Penn National Picks & Predictions — November 5, 2026

Sassy Sangria is the second-highest rated horse in the field at 75.29 and brings a consistent recent form cycle — she's hit the board in each of her last three starts and has placed in four of seven career dirt races. The jockey-trainer combo of Ricardo Chiappe and Bruce Kravets has connected at a 19% win rate together. The one concern worth noting is that her claiming price increased significantly from $10,000 to $25,000, which could mean she's stepping up in class. That said, her consistency over the last several starts is hard to dismiss.

Honorandaprayer posted the fastest recent race speed in this entire field at 12.20 seconds per furlong — that's a real edge in a six-furlong sprint. She's placed in 42% of her career starts, which is respectable for a maiden. The concern is a poor recent workout ranking — sixth in the field over the last month at 12.88 seconds per furlong — suggesting she may not be at peak sharpness right now. Still, that top-of-field race speed is the kind of number that keeps a horse in the exacta and trifecta conversation.

Tarsus Warrior is the most interesting horse in this race from a pure speed standpoint — he posted the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.78 seconds per furlong, edging his more-favored stablemate. His 76% in-the-money rate and two wins in eight of eleven dirt starts show he belongs on this surface. The knock on him is a short recovery window — just 14 days between starts when he performs better with 30 or more days of rest. That's a real concern, but the speed figure alone keeps him firmly in the place conversation at 4/1.

Confiscated makes a compelling show play with four wins and a board appearance in nine of thirteen dirt starts — a strong surface-specific record. She's hit the board in five of her last six starts, which is about as consistent a form cycle as you'll find in this field. Trainer Kathleen Demasi (B+ grade) and Ricardo Chiappe (A- jockey grade) are a solid pairing. At 5/1 morning line, she's a smart trifecta anchor behind the two Kulp horses.

Kelly's Into Luck is the race's most interesting value angle: jockey Angel Rodriguez's 29% win rate and 74% in-the-money figure over the past year are the best of any rider in this race, and his combo with trainer Brandon Kulp hits at 35% wins and an 81% board rate — the same elite connection that powered Ballad of Warrior earlier on the card. Her recent race speed ranks second in the field at 12.41 seconds per furlong. The TrackWiz model slots her second overall at 77.30 — essentially a coin flip with the top pick.

Let'em Hate brings a solid profile for show betting: a 77.08 TrackWiz rating (third in the field), a 52% career in-the-money rate, and a board appearance in eleven of eighteen dirt starts show she handles this surface well. The Cora-Kravets jockey-trainer combo has hit the board in 67% of their races together over the past year. With the morning line at 4/1, she offers reasonable value as a trifecta fill behind two horses with stronger top-line ratings.

Rogue Prince doesn't have the top-flight connections, but his form profile is quietly impressive — he's placed in six of twelve dirt starts and has hit the board in each of his last four races, giving him the most consistent recent form in this field. His recent race speed ranks third in the field at 12.78 seconds per furlong. The concern is a very short recovery time: just nine days between starts, well below the threshold where he typically performs best. That turnaround is worth monitoring, but the streak alone earns him a place ticket.

Draft Riots checks some meaningful boxes for a show play in a wide-open maiden sprint. His jockey, Angel Rodriguez, is arguably the standout rider in this race with a 29% win rate and 74% in-the-money figure over the past year — and Rodriguez appears on the TrackWiz Top 50 Jockeys list. Draft Riots has placed in his last two starts and pairs with an A-grade trainer in Wayne Potts. He won 15% of our simulations, third-best in the field, which supports keeping him in the exacta and trifecta.

Bermuda Run is a legitimately compelling place play. He's the second-highest rated horse in the field at 74.42, ranks second for recent race speed at 12.27 seconds per furlong — just a tick behind the race leader — and has six wins and board appearances in eighteen of thirty-five dirt starts, showing durable class on this surface. Jockey Inoel Beato's 19% win rate and 63% in-the-money figure are among the stronger rider numbers in this field. At 5/1, there's solid value here for exacta and place wagering.

Hay Chief benefits from the best jockey-trainer angle in this race: Angel Rodriguez posts a 29% win rate and 74% in-the-money figure, and his combo with trainer Brandon Kulp — who also runs the top-rated horse in Race 4 — fires at 35% wins and an 81% board rate. The specific distance record is encouraging too: one win and a board appearance in two of three starts at this exact one-mile-and-70-yard distance. The age concern (6 years old) is noted, but the connections alone keep him very much in the mix at 3/1.