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Penn National Picks & Predictions — October 28, 2026

October 28, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

Penn National kicks off Wednesday under a grey October sky, with temperatures sitting at a crisp 59°F and cloudy conditions overhead. That kind of cool, stable weather tends to keep the dirt track consistent and fast — good news if you like speed horses with early pace, and today's card has a few of those worth watching closely.

Seven races are on the slate, ranging from a Maiden Special Weight opener to a pair of Starter Optional Claiming routes to close out the afternoon. The mix of distances — sprints at 5 and 5½ furlongs, two one-mile routes, and a slightly extended 1 mile 70 yards in Race 4 — gives us a diverse set of pace scenarios to work through. Plenty of spots where the right horse in the right race can deliver real value.

TrackWiz has crunched the numbers on the full card. Three races are unlocked for everyone, and our top-rated horse across those free races checks in with an 88.54 rating — that's Arrow Speed in Race 3. Let's dig in.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint where TrackWiz's model finds a massive gap between the top-rated horse and the rest of the field — but maiden races are always full of unknowns.

win3Little SnuffML 4/1

Little Snuff (3) is the standout by a significant margin in this field, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 — more than 28 points clear of the next closest horse. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets sends her out at 4/1 on the morning line, which represents real value if the rating holds up in the gate-to-wire sprint. With an avg speed figure of 52, she's not the blazing speedster of the field, but in maiden company at 5½ furlongs, consistency and tactical versatility often matter more than raw pace. Jockey Yabriel O. Ramos gets the call, and this figures to be the horse to beat.

place6Rosie's RascalML 5/2

Rosie's Rascal (6) draws plenty of attention as the morning-line favorite at 5/2, backed by trainer Cathal A. Lynch and jockey Jose A. Batista. Her TrackWiz rating of 57.5 leads the field outside of Little Snuff, and matching speed figures of 54 with Epic Blockage suggest she could press the pace and hold for a piece. In maiden sprints, the public tends to be right about second-best, making her a solid place anchor in exotics.

show7Epic BlockageML 7/2

Epic Blockage (7) is an interesting third piece at 7/2 on the morning line, posting a TrackWiz rating of 55.83 and matching the 54 avg speed figure shared by several horses in the field. Trainer Chuck Spina has this one set up well for a first-time effort, and with jockey Angel R. Rodriguez aboard, there's tactical awareness in the irons. At a competitive price, he rounds out a natural win-place-show sequence nicely.

Race 2

6:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

War Salute looks like a class standout in this short-field claiming sprint, but Supremely Wicked is the morning-line chalk and won't go quietly at 5 furlongs.

win6War SaluteML 3/1

War Salute (6) is our top selection here, packing the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 while posting an 8% career win rate — respectable for the claiming ranks. Trainer Joey Martinez puts Wilfredo Corujo up, a jockey who knows this oval well. The avg speed of 54 ties him with several rivals, but the overall rating gap tells us this horse has been doing more things right in its recent form cycle. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate value for a horse that grades out this cleanly.

place3Supremely WickedML 2/1

Supremely Wicked (3) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and earns that status with a 75.04 TrackWiz rating and a 9% career win percentage. Trainer Phillip J. Farley puts Leonardo Corujo up over 5 furlongs of dirt — a surface and distance combo that suits front-runners and pace pressers alike. Even if War Salute is the better horse on paper, Supremely Wicked has the kind of consistency that makes her a near-lock for the exacta.

show5The PiranhaML 8/1

The Piranha (5) is the sneaky play in this field at 8/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 63.48 — third-best in the race and notably ahead of the other sub-65 rated horses. What makes this one interesting is the ceiling: a 63-rated horse at double-digit odds in a short claiming sprint at 5 furlongs can absolutely hit the board. Trainer Mark Ippolito sends Vladimir Diaz out here, and while the career win rate is unlisted, the speed figure of 54 keeps pace with the top trio.

