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Presque Isle Downs Picks & Predictions — May 27, 2026

Wednesday, May 27, 20268 racesPresque Isle Downs

Happy Wednesday from Presque Isle Downs, where a partly cloudy sky and a comfortable 73°F greet us for an eight-race all-dirt card. Conditions couldn't be much better for a mid-week afternoon at the lake — no rain in the picture, mild temps, and the kind of weather that tends to produce honest, true-running times on a fast surface.

The card covers a solid range of conditions, from maiden claimers and maiden special weights to allowance company, with distances stretching from a sharp six furlongs out to a mile and 70 yards. Whether you're hunting a prime chalk play or digging for a live longshot, there's plenty here to work with. Our TrackWiz ratings span from the low 80s into the upper 80s across the card, which signals a reasonably competitive day with a handful of standout contenders worth serious attention.

Three races are fully unlocked for everyone today — Races 1, 2, and 3 give you a look at how our analysis works. Races 4 through 8 are reserved for TrackWiz subscribers, and trust us, the back half of this card is where things really get interesting.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden claiming mile on the dirt where zero wins in the field means the form book is thin — but TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear hierarchy worth trusting.

win5Baytown AnubisML 5/2

Baytown Anubis draws our top rating at 87.81, the highest mark in the field by a meaningful margin, and trainer Paul McEntee sends him out at a reasonable 5/2 morning line. The speed figure of 53 ties with a few others, but the composite TrackWiz score separates him from the pack. Jockey Israel O. Rodriguez gets the call, a solid pairing in a race where the morning line already acknowledges him as a contender. In a maiden field where class differences are hard to read, leaning on the top-rated horse makes sense.

place4TinseltownML 3/1

Tinseltown lands at 3/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 78.45 — second-best in the field — and trainer Adam Rice puts him in a favorable spot. The average speed figure of 52 is just a tick off the top group, but that rating gap over the rest of the field beyond Baytown Anubis is enough to like him for a piece. He's the logical main alternative if the favorite runs into any trouble.

show3JobuML 7/2

Jobu checks in at 74.08 on the TrackWiz scale and draws the 7/2 morning line, suggesting the market also respects his chances. With Edwin Gonzalez up and trainer Timothy E. Hamm saddling, this is a stable connection worth watching. He rounds out the top three in our ratings and fits naturally as the third wheel in exactas and trifectas.

Race 2

7:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The Sinner Is You stands out as a class-and-form standout in this 6-furlong dirt claimer, but the morning line favorite Snowname and Truth and Honesty could make the pace scenario interesting.

win6The Sinner Is YouML 9/2

The Sinner Is You is the clear top selection here, posting a 28% career win rate — double the field average — alongside a TrackWiz rating of 84.9 that sits well clear of the competition. That win percentage is the kind of number that demands respect in a claiming context, and trainer Murray L. Rojas puts up his own daughter Martina in the irons, a family barn connection that's often a sign the horse is live. The average speed figure of 56 matches the best in the field. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's real value here given the profile.

place3Truth and HonestyML 3/1

Truth and Honesty posts a 56.76 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate while sharing that top speed figure of 56 with a handful of rivals. Trainer J. Michael Rogers also has Extra Medium in the field, but this is the barn's preferred runner based on the odds and rating. At 3/1, he's a logical place contender if The Sinner Is You controls the pace scenario.

show5BartuliaML 5/2

Bartulia at 5/2 is the morning-line second choice, but the 49.66 TrackWiz rating and 13% win rate make her more of a place-show type than a win threat. Trainer Moises Valdez keeps her competitive, and the 53 speed figure is a touch off the top group — which is exactly why she slots naturally into the show position on your tickets.

Race 3

8:24 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claimer at 6 furlongs where the morning-line favorite also owns the best TrackWiz rating — but Fleur Delacour and Calvary Kat make this more than a one-horse race.

win3A Case of YouML 9/5

A Case of You is a tough horse to bet against here — 38% career win rate, the highest in the field, combined with the top TrackWiz rating of 88.83 in what is an allowance-level spot. Trainer Scooter Davis has her at a short 9/5 morning line, and Rosario Montanez takes the mount. The speed figure of 55 is just off the field's best, but the consistency implied by a 38% win rate is the real story. This is as confident as it gets in a five-horse field.

place1Fleur DelacourML 7/2

Fleur Delacour might be the most interesting overlay in the race at 7/2 — her 80.80 TrackWiz rating is second-best and she's putting up the top speed figure in the field at 56. The 11% career win rate looks modest, but the class here is allowance optional claiming and trainer J. Michael Rogers is well-represented today. She profiles as a late-running type who could easily beat all but the favorite.

show2Calvary KatML 4/1

Calvary Kat at 4/1 brings a 23% career win rate and a solid 72.29 TrackWiz rating, giving her legitimate credentials at this level. Antonio A. Gallardo climbs aboard for trainer Murray L. Rojas, and the 53 speed figure is workable around a 6-furlong dirt sprint. She rounds out the exacta and trifecta combinations nicely as the third-best in our model.

