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Penn National Picks & Predictions — November 4, 2026

November 4, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

Best bets at Penn National today

Race 13Royal MistML 5/15:45 PM EST

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Royal Mist is our free best bet on tonight's Penn National card — a 5/1 morning line shot in Race 1 whose jockey has cashed in 59% of starts over the past year and whose sim model gives her a 22% win probability against a maiden claiming field. That's real value hiding in plain sight to open the night.

Conditions at Penn are about as cooperative as you'll get this time of year — partly cloudy, a comfortable 63°F, and nothing in the forecast to worry the dirt surface. Seven races are on tap, mixing maiden claimers with straight claiming events and a Starter Optional Claiming feature in the finale, giving bettors a full range of class levels to attack.

What makes tonight's card interesting is the volume of competitive spots where the morning line underestimates our model's top selections. Race 4's Trophy Room is sitting at 2/1 with a 36.59% sim win probability — that's a horse the market may already respect, but several other plays offer better overlay potential. Scroll down and let's break it all down.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:45 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An all-maiden claiming sprint where every horse is listed as unproven in terms of running style, making pace projection a pure guessing game — the race shapes up as a wide-open affair with the top two TrackWiz-rated horses separated by over 17 points.

win3Royal MistML 5/1

Royal Mist sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 75.65, a healthy margin above the rest of this maiden field, and that edge shows up in our simulations too — she won 22% of 10,000 runs, the second-highest mark in the field. The David Cora/Bruce Kravets combo has clicked at an 18% win rate and 67% in-the-money rate over the past year, which is a legitimate edge in a race like this. The concern worth noting: she's placed in zero of her three tries at exactly this 5½-furlong distance, so the form at the distance isn't encouraging. Still, the class of her rating relative to this group is hard to ignore, and that jockey-trainer connection gives her a tactical edge.

place4Amelia AdamsML 2/1

Amelia Adams is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and backs it up with the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.56 seconds per furlong — no one else is close on that metric. She also carries a 100% in-the-money rate from her limited career sample, and the Chiappe/Kravets combo has a 19% win rate and 52% ITM over the past year. She's our place pick at a short price, but that recent speed figure makes her a legit threat to win outright.

show2Miss Ky TapML 3/1

Miss Ky Tap draws the inside-of-the-action post at 2 and owns a solid recent race speed figure (12.79 sec/furlong, second-best in the race). Jomar Torres has a 19% win rate and 58% in-the-money rate over the past year, bringing reliable connections to an otherwise murky maiden field. She didn't place in her last start, which is a mild red flag, but at 3/1 she's a reasonable exotic inclusion in a race where the pace scenario is completely unpredictable.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Amelia Adams23%
3Royal Mist22%
2Miss Ky Tap18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 1 is tonight's free look, and Royal Mist is the horse to watch. She ranks 3rd in the field for recent race speed at 13.02 seconds per furlong — not a blazing figure in a vacuum, but competitive enough in a maiden claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs on dirt. The jockey angle is real: a 17% win rate and 59% in-the-money finish rate over the past year speaks to a pilot who consistently puts horses in the right position when it matters. At 5/1 on the morning line with a 22% simulated win probability, Royal Mist represents genuine overlay value to kick off the card.

Dirt sprints like this maiden claiming opener tend to reward horses who can find a comfortable position early and sustain their run to the wire. With no defined pace shape available yet, watch the gate break closely — in short fields at Penn, early positioning can be the whole ballgame.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

6:14 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A claiming route with a genuine class question at the top — the top-rated Vicountess opens at 6/1 on the morning line despite owning the highest TrackWiz score in the field, suggesting the market isn't fully sold, which is exactly where value hides.

win1VicountessML 6/1

Vicountess is the class of this field by our numbers, rating out at 82.71 — nearly six points clear of second-ranked Unbounded Movement — and she's won 22% of her career starts with a 51% in-the-money rate, which is solid form for this level. Her recent race speed ranks third in the field at 12.76 sec/furlong, and the David Cora/Bruce Kravets combo that ran two horses in Race 1 brings that same 18% win rate and 67% ITM hook. At 6/1 on the morning line despite being the top-rated horse, our simulations back the value — she won 22.6% of 10,000 runs, nearly matching her actual career win percentage. The price relative to her rating is the story here.

