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Parx Racing Picks & Predictions — August 31, 2026

August 31, 202610 racesAll Parx Racing picks

This card ran on August 31, 2026.

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Best bets at Parx Racing, August 31, 2026

Race 11We Miss NeilML 4/112:40 PM EDT

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Happy Labor Day eve at Parx Racing, where a full 10-race Monday card is lined up under cloudy skies and a comfortable 78°F. Conditions are about as clean as late-August in Pennsylvania gets — no heat stress on the horses, no rain in the mix. That's a solid setup for a dirt-heavy card like this one, where every single race goes over the main track.

The card leans heavily on claiming company across sprints and a couple of routes, but the back half steps up with an Allowance Optional Claiming in Race 8 and a straight Allowance in Race 9 — typically where you find the sharpest horses and the most telling form. More Than Grace draws our attention all the way from the top of the card as the race to circle.

Ten races, all dirt, one track. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint where the TrackWiz model separates a clear top tier from a muddling mid-pack — the key is whether the morning-line favorite can convert his gaudy rating into an actual victory.

win1We Miss NeilML 4/1

We Miss Neil tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62, a significant gap over the rest of this field, and that kind of separation in a claiming sprint is hard to ignore. Silvestre Gonzalez has the call, and his familiarity with this circuit gives the connections a tactical edge. The 4/1 morning line is fair value — this horse isn't being buried by the public, which means there's real money on his side. The low career win percentage (3%) is a flag, but the rating strength suggests he's been close and this may be the spot where it clicks.

place6Designed by SmartyML 5/1

Designed by Smarty comes in with a 77.39 rating and a 16% career win rate — two numbers that paint a picture of a horse who knows how to compete. Trainer Jorge Diaz puts him at 5/1, and Noel Herman is an active presence at Parx who keeps horses in position. The avg speed figure of 54 ties for the field's best, making him a natural to land a placing spot even if something else gets to the wire first.

show9Week's StrongML 5/2

Week's Strong might be a bit short in the morning line at 5/2 for this level, but J. Tyler Servis has the horse prepared and Frankie Pennington is a steady hand. A 76.10 TrackWiz rating is the third-best in the field, and in a claiming sprint, that kind of consistency tends to keep horses in the money even on off days. At odds, he's a reliable show anchor in any vertical exotic.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:07 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two standouts dominate the TrackWiz ratings in this 6½-furlong dirt claimer, but they're priced very differently — one is a hidden overlay, the other a rightful favorite, and pace could decide who's on top at the wire.

win6Bective AbbeyML 5/2

Bective Abbey draws the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 and does so at 5/2 morning line with Paco Lopez in the irons — one of the circuit's savvier jockeys. Trainer Louis C. Linder Jr. saddles a horse with an 11% career win rate that quietly understates how consistently competitive this runner has been. The avg speed figure of 52 matches the field median, so this figures to be a race decided by positioning and class rather than early gate speed. At 5/2, Bective Abbey isn't a steal but is genuinely the right horse to be on.

place3Craving CarbsML 3/1

Craving Carbs brings a 22% career win rate — best in the field — and a solid 83.59 rating, making this horse a legitimate threat to beat Bective Abbey outright. Trainer Michael V. Pino has a horse that knows how to win, and Mychel J. Sanchez is one of the busiest and most capable riders on the Parx grounds. At 3/1, the morning line actually makes this a near-chalky play, but the place ticket is where the real insurance lives.

show7California SmokeML 5/1

California Smoke rounds out the TrackWiz selections with a 67.10 rating and an 11% career win rate, and the 5/1 morning line offers decent exotic value. This horse actually posts the field's best avg speed figure at 53, suggesting there could be some early pace pressure coming from gate 7. Trainer Ernesto Padilla-Preciado has the horse spotted well, and Melvis Gonzalez can work the pace scenario to his advantage.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Our three free best bets today are spread across the early card, and there's a common thread worth noting: each of these sprints sets up as a relatively pace-honest affair on a surface that's been playing fair. We Miss Neil (Race 1, 4/1 morning line) kicks things off with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating in a 6½-furlong claiming field — a solid opening-act value. Bective Abbey (Race 2, 5/2) rates even higher at 87.81 and looks like one of the stronger figures on the entire free portion of the card.

