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Penn National Picks & Predictions — October 23, 2026

October 23, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

It's a crisp Friday afternoon at Penn National — 54°F under partly cloudy skies — and the kind of weather that tends to keep the dirt track honest and the speed figures reliable. Seven races are on the board today, all on the main track, ranging from maiden claimers and maiden special weights to allowance company and a route starter optional claimer that shapes up as one of the more intriguing contests of the afternoon.

Penn National is a tight, one-turn oval that rewards horses with early speed and clean trips, but today's card has enough route action and class variation to keep every type of bettor engaged. Whether you're firing on a short-priced allowance horse or looking to sneak in on a morning-line longshot in one of the maiden fields, there are angles here worth digging into.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer where none of these six have broken their maiden yet, but TrackWiz ratings tell a clear story at the top — with a pair of horses separating themselves from the pack.

win2Ivey My LoveML 7/2

Ivey My Love tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35, the highest mark in this field, and that edge is meaningful when the rest of the runners are so tightly bunched. Trainer Robert A. Werneth sends her out at 7/2 on the morning line — fair value for a horse our model likes best. Paul A. Luna gets the call in the irons, and with an average speed figure of 53 that's right in line with the top horses here, she's got the profile to break through at a solid price.

place1Zephyr's JewelML 2/1

Zephyr's Jewel drew the rail and comes in with an 84.94 TrackWiz rating — just a tick behind our top pick but well clear of the rest of the field. Trainer Brittany T. Russell has her positioned as the morning line favorite at 2/1, and Kevin Gomez knows how to get the most out of a horse from the inside post in a sprint. If Ivey My Love runs into any trouble, this one has the profile to capitalize.

show4Love in the HillsML 8/1

Love in the Hills is an interesting inclusion for exotics at 8/1 on the morning line, offering real overlay potential in a maiden field this soft. Her TrackWiz rating of 62.79 is the third-best in the race, sitting well above Twisted Pine and Smart Philly despite her long price. Trainer Cesareo Marquez sends her out with Luis M. Ocasio, and in a wide-open maiden event, getting show value at this price makes her a useful ticket-builder.

Race 2

10:14 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint that looks like a two-horse battle at the top, but there's enough depth in the middle of the field to make the exacta and trifecta tickets interesting.

win2Our Golden GatorML 3/1

Our Golden Gator is the standout in this field by TrackWiz ratings — an 87.08 figure that's a clear separation from everyone below. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp has her clicking at a 16% career win rate, and Angel R. Rodriguez is a capable rider who can position her favorably from the two-hole in a six-furlong dirt sprint. The 3/1 morning line price is fair for a horse this well-rated, and she's the logical win play.

place6Gwen to WinML 5/1

Gwen to Win brings an 83.0 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate — both strong numbers for this level. She's priced at 5/1, which makes her an attractive place option if she runs to her rating behind our top pick. Trainer Wayne Potts sends her out with Martin Chuan aboard, and her average speed figure of 55 is tied for the best in the field, a detail worth highlighting when pace scenarios tighten up late.

show8SheherhersML 6/1

Sheherhers is worth including on the bottom of your exotics at 6/1. Her TrackWiz rating of 78.03 makes her the third-ranked horse in the race, and her average speed of 55 ties her with the top horses for raw pace numbers. Trainer Flint W. Stites has her going with Maicol J. Inirio up, and a 16% career win rate suggests she hits the board more often than the odds might imply — solid show value here.

