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Penn National Picks & Predictions — November 11, 2026

November 11, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

Best bets at Penn National today

Race 15MysteriosoML 2/15:45 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 5 races are for members.

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Last 30 days at Penn National: our top pick won 10 of 33 races (30%) and finished in the money in 20.

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Mysterioso is our TrackWiz best bet on today's free card — posting the fastest recent race speed in the Race 1 Maiden Special Weight field at 11.89 seconds per furlong, with our simulations giving the 2/1 morning-line contender a 34.82% chance to wire this field on a cool, cloudy afternoon at Penn National.

Conditions at Penn today are firm and consistent — 54°F under cloud cover with no rain in the mix, which should keep the dirt playing fair all card long. Seven races on the slate, all on dirt, ranging from a 5½-furlong sprint opener to a pair of one-mile routes in Races 2 and 3. It's a mid-week weekday card, so fields are lean and form is readable — exactly the kind of day where sharp angles stand out.

The card skews heavily toward claiming company, which means class questions are front and center throughout. Our models flagged some genuine value at prices north of 4/1 in the second half of the card — worth noting for those chasing overlays.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:45 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint where every entrant is unproven, but the TrackWiz ratings tell a clear story — Mysterioso has a commanding edge at 88.54, with a sizable gap back to the rest of a field that is bunched between 51 and 65.

win5MysteriosoML 2/1

Mysterioso is the standout in this field by a wide margin, posting the top TrackWiz rating at 88.54 and the fastest recent race speed figure of any horse in here at 11.89 sec/furlong. The horse has hit the board in all three of its recent races, showing a consistency that none of the other unproven maidens can match. Our simulations back up the dominance — Mysterioso topped 10,000 TrackWiz runs with a 34.82% win share, nearly double the next closest horse. Trainer Cathal Lynch earns an A grade, and the morning line of 2/1 is fair given everything pointing in this direction.

place4Sense of WonderML 3/1

Sense of Wonder comes in with a 65 TrackWiz rating and the key angle of winning most recently on October 30th — recency and form matter in a maiden field, and this horse has placed in 2 of 4 on dirt surfaces. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's a bit of value if the top pick hits any trouble, and placing in 1 of the last 1 races keeps the form cycle alive.

show3Hands Up StyleML 4/1

Hands Up Style is worth including in your exotics as the top workout horse in the field, ranking first over the last month at a sharp 11.65 sec/furlong, and posting the second-fastest recent race figure at 12.72 sec/furlong. The 4/1 morning line is fair and the horse won 12.93% of our simulations — not far off Sense of Wonder — making it a live third choice in an unpredictable maiden race.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Mysterioso35%
4Sense of Wonder19%
6Eclipticals Empire13%

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Race 1 is the one free look we're giving everyone today, and Mysterioso earns that spotlight on merit. Speed figures tell the story early: ranking first in the field on recent race speed is a real edge in a Maiden Special Weight where so many runners are unproven quantities. The jockey comes in with an 18% win rate and hit the board in over half of starts over the past year — not a barn-burner record, but solid enough in a spot like this. At 2/1 on the morning line, Mysterioso isn't a screaming overlay, but our 34.82% sim win probability suggests the market is roughly fair — and in maiden company, fair money on the most talented horse is often the right play.

The cool, dry weather is a neutral factor today — no slop to worry about, no surface bias emerging from recent rain. What you see is what you get at Penn National on a day like this, which should reward horses with the clearest form profile. That's another check in Mysterioso's column.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

6:14 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Beau Hill is a clear class-figure standout in this one-mile dirt claimer, rated 88.83 at the top of a field where the next horse checks in at 71.66 — a meaningful gap that makes this look like a vulnerable chalker situation if connections can get him to fire.

win1Beau HillML 9/5

Beau Hill tops the field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and has been building toward this with back-to-back in-the-money finishes. The horse has gone 1-for-7 on dirt but placed in 4 of those tries, showing consistent late-race presence on this surface. Trainer Paulina Sinnefia earns an A grade and jockey Dexter Haddock brings an A- rating, a strong pairing. Our sims gave Beau Hill a 35.27% win share — the most of any horse in the field — which aligns with the morning line positioning at 9/5.

place5LandofhopeandreamsML 7/2

Landofhopeandreams counters with the best recent race speed in the field at 12.58 sec/furlong and ranks second in TrackWiz ratings at 71.66. Jomar Torres has hit the board in 59% of his rides over the past year, and this horse has placed in 3 of 5 starts on dirt. The concern about short rest and being older than the field average is real, so rather than backing it to win, the place spot feels like the right way to include it in your tickets.

