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Penn National Picks & Predictions — November 13, 2026

November 13, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

Best bets at Penn National today

Race 11Black FlyML 9/55:45 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 5 races are for members.

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Last 30 days at Penn National: our top pick won 12 of 47 races (26%) and finished in the money in 28.

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Black Fly is the play to start your day — our top free pick in Race 1, a one-mile claiming route on dirt, where a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 and a 39.93% simulated win probability make this 9/5 morning-line shot look like genuine value, not just chalk.

It's a chilly Friday at Penn National — 39°F under cloudy skies, the kind of late-autumn afternoon that tends to keep the grandstand sparse but keeps the racing honest. Seven races on the dirt today, stretching from sprints down to 5½ furlongs all the way out to a mile and 70 yards. The card mixes claiming, allowance, and maiden company, so there's something for every type of bettor to dig into.

What makes today interesting is the volume of competitive claiming races in the middle of the card and a legitimately intriguing allowance closer in Race 7. Pace scenarios are still developing across the full field, but our simulations have already flagged some standout angles — including a couple of longshot prices worth building tickets around.

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Race 1

5:45 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A short field of five goes a mile and 70 yards in this dirt claimer, and the TrackWiz ratings are heavily top-loaded — the top-rated horse holds an 88.83 to start a field where the next two rated horses sit in the mid-60s, suggesting a clear class edge if the favorite handles the distance.

win1Black FlyML 9/5

Black Fly tops this field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and a simulation win percentage of nearly 40%, which is well ahead of any rival in the field. The pace angle is compelling — Black Fly clocked the second-fastest recent race speed at 13.07 sec/furlong and has cashed in 5 of the last 6 races, plus owns a strong medium-distance record of 1 win and 7 placings in 8 tries at that trip. The one flag to watch: this horse has only 14 days of rest and historically performs better with 30 or more days between starts. At 9/5 morning line, the price is fair for the top-rated horse, but that rest concern is worth keeping in mind.

place5Red BettyML 3/1

Red Betty earns the place spot by posting the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.76 sec/furlong, which is a meaningful edge in a small group. The rating sits at 65.33 and ranks second overall, and trainer George Albright carries a B grade. The concern is the medium-distance record — just 1 placing in 8 tries at that trip — so the place slot feels like the right comfort level rather than the win spot.

show3Global ConsortML 5/2

Global Consort is worth including in the exotics as the show pick, having won at this exact surface and distance last time out — that's a repeater angle that shouldn't be dismissed. The rating of 65.07 ranks third and recent race speed of 13.23 sec/furlong is third-best in the field, keeping this horse in contention. The concern is a thin medium-distance in-the-money record of just 3 placings in 13 tries, so the show slot respects both the upside and the risk.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Black Fly40%
3Global Consort21%
5Red Betty19%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

The free spotlight falls squarely on Black Fly in Race 1. This horse has placed in 5 of the last 6 starts — a consistency angle that holds up especially well in cold-weather dirt routes, where the field tends to thin out and class holds more sway. At 9/5, you're not getting a steal, but our TrackWiz analysis ranks Black Fly second in recent race speed at 13.07 seconds per furlong for the distance — right in the mix to control or track the pace.

With the track surface firm and cold today, horses with proven recent form on dirt should be favored over those whose lines lean on surface versatility. Black Fly fits that profile cleanly for a free-race play.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

6:14 PM EST

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Six runners line up for a 6-furlong starter optional claimer on dirt, and the top two TrackWiz ratings — Miami Kaz at 87.08 and Stanford Dropout at 80.23 — are separated by nearly seven points from the rest of the field, setting up what could be a two-horse affair at the top.

win6Miami KazML 3/1

Miami Kaz tops the field on the TrackWiz scale at 87.08 and brings an 18% career win rate to the table with 54% in-the-money across a career. The pace credentials back up the rating — Miami Kaz clocked the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.35 sec/furlong and has placed in 3 consecutive outings, showing current form. Trainer Paulina Sinnefia holds an A grade and the horse has cashed in 5 of 8 lifetime starts on dirt. At 3/1 morning line with 25% of our 10,000 simulations going the horse's way, there's a slight edge over the fair-value line.

place5Stanford DropoutML 2/1

Stanford Dropout is a logical key underneath with the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.17 sec/furlong and a 25% career win rate that stands out in this group. The dirt record is solid — 2 wins and 6 placings in 8 starts — and the horse has been in the money in 3 of the last 5. The simulation hit rate of nearly 27% is actually higher than Miami Kaz, so if you're comfortable with the 2/1 price, there's a case for flipping the top two in exotics.

