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Penn National Picks & Predictions — November 12, 2026

November 12, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

Best bets at Penn National today

Race 16Warrior's FinaleML 5/25:45 PM EST

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Last 30 days at Penn National: our top pick won 11 of 40 races (28%) and finished in the money in 25.

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Warrior's Finale is our free-race best bet in Race 1 — a Maiden Special Weight sprint where a jockey-trainer duo connecting at a blistering 34% win rate over the past year makes the 5/2 morning line look like a gift, especially with that same jockey posting a 28% win rate and hitting the board nearly three-quarters of the time.

Now for the scene: Penn National is dealing with rain and 51-degree temperatures this Thursday, and that wet dirt is going to matter. A soggy track at Penn can compress speed figures and reward horses that handle slop naturally — something we've factored into every pick on this card. Seven races are on the slate, all on the main track, and the conditions make reading pace scenarios trickier than usual.

What makes today's card genuinely interesting is the mix of class levels — you've got Maiden Special Weights, Allowance company, and Claiming races all on one card — plus a Starter Optional Claiming route at a mile and 70 yards in Race 4 where our sim model has the top pick at a dominant 40.92% win probability at just 8/5. That's a rare alignment of model conviction and reasonable odds. There's real meat here for both casual players and serious ticket builders.

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Race 1

5:45 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

An all-maiden field of unproven runners makes this opener a wide-open puzzle, with the top-rated horse carrying legitimate workout speed but a worrying recent race figure — expect chaos at the break and a wide-open outcome.

win6Warrior's FinaleML 5/2

Warrior's Finale tops the TrackWiz ratings at 57.5, best in the field, and the connections are as strong as it gets in this race — jockey Angel R. Rodriguez has posted a 28% win rate over the past year, and the Rodriguez/Kulp combo lands winners at a 34% clip with an 81% in-the-money rate. The best workout in the field over the last month (12.02 sec/furlong) suggests physical readiness, and our simulations backed the number, handing this one a 18.74% win share across 10,000 runs. The main caution is a sluggish recent race figure (ranked 5th at 13.60 sec/furlong) and a finish last time that didn't fire — in a maiden field this green, those ups and downs are common, but it's worth acknowledging.

place5Rarest HourML 4/1

Rarest Hour rates second in the field at 55.0 and comes in with a 100% in-the-money mark from the last race, posting the second-best recent race speed figure (12.74 sec/furlong) among this group. Jockey Wilfredo Corujo has a strong 57% in-the-money rate over the past year, and our sims gave Rarest Hour a 17.24% win probability, making this one a legitimate threat to run top-three at a morning line of 4/1.

show1An Album CoverML 9/2

An Album Cover ranked first in recent race speed at 12.24 sec/furlong — the fastest recent race time in this field — and also shows a 100% in-the-money mark last out, checking an important consistency box in a race full of maiden unknowns. At 9/2 on the morning line, this one offers solid exotics value as a show horse, and trainer Tim Girten's B- grade is respectable at this level. With the top recent race speed number, don't be surprised if this horse factors in the stretch run.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Warrior's Finale19%
5Rarest Hour17%
1An Album Cover16%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 1 is the one open to every TrackWiz reader today, and Warrior's Finale checks the boxes we lean on hardest in maiden dirt sprints: a live jockey-trainer combo that connects at a combined 34% rate, and a jockey who individually wins more than one in four starts. On a wet track where experience and connections matter more than raw speed — especially for first-time starters or lightly raced maidens — that human element is worth its weight. Our rating of 57.5 reflects the inherent uncertainty of maiden racing, but the angle is clean and the price is fair.