Race 3

10:43 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An eleven-horse maiden special weight at 5½ furlongs features one horse whose TrackWiz rating towers over the rest — but two double-digit longshots lurk at the bottom of a chaotic field.

win7Royal MistML 9/2

Royal Mist is the clear class of this field on paper, posting an 84.9 TrackWiz rating that's more than 29 points clear of second-ranked Port Elizabeth. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets puts Ricardo Chiappe in the irons — a solid booking — and at 9/2 on the morning line, she's not the chalk but she carries the best number by a wide margin. Her average speed figure of 53 is consistent with the pace expectations here, and in a maiden field with several first-time starters, that reliability is a genuine edge.

place11Port ElizabethML 7/2

Port Elizabeth comes in second among rated horses at 55.83, and Trainer T. Bernard Houghton is a name to respect at Penn National. She's priced at 7/2, which is actually tighter than our win pick — that morning line may not reflect her true odds-on value relative to Royal Mist's superior rating. Inoel Beato rides, and with an average speed of 53, she's got the footprint to run a respectable second in a full field.

show4Lily's GalML 5/1

Lily's Gal checks in at 53.33 on the TrackWiz scale and is trained by Elisha Perez, who has multiple horses entered tonight — a sign of a stable in form. Jomar Torres gets the mount, a capable pilot at Penn National, and at 5/1 she represents reasonable show value in a maiden field with several unknowns. Her average speed of 54 edges out Port Elizabeth and Royal Mist on raw figures, which could matter if the pace scenario sets up for closers.

TrackWiz is giving you a full look at the first three races on today's card — and there's a real thread running through them. All three are sprint distances on dirt, which means pace setup is everything. On a track like Penn National, horses that can secure a ground-saving trip or pop out of the gate cleanly tend to have a decided edge. Keep that in mind as you assess the free picks.

Ivey My Love (R1, 7/2 ML) is our top-rated horse in the opener, earning an 86.35 TrackWiz rating in a maiden claimer field that looks beatable. Our Golden Gator (R2, 3/1 ML) steps into allowance company with an 87.08 rating — the highest of our three free selections — and looks like the class of her field on today's numbers. Round out the free card with Royal Mist (R3, 9/2 ML) in the maiden special weight at 5½ furlongs, a deceptively tricky sprint distance that can catch pace pressers off guard.

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Race 4

11:12 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite doesn't match up with the TrackWiz numbers in this maiden special weight, creating a potential value scenario where two higher-rated horses go off at longer prices.

win6Queen Ofthe CosmosML 6/1

Queen Ofthe Cosmos sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 81.28 — and she's doing it at 6/1 on the morning line, which is terrific value when the horses above her on the odds board carry significantly lower ratings. Trainer Erin C. McClellan puts Inoel Beato up, and with an average speed of 53, she's consistent and ready for this distance. In a maiden field where the market doesn't always reflect true form, our model flagging her as the top-rated runner at a big price is exactly the kind of overlay you're looking for.

place7Groovy N GrayML 8/1

Groovy N Gray is just a step behind at 79.79 on the TrackWiz scale and is also going off at a generous 8/1 morning line. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp has shown up strong tonight with multiple horses on the card, and Jomar Torres is an experienced hand in the irons. An average speed of 55 is one of the highest in this race, suggesting she's capable of pressing or setting a pace that suits her late.

show2RevealingML 3/1

Revealing is the morning line second choice at 3/1, and her average speed figure of 56 is the top mark in this maiden field. Trainer Flint W. Stites sends her out with Ricardo Chiappe, one of the more active riders on the Penn National circuit, and while her TrackWiz rating of 56.67 trails our top two picks, that raw speed number is worth respecting. She's a logical show inclusion for anyone building a trifecta around the two higher-rated runners.

Race 5

11:41 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This allowance optional claiming sprint features a legitimate standout by both TrackWiz rating and career win percentage, but a competitive pace scenario means there's real money to be made underneath.

win6Follow the FellowML 5/1

Follow the Fellow is the horse to beat here, plain and simple. A TrackWiz rating of 84.17 leads the field, and a 40% career win rate is the kind of number that makes you sit up straight — that's not a horse that sniffs the winner's circle occasionally, that's a horse that gets it done consistently. Trainer Chuck Spina puts Angel R. Rodriguez in the saddle, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate value on a horse who profiles this well.