show3Penn FranklinML 4/1

Penn Franklin rounds out the ticket with a 70.05 TrackWiz rating, the third-best recent race speed at 12.39 sec/furlong, and a jockey — David Cora — who posted a 17% win rate and 60% in-the-money over the past year. The trainer Bruce Kravets holds a B+ grade and Penn Franklin owns a 55% in-the-money rate across a career with 2 wins in 20 dirt starts. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's some value for exacta and trifecta coverage.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Stanford Dropout27%
6Miami Kaz25%
3Penn Franklin16%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

6:43 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An eight-horse maiden special weight at 5½ furlongs on dirt is wide open at the top — the TrackWiz ratings show no dominant standout, with five horses clustered in the 45-to-76 range and several first-time or limited starters complicating the form.

win2Epic BlockageML 7/2

Epic Blockage is the top-rated horse in this field at 75.77 and the pick to win, powered largely by a jockey angle that's hard to ignore — Angel R. Rodriguez has posted a 28% win rate and an eye-popping 74% in-the-money figure over the past year, and also appears on the TrackWiz Top 50 Jockeys list. The workout line is encouraging too: Epic Blockage ranked second in the field over the last month at 12.20 sec/furlong. The horse has placed in 33% of career starts and figures to be a major player if the maiden form translates to race day.

place4Gypsy DreamML 5/2

Gypsy Dream shows up as the second-best rated horse at 57.50, with trainer Cathal Lynch holding an A grade — that's a strong connections angle in a maiden field where trainer skill matters. The recent race speed ranked third in the field at 12.02 sec/furlong, and jockey Jose Vargas has a 18% win rate and 54% in-the-money over the past year. The one concern is a last-out placing miss, but the overall profile points to a horse that should be involved.

show5Supreme SendoffML 4/1

Supreme Sendoff is an interesting show inclusion — this horse has posted the fastest recent race speed in the entire field at 11.87 sec/furlong, which is a legitimate speed figure advantage. A 100% in-the-money rate (small sample, but still) and a placing in the most recent start add to the case. The jockey grade is a C, which is the downside, but the speed number keeps this horse in the exotic mix for the show position.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Epic Blockage22%
4Gypsy Dream17%
5Supreme Sendoff15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

7:12 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Six maiden claimers go six furlongs on dirt, and this race has a clear top — Crazy Miles sits at an 88.54 TrackWiz rating with a 83% in-the-money rate, well clear of the field, making this look like a vulnerable favorite situation only if recent form fades.

win2Crazy MilesML 2/1

Crazy Miles is the standout here with the top TrackWiz rating at 88.54, the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.49 sec/furlong, and a remarkable 83% in-the-money rate across a career. The dirt record is exceptional — 5 placings in 6 starts on that surface — and the horse has cashed in 5 of the last 6 outings, showing consistent current form. Our simulations gave Crazy Miles a 34% win share across 10,000 runs, nearly 13 points ahead of the next horse, and both jockey Jatniel Ramos (A- grade) and trainer Andrew Simoff (A- grade) add further confidence to the top pick.

place3King of SalsaML 3/1

King of Salsa ranks second on TrackWiz at 75.12 and has placed in the last 2 consecutive races, showing a form uptick at the right time. The recent race speed of 12.59 sec/furlong is second-fastest in the field, suggesting this horse can keep up early in a sprint. The 30% in-the-money career rate is modest, but back-to-back placings heading into today is the kind of recency that matters in maiden company.

show4BatantML 5/1

Batant comes in third on the TrackWiz scale at 66.45 with a third-fastest recent race speed of 12.86 sec/furlong and 4 placings in the last 6 races — that's consistent enough to warrant show coverage. The concern is a 0-for-4 record at sprint distances, which is a real flag in a 6-furlong race. That said, trainer George Albright holds a B grade and jockey Leonardo Corujo grades A-, so the connections are solid enough to keep this horse in exotics.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Crazy Miles34%
3King of Salsa21%
4Batant14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

7:41 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Five horses face off in a 6-furlong dirt claimer with a sharp rating gap — Ridley Park sits at 87.08 at the top while the next two are 80.76 and 72.49, creating a defined hierarchy, though age questions linger for multiple horses in this field.

win4Ridley ParkML 3/1

Ridley Park tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and leads the field in simulation wins, taking down nearly 30% of 10,000 runs. The dirt pedigree is strong — 4 wins and 16 placings in 28 starts on dirt — and the horse has multiple wins at today's exact surface and distance combination. Recent race speed of 12.53 sec/furlong ranks third in the field, which is respectable, and the 57% in-the-money career rate is the best among the top contenders. The 14% career win rate and no listed concerns make this the most well-rounded profile in the race.

place5Joking WayML 4/1

Joking Way has the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.31 sec/furlong and a solid 80.76 TrackWiz rating that ranks second overall. Trainer Paulina Sinnefia — also training the morning-line favorite — holds an A grade, and jockey David Cora has a 17% win rate and 60% in-the-money figure over the past year. The flags here are age (6 years old) and a short rest period of only 23 days when this horse prefers 30-plus, so place coverage feels more appropriate than gunning for the win.