place6Unbounded MovementML 3/1

Unbounded Movement checks in second in the TrackWiz ratings at 76.43 and posts the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.70 sec/furlong, behind only top speed figure holder Cheekiest. Jomar Torres brings a 19% win rate and 58% in-the-money rate over the past year, and at 3/1 on the morning line, she's attractively priced as a place component of your exacta. She's won 21.9% of our sims — essentially even with Vicountess — which suggests the race is a true two-horse battle at the top.

show3CheekiestML 9/2

Cheekiest owns the fastest recent race speed in this field (12.64 sec/furlong) and has placed in each of her last two starts, giving her some live recent form coming in. The age concern is real — she's a 6-year-old, which our model flags as typically past peak — but at 9/2 she offers genuine show value given that speed and in-the-money consistency of 58% for her career. Leonardo Corujo rides and brings a solid A- jockey grade to the assignment.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Vicountess23%
6Unbounded Movement22%
4Tortuga Island21%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

6:43 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Eight maidens going 5½ furlongs on dirt, and one horse — Williston Wizard — separates himself from the pack in a big way on our ratings, though a pair of first-time starters from trainer Erin McClellan add a wildcard element to the exotics.

win2Williston WizardML 9/2

Williston Wizard is the standout in this field, rating out at 84.90 — the top mark by 28+ points over the nearest maiden — and his connections are elite for this level. Trainer Edward Allard earns an A grade, the best in the race, and jockey Angel R. Rodriguez has posted a remarkable 29% win rate and 74% in-the-money rate over the past year, numbers that command respect in any field. He also owns the fastest recent race speed among horses with figures (13.10 sec/furlong) and has placed in two of four dirt starts, giving him a surface-positive record in a maiden field where many horses have zero or one dirt try. Our simulations backed him at 25.1% — the top mark in the race — and at 9/2 on the morning line, there's genuine value here against a weak maiden group.

place5A Little OffML 3/1

A Little Off draws the 5-post and shows a 20% jockey win rate from Julio Hernandez over the past year — one of the better pilot numbers in the race. The claiming price drop from $20,000 to $16,000 is a notable angle: connections are adjusting down to find a spot where this horse can be competitive, which is a common winning pattern at this level. The concern is real — his recent race speed ranks fourth, and he hasn't placed in his last two starts — but at 3/1 he's a logical place ticket alongside the top pick.

show1Judge CaprioML 6/1

Judge Caprio slipped down from $20,000 to $16,000 as well, and the third-ranked recent race speed (13.22 sec/furlong) gives him some measurable form to work with. He holds the 1-post, which at 5½ furlongs on a track like Penn National is a workable draw, and trainer Jose Rodriguez earns a B grade with jockey Jatniel Ramos also graded B+. The 25% career in-the-money rate is modest but functional for a show play, and at 6/1 on the morning line he rounds out our bottom of the ticket as an affordable exotic piece.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Williston Wizard25%
5A Little Off16%
4Dom Z Doodle12%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

7:12 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Trophy Room enters as a dominant top-rated horse with a massive gap over the field — over 25 points separating first from second — and his recent speed figures are the class of this 6-furlong sprint, setting up a potential wire-to-wire scenario if he breaks cleanly from the 2-post.

win2Trophy RoomML 2/1

Trophy Room is simply the best horse in this field by a wide margin — rated 88.54 by TrackWiz versus 63.04 for second-ranked Ellie's Boyfriend — and he backs it up with the fastest recent race speed at 12.15 seconds per furlong, which no one else in the field comes close to matching. He's won 21% of his career starts with a 41% in-the-money rate, holds an A-grade trainer in Erin McClellan, and the Beato/McClellan jockey-trainer combo has an 18% win rate and 69% ITM over the past year. Our simulations were emphatic: he won 36.6% of 10,000 runs — by far the top mark in the race — making him the clearest top selection on the card today. The only note to monitor is that he's listed at 6 years old, which the model flags as potentially past peak, but his speed figures say otherwise.

