest single-horse rating on the entire card today — for trainer Scooter Davis with Rosario Montanez in the irons. A 44% career win rate is elite for any level, and in a route race where stamina and tactical positioning matter, that kind of proven winner profile commands respect. At 9/5 on the morning line, the public has caught on, but our numbers say the price is still fair for the best-rated horse in today's card.

place5Heavy PourML 2/1

Heavy Pour rates second at 85.68 for trainer Juan Arriagada with Israel O. Rodriguez up — a formidable combination at this level. The morning line of 2/1 actually makes Heavy Pour the public's slight favorite, though our model puts Grounded a tick ahead. A 25% career win rate is solid, and with an average speed of 55 that leads the field alongside Aleman, Heavy Pour is a must-include underneath in exactas and trifectas.

show3He's a MessML 3/1

He's a Mess rates third overall at 72.77 for trainer Scooter Davis — who is also the trainer of our top pick Grounded. Antonio A. Gallardo picks up this mount, and a 24% career win rate signals a horse that has competed successfully at this class level. At 3/1, there's value in including He's a Mess in the third slot of trifectas, especially with the barn double giving Davis a strong overall presence in the race.

Race 8

10:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The deepest field of the night goes to post in this 5.5-furlong claiming sprint — twelve horses spread across a wide range of TrackWiz ratings, with a clear top tier emerging from the chaos and a handful of longshot prices that will inflate the exotics.

win10Gus's GalML 6/1

Gus's Gal tops our ratings at 82.71 for trainer Michael C. Pappada with Martina Rojas in the saddle, yet the morning line of 6/1 undervalues her relative to the rest of the field. An 11% career win rate is modest, but in a claiming field of twelve, consistency and rating edge matter most — and she has both. In a race where the top-rated horse is also one of the better-priced selections, our model sees a clear overlay worth pressing.

place12Tiger Eye PearlML 7/1

Tiger Eye Pearl rates second overall at 81.25 for trainer Juan Arriagada, who has been a consistent presence throughout this card. Israel O. Rodriguez, who has multiple mounts today, pilots her in the sprint. A 14% career win rate and an average speed of 54 combine with the second-best TrackWiz rating to make her the natural place horse — and at 7/1 on the morning line, she's a genuine overlay in the exacta.

show11Sweet Carol JamesML 3/1

Sweet Carol James checks in third at 69.17 for trainer Rory M. Barron with Victor Severino up. She leads all horses in the race with a 55 average speed figure — the top mark in the field — which is a meaningful stat in a sprint where early fractions often dictate the outcome. At 3/1, she'll likely be well-bet, but the speed figure edge justifies her inclusion as a show play and a trifecta anchor in a wide-open twelve-horse field.

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Eight races, a comfortable afternoon, and a card with real betting opportunities scattered from the first gate break to the nightcap. Hot Gamer, Cole's Valentine, and Violenta are the free plays to start your day — and Grounded in Race 7 is the marquee spot our model is most excited about. Full card analysis, pace projections, and exotic strategies are all waiting for subscribers. Good luck at the windows.

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