show2Ira the IconML 3/1

Ira the Icon makes a solid show play thanks to a compelling jockey-trainer combo angle — the pairing of Inoel Beato and trainer Erin McClellan has posted a 19% win rate and 69% in-the-money figure over the past year. The recent race speed of 12.38 sec/furlong is second-fastest in the field and the 72.49 TrackWiz rating ranks third. The concern is a poor track record at Penn National — just 2 placings in 16 starts here — which keeps this horse in the show slot rather than higher on the ticket.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Ridley Park30%
5Joking Way24%
2Ira the Icon22%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 6

8:10 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Seven line up for a 6-furlong dirt claimer that features a genuine upset angle — the top TrackWiz rating belongs to Diamond Essence at 84.17, but that horse is coming off just 15 days of rest in a field that includes Creative Copy at 80.40 and Sacred Love at 79.17, making this one of the more competitive races on the card.

win3Diamond EssenceML 5/1

Diamond Essence earns the top rating in the field at 84.17 and leads all horses with the fastest recent race speed at 12.50 sec/furlong. The distance record is the standout angle — 3 wins and 13 placings in 20 races at 6 furlongs is elite consistency. Career in-the-money sits at 60%, the dirt overall record shows 3 wins in 25 starts, and jockey Ricardo Chiappe grades A-. The only real concern is a short 15-day rest period when this horse typically needs 30 or more, so watch the paddock and warm-up carefully before betting up.

place6Creative CopyML 2/1

Creative Copy is a strong place pick with the second-highest TrackWiz rating at 80.40 and a career win rate of 27% that leads this entire field. The 6-furlong record is outstanding — 5 wins and 11 placings in 16 starts at that trip — and 10 wins in 37 lifetime dirt starts underscores how well this horse handles the surface. The horse has placed in 2 consecutive outings heading in, showing sharp current form, and jockey Jatniel Ramos grades A-. The age concern (6 years old) is noted but hasn't slowed this horse down recently.

show1Sacred LoveML 7/2

Sacred Love checks in third on the TrackWiz ratings at 79.17 and brings a 23% career win rate — second in this field — to the table. The dirt record is clean: 3 wins in 12 starts, with a 61% in-the-money rate that is the best of the three top picks. Jockey Yabriel Ramos has a 21% win rate and 56% in-the-money figure over the past year, adding a live-rider angle. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's reasonable show value here as a hedge in exotics.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Creative Copy27%
1Sacred Love21%
3Diamond Essence20%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

8:39 PM EST

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint at 6 furlongs on dirt with a seven-horse field that has a clear top two — Suyay at 85.62 and The Beast Master at 78.25 — separated from a mid-pack cluster, but The Beast Master's perfect in-the-money record makes this feel more competitive at the top than the rating gap suggests.

win6SuyayML 4/1

Suyay holds the top TrackWiz rating at 85.62 and owns the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.86 sec/furlong — that's a double-barreled advantage in a sprint. The career record on dirt is spotless: 1 win and 4 placings in 4 starts, a 100% in-the-money rate that is tough to argue against. Trainer Ricardo Murillo grades B, jockey Inoel Beato has posted 18% wins and 62% in-the-money over the past year, and the horse won 23% of our 10,000 simulations. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here for a horse that hasn't missed the board in its dirt career.

place7The Beast MasterML 7/2

The Beast Master makes the strongest possible case for the place slot — a 100% lifetime in-the-money rate across 7 starts, all on dirt, with a career win rate of 42%. The recent race speed of 11.95 sec/furlong is second-fastest in the field, and the horse has placed in 7 consecutive outings. Jockey Leonardo Corujo grades A- and the trainer Cody Beattie holds a B. The simulation win share of nearly 22% actually runs close to Suyay, suggesting this horse could easily outrun its 7/2 morning line.

show2Walkers BeachML 6/1

Walkers Beach rounds out the ticket with a 71.46 TrackWiz rating and an 87% lifetime in-the-money rate — the second-highest in the field among horses with meaningful samples. The horse has placed in 4 consecutive starts heading in, showing that form is at its peak right now, and the dirt record of 1 win and 7 placings in 8 starts is remarkably consistent. Trainer T. Bernard Houghton grades C+, which is the concern, but at 6/1 on the morning line, Walkers Beach offers strong show value and trifecta coverage.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Suyay23%
7The Beast Master22%
3Chilling Hassle19%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Black Fly in Race 1 is the free best bet of the day — consistent, well-rated, and priced fairly enough to anchor a wager. If you want the full seven-race breakdown with pace projections, exotic tickets, and our premium longshot angles, the complete TrackWiz card is available to subscribers. Bundle up, stay sharp, and good luck out there today.

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