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Presque Isle Downs Picks & Predictions — August 11, 2026

August 11, 20268 racesAll Presque Isle Downs picks

This card ran on August 11, 2026.

Best bets at Presque Isle Downs, August 11, 2026

Race 12American SurferML 7/23:30 PM EDT

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It's a pleasant Tuesday afternoon at Presque Isle Downs — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 77°F — and the track is serving up a full eight-race dirt card that gives bettors plenty to work with from first post to last. Conditions look favorable for fast footing, so expect speed figures to hold up and front-runners to get every opportunity to wire the field.

The card mixes maiden action with a trio of claiming events and two Starter Optional Claiming spots that draw some of the more competitive horses on the grounds. Race 6 is the one circled on our card — Goodie Goomer draws the top TrackWiz rating of the day at 88.54 with a morning line of 2/1, and that combination of price and rating screams playable chalk. Keep an eye on the two routes (Races 7 and 8 going a mile and 70 yards) as well — the added distance on this oval tends to sort things out in a hurry.

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Race 1

3:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight over six furlongs where TrackWiz ratings separate one horse from the pack — but maiden races are always a wild card with unknowns at every post.

win2American SurferML 7/2

American Surfer owns the field's top TrackWiz rating by a significant margin at 86.35 — nearly 30 points clear of the next closest rival. Trainer Jeremiah O'Dwyer puts him out at 7/2 on the morning line, which represents fair value given that rating edge. In a maiden sprint where first-timers or lightly-raced horses can surprise, having the top-rated horse in the field is exactly the kind of edge you want on your side. Jockey Taylor Kingsley picks up the mount, and the pairing looks live.

place1Trail of RosesML 3/1

Trail of Roses draws the rail and goes postward at 3/1 under Antonio A. Gallardo for trainer Todd M. Beattie. Her TrackWiz rating of 56.67 slots her second in the field and gives her a realistic shot at hitting the board in a race where the competition is closely bunched. The inside post in a six-furlong sprint isn't a disadvantage, and if American Surfer takes the field on a pace duel, Trail of Roses could be there to mop up at the wire.

show5RizzML 9/2

Rizz at 9/2 morning line carries a 49.99 TrackWiz rating and a slight speed edge over the bottom of this field. Trainer Adam Rice sends him out with Gaddiel A. Martinez aboard — a jockey who gets around this oval regularly and knows how to place a horse. In a five-horse maiden field, the show pool collapses quickly, but Rizz has enough upside at that price to make him a useful exotic piece.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

3:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Del Rayo comes in with a commanding rating advantage in this one-mile claiming test, but a field with multiple double-digit career win percentages means speed and class could be contested all the way around.

win1Del RayoML 3/1

Del Rayo tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 — a meaningful gap over City Leader's 74.30 and the rest of the field. He carries a 14% career win rate and an average speed figure of 53, in line with the top speed horses in this field. Trainer John Fennessy puts him in at 3/1 with Walber Alencar in the irons, a competitive pairing for a route over a mile. At that price with the class edge our analysis identifies, Del Rayo is the clear top choice.

place2City LeaderML 7/2

City Leader is the logical place backup at 7/2, posting a 74.30 TrackWiz rating and a 13% career win rate. Trainer Ron G. Potts keeps a consistent stable, and Ciera Pruitt is a capable pilot who can rate a horse over a mile. If Del Rayo takes a wide trip or gets caught in traffic, City Leader has the raw ability to pounce and at least secure a spot on the board.

show7MarsacML 9/2

Marsac at 9/2 morning line rates third in this field at 63.60 and brings Victor Severino along for the ride. The career win rate of just 8% is a flag, but our analysis values this horse's overall profile enough to include him as a show play. In a seven-horse field going a route, pace scenarios can shake out in unpredictable ways, and Marsac's 9/2 price makes him a worthwhile exotic inclusion at the back end.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Our three free races — the opener, Race 2, and the five-furlong Maiden Claiming in Race 3 — give you a solid sample of what today's dirt is doing. American Surfer (7/2 morning line, 86.35 rating) kicks things off in the six-furlong Maiden Special Weight, a spot where pace scenario and early speed can be everything. Del Rayo follows in Race 2 going the longer route at 3/1, rated the strongest of the free trio at 87.08 — routes at Presque Isle have historically rewarded horses who can settle and unleash late, so watch for that pace dynamic. Then Grandes Suenos pops up at 8/1 in Race 3 with a 79.79 rating — a juicy longshot number in a short field where value can emerge quickly at the five-furlong sprint distance.

