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Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — November 11, 2026

November 11, 20268 racesAll Mountaineer picks

Best bets at Mountaineer today

Race 12Itza KittyML 3/17:00 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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Itza Kitty is our free best bet on the night — an 87-rated turf miler in Race 1 going off at 3/1 morning line, backed by a jockey who's hit the board in 56% of rides over the past year and has back-to-back in-the-money finishes. That's the kind of consistent form you want to anchor your evening.

It's a crisp Veterans Day night at Mountaineer — 52°F under partly cloudy skies. The turf should be in good shape for the card's two grass races (Races 1 and 2), and the dirt strip gets a full workout with six more to follow. Eight races total, spread across claiming and allowance conditions, with distances ranging from a quick 2-furlong dirt sprint in Race 3 all the way out to a mile in Races 5 and 8.

What makes tonight interesting is the mix of sprint speed and route stamina tests running side by side, plus a couple of longshot angles worth exploring — including a 9/1 shot in Race 5 who leads our speed rankings. There's real meat on this card if you dig in.

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Race 1

7:00 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open 14-horse turf mile on the claiming ranks with no clear pace shape and a tight cluster of ratings at the top — the top three TrackWiz-rated horses are separated by fewer than five points, making this a prime exotics race where the right combo matters more than a single standout.

win2Itza KittyML 3/1

Itza Kitty sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 — the only horse in the field to crack the high 80s — and her consistency is the main selling point: she's hit the board in four of her last six races and in two straight, showing the kind of near-term form you want when the field is this chaotic. Jockey Deshawn L. Parker has a 19% win rate and hits the board in 56% of his starts over the past year, a solid partnership for a race this competitive. The one real knock here is a 10th-ranked recent speed figure (13.39 sec/furlong), which suggests she may not be the fastest horse on paper right now, so the form cycle and overall rating do a lot of the heavy lifting. She won roughly 17% of TrackWiz's 10,000 simulations — the highest share in the field — which underlines her as the most likely winner even if the morning line 3/1 offers modest value.

place12Blumoon FireML 3/2

Blumoon Fire comes in as the second-ranked horse (82.35 rating) with a strong local record — one win and placed in three of four races at Mountaineer — and the Luis Negron/Bernardini combo has combined at a 24% win rate with a 55% in-the-money clip over the past year. The main concern is a significant claiming price jump from $7,500 to $12,500, meaning connections are testing her at a new level, which introduces some uncertainty. At 3/2 morning line she's not a price, but the local form and elite jockey angle make her a logical piece in exacta and trifecta combinations.

show5Crafty LawyerML 6/1

Crafty Lawyer is a sneaky useful show play with the third-best TrackWiz rating in the race (82.28) and the most impressive in-the-money percentage of any top-rated horse here — she's cashed in 66% of her career starts, a remarkable consistency number. She also boasts the second-fastest recent speed figure in this field at 12.08 sec/furlong and has placed in four of her last six, showing steady form at a claiming level where most horses are streaky. The 6/1 morning line offers a touch of value relative to her credentials, and she's a natural show-ticket anchor in a race this spread out.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Itza Kitty17%
12Blumoon Fire17%
1Cole's Valentine14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

Race 1 is the one free look we're giving everyone tonight, and Itza Kitty earns that spotlight. The turf mile suits horses with a bit of class and tactical versatility — and while the run style is still being defined, the jockey's 19% win rate and 56% ITM clip over the past year tells you the connections know what they're doing. At 3/1, there's genuine value here rather than just a chalk play. Our TrackWiz simulation puts her at nearly a 17% win probability — right in line with the morning line — which means the market isn't undervaluing her either. Play her with confidence, but build your ticket wide enough to cover live threats in what shapes up as a wide-open field.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:25 PM EST

Allowance · 5 fur · Turf

An allowance sprint on the turf that looks like a two-horse battle at the top — Duncan Idaho has the class edge and an elite rating, but Kosher Cowboy's turf sprint form is legitimate — with a large field of aged horses rounding out what could be an honest pace scenario.

win1Duncan IdahoML 9/5

Duncan Idaho is the class of this field, plain and simple. He carries an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the best in the race — and an extraordinary 64% career win rate paired with an 89% in-the-money percentage, numbers that are almost unheard of in a claiming or allowance field at this level. The Bocachica/Runco combo has been on fire over the past year: Bocachica wins at 34% and the tandem together hits at 40% with a 75% in-the-money rate. He's placed in each of his last five races and won 23% of TrackWiz's simulations. The only flag worth noting is that he's six years old, which is typically past peak, but the form cycle says there's still plenty left in the tank.

place11Kosher CowboyML 2/1

Kosher Cowboy at 2/1 is the natural place horse here, and the turf sprint record backs it up: three wins and placed in five of seven races at exactly this five-furlong distance. He's hit the board in 12 consecutive races — yes, 12 straight — and has an 80% career in-the-money rate that speaks for itself. He's eight years old and his recent speed figures rank 9th in the field, which are legitimate concerns, but at this surface-distance combo he knows exactly what he's doing.