The rain is the x-factor that ties the whole free-race picture together. When Penn National dirt gets wet, pace dynamics shift — early speed can either wire the field or get swallowed up by closers depending on how deep the moisture goes. We're watching the track variant closely, and it's one reason we're leaning into horses with proven dirt records and sharp connections rather than raw speed alone today.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

6:14 PM EST

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Three horses separated by fewer than four rating points crowd the top of the TrackWiz leaderboard in this allowance sprint, setting up a genuine battle for the win among a trio of well-matched competitors while the bottom half of the field faces a steep uphill climb.

win2Our Golden GatorML 4/1

Our Golden Gator owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.62 and has been a model of dirt consistency — placing in 6 of 7 starts on that surface, with one win in those seven tries. The 85% in-the-money career mark is the kind of reliability that stands out, and the Rodriguez/Kulp jockey-trainer combo brings a 34% win rate and 81% in-the-money rate to the table, one of the most potent pairings at Penn National. Our simulations gave Our Golden Gator a 21.35% win probability, the highest in the field, making the 4/1 morning line feel like fair value or better.

place4RemembrallML 4/1

Remembrall is as close to a lock for the board as this field offers — a perfect 8-for-8 in-the-money record on dirt and a current streak of placing in the last 8 consecutive races. The second-best recent race speed figure in the field (12.11 sec/furlong) keeps this one in the speed conversation, and a 25% career win rate tells you this horse knows how to close out a race. At 4/1, the value is there if you need a reliable place component in an exacta or trifecta.

show7TruthorconsequenceML 4/1

Truthorconsequence brings the third-best TrackWiz rating at 81.46 and a career record showing 4 wins from 24 dirt starts, placing in 14 of those efforts. The 12.25 sec/furlong recent speed figure ranks third in the field and pairs with a 60% career in-the-money rate that speaks to consistent competitiveness. Jockey Andy Hernandez has a 20% win rate over the past year, and at 4/1 morning line this one fits nicely as an exotics anchor at the bottom of a trifecta.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Our Golden Gator21%
5Techstar21%
4Remembrall21%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

6:43 PM EST

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A tricky starter optional claiming route at a mile sees the top-rated horse go off at 8/1 — suggesting the morning-line oddsmaker isn't convinced — while a layoff concern and a wide-open pace scenario make this one of the harder races on the card to solve.

win2Keep Her HappyML 8/1

Keep Her Happy is the top-rated horse in the field at 79.79 yet goes off as the morning-line co-longshot at 8/1 — that price gap is worth noting. The jockey-trainer combo of Mena and Gorham has an 18% win rate and a 64% in-the-money rate, one of the stronger connection angles in this race, and the horse has placed in the last two starts, showing current form. Our 10,000 sims gave Keep Her Happy an 18.08% win share — essentially the same as the second-ranked horse — confirming this one is legitimately live at a price. The workout concern (ranked 5th at 12.75 sec/furlong) is mild enough not to derail this play.

place4BerlinwinML 5/1

Berlinwin posts the second-best recent race speed figure in the field (12.77 sec/furlong) and has placed in the last two races, showing current form heading into today. Trainer Jorge Diaz carries a solid B+ grade, and the horse has a strong workout (ranked 2nd over the last month at 12.25 sec/furlong) pointing to physical fitness. The one flag is a 37-day layoff — the data shows this horse performs significantly better with shorter rest — so keep an eye on how sharp it looks in the paddock.

show3Miss Mo MagicML 6/1

Miss Mo Magic is the logical third wheel here, bringing a 2-for-2 record at Penn National and a claiming price drop from $25,000 to $16,000 — a class relief that often wakes up a horse. The third-best recent race speed figure in the field (12.85 sec/furlong) keeps it in the mix, and trainer Jacinto Solis has a B grade at this level. At 6/1 on the morning line, there's solid exotics value in using this one underneath in trifectas.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Keep Her Happy18%
1I Can Explain18%
4Berlinwin17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

7:12 PM EST

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

What Does It Take enters as a heavy single-horse favorite with the top TrackWiz rating by a wide margin and a jockey-trainer combo firing at a blistering rate — the question isn't whether this is the best horse, but whether the 8/5 morning line leaves enough value to build exotics around it.

