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Presque Isle Downs Picks & Predictions — July 28, 2026

July 28, 20268 racesAll Presque Isle Downs picks

This card ran on July 28, 2026.

Best bets at Presque Isle Downs, July 28, 2026

Race 17Moonpie DelightML 9/23:30 PM EDT

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Happy Tuesday at Presque Isle Downs — and it's about as good as it gets weather-wise up on Lake Erie. Clear skies and 75°F means a fast, consistent dirt surface all afternoon, the kind of day where speed figures hold up and pace scenarios play out pretty much as drawn. Eight races on tap, all on the dirt, with distances ranging from a sharp six furlongs out to a mile and 70 yards.

The card leans heavily on claiming and allowance company — the bread and butter of a mid-week Erie card — but there's real meat on these bones. You've got maiden action to kick things off, a pair of route races that should produce some genuinely interesting pace dynamics, and enough competitive claiming sprints in the back half to keep the exotic tickets lively. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

3:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight going 6 furlongs on dirt, with a massive ratings gap between the top pick and the rest of the field — but maiden races are always full of unknowns.

win7Moonpie DelightML 9/2

Moonpie Delight draws the outside post but comes in with a TrackWiz rating of 84.9 — a full 28 points clear of the second-rated horse in the field. Trainer Randall R. Russell puts Gaddiel A. Martinez in the irons, a strong in-house combo to watch. With an average speed figure of 55, she's showing the most punch in morning works among horses with established figures. In a maiden sprint, that kind of rating separation is hard to ignore.

place3Naval SecretsML 3/1

Naval Secrets is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 and comes in with a solid rating of 56.67 for trainer Eoin G. Harty — a name that carries weight in the maiden ranks. No average speed figure is listed, which typically signals a first-time starter, meaning the upside here could be significant if the works have been sharp. Israel O. Rodriguez gets the mount, and at 3/1 in a maiden field this thin, there's real place-money value.

show2Trail of RosesML 6/1

Trail of Roses at 6/1 represents the best price among the top three in our ratings, making her an intriguing exotic inclusion. She posts a 51.67 rating for trainer Todd M. Beattie with Antonio A. Gallardo up, and her average speed of 54 keeps her competitive with the pace scenario here. At those morning-line odds in a wide-open maiden, she's worth a spot in your exacta and trifecta coverage.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

3:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Paschal Moon sets up as a clear class standout in this 6.5-furlong dirt claimer, but Tiz Big Money and Stargazzers Dream make this competitive enough to warrant exacta coverage.

win7Paschal MoonML 5/2

Paschal Moon gets the top billing with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and the best average speed figure in the field at 56 — a tick better than the cluster of 55s behind him. His 18% career win rate is respectable for a claiming runner, and trainer J. Michael Rogers hands the mount to Edwin Gonzalez. At 5/2, he's not a lock-it-up price, but the numbers clearly put him a step above the competition.

place1Tiz Big MoneyML 4/1

Tiz Big Money brings a 77.52 rating and a 16% career win percentage for trainer Randall R. Russell — the same barn that saddles Outsider in this race, so Russell is working both sides. Walber Alencar gets the call on the 1-horse, and at 4/1, there's genuine place value here. The 55 average speed figure keeps him right in the mix if Paschal Moon hits any traffic.

show3Stargazzers DreamML 9/2

Stargazzers Dream comes in at 9/2 on the morning line with a 74.36 rating and a 13% career win clip — solid enough for a claiming route. Trainer Kelsey Danner gives the mount to Hector Rafael Diaz Jr., and the 55 average speed ties her with the top of the field. She's the logical third wheel in trifectas and a safe show play if the top two run their races.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

TrackWiz is giving you a free look at the first three races today, and there's a common thread worth noting: all three go six furlongs on a surface that should favor early pace. On a clear, dry day like this at Presque Isle, the speed tends to get rewarded — so horses that can establish position in the first quarter mile without burning themselves up are worth a close look throughout the afternoon.

Moonpie Delight (9/2 morning line, Race 1) headlines the free card in the opener against maiden special weight company. Paschal Moon carries the highest confidence rating of the free trio at 87.81 and goes postward as a reasonable 5/2 chalk in Race 2. And in Race 3's allowance optional claiming, Going Up checks in at 9/2 on the morning line — the kind of overlay that can quietly deliver value when the board settles. Three solid starting points to build your ticket around.