show9You Bet a FortuneML 4/1

You Bet a Fortune (4/1, third-ranked at 76.15) brings a compelling local track angle: six wins and placed in nine of eleven races at Mountaineer specifically, which is the kind of track-specific form that can pay dividends in a field full of horses without that edge. The Tapara/Bernardini combo has put together a 27% win rate with 68% in-the-money over the past year, one of the sharper connections in the race. He's won 14% of TrackWiz simulations, good for third in the field, making him a reasonable show play and a worthwhile component in trifecta tickets.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Duncan Idaho23%
11Kosher Cowboy17%
9You Bet a Fortune14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

7:50 PM EST

Claiming · 2 fur · Dirt

A short two-furlong sprint on dirt — a rare and volatile distance where early speed and dirt pedigree dominate — and Cash Customer and Where Ya At Vince have both the top ratings and the best raw speed in the field, setting up what could be a contested early battle that shapes the entire race.

win4Cash CustomerML 2/1

Cash Customer earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 and owns the fastest recent speed figure on the board at 11.12 sec/furlong — that combination of overall quality and pure early burst is exactly what you want at two furlongs. His dirt record is a career highlight: 13 wins and placed in 29 of 35 dirt starts, a 78% in-the-money rate on the surface that matters today. Jockey Ricardo Barrios has hit the board in 47% of his starts over the past year. He's also carrying a claiming price bump from $5,000 to $7,500, but Cash Customer's sim win percentage of nearly 27% — tops in this race — suggests the class jump doesn't scare the model at all.

place5Where Ya At VinceML 3/1

Where Ya At Vince slots in as the second-best horse in the field (84.94 rating) with the second-fastest recent speed figure at 11.54 sec/furlong, and his dirt record is formidable — seven wins in 14 dirt starts with a 62% in-the-money rate. He's also placed in each of his last four races, showing in-form consistency that's hard to dismiss. At 3/1 on the morning line and with 22% sim wins, he's a natural exacta play underneath Cash Customer.

show1Remys GunsmokeML 7/1

Remys Gunsmoke at 7/1 is a solid show-ticket addition with a third-best speed figure in the field (11.88 sec/furlong) and legitimate recent form — placed in five of his last six races and in each of the last five. His TrackWiz rating of 67.17 ranks third in the field, and while the claiming price jump from $4,000 to $7,500 is a real concern, the consistency of his recent finishes suggests he's in a good spot right now. At the morning line price, he adds some exotic value to trifecta combinations without breaking the ticket budget.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Cash Customer27%
5Where Ya At Vince22%
8French Onion16%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 4

8:15 PM EST

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Gottagetitback is the clear class standout in this five-furlong dirt claimer — a nearly 25-point rating gap over most of the field gives this one a chalk look, but the 11-horse field and multiple legitimate speed figures could force some pace pressure that makes the exotics interesting.

win10GottagetitbackML 2/1

Gottagetitback is the top-rated horse in the race at 88.54 and owns the fastest recent speed figure at 12.03 sec/furlong, a combination that makes him the class and speed of the field simultaneously. His dirt record is extensive and successful: 10 wins and placed in 27 of 44 dirt starts, and the Leon/Silva combo has a 23% win rate and 59% in-the-money rate over the past year. He ran away with nearly 30% of TrackWiz's 10,000 simulations — the highest share in the field by a comfortable margin. The only real knock is his age (eight years old), but the form hasn't dropped off based on what's in front of us.

place1Alfie SolomonsML 6/1

Alfie Solomons has the second-best TrackWiz rating in the race at 75.58 and brings a deep, consistent dirt record of six wins placed in 26 of 39 dirt starts — that's a 67% in-the-money rate on the surface we're running on today. He's also placed in each of his last four races and owns the third-fastest recent speed figure at 12.39 sec/furlong, so the form is current. At 6/1 on the morning line, he offers real value in exacta boxes underneath the heavy favorite.

show3Mr NegativityML 3/1

Mr Negativity brings the second-fastest speed figure in the race (12.34 sec/furlong) and a 3/1 morning line that makes him the second choice — but his TrackWiz rating of 64.58 ranks only third, which is worth noting. The class drop from $5,000 to $4,000 is a positive, suggesting connections are placing him carefully to find a spot he can hit the board in. At the moderate morning line price, he's a natural show play and a reasonable piece in multi-horse trifecta tickets behind the top two.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

10Gottagetitback30%
3Mr Negativity15%
1Alfie Solomons14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 5

8:40 PM EST

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile Starter Optional Claiming on dirt that's shaping up as a wide-open affair — the top TrackWiz rating belongs to Goose Hunter but the morning line shows him as a 9/1 overlay, while the 2/1 morning line favorite McMoney ranks only fifth in the model, creating a genuine disconnect between oddsmakers and our ratings.