Race 3

6:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Arrow Speed is a heavy-leaning morning-line favorite in this one-mile claiming affair, but the pace scenario in a full six-horse field could give the closers a sneaky chance.

win6Arrow SpeedML 2/1

Arrow Speed (6) commands the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the race by a wide margin — and backs it up with an 18% career win percentage, which is strong for the claiming division. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp puts Angel R. Rodriguez in the irons, a jockey who also rides the top selection in Race 4, showing confidence in this partnership. At 2/1 on the morning line, the price isn't juicy, but the separation from the field makes this a confident win selection in a race where the class advantage is clear.

place3Morning ThoughtsML 3/1

Morning Thoughts (3) is the second choice on the morning line at 3/1 and justifies that position with a 54.87 TrackWiz rating and an impressive 19% career win rate — tied with Patton's Tizzy for the highest in the field. Trainer Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon has this one set up to run a solid race over a mile of dirt, and Julio A. Hernandez is a capable pilot who can navigate a one-turn route. Even against Arrow Speed's imposing figure, Morning Thoughts figures to contest the place slot.

show4BroderickML 5/1

Broderick (4) offers decent show value at 5/1 with a 48.64 TrackWiz rating and a 12% career win percentage that suggests a horse capable of hitting the board on a good day. Trainer Don L. Bryant has Jatniel Ramos aboard, and over a one-mile distance, trip luck and positioning can play a big role. If the pace heats up early, Broderick's profile as a potential closer makes him a useful third in trifecta constructions.

Our three free races — the Maiden Special Weight opener, the 5-furlong claiming sprint in Race 2, and the one-mile claimer in Race 3 — paint an interesting early picture of the day. Little Snuff draws our eye in the first, offering what we see as legitimate win potential at a morning line of 4/1. A horse priced that way in an MSW on a cool, dry track is worth a close look, especially when the TrackWiz rating backs the story at 85.62.

War Salute at 3/1 in Race 2 grades out similarly well, but it's Arrow Speed in Race 3 that stands out as the strongest play in the free portion of the card — an 88.54 rating going a mile on the dirt is the kind of number that demands attention. If you're only playing a few races today, those three give you a solid foundation to build on. The pace scenario in each of these races sets up cleanly, without a lot of chaos at the front — which in our experience tends to favor the horse with the most overall ability rather than a lone speed horse stealing a soft lead.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Duck Duck Goose enters as a legitimate short-priced favorite in this one-mile-plus claiming route, but Bernie Goes Boom is no pushover — this top two are well clear of the others.

win2Duck Duck GooseML 8/5

Duck Duck Goose (2) checks in with the top TrackWiz rating in the race at 89.12 and brings a standout 18% career win percentage into a five-horse field — that kind of hit rate over an extended career speaks to consistent competitiveness at this level. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp pairs again with Angel R. Rodriguez (who also pilots Arrow Speed in Race 3), and this trainer-jockey duo is clearly in form on the card. At 8/5 on the morning line, this is a horse you likely need to beat if you want to cash a ticket.

place1Bernie Goes BoomML 5/2

Bernie Goes Boom (1) is no throwaway at 5/2 on the morning line, carrying an 84.88 TrackWiz rating that puts this horse firmly in contention for the exacta. Trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter and jockey Martin Chuan team up here, and with a 9% career win rate, Bernie Goes Boom has clearly found ways to hit the board at this distance before. The slightly longer 1-mile-70-yard trip could favor a horse with route stamina, and this one is worth keying underneath Duck Duck Goose.

show4Neptune BeachML 4/1

Neptune Beach (4) rounds out the TrackWiz selections at 4/1 on the morning line, posting a 78.78 rating that makes this horse third-best in what is actually a quality top trio. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser and jockey David Cora bring a 7% career win percentage into a distance that suits routers, and in a race where the top two will likely push each other, Neptune Beach could sneak into the show hole. Worth including in your trifecta box.

Race 5

7:41 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite Show Time carries a strong win percentage but TrackWiz's model flips the script — Great Richie M tops the selections as a potential overlay at 5/1.

win1Great Richie MML 5/1

Great Richie M (1) is our top pick at a very playable 5/1 on the morning line, sitting on an 84.17 TrackWiz rating backed by a 25% career win percentage — a legitimately impressive strike rate at any level. Trainer Paulina Sinnefia sends Carlos Eduardo Lopez to the post in this allowance optional claiming sprint at 6 furlongs, and the avg speed figure of 55 is competitive with the top horses in this field. If you're looking for value in a race where the public will pile onto Show Time, Great Richie M is where the smart money could land.