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Race 3

4:24 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The allowance optional claiming conditions set up a fascinating pace duel — the morning-line favorite Souper Forces brings an eye-popping win rate, but the TrackWiz ratings tell a very different story.

win5Going UpML 9/2

Going Up tops our ratings at 80.52 and is posted at 9/2 on the morning line — that's genuine overlay territory in a five-horse field. Trainer Ron G. Potts has a runner with a 42% career win percentage, which is elite at this level, and the 57 average speed ties for the top of the field. Antonio A. Gallardo aboard makes this a strong win bet for TrackWiz followers looking to beat the chalk.

place3John DuttonML 8/1

John Dutton is the sneaky price of the race at 8/1 despite a 79.79 rating — nearly identical to our top pick's number. Trainer Scooter Davis sends him out with Rosario Montanez, and the 57 average speed shows he's working at the same clip as Going Up. His 19% career win rate in allowance-level company gives him every right to run a big race, and he's the best value play on the board in this spot.

show2Spirited SolML 5/2

Spirited Sol brings a 62.81 rating for trainer Kimberly DePasquale at 5/2 on the morning line, and Martina Rojas picks up the mount. Her 15% career win percentage and 55 average speed figure suggest she'll be competitive into the lane, even if she doesn't have the top-end ratings to win. She's the natural show anchor in your exotic plays here.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 4

4:51 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Time for an Angel looms as a dominant favorite in this starter optional claiming route, but the pace scenario over a mile and 70 yards sets up a lively supporting cast at attractive prices.

win5Time for an AngelML 2/1

Time for an Angel posts an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by a comfortable margin — and checks in as the 2/1 morning-line favorite. The 25% career win percentage for trainer Scooter Davis's runner is a strong number at this level, and Rosario Montanez knows how to rate a horse around two turns. The 55 average speed also leads the field, making this a horse that can win on paper in multiple ways.

place4Cocktail KissesML 6/1

Cocktail Kisses sits at 6/1 on the morning line with a 73.21 rating and a 15% career win percentage for trainer S. Matthew Kintz. Gaddiel A. Martinez takes the mount, and he's been one of the busier riders on the Presque Isle circuit. With a 53 average speed, Cocktail Kisses profiles as a grinder who can settle into a rhythm around two turns and grab a piece — solid place value at the price.

show2Night NurseML 7/1

Night Nurse at 7/1 with a 73.14 rating is essentially a coin flip with Cocktail Kisses on the TrackWiz numbers. Trainer John N. Poole gives the mount to Walber Alencar, and the 23% career win percentage is the second-best in the field behind only Time for an Angel. At 7/1, this is one of the better show plays on the card — she's got the numbers to hit the board and the price to make it worthwhile in your trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

5:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite and the TrackWiz top pick diverge sharply in this six-furlong dirt claimer — Hightail Fox holds a big ratings edge over the 2/1 chalk, setting up a potential upset scenario.

win8Hightail FoxML 5/2

Hightail Fox checks in with an 87.81 rating — the highest in the field — and an average speed of 55, which leads the pack. Victor Severino gets the call for trainer Michael C. Pappada, and at 5/2 on the morning line, there's still some overlay here given the ratings separation. The 6% career win percentage looks modest, but speed figures and ratings tell a more complete story than raw win rates alone.

place4Nicole's WillML 8/1

Nicole's Will is posted at 8/1 but carries a 64.92 TrackWiz rating — the second-best number in the field. Trainer Lance Stokes hands the mount to Edwin Gonzalez, and a 6% career win rate in this claiming company mirrors the level of competition. At those morning-line odds, she's the kind of price-value play that pays off in exactas when the favorite runs its race and a forgotten horse sneaks into second.

show3Party At the BeachML 7/2

Party At the Beach comes in at 7/2 with a 59.75 rating for trainer John Fennessy with Mike Allen up. A 5% career win percentage doesn't inspire confidence in a head-to-head matchup, but at 7/2 in a claiming sprint with multiple horses rated in the 50s, she represents solid show value. Her 54 average speed ties her in that mid-field cluster and gives her a realistic chance to grab third money.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

5:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Jenadriyah dominates the ratings in this six-furlong dirt claimer, but Two Scoops and Tiger Eye Pearl give the exacta and trifecta some teeth at attractive prices.

