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Presque Isle Downs Picks & Predictions — August 17, 2026

August 17, 20268 racesAll Presque Isle Downs picks

This card ran on August 17, 2026.

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Best bets at Presque Isle Downs, August 17, 2026

Race 13ShaunnasaprilfoolML 5/23:30 PM EDT

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Results are in — see the official Presque Isle Downs chart and payouts (our top pick won 3 of 8)→

It's a pleasant Monday at Presque Isle Downs — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 74°F mean no weather headaches today. The track should be playing fair, and with eight races all on the main dirt strip, the card has a nice rhythm to it from top to bottom.

The headliner is the Race 7 stakes, which gives the afternoon a genuine focal point, but don't sleep on the earlier claiming and allowance races — our TrackWiz ratings are flagging some strong contenders and at least one price play that could make for a profitable afternoon if you're paying attention.

Three races are fully open to all readers, with free analysis on Races 1, 2, and 3. The back half of the card — including the stakes feature and a pair of route claimers we love — is available to TrackWiz subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

3:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A one-mile-plus claiming opener with a clear top two in the ratings — but the morning line favorite isn't the TrackWiz top pick, which creates an interesting overlay situation right out of the gate.

win3ShaunnasaprilfoolML 5/2

Shaunnasaprilfool enters as our top-rated horse at 87.81 and brings the best career win percentage in this field at 25% — one in every four starts results in a victory, which is elite for this level. Victor Severino gets the call, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the price feels about right for a horse with this kind of consistent output. The average speed figure of 53 is competitive, and stretching out to a mile and 70 yards shouldn't be an issue for a horse who profiles as a class standout in this claiming field. This is our best bet to open the card.

place1Dominant StrangerML 3/1

Dominant Stranger sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71, making the 3/1 morning line a workable number for a place ticket. Huber Villa-Gomez is an experienced hand around this circuit, and the 8% career win rate underscores that this is a horse who hits the board more than he wins — exactly the profile you want for a place play. He should have enough to hold off the rest of the field for a share of the prize.

show4Little MarthaML 4/1

Little Martha rounds out the exotic tickets with a 73.31 rating and a solid 20% career win rate, which tells you she competes. The 54 average speed figure is actually the best in the field, a detail worth noting when the race stretches beyond a mile. At 4/1, she's a legitimate show contender and worth including in trifecta combinations underneath the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

3:57 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse maiden claiming sprint where every runner is still looking for win number one — making our top pick's TrackWiz rating advantage all the more meaningful in a wide-open, unpredictable field.

win3She's LitML 6/1

She's Lit dominates this maiden field with a 78.92 TrackWiz rating — more than 16 points clear of her nearest rival — and posts an average speed figure of 54, tied for second-best in the race. Trainer Randall R. Russell also saddles Tworly Bluebell, suggesting he has a solid barn presence today. The 6/1 morning line is the real story here: our top-rated horse going off at a price that offers genuine value in a race where the 5/2 chalk (Cowgirl Jig) rates nearly 21 points lower. Gaddiel A. Martinez picks up the mount and is a capable pilot at this track.

place8Tworly BluebellML 4/1

Tworly Bluebell checks in at 62.90 on the TrackWiz scale with the best average speed figure in the field at 55, which matters in a six-furlong sprint where early energy translates directly. Also trained by Russell, the barn duo could set up a nice exacta if She's Lit tops the board. At 4/1, Tworly Bluebell is a logical place backup and a key part of any exotic play.

show4Cowgirl JigML 5/2

Cowgirl Jig is the morning line favorite at 5/2 despite rating third on our scale at 57.50, and that disconnect is worth paying attention to. She posts the joint-best speed figure in the field at 55 alongside Tworly Bluebell, so raw ability is not the question — it's whether the crowd is simply overvaluing her with trainer Kevin Rice. Use her in the show slot of your trifectas but don't let the public price dictate your confidence level.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

The free portion of today's card gives you a solid cross-section to work with. Shaunnasaprilfool opens things up in Race 1 — a mile-and-70-yard dirt route for claimers — and carries our highest free-race rating at 87.81, which puts her squarely in the conversation as one of the strongest figures on the entire card. In Race 2, She's Lit catches our eye at 6/1 morning line odds in the maiden claiming sprint — that's the kind of price that can anchor a nice exacta or double play. Then in Race 3, Thank You Amy is the most intriguing of the trio: posted at 8/1 in an allowance optional claiming sprint, her TrackWiz rating of 79.79 suggests she's capable of running a bigger race than the morning line implies.