place4Gordian KnotML 7/2

Gordian Knot brings a solid 74.44 TrackWiz rating and a 26% career win rate — dependable numbers for a horse who can hit the board in a race like this. Trainer Jamie Ness is a respected name at this level, and Martin Chuan is an experienced rider who can manage the pace scenario from the four-post. At 7/2, he's appropriately priced as a contender and makes for a natural place play behind our top selection.

show3Rebel InvasionML 4/1

Rebel Invasion has the third-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 70.62 and posts a 28% career win rate — a legitimately strong percentage that says this horse finishes in the money with regularity. Trainer George R. Albright sends him out with Wilfredo Corujo, and his average speed of 56 ties with our win pick for the top mark in the race. If you're building a trifecta, Rebel Invasion is a solid bottom-rung play at 4/1.

Race 6

12:10 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile starter optional claiming event where the morning line favorite doesn't match the TrackWiz leader — making this a race where the value play and the chalk are two different horses.

win2What Does It TakeML 4/1

What Does It Take earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 85.62 and is going off at 4/1 — a price that makes sense given the competitive look of the morning line, but our model sees clear separation. A 25% career win rate backs it up, and trainer Brandon L. Kulp is having an active night at Penn National, suggesting a stable in confident form. Angel R. Rodriguez is aboard, a strong booking, and at a mile on dirt, this horse has the staying profile to get the job done.

place4TranscendentalML 3/1

Transcendental is the morning line favorite at 3/1 and carries a 67.43 TrackWiz rating, which puts him in solid contention even if he sits second to our top pick by our metrics. His 26% career win rate is one of the better figures in the field, and trainer Esteban Padilla sends him with Jorge A. Vargas Jr., who has multiple rides tonight — a sign of good form from rider and barn alike. At a mile, class and experience matter, and this horse brings both.

show6Collection DayML 2/1

Collection Day is the morning line favorite at 2/1 — which tells you the market sees this differently than our model. A TrackWiz rating of 65.27 and an 18% career win rate make her a legitimate contender, just not the top-rated one. Trainer Michael V. Simone puts Jaime Rodriguez up, and her average speed of 52 is consistent with the field. She's a natural show inclusion given her market support, and if she runs to her odds, the tickets should pay.

Race 7

12:39 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The morning line has a clear favorite in this one-mile-and-70-yards claimer, but TrackWiz tells a different story — with the top-rated horse going off at 5/1 and a pair of mid-field contenders offering real value underneath.

win2Cove Bay BoyML 5/1

Cove Bay Boy tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 — the highest figure in this field — yet the morning line has him at 5/1, a genuine overlay compared to what our model sees. Trainer George R. Albright has a steady hand at Penn National, and Leonardo Corujo gets the call in a race where positioning at a longer distance will be critical. His 11% career win rate is modest, but in a claiming field at this class level, the raw rating advantage is the more meaningful number.

place6Harbor of GoldML 8/1

Harbor of Gold is a fascinating place play at 8/1 — a price that looks too long given her 72.44 TrackWiz rating, which is the second-best in this race. Trainer Erin C. McClellan has two horses in this race, which often signals stable confidence, and Inoel Beato is a capable rider who can navigate a two-turn trip. Her average speed of 53 edges out most of the field, and at 8/1, she represents one of the better value plays on tonight's card.

show7BigdaddysboyML 6/1

Bigdaddysboy checks in at 69.85 on the TrackWiz scale, the third-highest rating in the race, and brings the best average speed figure in this field at 55 — a notable edge in a race that stretches around two turns. Trainer Erin C. McClellan doubles up with this one alongside Harbor of Gold, suggesting she's sending her best to the post. At 6/1, he's a strong show play and a smart inclusion on the bottom of your exacta and trifecta tickets.

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Today's Penn National card is a solid Friday slate — cool conditions, seven dirt races, and multiple spots where the morning line looks beatable. Ivey My Love, Our Golden Gator, and Royal Mist are your free best bets to kick off the afternoon. For the full-card breakdown — including longshot angles, exotic ticket strategy, and pace projections through Race 7 — subscribe to TrackWiz Premium and get every edge we've found today. Good luck at the windows.

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