The common thread across the free picks: all three are on dirt, all three carry morning lines that suggest beatable odds, and none of them are prohibitive favorites — meaning there's real overlay potential if our ratings hold up at the windows.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

4:24 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

This maiden claimer over five furlongs is a wide-open sprint with a hidden gem lurking near the top of the program — the kind of race where the morning line doesn't tell the whole story.

win8Grandes SuenosML 8/1

Grandes Suenos is the standout value angle in Race 3, sitting at 8/1 on the morning line despite packing the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 79.79 — more than 22 points clear of the next closest horse. Trainer Leland Hayes saddles him with Gaddiel A. Martinez, who has been active and effective throughout this card. The average speed figure of 54 is solid for a five-furlong maiden claimer, and the rating-to-odds mismatch here is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis is designed to find.

place4Back Back BackML 5/2

Back Back Back draws the 5/2 morning line as the public's second choice, and the 57.50 TrackWiz rating backs up the market's confidence — that's the second-highest score in this field. Trainer Larry Rivelli is a name that commands attention at any level, and Walter A. Rodriguez gets the mount. With no published average speed figure for this horse, the workout trail and Rivelli's credentials become the supporting case for a board finish.

show2No Risk No RewardML 3/1

No Risk No Reward goes at 3/1 for trainer Juan Arriagada with Antonio A. Gallardo aboard — a jockey who's already picked up mounts across multiple races today, showing barn confidence. The 56.67 TrackWiz rating slots him third in this field, making him a fair show option. In a nine-horse sprint, exotics can pay well even from the show slot, and No Risk No Reward's odds suggest a public underestimation of his chances.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 4

4:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Race 4 features a clear TrackWiz standout in a six-furlong claiming sprint, but a field with a 22% career winner and multiple horses hitting consistent speed figures keeps this from being a walkover.

win4BucchiniML 4/1

Bucchini tops the field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and comes in at 4/1 with Antonio A. Gallardo in the irons — a rider who's been busy and well-placed throughout tonight's card. Trainer John Guciardo sends him postward off a 16% career win rate, and his average speed figure of 55 matches the top speed horses in this field. The rating advantage is substantial, and at 4/1 on the morning line, Bucchini offers genuine value as our top selection.

place1Triple SecretML 10/1

Triple Secret is the eyecatcher at 10/1 morning line — a horse whose 64.83 TrackWiz rating and 15% career win rate are quietly competitive, but the market is likely overlooking him. Trainer Randall R. Russell sends him out with Gaddiel A. Martinez, and his average speed figure of 55 matches Bucchini blow-for-blow on raw pace. If the pace heats up early and Bucchini gets into a speed duel, Triple Secret at a double-digit price could be the value play who swoops for second.

show5Runaway BreezeML 3/1

Runaway Breeze opens as the 3/1 second choice on the morning line, and while our analysis slots him third overall, a 64.41 TrackWiz rating and 55 average speed figure keep him squarely in the mix. Trainer Justin R. Morrell fields him with Scott Spieth, and the career win rate of just 8% is worth noting — but in a sprint, class and pace matter more than overall record. He's a reasonable show hedge in exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

5:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong claiming sprint might be the most competitive race on the card — three horses rated 81 or above with career win percentages that would make any handicapper look twice.

win1Blazing BoML 7/2

Blazing Bo tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and brings a career win rate of 26% — one of the more impressive records on today's full card. Trainer Juan Arriagada and jockey Antonio A. Gallardo are a barn-rider combo that's already shown up multiple times tonight, which speaks to the connections' confidence in their stock. At 7/2 on the morning line, Blazing Bo is attractively priced for a horse leading both the ratings and the win percentage rankings in this field.

place3Garnet and GoldML 5/2

Garnet and Gold is the most intriguing horse in this race from a pure career-record standpoint — a 35% career win rate is genuinely elite at the claiming level. Carlos Barbosa takes the mount for trainer Adam Rice, and the 85.26 TrackWiz rating confirms this horse belongs right in the thick of things at 5/2. The separation between Blazing Bo and Garnet and Gold is razor thin on ratings, meaning the place slot is a natural landing spot if anything goes wrong with the top choice.

show4Mrs. ManicottiML 2/1

Mrs. Manicotti opens as the morning-line favorite at 2/1, and an 81.38 TrackWiz rating backs up that public support. Trainer Kimberly DePasquale also has I'm Heading East in this race — a two-horse barn entry — which adds strategic depth to how the race might unfold. The 20% career win rate and 55 average speed figure make Mrs. Manicotti a legitimate contender; she's our show choice but don't be surprised if she runs bigger than that.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

5:45 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A starter optional claimer over six furlongs where one horse's rating dominates a competitive field — though Fadethenoise's top speed figure and Outhustle's remarkable win rate add layers to the pace setup.