The pick that really stands out in the free tier is Little Lance in Race 3 — a 2/1 morning-line favorite packing an 88.54 TrackWiz rating over 5½ furlongs. That's the highest-rated free pick on today's card, and at a distance that rewards early speed, the pace scenario sets up beautifully. If you're only following a few races today, Race 3 is the one to watch.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:34 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Little Lance looks like a wire-to-wire type in this tight 5½-furlong claiming sprint, but a pair of 9/2 and 6/1 horses with nearly identical ratings lurk just beneath — the favorite will need to earn it.

win5Little LanceML 2/1

Little Lance owns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.54 and is priced accordingly at 2/1 morning line, but the underlying numbers back up the favoritism. A 15% career win rate is solid for this level, and the avg speed figure of 54 ties three other horses — meaning the speed advantage comes from consistency, not a one-big-race outlier. Sebastian Orellana guides from gate 5, a clean enough break position for a sprint. Trainer Alfredo Velazquez has this horse in a race he can win.

place4Sophia's PrinceML 9/2

Sophia's Prince sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 78.93 and brings a strong 17% career win rate to the table — the second-highest in this field. Angel Castillo gets the mount and his partnership with trainer Trevor Gallimore at Parx is worth noting. At 9/2, you're getting some value on a horse whose number says he belongs right behind the favorite.

show3Chip's FriendML 6/1

Chip's Friend at 6/1 is quietly interesting as a show play, posting a 70.24 TrackWiz rating and a 12% career win rate in a very competitive spot. The avg speed figure of 53 is a notch above the field's lower half, and Stephen Hamilton is a competent conditioner at this level. Silvestre Gonzalez knows the Parx oval well, and at 6/1, this horse can cover the show slot in exotics without costing you much.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

2:01 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Chubasco Sauce looks like a serious overlay in this 6½-furlong claiming field — the TrackWiz model has him clearly on top, yet the morning line offers more than double what the favorite is getting.

win2Chubasco SauceML 6/1

Chubasco Sauce tops the TrackWiz model at 82.71 while sitting at 6/1 on the morning line — that gap between rating rank and odds is the definition of a value play. A 15% career win rate is strong for a claimer, and an avg speed figure of 53 is right in the heart of this competitive bunch. Eliseo Ruiz gets the call for trainer Ruperto A. Perez, a duo that has shown they can compete at Parx. If Chubasco Sauce fires his typical race, he should be right there at the wire.

place3PossumML 5/2

Possum comes in as the 5/2 morning-line choice with Paco Lopez aboard, and at 60.93, the TrackWiz rating trails Chubasco Sauce by more than 20 points — so the public price and the model disagree significantly. That said, a 10% career win rate is honest for a claimer, and Lopez has a way of keeping horses competitive on the front end. Possum should be capable of holding a place slot even if our top selection has his way.

show1Captain FancyML 3/1

Captain Fancy is the 3/1 morning-line co-favorite with Dexter Haddock in the irons, and trainer Jacinto Solis saddles a horse with a 9% career win rate. The avg speed figure of 54 ties the field's best, and in a 6½-furlong dirt sprint, early pace can set up a show finish for a horse with gate speed. He won't be a great price for exotic plays, but he gives structure to the ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

2:28 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Starlord sits atop the TrackWiz model by a commanding margin in this six-furlong claimer, but a pair of 5/1 shots with solid credentials make this a race worth spreading in the exotics.

win4StarlordML 2/1

Starlord posts an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — a full 20 points ahead of the next closest contender — in a field where that kind of separation tends to matter. Francisco Martinez picks up the mount for trainer Ronald B. Abrams, and the morning line of 2/1 reflects reasonable market respect. The avg speed figure of 54 ties three others in the field, so the edge here is consistency and overall form quality, not raw speed alone. This is the kind of setup where the model's top horse rolls.

place5Bourbon AficionadoML 5/1

Bourbon Aficionado brings an 11% career win rate and a 67.50 TrackWiz rating to the second spot, and the 5/1 morning line makes the place ticket genuinely appealing. Trainer Miguel Penaloza has Jean Aguilar up, and an avg speed figure of 54 keeps this horse firmly in the competitive conversation through the lane. As a place bet at 5/1, the expected value here is strong — he doesn't need to beat Starlord, just keep him honest.