win3JenadriyahML 3/1

Jenadriyah holds a significant edge with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a 16% career win percentage for trainer Randall R. Russell. Gaddiel A. Martinez takes the mount — the same rider Russell uses for his best horses — and the 55 average speed figure leads a group where most of the field is bunched at 54-55. At 3/1, this is the kind of well-supported win pick where the numbers align with the public money.

place4Two ScoopsML 6/1

Two Scoops brings the second-best rating in the field at 69.84 and a 20% career win percentage — the highest win rate among all horses in this race. Trainer Timothy E. Hamm sends her out with Martina Rojas at 6/1 on the morning line, which looks like a legitimate overlay given her form profile. The 55 average speed keeps her right in the pace conversation, and 20% winners in claiming company are worth including in your place and exacta wagers.

show7Tiger Eye PearlML 5/2

Tiger Eye Pearl is the 5/2 second choice on the morning line but ranks third in our ratings at 63.84 — making her a bit of a price-figure mismatch. Antonio A. Gallardo rides for trainer Juan Arriagada, and the 16% career win percentage is respectable. Her 53 average speed is the one concern in a field that otherwise matches up well, but at those odds she's a natural show anchor and exacta underlay to consider.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

6:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Naked Eye looks like a dominant top selection in this mile-and-70-yard dirt claimer, but a tight cluster of mid-rated horses creates an intriguing supporting cast — especially Verbal Geyser at a big number.

win7Naked EyeML 2/1

Naked Eye tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and carries a 29% career win percentage — by far the best strike rate in this eight-horse field. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp gets Israel O. Rodriguez aboard, and the 55 average speed leads the route horses comfortably. At 2/1, the morning line confirms what the numbers suggest: this is the horse to beat going two turns.

place5Love Her LotsML 5/2

Love Her Lots is the 5/2 second choice for trainer S. Matthew Kintz with Gaddiel A. Martinez, posting a 51.43 rating and a solid 20% career win percentage. She's a natural pace presser in a two-turn race with multiple horses likely to contest the early fractions, which could set her up for a sweeping late run. The 52 average speed is the one modest note, but her win-rate profile says she belongs in the exacta.

show4Verbal GeyserML 8/1

Verbal Geyser at 8/1 is the value play of the race — a 25% career win percentage is the second-highest mark in the field and one of the strongest rate-to-odds mismatches on the card today. Trainer Michelle C. Brafford sends out Scott Spieth, and while the 52 average speed is on the lower end, that win rate in claiming company is impossible to dismiss. At those odds, she's worth a spot in your trifecta and a small show bet for the price hunters.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

6:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A competitive six-furlong dirt closer to wrap up the card — Garnet and Gold leads on ratings, but Float Away and Runaway Breeze make this a genuine top-three battle with a juicy trifecta setup.

win7Garnet and GoldML 5/2

Garnet and Gold posts the top TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and brings a 31% career win percentage — the best strike rate in the entire field. Trainer Kevin Rice hands the mount to Carlos Barbosa at 5/2 on the morning line, and the 54 average speed is right in line with the field. A 31% career win rate at the claiming level is genuinely elite, and that's the number that makes this the most compelling win bet of the final three races.

place1Float AwayML 3/1

Float Away carries an 84.25 rating and a 23% career win percentage for trainer W. John Bourke — numbers that would top most fields. Addiel J. Ayala takes the mount from the rail at 3/1, and breaking from the one-hole in a sprint can be an advantage at Presque Isle. She's very close to Garnet and Gold on the TrackWiz scale, which means the exacta combining the two deserves serious consideration.

show3Runaway BreezeML 7/2

Runaway Breeze rounds out our top three with an 82.95 rating for trainer Justin R. Morrell with Scott Spieth up at 7/2. His 55 average speed actually leads the field, and while the 8% career win percentage is modest, his recent speed figures suggest he may be coming into form at the right time. In a tightly bunched top-three where any of the three could win, Runaway Breeze at 7/2 is the value piece of the show trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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A clean summer afternoon, a fast Presque Isle dirt strip, and eight races with legitimate betting interest — this is a workmanlike Tuesday card that rewards sharp handicapping. Moonpie Delight, Paschal Moon, and Going Up are your free best bets to start. For the full-card breakdown, pace scenarios, and exotic ticket construction through the back half, TrackWiz subscribers have everything they need. Good luck out there — ride smart.

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