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Presque Isle Downs Picks & Predictions — August 17, 2026
It's a pleasant Monday at Presque Isle Downs — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 74°F mean no weather headaches today. The track should be playing fair, and with eight races all on the main dirt strip, the card has a nice rhythm to it from top to bottom.
The headliner is the Race 7 stakes, which gives the afternoon a genuine focal point, but don't sleep on the earlier claiming and allowance races — our TrackWiz ratings are flagging some strong contenders and at least one price play that could make for a profitable afternoon if you're paying attention.
Three races are fully open to all readers, with free analysis on Races 1, 2, and 3. The back half of the card — including the stakes feature and a pair of route claimers we love — is available to TrackWiz subscribers.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt
A one-mile-plus claiming opener with a clear top two in the ratings — but the morning line favorite isn't the TrackWiz top pick, which creates an interesting overlay situation right out of the gate.
Shaunnasaprilfool enters as our top-rated horse at 87.81 and brings the best career win percentage in this field at 25% — one in every four starts results in a victory, which is elite for this level. Victor Severino gets the call, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the price feels about right for a horse with this kind of consistent output. The average speed figure of 53 is competitive, and stretching out to a mile and 70 yards shouldn't be an issue for a horse who profiles as a class standout in this claiming field. This is our best bet to open the card.
Dominant Stranger sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71, making the 3/1 morning line a workable number for a place ticket. Huber Villa-Gomez is an experienced hand around this circuit, and the 8% career win rate underscores that this is a horse who hits the board more than he wins — exactly the profile you want for a place play. He should have enough to hold off the rest of the field for a share of the prize.
Little Martha rounds out the exotic tickets with a 73.31 rating and a solid 20% career win rate, which tells you she competes. The 54 average speed figure is actually the best in the field, a detail worth noting when the race stretches beyond a mile. At 4/1, she's a legitimate show contender and worth including in trifecta combinations underneath the top two.
Race 2
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A nine-horse maiden claiming sprint where every runner is still looking for win number one — making our top pick's TrackWiz rating advantage all the more meaningful in a wide-open, unpredictable field.
She's Lit dominates this maiden field with a 78.92 TrackWiz rating — more than 16 points clear of her nearest rival — and posts an average speed figure of 54, tied for second-best in the race. Trainer Randall R. Russell also saddles Tworly Bluebell, suggesting he has a solid barn presence today. The 6/1 morning line is the real story here: our top-rated horse going off at a price that offers genuine value in a race where the 5/2 chalk (Cowgirl Jig) rates nearly 21 points lower. Gaddiel A. Martinez picks up the mount and is a capable pilot at this track.
Tworly Bluebell checks in at 62.90 on the TrackWiz scale with the best average speed figure in the field at 55, which matters in a six-furlong sprint where early energy translates directly. Also trained by Russell, the barn duo could set up a nice exacta if She's Lit tops the board. At 4/1, Tworly Bluebell is a logical place backup and a key part of any exotic play.
Cowgirl Jig is the morning line favorite at 5/2 despite rating third on our scale at 57.50, and that disconnect is worth paying attention to. She posts the joint-best speed figure in the field at 55 alongside Tworly Bluebell, so raw ability is not the question — it's whether the crowd is simply overvaluing her with trainer Kevin Rice. Use her in the show slot of your trifectas but don't let the public price dictate your confidence level.
Race 3
Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A short, sharp five-horse allowance optional claiming sprint where the morning line favorite rates well below the TrackWiz top pick — and the real value might be hiding in plain sight at 8/1.
Thank You Amy is the TrackWiz top selection at 79.79 despite going off at 8/1 on the morning line, making this our best value play of the early card. Ron G. Potts sends her out with Huber Villa-Gomez in the irons, and the career win rate of 33% is exceptional — one in every three starts results in a trip to the winner's circle. The speed figure of 55 is competitive in this spot, and the disconnect between her rating and her price suggests the public is leaning too hard toward Strutsherstuff, who is the 2/1 chalk but sits more than 36 points lower on our scale.
Don't Tell Kelly draws the rail with a 75.08 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win rate, both of which scream live contender in a five-horse field. The 56 average speed figure is the co-best in the race alongside Strutsherstuff, and trainer Murray L. Rojas teams with Antonio A. Gallardo — a familiar combination at Presque Isle Downs. At 5/2, she's fairly priced but very much a horse to include underneath Thank You Amy in the exacta.
Xmas in Cairo slots in third on the TrackWiz scale at 63.43 with a 20% career win rate and gets Israel O. Rodriguez aboard for trainer Bernard G. Dunham. Her 55 average speed figure matches the field's upper tier, and in a race where the top two choices are priced at 8/1 and 5/2, she could easily drift into some nice exotic payoffs if she runs to her numbers. A solid show inclusion at 7/2.
The free portion of today's card gives you a solid cross-section to work with. Shaunnasaprilfool opens things up in Race 1 — a mile-and-70-yard dirt route for claimers — and carries our highest free-race rating at 87.81, which puts her squarely in the conversation as one of the strongest figures on the entire card. In Race 2, She's Lit catches our eye at 6/1 morning line odds in the maiden claiming sprint — that's the kind of price that can anchor a nice exacta or double play. Then in Race 3, Thank You Amy is the most intriguing of the trio: posted at 8/1 in an allowance optional claiming sprint, her TrackWiz rating of 79.79 suggests she's capable of running a bigger race than the morning line implies.
The common thread in these three races? All are dirt sprints or routes where pace scenario matters. Keep an eye on how the early fractions set up — a hot pace in the sprint races could set the table for closers, while the route in Race 1 may reward the horse that settles and pounces late.
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Bottom line for today at Presque Isle: Shaunnasaprilfool is our top-rated free play, Thank You Amy is the longshot angle worth a look in the allowance, and the stakes race featuring Candy Reward at 6/1 is the premium centerpiece. It's the kind of card where doing the homework pays off — and that's exactly what the full TrackWiz breakdown is built for. Good luck out there, and bet smart.