The common thread in these three races? All are dirt sprints or routes where pace scenario matters. Keep an eye on how the early fractions set up — a hot pace in the sprint races could set the table for closers, while the route in Race 1 may reward the horse that settles and pounces late.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

4:24 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A short, sharp five-horse allowance optional claiming sprint where the morning line favorite rates well below the TrackWiz top pick — and the real value might be hiding in plain sight at 8/1.

win3Thank You AmyML 8/1

Thank You Amy is the TrackWiz top selection at 79.79 despite going off at 8/1 on the morning line, making this our best value play of the early card. Ron G. Potts sends her out with Huber Villa-Gomez in the irons, and the career win rate of 33% is exceptional — one in every three starts results in a trip to the winner's circle. The speed figure of 55 is competitive in this spot, and the disconnect between her rating and her price suggests the public is leaning too hard toward Strutsherstuff, who is the 2/1 chalk but sits more than 36 points lower on our scale.

place1Don't Tell KellyML 5/2

Don't Tell Kelly draws the rail with a 75.08 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win rate, both of which scream live contender in a five-horse field. The 56 average speed figure is the co-best in the race alongside Strutsherstuff, and trainer Murray L. Rojas teams with Antonio A. Gallardo — a familiar combination at Presque Isle Downs. At 5/2, she's fairly priced but very much a horse to include underneath Thank You Amy in the exacta.

show2Xmas in CairoML 7/2

Xmas in Cairo slots in third on the TrackWiz scale at 63.43 with a 20% career win rate and gets Israel O. Rodriguez aboard for trainer Bernard G. Dunham. Her 55 average speed figure matches the field's upper tier, and in a race where the top two choices are priced at 8/1 and 5/2, she could easily drift into some nice exotic payoffs if she runs to her numbers. A solid show inclusion at 7/2.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 4

4:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The first premium race of the night features a genuine battle at the top of the ratings, with the top-rated horse NOT holding the lowest morning line — a setup that gives bettors two angles to attack.

win4DiverML 3/1

Diver tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 going off at 3/1, and that combination of top marks and fair price is exactly what you want when building a win ticket. Angel R. Rodriguez gets the mount for trainer Brandon L. Kulp, and the 14% career win rate in what appears to be a solid career sample suggests he finds the winner's circle regularly enough to trust. The 53 average speed figure puts him within range of the field's front-runners, and at a mile on dirt, patience in the early going could be the difference. This is our best bet in Race 4.

place2Live StreamML 9/5

Live Stream is the morning line favorite at 9/5 and rates a close second on our scale at 85.99 — only about one point behind Diver. The 56 average speed figure is the best in the field, and a 20% career win rate for trainer Juan Arriagada's runner suggests consistent effort. The key question is whether the short price offers enough value on top, which is why we slot her into the place position — she should be right there at the wire, but the odds make place a smarter ticket than win.

show5Maximum FaithML 9/2

Maximum Faith rounds out the exotics at 72.36 on our scale — a notable gap below the top two, but the 22% career win rate is the second-best in the field. Carlos Barbosa takes the mount for Kevin Rice, and at 9/2 on the morning line, there's legitimate place-show value here if the top two horses hook up in a pace duel. Include her in trifecta boxes as a hedge against a wide-open finish.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

5:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

An eight-horse claiming route at a mile and 70 yards where the TrackWiz top pick sits at 7/2 on the morning line and a pair of double-digit longshots lurk as intriguing exotic supplements.

win8TravellerML 7/2

Traveller comes in with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.35 and gets Gaddiel A. Martinez in the saddle for trainer Kimberly DePasquale — a solid combination for a horse with this kind of rating advantage. The 7/2 morning line feels fair, maybe even slightly generous given the rating edge. The 7% career win rate is modest, but speed figures tell the real story here, and at a mile and 70 yards on dirt, the pace scenario could set up perfectly for a closer who runs her numbers. This is our Race 5 top selection.

place2ElfuegomasbrilanteML 8/1

Elfuegomasbrilante sits second on the TrackWiz scale at 71.52 and is listed at 8/1 on the morning line — meaning if she runs to her rating, there's genuine overlay value for place bettors. Angel R. Rodriguez rides for Brandon L. Kulp, and while the 5% career win rate is low, the TrackWiz rating suggests the form is better than the record indicates. At that price, she belongs in every exacta and trifecta combination you play.

show4Gun PolicyML 10/1

Gun Policy rates third in the field at 70.67 with a 25% career win rate — the best in this field — and goes off at a tempting 10/1 on the morning line. Huber Villa-Gomez picks up the mount for Kevin Rice, and that career win percentage tells you this horse knows how to finish. The average speed figure of 52 is modest, but if the pace collapses up front, Gun Policy's experience winning races could make the difference in a multi-horse photo. A strong trifecta piece at a double-digit price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

5:45 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A seven-horse starter optional claiming route where our top pick sits at 6/1 despite carrying the highest TrackWiz rating in the field — a legitimate value angle in a race with a competitive pace scenario shaping up.