win2Goodie GoomerML 2/1

Goodie Goomer is the most dominant top choice on tonight's card, carrying an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest single-horse rating we've seen all evening — while going off at just 2/1 on the morning line. A 30% career win rate is strong for the optional claiming ranks, and trainer Juan Arriagada puts him in with Antonio A. Gallardo, the busiest and most trusted rider on this card. The 56 average speed figure ties for best in the race, and there's little in this field capable of matching his overall profile.

place6FadethenoiseML 5/2

Fadethenoise posts the field's top average speed figure at 57 — a number that stands alone in this race — and carries a 35% career win rate that commands respect. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp sends him out with Eliseo Ruiz at 5/2 on the morning line, and while the 75.99 TrackWiz rating trails Goodie Goomer by a considerable margin, pure speed can keep a horse on the board in a six-furlong sprint. If Goodie Goomer is taken wide or gets into a pace duel, Fadethenoise has the tactical profile to take advantage.

show3OuthustleML 3/1

Outhustle brings the most jaw-dropping career win rate in the field — 46% — and that kind of record in the claiming ranks doesn't happen by accident. Trainer Randall R. Russell, who also saddles Reeled In in this race, clearly likes his spot here, and Mike Allen gets the call. The 69.81 TrackWiz rating and 56 average speed figure make him a legitimate contender for the show position, and at 3/1 he's priced in line with his form.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

6:12 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The evening's penultimate race stretches out to a mile and 70 yards in starter optional claiming company, where three horses rated above 79 set up what could be a closely contested stretch run.

win4NeededML 4/1

Needed gets the top spot from our analysis with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and a 16% career win rate, going postward at 4/1 with Victor Severino in the saddle. Trainer Brendan Gilmartin sends him out in a route that should suit his 53 average speed figure — right in line with the field's competitive range. At 4/1, there's real value on a horse carrying the field's top rating, especially when the distance stretches out and quality tends to separate from the pack.

place1Little Miss MunnyML 3/1

Little Miss Munny opens at 3/1 and carries an 83.17 TrackWiz rating — just a couple of ticks behind Needed — but the 7% career win rate gives some pause. Trainer Michael C. Pappada puts Martina Rojas on board, and the 52 average speed figure is the lowest among the top-rated contenders here, which could be a factor in a route. That said, the rating is legitimate and the price is fair; a place finish is a realistic expectation.

show5Liberty BelleML 9/2

Liberty Belle at 9/2 brings a 79.03 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — and a 14% career win rate that slots her comfortably in the mix. Gaddiel A. Martinez, one of tonight's most active riders, picks up the mount for trainer Michelle Winters, who also runs He's a Pisces in Race 8. The 53 average speed figure matches the field's competitive center, and at 9/2, Liberty Belle rounds out a logical exacta and trifecta box with the top two picks.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

6:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The nightcap is the most crowded race of the evening — ten horses going a mile and 70 yards in claiming company — and with four horses rated 70 or above, this shapes up as a genuine battle all the way to the wire.

win6Twist 'n TwirlML 4/1

Twist 'n Twirl earns the top rating in a packed field at 85.62 and goes postward at 4/1 with Antonio A. Gallardo — who has been one of the most in-demand riders all night. Trainer Tim Girten sends him out, and while the 3% career win rate is unusually low for a horse rated this highly, TrackWiz analysis factors in recent form and pace profiles that raw win percentages don't always capture. The 53 average speed figure is competitive, and the 4/1 price on the top-rated horse in a ten-horse field is exactly the kind of spot our model targets.

place4Mr. ColossalML 3/1

Mr. Colossal opens at 3/1 as a morning-line co-favorite and backs it up with a 76.89 TrackWiz rating — second in this field. Taylor Kingsley picks up the mount for trainer Rory M. Barron, and the 53 average speed figure is right in line with the competitive pace scenario this route figures to produce. The 0% career win rate is unusual for a morning-line favorite, suggesting this may be a lightly-raced horse with upside still to unlock — which makes him a strong place candidate.

show7IpledthefifthML 6/1

Ipledthefifth at 6/1 brings the field's top career win rate among the leading contenders at 16%, which reflects proven ability to get the job done in similar company. Trainer Katy Cheeks sends him out with Hector Rafael Diaz Jr., and the 74.22 TrackWiz rating slots him comfortably third in a ten-horse field. In a race this large, exotic payouts can swell quickly, and a horse with a 16% win rate and a 74-plus rating at 6/1 is exactly the kind of show anchor that makes trifectas worthwhile.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Bottom line: Presque Isle is dealing a manageable eight-race card on a beautiful afternoon, with Goodie Goomer as the day's marquee play and Del Rayo offering the best value-to-rating combo among the free picks. If you're playing the full card, don't leave the track without a multi-race wager in Races 7 and 8 — and our subscribers have everything they need to build those tickets smart. Good luck out there, and as always, bet what you can afford to lose.

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