place3Ellie's BoyfriendML 5/2

Ellie's Boyfriend is a logical second choice with the second-fastest recent race speed in the field (12.17 sec/furlong) and an impressive dirt record — 7 wins and placed in 20 of 34 starts on the surface, including multiple wins at this exact surface/distance combination. His 57% career in-the-money rate is the highest of any horse in this field, which makes him a natural place and show play even if Trophy Room is too good to beat today. The concern worth noting is that he hasn't placed in his last three starts, so he's coming in off a cold stretch — but the class of his dirt form makes him tough to leave off the ticket.

show4GenghisML 7/2

Genghis ranks third in recent race speed at 12.32 sec/furlong and shows multiple wins at this exact 6-furlong dirt distance, making the surface and distance fit legitimate. Trainer Timothy Kreiser earns an A grade — a meaningful edge at this level — and David Cora holds a solid 17% win rate and 59% in-the-money rate from the saddle over the past year. The concern is a cold recent form cycle (placed in just one of his last six starts and hasn't placed in five straight), but at 7/2 on the morning line he's a reasonable show inclusion in exotics, particularly if the top two run as expected.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Trophy Room37%
3Ellie's Boyfriend22%
4Genghis15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

7:41 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A short 5-furlong maiden sprint on dirt where none of the six horses have ever won, and the top two TrackWiz ratings are separated by less than three points — this is a genuinely competitive race where our simulations show three horses bunched between 19% and 24%.

win1Cocoa NimbusML 3/1

Cocoa Nimbus tops the TrackWiz ratings at 72.08 and posts the second-fastest recent race speed in the field at 13.35 sec/furlong, putting him firmly in the pace mix for a short 5-furlong dash. He's the highest-rated horse and drew the rail — which at 5 furlongs on dirt can be a live post position — giving him a potential ground-saving trip if he breaks clean. Our simulations showed him winning 22% of 10,000 runs, tied for top in the race, though the concerns are real: he's placed in just two of nine career sprint starts and only one of his last six outings, so the form line is inconsistent. This is a race where even the top pick carries meaningful risk, but his rating and speed figure make him the most defensible choice.

place6MysonsgoinproML 2/1

Mysonsgoinpro opens at 2/1 as the morning-line favorite and ran the third-fastest recent race speed (13.66 sec/furlong) while winning 24.2% of our 10,000 simulations — the top sim total in the field, slightly edging Cocoa Nimbus. He's placed in just one of four sprint starts, and his trainer carries only a C grade, which tempers enthusiasm. That said, his speed at this distance and the market's confidence in him as the chalk makes him a natural play underneath, and at 2/1 he's the most likely exacta partner if Cocoa Nimbus breaks on top.

show5IntothemysticML 4/1

Intothemystic checks in third in the TrackWiz ratings at 66.55 and brings the top jockey in the race — Jomar Torres with a 19% win rate and 58% in-the-money rate over the past year — along with trainer Kathleen Demasi's solid B+ grade. The form concern is legitimate: he's placed in just one of his last five starts and hasn't been in the money in four straight, which is the kind of cold streak that makes him a show play rather than a win play. At 4/1, though, he's a reasonable third leg in an exacta box or trifecta underneath the top two picks.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Mysonsgoinpro24%
1Cocoa Nimbus22%
5Intothemystic19%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 6

8:10 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Megan's Honor looms as a clear class standout in this 6-furlong dirt claimer with the top rating and top simulation numbers, but The Sinner Is You adds intrigue at 6/1 with the fastest raw speed figure in the field — if the pace sets up right, there could be a dramatic finisher at a solid price.

win5Megan's HonorML 2/1

Megan's Honor is the class of this field, rated 88.54 — the same elite mark as Trophy Room in Race 4 — and she backs it up with the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.37 sec/furlong alongside a career record of 9 wins and placed in 31 of 52 dirt starts, an in-the-money rate of 57%. Our simulations gave her a 31.5% win share across 10,000 runs, nearly double the nearest competitor. Julio Hernandez gets the call and has posted a 20% win rate and 57% in-the-money rate over the past year — a solid book. The age concern (she's 9 years old) is real and worth acknowledging, but her speed figures and volume of competitive dirt starts say she's still doing it.

