Presque Isle Downs Picks & Predictions — July 28, 2026
Happy Tuesday at Presque Isle Downs — and it's about as good as it gets weather-wise up on Lake Erie. Clear skies and 75°F means a fast, consistent dirt surface all afternoon, the kind of day where speed figures hold up and pace scenarios play out pretty much as drawn. Eight races on tap, all on the dirt, with distances ranging from a sharp six furlongs out to a mile and 70 yards.
The card leans heavily on claiming and allowance company — the bread and butter of a mid-week Erie card — but there's real meat on these bones. You've got maiden action to kick things off, a pair of route races that should produce some genuinely interesting pace dynamics, and enough competitive claiming sprints in the back half to keep the exotic tickets lively. Let's break it down.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt
A wide-open maiden special weight going 6 furlongs on dirt, with a massive ratings gap between the top pick and the rest of the field — but maiden races are always full of unknowns.
Moonpie Delight draws the outside post but comes in with a TrackWiz rating of 84.9 — a full 28 points clear of the second-rated horse in the field. Trainer Randall R. Russell puts Gaddiel A. Martinez in the irons, a strong in-house combo to watch. With an average speed figure of 55, she's showing the most punch in morning works among horses with established figures. In a maiden sprint, that kind of rating separation is hard to ignore.
Naval Secrets is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 and comes in with a solid rating of 56.67 for trainer Eoin G. Harty — a name that carries weight in the maiden ranks. No average speed figure is listed, which typically signals a first-time starter, meaning the upside here could be significant if the works have been sharp. Israel O. Rodriguez gets the mount, and at 3/1 in a maiden field this thin, there's real place-money value.
Trail of Roses at 6/1 represents the best price among the top three in our ratings, making her an intriguing exotic inclusion. She posts a 51.67 rating for trainer Todd M. Beattie with Antonio A. Gallardo up, and her average speed of 54 keeps her competitive with the pace scenario here. At those morning-line odds in a wide-open maiden, she's worth a spot in your exacta and trifecta coverage.
Race 2
Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt
Paschal Moon sets up as a clear class standout in this 6.5-furlong dirt claimer, but Tiz Big Money and Stargazzers Dream make this competitive enough to warrant exacta coverage.
Paschal Moon gets the top billing with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and the best average speed figure in the field at 56 — a tick better than the cluster of 55s behind him. His 18% career win rate is respectable for a claiming runner, and trainer J. Michael Rogers hands the mount to Edwin Gonzalez. At 5/2, he's not a lock-it-up price, but the numbers clearly put him a step above the competition.
Tiz Big Money brings a 77.52 rating and a 16% career win percentage for trainer Randall R. Russell — the same barn that saddles Outsider in this race, so Russell is working both sides. Walber Alencar gets the call on the 1-horse, and at 4/1, there's genuine place value here. The 55 average speed figure keeps him right in the mix if Paschal Moon hits any traffic.
Stargazzers Dream comes in at 9/2 on the morning line with a 74.36 rating and a 13% career win clip — solid enough for a claiming route. Trainer Kelsey Danner gives the mount to Hector Rafael Diaz Jr., and the 55 average speed ties her with the top of the field. She's the logical third wheel in trifectas and a safe show play if the top two run their races.
Race 3
Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
The allowance optional claiming conditions set up a fascinating pace duel — the morning-line favorite Souper Forces brings an eye-popping win rate, but the TrackWiz ratings tell a very different story.
Going Up tops our ratings at 80.52 and is posted at 9/2 on the morning line — that's genuine overlay territory in a five-horse field. Trainer Ron G. Potts has a runner with a 42% career win percentage, which is elite at this level, and the 57 average speed ties for the top of the field. Antonio A. Gallardo aboard makes this a strong win bet for TrackWiz followers looking to beat the chalk.
John Dutton is the sneaky price of the race at 8/1 despite a 79.79 rating — nearly identical to our top pick's number. Trainer Scooter Davis sends him out with Rosario Montanez, and the 57 average speed shows he's working at the same clip as Going Up. His 19% career win rate in allowance-level company gives him every right to run a big race, and he's the best value play on the board in this spot.
Spirited Sol brings a 62.81 rating for trainer Kimberly DePasquale at 5/2 on the morning line, and Martina Rojas picks up the mount. Her 15% career win percentage and 55 average speed figure suggest she'll be competitive into the lane, even if she doesn't have the top-end ratings to win. She's the natural show anchor in your exotic plays here.
TrackWiz is giving you a free look at the first three races today, and there's a common thread worth noting: all three go six furlongs on a surface that should favor early pace. On a clear, dry day like this at Presque Isle, the speed tends to get rewarded — so horses that can establish position in the first quarter mile without burning themselves up are worth a close look throughout the afternoon.
Moonpie Delight (9/2 morning line, Race 1) headlines the free card in the opener against maiden special weight company. Paschal Moon carries the highest confidence rating of the free trio at 87.81 and goes postward as a reasonable 5/2 chalk in Race 2. And in Race 3's allowance optional claiming, Going Up checks in at 9/2 on the morning line — the kind of overlay that can quietly deliver value when the board settles. Three solid starting points to build your ticket around.
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A clean summer afternoon, a fast Presque Isle dirt strip, and eight races with legitimate betting interest — this is a workmanlike Tuesday card that rewards sharp handicapping. Moonpie Delight, Paschal Moon, and Going Up are your free best bets to start. For the full-card breakdown, pace scenarios, and exotic ticket construction through the back half, TrackWiz subscribers have everything they need. Good luck out there — ride smart.