show2One ImprobableML 5/1

One Improbable rounds out the TrackWiz selections with a 65.28 rating and a 14% career win rate that suggests reliability in competitive spots. Dalila A. Rivera gets the mount for trainer Miguel A. Rodriguez, and the avg speed figure of 53 is a tick below the top tier but not enough to get outclassed. At 5/1 on the morning line, this is a horse worth including on the bottom of exacta and trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

2:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite in this fillies and mares claimer isn't the TrackWiz top choice — Lady Catalina is the model's pick at 6/1 and could be the best value play on the card in race six.

win5Lady CatalinaML 6/1

Lady Catalina sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 while opening at 6/1 on the morning line — a significant disconnect that makes her our most compelling value play in this race. Trainer Michael V. Pino has a 4% career win rate on this horse, but the model sees something the market may be undervaluing. Bryan L. Torres takes the mount, and an avg speed figure of 53 keeps her right in the hunt on early pace. At 6/1, if the rating holds up, you're getting a fair-value winner at a price.

place8Sugar PrincessML 7/2

Sugar Princess at 7/2 is the second-best horse by TrackWiz rating at 77.52 and brings a 16% career win rate — by far the highest strike rate among the top horses in this field. Trainer Jorge Diaz saddles her with Yan Rodriguez up, and the avg speed figure of 52 is a tick back from the top group. She should be competitive deep into the stretch and is a natural place anchor for any exotic ticket.

show6Miss TifeyeML 2/1

Miss Tifeye is the 2/1 morning-line favorite but grades out third in our model at 73.82 — which actually makes her a slightly overbet choice to win but a reasonable show inclusion. Trainer Juan Carlos Guerrero has a horse with a 9% career win rate that has shown she can compete at this level. Noel Herman is up, and with an avg speed figure of 53 matching the field's top tier, she should be close enough to secure a placing.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

3:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile dirt claimer where two horses are separated from the pack in the TrackWiz model — Bonafide at 2/1 faces an interesting challenge from Imperial Spy at 6/1, and the pace shape over a longer route adds intrigue.

win1BonafideML 2/1

Bonafide tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.55 and draws Mychel J. Sanchez — one of the most reliable riders on the Parx circuit — for trainer Robert Mosco. A 14% career win rate is solid for a claimer stretching to a mile, and the 2/1 morning line tells you the market agrees with our assessment. The avg speed figure of 52 is honest for this distance and level, and Mosco-trained horses tend to be well-conditioned for mile routes. This feels like a race Bonafide is built to win.

place7Imperial SpyML 6/1

Imperial Spy is the value angle here at 6/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 — just a whisker below Bonafide and an enormous gap ahead of everyone else. Eliseo Ruiz gets the mount for Ruperto A. Perez, and a 9% career win rate at this level suggests consistent competitiveness without necessarily closing the deal. The avg speed figure of 53 is the highest in the field, which could play beautifully in a route where late pace typically matters. At 6/1, the place ticket on Imperial Spy is legitimate value.

show2SmallchangegeepML 6/1

Smallchangegeep at 6/1 rounds out the TrackWiz selections with a 68.89 rating and an 11% career win rate, making him a sneaky third contender in this field. Trainer Ilias Tapsas also saddles Carry Grant in this race, and having two runners can sometimes set up a pace scenario that benefits one of them. Bryan L. Torres takes the call, and for exotics on a 10-horse-equivalent deep race, the 6/1 show price is workable.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

3:49 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Spidey Man looks like a near-lock in this allowance optional claiming sprint — an elite 66% career win rate and a speed figure that towers over the field make this one of the most lopsided races on the card.

win3Spidey ManML 6/5

Spidey Man enters with a 66% career win rate — the highest on today's card by a wide margin — and a TrackWiz rating of 87.60 that clears this field comfortably. The avg speed figure of 56 is two ticks faster than the next-best in the race, and in a six-furlong dirt sprint, that kind of raw speed edge can be decisive. Trainer Jamie Ness puts Jaime Rodriguez up and opens him at 6/5 — rightfully short. Spidey Man is the kind of horse you build your ticket around, not fade.

