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Prairie Meadows Picks & Predictions — August 21, 2026

August 21, 202612 racesAll Prairie Meadows picks

Results are in — see the official Prairie Meadows chart and payouts (our top pick won 1 of 12)→

It's a beautiful Friday at Prairie Meadows — clear skies, 85°F, and the kind of firm, fast dirt that rewards pure speed. Twelve races are on the board today, mixing Quarter Horse sprints early and thoroughbred routes later, giving bettors plenty of angles to work from morning line to final call.

The card opens with a trio of short-distance Quarter Horse dashes — 250 to 330 yards — before transitioning into a full slate of six-furlong thoroughbred battles that run deep into the afternoon. It's a card with real range, and our TrackWiz ratings turned up some intriguing mismatches between the morning line and what the numbers are actually saying.

One name worth circling early: Surely Not Me in Race 3, posting a TrackWiz rating of 89.71 as the 6/5 morning line favorite in a 250-yard maiden. Short, fast, and dangerous. We'll get to the free races below — and if you want the full 12-race breakdown, subscribers have everything waiting for them.

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Race 1

10:00 PM EDT

Allowance · 330 yd · Dirt

A six-horse quarter-horse allowance sprint at 330 yards where the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top two separated from the rest of the field — but the morning line and the ratings don't fully align, setting up an interesting betting puzzle.

win6ShesafavoritecowgirlML 3/1

Shesafavoritecowgirl draws our top rating in this field at 87.08, well clear of everything except the pace setup contender below her. Trainer Tony Dean Jones sends her out with jockey Miguel Josue Ramirez in what looks like a confident connections play. At 3/1 on the morning line, she offers genuine value relative to her rating advantage — and in a 330-yard dash where fractions of a second decide everything, that edge matters.

place3I Be Moonin YouML 7/2

I Be Moonin You carries the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 77.28 and ships in at 7/2 — a fair price for a horse our analysis grades this highly. Trainer Manuel Mojica Campos has a runner in this race that can clearly mix it up in the short format, and with Giovany Estrada up, the connections are live. If the favorite misses a step at the gate, this one is right there.

show5Tetos Tres BoogieML 5/2

Tetos Tres Boogie rounds out the Mojica Campos barn's double-entry in this race with a solid 59.36 rating and a 5/2 morning line that shows the market respects her despite a modest 12% career win rate. In a wide-open quarter-horse sprint where gate luck plays a huge role, having a horse from this barn in your exotics gives you some trainer-barn edge. She's worth using underneath in trifecta tickets.

Race 2

10:25 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

A maiden sprint at 300 yards with an all-first-timer field — no career wins to lean on for anyone — making the TrackWiz ratings and connections the primary handicapping tools in what figures to be a wide-open opener.

win7SwivelsML 2/1

Swivels tops this maiden field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in the race by a comfortable margin — and gets the call from Alfredo Triana, Jr., one of the more active riders on this card. Trainer Manuel Mojica Campos runs a competitive barn and clearly sends Swivels in with strong expectations at 2/1 on the morning line. In a maiden sprint where talent separation can be hard to identify, a rating gap this large is not something to ignore.

place3Tiny TemptressML EVN

Tiny Temptress is the morning-line favorite at even money and carries the second-best TrackWiz rating at 77.21 — there's a real horse here. Trainer Stacy Charette-Hill puts Cristian R. Esqueda up, a jockey who pilots several horses on tonight's card, suggesting he's in good form. If Swivels is the top choice, Tiny Temptress makes the most logical place backup, and at even money she'll likely be underlaid to win but solid underneath.

show4Zz RelentlessML 5/1

Zz Relentless sits third in our ratings at 69.61 and goes postward at 5/1 — that's a gap in morning-line price versus rating standing that makes her appealing for exotic players. Miguel Josue Ramirez handles the mount for trainer Edward Ross Hardy. In a wide-open maiden where anything can happen in the first few strides, having a 69-rated horse at 5/1 in your show position is smart ticket construction.