win2What Does It TakeML 8/5

What Does It Take is simply the class of this field — an 89.12 TrackWiz rating that towers over second-ranked Bold Ambition at 64.86. The best recent race speed figure in the race (12.45 sec/furlong), a 27% career win rate, and 66% in-the-money mark across its career all tell the same story: this horse produces. The Rodriguez/Kulp combo is operating at a 34% win rate and 81% in-the-money rate over the past year, an elite pairing. Our simulations were emphatic, handing this one a 40.92% win share — by far the most of any horse in the field. Age (8 years old) is a legitimate concern, but the current form doesn't lie.

place5Bold AmbitionML 4/1

Bold Ambition sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 64.86 and owns the second-best recent race speed figure in the field at 12.49 sec/furlong, suggesting it can keep pace early. Trainer Bruce Kravets has an A- grade, and the Cora/Kravets combo has placed in 69% of their races over the past year — that's a strong connection for a place ticket. The layoff concern is real (only 15 days rest when the horse performs better on 30+ days), so manage expectations on the win side, but the talent is enough to target a placing.

show3LomaxML 4/1

Lomax checks the boxes you want from a show horse — 3 wins and 7 placings in 10 dirt starts, two consecutive in-the-money finishes, and a jockey in Jomar Torres with an 18% win rate over the past year. The 4/1 morning line feels right for this one's ceiling, but the consistency on dirt (70% in-the-money rate from career dirt starts) makes this a reliable third-slot play in trifectas where What Does It Take anchors on top.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

2What Does It Take41%
5Bold Ambition17%
1Uninvited Guest16%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 5

7:41 PM EST

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Houghton Shuffle stands out as a clear class edge in this allowance sprint, posting the top TrackWiz rating and the fastest recent race speed in the field, though a minor age flag keeps the price at a workable 7/2 and leaves room for exacta and trifecta construction.

win4Houghton ShuffleML 7/2

Houghton Shuffle leads the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 — a full 17.5 points clear of the nearest rival — and backs it up with the fastest recent race speed figure in the field at 11.69 sec/furlong. A 36% career win rate and 77% in-the-money rate are the marks of a horse that shows up consistently, and jockey Yabriel O. Ramos brings a 21% win rate and an active Ramos/Kravets combo that lands in-the-money 56% of the time. Our sims had this horse winning 28.59% of 10,000 simulations, the most of any runner in the race. The only flag is a 6-year-old age note, but the recent form doesn't suggest a horse on the decline.

place7Great Richie MML 9/2

Great Richie M is quietly one of the more consistent horses on today's full card — placing in-the-money in the last 6 consecutive races is not something you see every day, and an 8-for-26 career win rate on dirt tells you this horse competes. The 68.74 TrackWiz rating ranks second in the field, and jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez has a 20% win rate over the past year. At 9/2 on the morning line, this is a legit value play for exactas on top of Houghton Shuffle.

show1PaternoML 6/1

Paterno rounds out our exotics with the third-best TrackWiz rating (60.21), the second-fastest recent race speed figure in the field (11.80 sec/furlong), and two consecutive in-the-money finishes to show current form. The 7-for-17 record on dirt (41% career win rate on the surface) is impressive, and trainer Bruce Kravets has an A- grade. At 6/1 morning line, Paterno offers trifecta value as the most experienced and form-consistent of the mid-tier runners.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Houghton Shuffle29%
7Great Richie M17%
6Maximus Meridius13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

8:10 PM EST

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Souper Vinnie dominates this claiming sprint on paper with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — roughly 28 points clear of the second-best horse — making this one of the more lopsided-looking races on the card, though the 2/1 morning line reflects the market's awareness of that edge.