place5Show TimeML 8/5

Show Time (5) is the 8/5 morning-line favorite for good reason — a 32% career win rate is elite, and the 80.94 TrackWiz rating keeps this horse in the conversation. Trainer David Jacobson, who also runs Track Phantom in this race, clearly sends out the more accomplished horse with Angel R. Rodriguez in the irons. Even as our place selection rather than the top pick, Show Time is dangerous and should be included in every exotic combination here.

show3Paynted WarriorML 4/1

Paynted Warrior (3) brings the highest avg speed figure in the race at 56 and a 27% career win rate that would make this horse a contender in almost any field at this level. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser and jockey Angel Cruz have a horse that knows how to win, and in a 6-furlong allowance sprint, that kind of natural foot can get you to the wire in a hurry. At 4/1, Paynted Warrior is a legitimate show anchor and could easily outrun that price.

Race 6

8:10 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Lino's Fire dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this starter optional claiming route and projects as a clear class edge — the question is whether the 2/1 chalk delivers at a mile of Penn dirt.

win4Lino's FireML 2/1

Lino's Fire (4) posts an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by more than 20 points — and comes in as the 2/1 morning-line favorite, which is well-deserved based on what the numbers say. Trainer Chris R. Harting puts Wilfredo Corujo aboard for the one-mile trip, and with a 9% career win percentage, Lino's Fire has demonstrated the ability to get to the wire first. In a starter optional claiming field, a horse that grades out this decisively on the TrackWiz model deserves to be your race anchor.

place3Hall of JazzML 4/1

Hall of Jazz (3) earns the place slot with a 66.88 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win percentage, making this one of the more seasoned horses in the field. Trainer Flint W. Stites sends Leonardo Corujo out at 4/1 — a price that may drift further depending on late money, which could create solid place value. Over a one-mile route, the avg speed of 53 keeps Hall of Jazz competitive enough to fill out an exacta behind the favorite.

show2LetspumpthebrakesML 5/1

Letspumpthebrakes (2) is an interesting third piece at 5/1 on the morning line, bringing a 16% career win percentage that is actually the second-highest in this field. Trainer T. Bernard Houghton (who also runs two horses in Race 1) puts David Cora up here, and the 58.52 TrackWiz rating is solid for a horse at this price point. The name may be amusing but the profile is serious — include this one in your trifectas.

Race 7

8:39 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Banco Di Sicilia leads a stacked-looking top of the field in this one-mile starter optional claiming, with four horses all rating in the 77-plus range — expect a genuine horse race here.

win1Banco Di SiciliaML 2/1

Banco Di Sicilia (1) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 — the same elite figure as Lino's Fire in Race 6 — and brings a 12% career win percentage that ranks among the better numbers in this field. Trainer Marya K. Montoya puts Magglio Sanchez aboard at 2/1 on the morning line, and with an avg speed of 52, this one is better than that figure suggests based on the overall profile. In a race this competitive, the slight edge in the model makes Banco Di Sicilia the right side to be on at the top of your tickets.

place2Rosie OutlookML 6/1

Rosie Outlook (2) is a juicy place play at 6/1 on the morning line, despite owning an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — a number that would be the top figure in most races on this card. Trainer Felix L. Flores-Coba and jockey Francisco Martinez have a horse with real talent that appears to be flying under the radar of the morning-line makers. With an avg speed of 51, she'll need things to set up favorably over the mile, but the value here relative to the rating is hard to ignore.

show6Secret OaksML 6/1

Secret Oaks (6) shares the exact same 82.71 TrackWiz rating as Rosie Outlook and leads all horses in this race with a 16% career win percentage — that hit rate is the clearest indicator that this horse knows how to finish. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser — who appears three times on today's card — puts Martin Chuan aboard at 6/1, and at that price with these credentials, Secret Oaks is a must-use in trifectas. The pace scenario over a mile of Penn National dirt could set up perfectly for a horse that has consistently converted.

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Bottom line: Penn National is offering a tight, well-constructed seven-race card on a day where track conditions should be fair and predictable. Arrow Speed is our top free play, Duck Duck Goose is the number to beat in the premium races, and Great Richie M at 5/1 is the value angle we're most excited about. Want the full picture — pace, exotics, and all seven races? Unlock the complete TrackWiz card breakdown and come to the window ready.

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