Race 3

10:50 PM EDT

Maiden · 250 yd · Dirt

A nine-horse maiden sprint at 250 yards that features a heavy morning-line favorite carrying the field's top rating by a wide margin — this one sets up as a likely single for serious bettors, with the race for the minor spots wide open.

win7Surely Not MeML 6/5

Surely Not Me is the standout in this field, posting an 89.71 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark of any horse in the first three races tonight — and going off as the 6/5 morning-line favorite. Trainer Jason L. Olmstead puts his own son Ryder Olmstead in the irons, a family-stable combo that often signals strong barn confidence. In a 250-yard dash, there's almost no room for error, and a horse rated this far above the field deserves heavy respect.

place1Montee LoveML 4/1

Montee Love checks in at a 55.0 rating and the 4/1 morning line, making her the most logical place contender in a field where the ratings fall off sharply after the top choice. Trainer Fernando Ivan Manriquez saddles her alongside stablemate Cowgirls Ride Better, which can sometimes complicate pace dynamics — but Cristian R. Esqueda on Montee Love suggests connections believe in this one over the barn's second entry. She's a logical place play at a price.

show3Th BulletML 6/1

Th Bullet rates at 51.67 and draws a 6/1 morning line, giving him solid value for show-ticket purposes in a race where most of the field rates well below 50. Trainer Manuel Mojica Campos runs a deep stable tonight across multiple races, and Giovany Estrada's mount here could benefit from any chaos at the break in a nine-horse maiden sprint. Include him in trifecta coverage underneath the top two.

Today's three free races cover the opening Quarter Horse sprints, and there's a common thread worth noting: on a dry, hard-packed surface like this, early speed is virtually everything at these distances. There's no room to make up ground in 220 to 330 yards — gates break, and it's over in a blink. Our analysis favors horses with clean gate records and sharp recent works in all three of these openers.

Shesafavoritecowgirl (Race 1, 87.08 rating) and Swivels (Race 2, 88.54) both come in with ratings that suggest they're underlays at their respective morning lines if they break cleanly. The star of the free trio, though, is Surely Not Me in Race 3 — that 89.71 TrackWiz rating leads the entire card through the first three races and makes the 6/5 price look like fair value rather than a fade.

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Race 4

11:15 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 220 yd · Dirt

A ten-horse maiden claiming sprint at 220 yards — the shortest distance on the card — where two horses are rated well clear of the rest and figure to dominate the exotics, leaving the minor-place battle wide open.

win10Lil Racy GirlML 7/5

Lil Racy Girl tops the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 89.42 and draws the 7/5 morning-line tab as the clear public choice. Trainer Charlton Hunt sends her out with Giovany Estrada up — a capable rider who also handles the top pick in Race 2, suggesting he's in hot form tonight. At 220 yards — less than a full furlong — it's almost all gate and early punch, and a horse rated this highly deserves to be on top of your tickets.

place4Bayou Eagle PowerML 5/2

Bayou Eagle Power is the logical second choice here, rating at 83.84 and going off at 5/2 on the morning line. Trainer Fernando Ivan Manriquez also runs Red White N Lucky in this same race, but Cristian R. Esqueda's mount on Bayou Eagle Power suggests the barn's primary intention runs through this one. A 5/2 horse rated 83+ is not a throwaway — she should be in every exacta and trifecta combination.

show6Ts Thats FamousML 8/1

Ts Thats Famous rates at 49.35 — far below the top two — but earns the show nod at 8/1 on the morning line, which is solid value in a field where most runners rate in the 20s. Trainer Tony Dean Jones sends her out with Mauro Jesus Rodriguez up, and in a ten-horse maiden at 220 yards where chaos at the break is always possible, a 49-rated horse at that price has genuine upside for show and third-leg exotic plays.