win2Souper VinnieML 2/1

Souper Vinnie is the standout in this field, rated 88.54 by TrackWiz — no other horse in the race cracks 65. The second-best recent race speed figure (12.50 sec/furlong) keeps this one in the early pace picture, and trainer Bruce Kravets carries an A- grade with the Cora/Kravets combo placing in-the-money 69% of the time over the past year. Our simulations backed the rating hard, giving Souper Vinnie a 33.95% win share across 10,000 runs. At 2/1, you're not getting overlay value, but you're also looking at a horse that is simply better than this field on current form.

place6Buzz AdamsML 5/1

Buzz Adams rates second in the field at 60.20 and leads the entire race with the fastest recent race speed figure at 12.30 sec/furlong — that's a real edge if the pace scenario sets up. Jockey Ramos has a 21% win rate over the past year, and the Ramos/Kravets combo places in-the-money 56% of the time. At 5/1 on the morning line, Buzz Adams is a legitimate exacta partner with Souper Vinnie, and the top speed figure alone justifies inclusion in multi-race tickets.

show1Lil SebastianML 5/1

Lil Sebastian brings the third-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 51.39 and the third-fastest recent race speed figure (12.66 sec/furlong), plus a notable class relief — the claiming price dropped from $15,000 to $5,000, which is a significant drop that often signals a trainer shopping for a spot where a horse can get its head in front. Jockey Jose E. Vargas has an 18% win rate over the past year, and at 5/1 morning line, Lil Sebastian is a reasonable show play for trifecta purposes in a race where the top two look well clear.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Souper Vinnie34%
6Buzz Adams17%
4More Power15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

8:39 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Gentle Breeze tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 in this six-furlong claimer, but Infamous Nono isn't far behind at 83.14 and brings more career dirt wins to the table — this shapes up as a two-horse battle at the top with the rest of the field likely running for thirds.

win1Gentle BreezeML 5/2

Gentle Breeze leads the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — a clear but not overwhelming edge over Infamous Nono at 83.14 — and has placed in 10 of 18 career dirt starts, showing consistent ability on the surface. The third-best recent race speed figure in the field (12.24 sec/furlong) and a Chiappe/Kravets jockey-trainer combo that places in-the-money 51% of the time over the past year give this horse a legitimate edge. Our simulations agreed, handing Gentle Breeze a 29.08% win share — the highest of any horse in this field. The one wrinkle is a claiming price increase from $4,000 to $5,000, meaning connections are stepping up slightly in company, but the rating and form still justify the top spot.

place6Infamous NonoML 5/1

Infamous Nono is the most experienced and accomplished horse in this race — 10 career wins from 31 dirt starts, 20 in-the-money finishes total, and a current streak of placing in the last 4 consecutive races. At a 32% career win rate, this horse has been a consistent winner at the claiming level, and trainer Mark Salvaggio holds an A- grade. The 6-year-old age flag is noted, but four straight in-the-money finishes say this horse has plenty left. At 5/1 morning line, Infamous Nono is an excellent exacta underneath or alongside Gentle Breeze.

show7Federal ExchangeML 5/1

Federal Exchange rounds out the exotics picture with the third-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 68.31 and a recent form line showing in-the-money finishes in 4 of the last 6 starts — that's the kind of current consistency you want from a show selection. The Ramos/Kravets combo has a 23% win rate and 56% in-the-money rate over the past year, keeping connections strong. The 7-year-old age flag is similar to what we see throughout today's card at Penn National, and the low career win rate (5%) is a caution on the win side — but as a show play at 5/1, the recent form makes this one worth including in trifectas.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Gentle Breeze29%
6Infamous Nono22%
7Federal Exchange14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Bottom line: Warrior's Finale is the free play to know today in Race 1 — sharp connections, fair price, clean angle. For the full card, What Does It Take in Race 4 is the number that jumps off the page, and our premium races feature a range of value spots in the allowance and claiming fields that are worth structuring around. Wet track, seven races, real opportunities — get the complete picture with a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing. Good luck out there, and watch that slop.

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