place3The Sinner Is YouML 6/1

The Sinner Is You is the most intriguing horse in this race — he owns the fastest recent race speed in the entire field at 11.93 sec/furlong, a figure that is legitimately fast for this level. He's also accumulated 6 wins and placed in 21 of 35 dirt starts with a career win rate of 24%, and trainer Murray Rojas earns an A- grade. The red flags are real — he's a 10-year-old who hasn't placed in his last three starts — but at 6/1 on the morning line, the speed figure makes him a live place option and a must-use in exactas if you're trying to beat Megan's Honor. David Cora (17% win rate, 59% ITM over the past year) gives him a capable rider.

show4Harbor of GoldML 9/2

Harbor of Gold brings two of the strongest connections in the race — trainer Erin McClellan (A grade) and jockey Inoel Beato, whose pairing with McClellan has produced an 18% win rate and 69% in-the-money rate over the past year. He rates third in the field at 71.93 and carries a 48% career in-the-money rate across his career, making him a consistent enough type to anchor the bottom of an exacta or trifecta. The concern worth flagging: he's coming in with only 12 days of rest, and our model notes he performs better with 30 or more days between starts. That layoff pattern is the main reason he slots as a show play rather than a stronger position.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Megan's Honor32%
3The Sinner Is You20%
4Harbor of Gold18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

8:39 PM EST

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

An eight-horse Starter Optional Claiming route going 1 mile and 70 yards on dirt — Wink of an Eye stands out as the class of the field with the top rating and top simulation numbers, while My Sugar Boo brings a hot recent form streak that makes the pace scenario over a mile particularly interesting.

win6Wink of an EyeML 3/1

Wink of an Eye is the top-rated horse in this race at 87.08, holds a 30% career win rate — the highest in the field — and has placed in 15 of 22 career dirt starts, a 65% in-the-money rate that speaks to consistent competitiveness. She's placed in each of her last two starts and won 23.9% of our 10,000 simulations, the top mark in the race. The jockey angle is a big one: Angel R. Rodriguez carries a 29% win rate and 74% in-the-money rate over the past year, elite numbers at this level, and that combination of horse talent and pilot quality makes this a strong top selection despite a 3/1 morning line that's not exactly generous.

place7My Sugar BooML 5/1

My Sugar Boo owns the fastest recent race speed in this eight-horse field at 12.25 sec/furlong — a meaningful edge in a route race where early positioning matters over a mile. He's placed in each of his last four consecutive starts, which is genuine current form, and has accumulated 4 wins and placed in 11 of 22 career dirt starts. At 5/1 on the morning line, he's the most live price in the top of the ticket, and our simulations backed him at 16.2% — well above his implied odds. Leonardo Corujo (A- jockey grade) is a capable partner for this kind of live place play.

show3Miti Fast FlowerML 10/1

Miti Fast Flower is listed at 10/1 on the morning line but brings a compelling under-the-radar profile: a 22% career win rate, 62% in-the-money rate, and has placed in 4 of her last 6 starts, suggesting she's in good form right now. Jockey Martin Chuan earns an A grade — the best jockey grade in the race — and his 21% win rate and 60% in-the-money rate over the past year are numbers that play well in a wide-open field. The concern is her recent race speed ranking seventh in this field, which suggests she might need a hot pace to close into, but at 10/1 she's a legitimate trifecta piece who could surprise if the front horses set it up for her.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Wink of an Eye24%
7My Sugar Boo16%
2Ade13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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Tonight at Penn National, Royal Mist in Race 1 is the free play — a legitimate overlay at 5/1 with strong jockey numbers backing the selection. If you want the full picture across all seven races, including pace projections, exotic ticket breakdowns, and our best value plays in the premium card, subscribers have everything they need. It's a winnable night — let's make it count.

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