place6RespighiML 5/1

Respighi is the most intriguing backup in this field — a 84.17 TrackWiz rating and an avg speed figure of 55 make him genuinely competitive with the favorite, even at a 10% career win rate that undersells his form. Trainer Hugo O. Padilla sends him out at 5/1 with Frankie Pennington aboard, and this horse could give Spidey Man a real run through the lane. For place and exacta purposes, Respighi at 5/1 is an excellent spot.

show2Parker BooneML 7/2

Parker Boone is a fascinating profile — a 50% career win rate in a short sample and a 7/2 morning line suggest the market has done its homework on this one. Trainer Marya K. Montoya has Mychel J. Sanchez up, and while the 55.83 TrackWiz rating trails the top two by a fair margin, the raw win percentage says this horse can compete in tighter spots than the model might suggest. A show ticket at 7/2 is honest value.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 9

4:16 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

More Than Grace looks like an overwhelming morning-line favorite in this allowance sprint, but a pair of honest runners at bigger prices give the exotics some genuine teeth.

win2More Than GraceML 6/5

More Than Grace leads the TrackWiz field at 89.71 — the highest single rating across all of today's races — and backs it up with a 42% career win rate that is simply dominant for an allowance field. Mychel J. Sanchez has the mount for Michael V. Pino, a trainer who has a strong presence at Parx, and an avg speed figure of 55 ties the field's best. At 6/5, the price is short, but this is one of those spots where fading the favorite because of odds is how you lose money. More Than Grace deserves to be the anchor of every exotic on the card.

place1Irish BanbaML 9/2

Irish Banba opens at 9/2 for trainer Jamie Ness, who also sends out today's Race 8 favorite — and Ness is the kind of conditioner who travels horses confidently when he expects a big effort. A 65.55 TrackWiz rating and an 11% career win rate in allowance company speak to a horse who competes but needs things to go right. Jaime Rodriguez rides, and the place ticket at 9/2 makes perfect sense as the value companion to the chalk.

show6Sister EveML 5/1

Sister Eve at 5/1 posts a 62.85 TrackWiz rating and a 16% career win rate — solid credentials for a horse who could easily finish third in a field where the top two are much clearer than the rest. Trainer John T. Kirby sends her out with Julio A. Hernandez, and an avg speed figure of 54 keeps her right in contention on early pace. She's a natural show anchor in trifectas, especially at a price that covers the spread.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 10

4:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A full ten-horse closing claimer where two horses separate clearly from the pack in the model, but both are at double-digit or near-double-digit odds — this is the race to dig into for big exotic payouts.

win5Disco RhodesML 5/1

Disco Rhodes is the TrackWiz top selection in Race 10 at 84.17 with a 25% career win rate — the kind of win percentage that says this horse actually closes the deal when he's on. Yan Rodriguez gets the mount for trainer Elliott Soto-Martinez, and the 5/1 morning line makes Disco Rhodes an overlay by model standards. The avg speed figure of 52 is solid, and in a full field of ten, having that kind of class edge at fair odds is where value is built. This is a best bet for the closer races of the day.

place3PasteroML 9/2

Pastero sits second in the model at 81.38 and opens at 9/2 with Dexter Haddock for trainer Scott A. Lake — a competent claiming barn that knows how to spot horses in the right spots. The avg speed figure of 53 is among the field's best, and a 5% career win rate understates how much pressure this horse has applied in competitive races. At 9/2, the place ticket is where the smart money lands if you want coverage behind the top selection.

show8StormbreakerML 5/1

Stormbreaker is the most eye-catching supporting stat in this field — a 37% career win rate on an avg speed figure of 53 tells you this horse has been a winner at this level before. Trainer Bobbi Anne Hawthorne sends him out at 5/1 with Angel Castillo, and while the 69.40 TrackWiz rating puts him third in the model, that win rate suggests he's capable of surging on the right day. For trifecta and superfecta players, Stormbreaker at 5/1 is the show anchor worth anchoring to.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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A clean, cool day at Parx, 10 races on the dirt, and some genuine opportunities from top to bottom. Little Lance is the free-tier standout, More Than Grace is our highest-rated pick on the card, and Disco Rhodes is the longshot worth a look in Race 10. Full pace breakdowns, exotic ticket structures, and premium picks are waiting for subscribers — head to TrackWiz Premium to unlock the complete card. Good luck out there today.

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