show3I'mamaterialgirlML 5/1

I'mamaterialgirl is a solid third choice here, placing in 8 of 13 dirt starts and hitting the board in 4 of her last 6 races — that's a consistent in-the-money profile. The claiming price jump from $7,500 to $10,000 is a legitimate concern, but the second-fastest recent pace figure at 12.69 sec/furlong suggests she can handle the pace scenario. At 5/1, she's a value hedge for exactas and trifectas.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Beau Hill35%
5Landofhopeandreams20%
2Holy Fit19%

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

6:43 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Fratellone stands well above the field on paper with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating, but the class drop of Thirteen G's and a rest-pattern concern for Fairfield Bay add layers to what could otherwise look like a straightforward chalk play in this one-mile dirt claimer.

win4FratelloneML 2/1

Fratellone is the top-rated horse in the field at 88.54 and shows a career win rate of 22% — the strongest on paper among the main contenders. Angel R. Rodriguez has been outstanding over the past year at a 29% win rate and 74% in-the-money, one of the sharper jockey profiles on this card. The horse has placed in 5 of 7 dirt starts and ranks second in recent race speed at 12.87 sec/furlong. TrackWiz sims put Fratellone on top with a 31.85% win share, and at 2/1 morning line, that's hard to argue against.

place5Fairfield BayML 3/1

Fairfield Bay has placed in 4 of its last 6 races and owns 7 total in-the-money finishes from 14 dirt starts, the kind of consistent form that earns a spot on your tickets. The 53-day layoff is the big flag here — our data shows this horse significantly prefers shorter rest and has a 0% win rate after 30-plus days off — so the place spot, rather than the win, is the prudent way to use it.

show1Thirteen G'sML 4/1

Thirteen G's is an interesting show play coming off a sharp class drop from $12,500 to $5,000, and the horse has placed in both of its most recent starts. It leads the field in recent race speed at 12.29 sec/furlong, which suggests it can be on or near the front early. The concern about going 0-for-3 at the one-mile distance is real, but at 4/1 morning line, the class drop and recent form make it a worthwhile trifecta inclusion.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Fratellone32%
5Fairfield Bay19%
1Thirteen G's17%

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Race 4

7:12 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A tricky six-furlong dirt claimer where the top two TrackWiz ratings are separated by only two points — Music Clarification at 84.90 and Gwen to Win at 82.44 — setting up a genuine battle at the top of the market and making the exacta the natural focal point here.

win5Music ClarifcationML 9/2

Music Clarification earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.90 and ranks second in recent race speed at 12.22 sec/furlong, just a tick behind Gwen to Win. The horse has placed in 9 of 14 dirt starts, a 64% in-the-money rate that speaks to durability and consistency in this kind of company. Jomar Torres brings an 18% win rate and 59% in-the-money figure over the past year, solid connections to send this one postward. With a 23.81% sim win share despite a 9/2 morning line, there's a measure of value here compared to the odds.

place3Gwen to WinML 5/2

Gwen to Win is the speed horse to watch, posting the fastest recent race figure in the field at 12.19 sec/furlong and carrying a 27.56% sim win share — the highest of any horse in this race. Martin Chuan has a 22% win rate and 61% in-the-money over the past year, and the horse's 3-for-16 dirt record understates just how often it's been competitive. This one looks like the natural pace setter and a genuine win threat, so placing it in your exactas with the top pick is the smart move.

show1Back Wall BanditML 4/1

Back Wall Bandit has quietly been one of the most consistent dirt horses on this card — 9 of 12 dirt starts in the money and placing in 4 of the last 6 races. The jump from a $5,000 to $10,000 claiming tag is a legitimate concern, as is a middling workout rank, but Angel R. Rodriguez's 29% win rate over the past year gives the horse a live pilot. At 4/1, it's a solid trifecta anchor.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Gwen to Win28%
5Music Clarifcation24%
1Back Wall Bandit16%

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Race 5

7:41 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

In a maiden claiming sprint where nobody has broken their maiden yet, Dont Even Think holds the top TrackWiz rating and the most consistent recent form — but Pozo's sharp speed figure off a long layoff keeps this from being a one-horse show.

win4Dont Even ThinkML 9/2

Dont Even Think sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 in a field where the next-rated horse is Explosive Run at 64.12 — a sizable gap. The horse has placed in 2 of 4 dirt starts and hit the board in each of its last 2 races, showing improving form at the right time. Trainer Elisha Perez earns an A- grade and the recent race speed figure of 12.82 sec/furlong ranks third in the field. Our sims gave this horse a 26.72% win share, the best in the field, making it the clear top choice even with a C-rated jockey aboard.