Our three free races today cover all the dirt-sprint and route angles casual players love. Baytown Anubis opens the card in a maiden claimer going a flat mile, posting the highest TrackWiz rating of the free trio at 87.81 — a number that commands respect in maiden company at this level. In Race 2, The Sinner Is You comes in at 9/2 on the morning line in a six-furlong claimer, and our analysis points to a pace scenario that could set things up nicely for a stalker with back-end kick. Then Race 3 brings us A Case of You, our top-rated free pick of the day at 88.83, stepping into allowance optional claiming territory as the 9/5 morning-line choice — the kind of class and figure combination that earns our strongest confidence rating of the early card.

The dirt surface at Presque Isle has historically rewarded horses that can settle in mid-pack and unleash a sustained rally through the stretch, and that theme threads through all three of our free selections today. Keep an eye on early pace dynamics — if the speed burns itself out up front, closers like these should have every opportunity to pounce.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

8:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Rock Tune sets up as the class of this claiming mile, but the pace scenario could get interesting with Cocktail Kisses and Baytown Storm both carrying legitimate early speed profiles.

win6Rock TuneML 2/1

Rock Tune owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 and brings the best average speed figure of 55 — a meaningful edge in a mile-distance claimer where sustained pace matters. Trainer J. Michael Rogers is having a strong night on the card, and Martina Rojas is in the irons. The 2/1 morning line makes this the most likely winner on paper, and the model strongly agrees. At a distance where pace pressure can expose horses, Rock Tune's figure edge should be the difference.

place4Baytown StormML 3/1

Baytown Storm has a 75.59 TrackWiz rating and trainer Paul McEntee sends him out with Israel O. Rodriguez aboard at 3/1. He's a McEntee-Rodriguez combo that has appeared multiple times today, and Baytown Storm's rating of 75.59 makes him the clear second choice in our model. The 51 speed figure isn't flashy, but it fits the mile distance, and a 4% career win rate actually makes sense in a horse that's been running in tough spots.

show1Cocktail KissesML 5/2

Cocktail Kisses sits at 5/2 morning line with a 71.54 TrackWiz rating and the best average speed figure among the non-Rock Tune contenders at 54. Trainer S. Matthew Kintz and jockey Gaddiel A. Martinez give her an experienced team for the mile on dirt. She's the right profile for a show ticket in this spot — likely to factor without necessarily winning outright.

Race 5

9:18 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden special weight mile where the top two in our ratings are separated from the rest of the field — but in maiden company, those gaps can close fast when horses hit their stride.

win4Alluring BeautyML 2/1

Alluring Beauty tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54, matching the top mark we've seen all card, with a 2/1 morning line that acknowledges her standing. Trainer Riley Mott is a name that carries weight — a patient conditioner who typically has horses ready when they show up. Edwin Gonzalez takes the mount, and the 54 average speed figure is comfortably ahead of most in this field. In maiden special weight competition, siding with the trainer-figure-rating trifecta is the right approach.

place2Nuts and BoltsML 4/1

Nuts and Bolts posts a TrackWiz rating of 82.48 — second only to Alluring Beauty — and trainer Linda Rice has a strong reputation for developing young horses. Scott Spieth is up at 4/1 on the morning line, which represents solid value given the rating gap between this pair and the rest of the field. The 53 speed figure is a tick off the top, but this is a horse who figures to be running at the end of the mile.

show3More Than HopeML 5/2

More Than Hope draws the 5/2 morning line — third choice in the wagering — but her TrackWiz rating of 57.50 is a significant drop below the top two. What she does bring is the best average speed figure in the field at 55, which could matter on a track where early pace can be influential. Trainer William E. Morey keeps her competitive, and at 5/2, the market is giving her more credit than our model does — so she makes sense as a hedge in trifectas.