Race 5

11:41 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A five-horse claiming sprint at 6 furlongs where the morning-line favorite carries the field's top rating and a career win percentage that stands out — but a credible second choice makes the exacta worth targeting.

win1MathurineML 6/5

Mathurine is the clear top choice here, leading the field with an 89.71 TrackWiz rating, a 17% career win percentage, and an average speed figure of 55 — the best in this five-horse field. Trainer Bonnie Birzer puts her husband Alex Birzer up, a tight family-barn combination that typically signals strong form and confidence from the connections. Going off at 6/5, she's not a value bomb, but the numbers say she's legitimately the best horse in here.

place4Severe ClearML 7/2

Severe Clear rates at 76.6 with a 23% career win percentage and an average speed figure of 54 — just a tick below Mathurine on the speed side but a credible closer profile at 7/2. Trainer Kelli Martinez puts Walter De La Cruz up, and this one looks like a live place threat if the favorite gets caught in any pace pressure up front. The morning line is generous enough that she pays to include in exactas.

show3DreaminonthenileML 2/1

Dreaminonthenile carries the best career win percentage in the field at 25% and rates 67.4 with an average speed of 54 — virtually identical to the second choice on the speed side. Trainer Jon G. Arnett sends her out with Alfredo Triana, Jr., who is having a busy night across the card. In a five-horse field, show tickets are less compelling, but Dreaminonthenile has the credentials to mix it up for third if the pace scenario sets up in her favor.

Race 6

12:07 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An eight-horse claiming field at 6 furlongs where a legitimate standout exists on the ratings — but a pair of mid-priced closers with solid career win percentages make this an excellent exacta and trifecta race.

win6Mighty KoaML 2/1

Mighty Koa leads all runners in this field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and checks in at 2/1 on the morning line — fair odds for a horse who grades this far above the competition. Trainer F. Dewaine Loy sends him out with Orlando Mojica in the irons, and with an average speed of 54 matching the cluster at the top of this field, the edge comes from the overall rating gap. He's the play.

place8Big FurnML 5/1

Big Furn rates 66.24 with a 10% career win percentage and goes off at 5/1 — giving him the most attractive morning-line price among the upper tier of this field. Walter De La Cruz handles the mount for trainer Brandi Jo Fett, and with an average speed figure of 54 matching the top contenders, this one is a live place threat who could pay nicely in the exacta slot. The price is right for a horse this solidly rated.

show4MeekerML 9/2

Meeker rates at 63.68 and draws a 9/2 morning line for trainer David D. McShane with Ken S. Tohill up. His 8% career win percentage is modest, but his rating puts him firmly in the second tier of this field, and in an eight-horse field at a claiming level, that's enough to merit a show ticket. He's also a smart inclusion in trifecta construction behind the top two.

Race 7

12:33 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A fascinating allowance optional claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs where three horses carry 100% career win percentages but our top-rated pick is a double-digit morning line — making this one of the most interesting value plays of the night.

win1A V From the LogoML 10/1

A V From the Logo is our top-rated horse in this field at 71.88 and goes off at a generous 10/1 — a significant disconnect between the TrackWiz rating and the morning-line price. Trainer David D. McShane puts Alfredo Triana, Jr. up, and with a 33% career win percentage and an average speed of 54, this one has legitimate back figures that the public may be underestimating. If you're looking for a value single or a key in your exotics tonight, this is the spot.

place4NewlyML 7/5

Newly is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 and carries a 100% career win percentage with an average speed of 56 — the highest speed figure in the field. Trainer Tyrone Gleason has Ken S. Tohill up, and the undefeated record commands respect. However, the question with a horse that hasn't lost is always whether they've been tested against this class — our rating of 59.33 suggests there's room for the right challenger to take them down.

show2Potential SamML 3/1

Potential Sam also carries a 100% career win percentage with a 56 average speed and goes off at 3/1 for trainer Kevin Eikleberry with Glenn W. Corbett up. The Eikleberry barn also runs Sofia's Love and Astro Nine in this same race, giving the trainer three bites at the apple — but Potential Sam is the barn's fastest horse on paper and the most logical show inclusion. In a race where the favorite and our win pick could both fire, this one is a solid underneath play.