win7Rock N Roll BoltML 6/1

Rock N Roll Bolt tops the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 and goes off at 6/1, making this one of the cleaner value plays on the card tonight. Santiago Gonzalez takes the mount for trainer Jose M. Camejo, and the 20% career win rate is respectable for this level — one in five starts. The 54 average speed figure matches the field's upper tier, and at a mile and 70 yards, a horse who rates this well deserves to be at shorter odds. The public appears to be overlooking him, and that's our opportunity.

place5Brilliant JourneyML 5/2

Brilliant Journey checks in at 78.62 on our scale — second-best in the field — and brings a 22% career win rate that underlines consistent competitiveness. Rosario Montanez rides for Michael C. Pappada at a 5/2 morning line price that reflects public confidence, even if our ratings say she should be narrowly behind Rock N Roll Bolt. She's a logical place ticket and a key exacta piece alongside the top pick.

show1HappyisashappydoesML 4/1

Happyisashappydoes rates third in the field at 77.40 with the best career win percentage among our top three picks at 24%. Trainer Juan Arriagada also saddles Ready to Fly, giving the barn a two-pronged attack in this race. Antonio A. Gallardo gets the mount at 4/1, and with those career numbers in a field where the top three are tightly bunched in the ratings, this horse is a strong show candidate and trifecta must-use.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

6:12 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The stakes race on tonight's card features a field loaded with high win percentages — multiple horses are closing in on 50% career win rates — making this a genuinely competitive nightcap with real value hiding under the favorites.

win6Candy RewardML 6/1

Candy Reward ties for the top TrackWiz rating in this stakes field at 82.71 and brings a 46% career win rate — nearly one in every two starts — which is an elite strike rate at any level. Angel R. Rodriguez gets the call for trainer Brandon L. Kulp, and the 55 average speed figure is tied for best in the field. Going off at 6/1 in a race where our ratings say she belongs at the top of the order is exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz analysis is designed to uncover. Don't let the morning line fool you — this is our stakes race best bet.

place3Smooch UpML 9/2

Smooch Up is just a fraction behind at 82.36 on our scale and brings the most impressive career win rate among our top picks at 57% — more than half of all career starts result in a win. Israel O. Rodriguez takes the mount for Ron G. Potts, and the 55 average speed figure matches Candy Reward stride for stride. At 9/2, there may not be much overlay here, but her numbers are too good to leave off the place line. A key exacta partner with our win pick.

show1Nature's CandyML 3/1

Nature's Candy closes out our exotics with a 77.08 rating, a 33% career win rate, and the morning line favor at 3/1 — suggesting the crowd is high on her even if our model has her slotted third. Andy Hernandez rides for Hugo O. Padilla, and the 54 average speed figure is competitive in this group. In a race this deep with quality, using her underneath our top two in the trifecta is a sound defensive play at a price that should keep the payoff interesting.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

6:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The finale is an eight-horse claiming route where our top-rated horse at 87.81 goes off at only 5/2, setting up a battle between a clear top pick and a field with a couple of sneaky contenders in the place-show mix.

win8Secretary of WarML 5/2

Secretary of War heads into the finale as the highest-rated horse on tonight's entire card at 87.81 — a number that demands respect regardless of race type. Gaddiel A. Martinez takes the mount for S. Matthew Kintz, and a 15% career win rate suggests he hits the board regularly without necessarily dominating, which at 5/2 makes the win bet the right call here. The 53 average speed figure is solid for this field, and the rating advantage over the rest of this field is significant enough that we're comfortable making him our Race 8 best bet. Back him to win and use him on top in all exotics.

place2Goose HunterML 3/1

Goose Hunter sits second in the ratings at 65.82 — a sizable gap below Secretary of War but well clear of most of the field — and Hector Rafael Diaz Jr. gets the mount for Leland Hayes. The 53 average speed figure is competitive, and a 13% career win rate tells you he's a horse who can find the board. At 3/1 on the morning line, he's the logical place-ticket companion to our win pick and anchors the exacta.

show6LouisianimalML 6/1

Louisianimal rates third in this field at 57.55 with a 19% career win rate — better than average for this level — and Ciera Pruitt picks up the mount for Ron G. Potts. The 55 average speed figure is the best in the entire eight-horse field, which is a stat worth circling; if she gets to the front and the pace is honest, she could hang on for a share at 6/1. A legitimate trifecta piece and a horse with enough raw speed to be dangerous in the stretch.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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Bottom line for today at Presque Isle: Shaunnasaprilfool is our top-rated free play, Thank You Amy is the longshot angle worth a look in the allowance, and the stakes race featuring Candy Reward at 6/1 is the premium centerpiece. It's the kind of card where doing the homework pays off — and that's exactly what the full TrackWiz breakdown is built for. Good luck out there, and bet smart.

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