Race 6

9:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Thalberg looks like the clear standout in this 6-furlong dirt claimer, but Boudin and Saybrook both bring solid win percentages that could keep the exacta from being a walkover.

win1ThalbergML 2/1

Thalberg has a commanding 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in the field — and a 26% career win rate that puts him among the more reliable horses on the card today. Israel O. Rodriguez is aboard for trainer Brandon L. Kulp, and the 56 average speed figure is tied for the field's best. At 2/1 morning line, he's respected but not outright prohibitive — the kind of favorite you still feel good about playing.

place6BoudinML 9/2

Boudin is an intriguing place option at 9/2 — his 27% career win rate is actually the highest in the field, edging out Thalberg, and the 68.42 TrackWiz rating is a respectable second-best. Trainer Moises Valdez, who also saddles Saybrook, clearly has a hand in shaping the pace here, and Rosario Montanez takes the mount. The 54 speed figure fits for a 6-furlong sprint, and a 27% win rate suggests this horse is capable of surprising.

show2SaybrookML 7/2

Saybrook at 7/2 brings a 61.85 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win rate, with trainer Moises Valdez running two horses in the same race — which means stable strategy could influence how the pace unfolds. Martina Rojas rides, and the 55 speed figure is second-best in the field. She's a logical piece in exacta and trifecta combinations backing the top two.

Race 7

10:12 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open starter optional claiming sprint where our top-rated horse is going off at 6/1 — meaning there's genuine value if the model is right about Awesome Empress.

win5Awesome EmpressML 6/1

Awesome Empress has a 82.71 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in the race — yet she's listed at 6/1 on the morning line, which is a disconnect worth exploiting. Trainer John Guciardo has her at 19% career wins, a solid number for this level, and Huber Villa-Gomez takes the call. The 54 average speed figure is in line with the competitive range here, and in a starter optional claiming sprint, pace shape can shuffle the deck. Our model says she's the best horse; the odds say she's not — that's the value angle.

place4Back On TrackML 7/2

Back On Track brings a field-best 22% career win rate and a solid 70.54 TrackWiz rating at 7/2. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva sends him out with Luis Negron up, and the 55 speed figure is the best among the non-Awesome Empress contenders. He's the kind of consistent horse who finds a way to hit the board, which is exactly what you need from a place selection.

show2These ApplesML 10/1

These Apples at 10/1 is a legitimate longshot angle here — the 69.46 TrackWiz rating is virtually identical to Back On Track's, yet the morning line price is nearly triple. Antonio A. Gallardo rides for trainer Darien Rodriguez, and the 55 speed figure matches the best in the field. At double-digit odds, slotting These Apples into trifecta and superfecta tickets is an easy call given the rating support.

Race 8

10:39 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The nightcap is an allowance mile-and-70-yards where the morning-line favorite and the model's top pick don't match — creating an intriguing spot for a value play on A Million Dreams.

win2A Million DreamsML 5/2

A Million Dreams tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 while sitting at a generous 5/2 on the morning line — a horse our model likes more than the market does, which is exactly the kind of spot we're always hunting. Israel O. Rodriguez has the mount for trainer Kevin Rice, and the 53 average speed figure is workable over a route of ground. The 9% career win rate is modest, but TrackWiz ratings account for more than just raw wins, and this horse's profile clearly stands out against this allowance field.

place4Jes See MeML 8/1

Jes See Me is a fascinating place option at 8/1 — a 44% career win rate is remarkable and by far the best in this field, suggesting a horse that consistently performs at a high level. Trainer Darien Rodriguez has him running with Edwin Gonzalez up, and the 72.71 TrackWiz rating is a clear second in the field. The 8/1 morning line feels like a generous price for a horse who wins nearly half the time he runs.

show6RevolutionnaireML 2/1

Revolutionnaire draws the 2/1 morning-line favoritism, but with a 55.22 TrackWiz rating — well below both A Million Dreams and Jes See Me — he may be more of a market creation than a model standout. The 55 average speed figure is the best in the field, which could make him dangerous in a pace-dependent spot on the front end. Trainer Juan Arriagada and Antonio A. Gallardo form a capable connection, and he makes sense as a show ticket anchor given his market standing.

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Bottom line: Presque Isle is serving up a clean, well-structured card on a beautiful afternoon, and our TrackWiz analysis points to A Case of You as the strongest free play of the day heading into Race 3. For the full rundown — including pace projections, exotic structures, and our best bets in Races 4 through 8 — subscriber access is the move. Good luck out there, play smart, and we'll see you in the winner's circle.

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