Race 8

12:59 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An eight-horse claiming sprint at 6 furlongs where the ratings clearly separate the field into tiers — the top two choices are well above the pack — and a pace scenario where front-runners may battle early, setting up a potential closer.

win8Ole Mikey BagelsML 5/2

Ole Mikey Bagels tops the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 87.81 and draws a 5/2 morning line — solid value for the horse our analysis grades highest. Trainer Tanner Tracy puts Elvin Gonzalez up, and with a 12% career win percentage and a 54 average speed that clusters him with the mid-field, the rating edge is the primary differentiator. He's worth anchoring your win tickets around tonight.

place1Skipped a BeatML 3/1

Skipped a Beat rates 75.36 — second-best in the field — and checks in at 3/1 on the morning line with Alfredo Triana, Jr. aboard for trainer Travis Swan Murphy. Crucially, this one posts a 55 average speed figure, the best of any horse in this race, suggesting an ability to put up a number when the conditions are right. A 10% career win percentage understates the talent level here — he's a must-use in exactas.

show5Madethedean'slistML 5/1

Madethedean'slist rates 66.02 with a 5/1 morning line and draws trainer Lynn Chleborad with Israel Hernandez up. The 2% career win percentage is a red flag, but the TrackWiz rating places this horse solidly in the third tier of a field where the bottom falls off sharply — and in claiming races, low win percentages sometimes reflect bad luck more than bad horses. Worth using underneath in trifectas at a fair price.

Race 9

1:25 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A ten-horse maiden special weight sprint at 5½ furlongs where the ratings are bunched more tightly than usual, no career wins are in play, and the pace scenario over a longer distance than the quarter-horse sprints could scramble the early order.

win7Miss OliveML 9/5

Miss Olive leads the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 58.67 and goes off as the 9/5 morning-line choice for trainer Kelly R. Von Hemel with Glenn W. Corbett up. She posts an average speed of 54 — the best in the field among horses with speed figures — and in a maiden special weight where class and preparation matter, the Von Hemel barn is a respected operation. She's the logical top of the ticket even if the margin over the field is modest.

place10Queen's StandardML 4/1

Queen's Standard rates at 55.0 and draws a 4/1 morning line for trainer Kelly R. Von Hemel — making this a same-barn double-entry situation where connections are clearly feeling confident about their chances tonight. Walter De La Cruz gets the call, and with no posted average speed figure, there's some uncertainty about her preparation — but the rating and the barn's presence in the race are compelling reasons to use her underneath.

show5Just Good CentsML 5/1

Just Good Cents rates 53.33 with a 5/1 morning line and gets Jarred Journet for trainer Henry Guillory, Jr. — a fresh-faced combination without a dominant record to lean on, but the rating places this horse squarely in the third tier of a tightly bunched field. At 5/1 in a ten-horse maiden, the show price should be fair, and she's worth including in trifecta coverage if the top two finishers stay close.

Race 10

1:51 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A seven-horse maiden special weight sprint at 6 furlongs where one horse is rated dramatically above the field — but a cluster of three horses is separated by only half a point in the 68-69 range, making the minor spots genuinely competitive.

win2Golden HurricaneML 3/1

Golden Hurricane is the standout in this field, posting an 87.08 TrackWiz rating that dwarfs the next-best group and going off at 3/1 on the morning line — a very fair price for a horse graded this far above the competition. Trainer Kelli Martinez sends him out with Walter De La Cruz up, and an average speed of 55 leads the field. In a 6-furlong maiden, speed figures matter more than in the sprints, and this one has the goods on paper.