place5Explosive RunML 7/2

Explosive Run ranks second overall in TrackWiz ratings at 64.12 and posts the second-best recent race speed figure at 12.58 sec/furlong, showing genuine raw ability. The concern is a 0-for-2 record at Penn National specifically, which is worth noting in a spot where track familiarity can matter. At 7/2 on the morning line, it fits naturally into the place spot of your exotics without asking you to fully trust a horse that hasn't figured out this oval yet.

show1Twisted PineML 5/1

Twisted Pine brings a solid jockey angle — Yabriel O. Ramos has a 21% win rate and 56% in-the-money over the past year — which is an edge when the rest of this field has mixed connections. The horse's recent race speed figure is the fifth-fastest in the field, so it's not a pace threat, but at 5/1 morning line, it's a live trifecta piece if the top two set up for a closer or if chaos breaks out early in a maiden field.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Dont Even Think27%
2Pozo21%
5Explosive Run20%

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Race 6

8:10 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An intriguing six-furlong dirt claimer where the top two TrackWiz ratings are within a half-point of each other — The Piranha at 85.62 and Don's Last Ride at 85.30 — but the picks flip the morning-line order, making this a race where our model and the oddsmaker see things differently.

win3The PiranhaML 4/1

The Piranha leads the field in TrackWiz rating at 85.62 and posts the fastest recent race speed figure in the bunch at 12.78 sec/furlong, which is the kind of number that earns top billing. The horse has a 31% in-the-money rate and hasn't placed in its last three starts — that's the honest concern here — and a C-grade trainer adds some hesitation. But our sims gave The Piranha a 21.89% win share, and if the horse fires its best, the speed figures say it's good enough to win this. At 4/1, the value is real.

place4Don's Last RideML 8/5

Don's Last Ride is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and brings elite jockey/trainer connections — Yabriel O. Ramos wins 21% of his mounts and the Ramos/Kravets combo has a 22% win rate and 55% in-the-money over the past year. A class drop from $10,000 to $5,000 is a positive angle. The concern is a poor recent form line — only 1 in-the-money finish from the last 6 — and just 1 place finish in 5 sprint starts. The place spot is the right way to bet this one rather than backing the morning line head-on.

show2TorotoroML 9/2

Torotoro ranks third in TrackWiz ratings at 79.80 and posts the third-fastest recent race speed figure at 12.93 sec/furlong, keeping it in the conversation pace-wise. The 0-for-3 recent run is a red flag, but Wilfredo Corujo brings a solid A- jockey grade and the 9/2 morning line gives you a price worth working into your trifecta tickets. This is a horse that could bounce back off a layoff or pace scenario shift.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Don's Last Ride31%
3The Piranha22%
2Torotoro20%

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Race 7

8:39 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep nine-horse six-furlong dirt claimer where Serious Nonsense holds the top TrackWiz rating but goes postward at 6/1 morning line — an inverted odds situation that sets up significant overlay potential and makes this one of the more interesting betting races on the card.

win2Serious NonsenseML 6/1

Serious Nonsense tops the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 with the fastest recent race speed figure in the entire field at 12.16 sec/furlong — that combination of class and pace is hard to dismiss. The horse also carries a 42% career win rate, the best win percentage among the top contenders, and trainer Erin McClellan earns an A grade. The claiming price jump from $5,000 to $8,000 is a concern worth noting, but the Beato/McClellan combination has a 69% in-the-money rate over the past year, which is elite. At 6/1 morning line, our sims show 18.21% — that's a genuine overlay on paper.

place8Nit WitnessML 3/1

Nit Witness checks in with the second-highest TrackWiz rating at 77.54 and the third-fastest recent race speed at 12.50 sec/furlong, keeping it firmly in the mix without being the outright speed horse. The jockey/trainer combo of Vargas and Padilla-Preciado has a 29% win rate and 65% in-the-money over the past year — one of the sharpest connections on the entire card. With a 21.32% sim win share and 3/1 morning line, Nit Witness is actually the highest-rated horse by odds, making the win window real too.

show5Lady CharlotteML 4/1

Lady Charlotte has placed in each of her last three starts and shows 6 wins from 27 dirt starts — a 50% career in-the-money rate that holds up over a solid sample. She ranks second in recent race speed at 12.32 sec/furlong, suggesting she can be forwardly placed early in what could be a contested sprint. Trainer Bruce Kravets earns an A- grade and the horse fits naturally as a trifecta anchor at 4/1, especially in a nine-horse field where chaos can shuffle the order.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

8Nit Witness21%
2Serious Nonsense18%
5Lady Charlotte15%

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Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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Bottom line for today at Penn National: Mysterioso in Race 1 is the free best bet, backed by the fastest recent speed in the field and a simulation win probability that holds up at the morning-line price. For the full seven-race breakdown — pace projections, exotic tickets, and our value plays deep in the card — subscribe to TrackWiz premium. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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