place7Raaq TansaniML 6/1

Raaq Tansani sits in a tight cluster with the show pick but edges ahead at a 69.1 rating and draws a 6/1 morning line for trainer Kelli Martinez with Alberto Pusac up — notably the same barn as Golden Hurricane. When a trainer runs two horses in the same race, they often have a clear preference, but Raaq Tansani's rating makes her a legitimate secondary threat. At 6/1, she's a strong exacta play underneath the top choice.

show6None But the BraveML 5/2

None But the Brave rates 68.98 — virtually identical to Raaq Tansani — but draws a tighter 5/2 morning line for trainer Kelly R. Von Hemel with Glenn W. Corbett up. The speed figure of 53 trails the top two contenders, but in a maiden where pace development and trip luck play a role, this one could easily finish third. The morning line may underlay her slightly, but she's a necessary trifecta inclusion.

Race 11

2:17 AM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-horse starter allowance at 6 furlongs where the field is packed with horses showing 29-33% career win percentages — legitimate veterans — but one horse's TrackWiz rating and average speed figure set her clearly apart from the rest.

win6Virtue's RewardML 4/1

Virtue's Reward tops this field at an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and draws a 4/1 morning line — the best value of any top-rated horse on tonight's card given the quality of the opposition. Trainer Logan Ashford puts Alfredo Triana, Jr. up, and a 33% career win percentage combined with a 56 average speed figure — tied for the field's best — makes a compelling case that this is the class of the field. Bet her with confidence at 4/1.

place3RedneckerthanyouML 6/1

Redneckerthanyou rates 74.32 and draws a 6/1 morning line — that's excellent value for the second-best horse in our ratings. Trainer Kelli Martinez sends Walter De La Cruz out on a horse with a 30% career win percentage and a 55 average speed, and in a starter allowance where experience matters, those credentials are real. The price suggests the market may be sleeping on this one — a strong place and exacta play.

show4Run for GoldML 5/2

Run for Gold rates 60.35 with a 5/2 morning line for trainer Lynn Chleborad with Israel Hernandez up. The 18% career win percentage is the lowest among the main contenders in this field, but a 56 average speed figure — matching the field's best — tells a different story about raw ability. She may be better than her win record suggests, and at 5/2, she's a logical show ticket and trifecta inclusion.

Race 12

2:43 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The finale is a ten-horse claiming sprint at 6 furlongs to close out the card — a wide-open field in the rating middle with one clear standout at the top, and a lively supporting cast that makes the exotics very playable.

win7Dixie SurpriseML 5/2

Dixie Surprise leads the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 87.81 and draws a 5/2 morning line — a fair price for the top-rated horse in the race. Trainer Riley Parsons puts Ken S. Tohill up, and while the 5% career win percentage is notably low, the TrackWiz rating suggests a level of ability that hasn't fully translated into victories yet — the kind of profile that can break through in a claiming field at the right moment. Trust the rating here.

place4Stella BellaML 9/2

Stella Bella rates 69.9 with a 9/2 morning line and draws Ronnie Huckaby for trainer Tanner Tracy — a fresh combination without a career win percentage to cite, but with an average speed of 54 that matches most of the competitive tier in this field. When a horse with no win percentage listed appears in a claiming race, it sometimes signals a first-time starter or a lightly raced animal — and those can be live in the right situation. She's worth using in exactas at that price.

show9Sugah DownML 7/2

Sugah Down rates 54.85 and draws a 7/2 morning line for trainer Tanner Tracy with Elvin Gonzalez up — notably the same barn as Stella Bella, giving Tanner Tracy two live shots in the finale. A 12% career win percentage and a 54 average speed make Sugah Down a legitimate contender for third in this field, and the morning-line price is fair. She's the logical third leg of your trifecta ticket to close out the card.

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Bottom line: today's Prairie Meadows card has real meat on the bone. The free picks — led by Surely Not Me — give casual bettors a strong starting point, while the premium races offer legitimate value opportunities, including a double-digit longshot worth a serious look. Get the full card breakdown and don't leave money on the table — subscriber analysis is live now at /pricing.

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