win5Goose HunterML 9/1

Goose Hunter tops the TrackWiz ratings at 78.33 despite being listed at 9/1 on the morning line — that's a significant value gap worth attacking. He owns the fastest recent speed figure in this field at 12.25 sec/furlong and a solid dirt record of six wins and placed in 21 of 37 dirt starts. Jockey Erik Barbaran is running hot, posting a 24% win rate with 66% in-the-money over the past year, one of the better riding statistics in this field. He won 16% of TrackWiz simulations, ranking second in the race, and while he's six years old, the speed figure and rating argue the talent is still there at a price that more than compensates for the age flag.

place2Winter's GhostML 6/1

Winter's Ghost earns the second-best TrackWiz rating in the race (65.32) and brings a deep dirt resume — 11 wins and placed in 29 of 52 dirt starts, with current form backing it up: she's hit the board in each of her last three races. Jockey Deshawn L. Parker has a 19% win rate and 56% in-the-money rate over the past year, and the Parker/Bernardini combination is one of the stronger tandems in this field. At 6/1 morning line, she projects as one of the better-priced place plays on the card.

show10Tojo's MojoML 12/1

Tojo's Mojo (12/1, third-ranked at 63.22) gives you jockey Luis Negron at the helm — Negron has a 24% win rate and 55% in-the-money rate over the past year — and the horse owns the third-fastest speed figure in the race at 12.74 sec/furlong. The Negron/Vazquez combo has been productive together, posting a 24% win rate and 57% in-the-money rate, which is an underrated angle in a field this open. At 12/1, he's a live longshot-to-show play that adds real value to trifecta tickets.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Goose Hunter16%
8McMoney16%
2Winter's Ghost15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

9:05 PM EST

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Spatula is the dominant top-rated horse in this four-and-a-half furlong dirt claimer — an 86.35 TrackWiz rating that towers over the second choice — but I've Had Enough's blazing recent speed number and a couple of class drops in the field make the exotics worth exploring.

win4SpatulaML 7/2

Spatula is the standout in this race with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating that's nearly 20 points clear of the third-ranked horse, and her consistency on dirt is real: placed in 11 of 17 dirt starts with a 61% career in-the-money rate. She's also placed in each of her last two races, showing current form, and trainer Eddie Clouston carries an A- grade. Her sim win percentage of nearly 27% — highest in this field — reinforces her as the logical play. The main question is a relatively modest recent speed figure ranked third in the field, but the overall profile more than compensates.

place7I've Had EnoughML 6/1

I've Had Enough brings the best recent speed figure in this race at 12.21 sec/furlong and a 33% career win rate — both of which stand out in a claiming field at this level. The class drop from $6,250 to $4,000 is a meaningful positive angle, suggesting connections are putting her in a spot where she can compete at the front of the pace scenario. Jockey Ricardo Barrios has an 18% win rate and 47% in-the-money rate over the past year, and at 6/1 on the morning line, she's a solid place play with upside.

show8Friendly LucyML 2/1

Friendly Lucy carries the second-best recent speed figure in the race (12.75 sec/furlong) and a 2/1 morning line that makes her the second choice despite only a third-ranked TrackWiz rating of 64.81. She won nearly 20% of TrackWiz simulations, which is second in the field, so the model sees her as a legitimate threat even if the rating doesn't scream class. The age concern (seven years old) is worth noting, but her speed number is current and real, making her a reasonable show play to cap the trifecta.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Spatula27%
8Friendly Lucy20%
7I've Had Enough17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

9:30 PM EST

Allowance · 5 fur · Dirt

A Single Glance looks like a class standout in this five-furlong dirt allowance — a perfect 100% in-the-money career rate is extraordinary regardless of sample size — but the morning line favorite Wishful Thoughts and multiple other horses keep this from being a walkover, especially in a nine-horse field.

win3A Single GlanceML 7/2

A Single Glance tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 with a stat that jumps off the page: a 100% in-the-money career rate across all starts on record. She's also placed in each of her last three races, showing consistent current form, and owns the fastest recent speed figure in this field at 12.36 sec/furlong — meaning she's both the top-rated horse and the speediest in recent outings. She won nearly 28% of TrackWiz's 10,000 simulations, the highest share in the race. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's modest value here given the overall profile.

place5Wishful ThoughtsML 2/1

Wishful Thoughts is the morning line favorite at 2/1 despite ranking only second on the TrackWiz scale (56.52 rating), but the jockey angle is hard to dismiss — Erik Barbaran has a 24% win rate and an outstanding 66% in-the-money rate over the past year, and he appears on today's Top 50 Jockeys list. She won 17% of TrackWiz simulations, good for second in the field. The concern worth flagging is that she's notably older than the field average, so pace and trip will matter more than it might with a younger horse.

show8Arapaho NationML 3/1

Arapaho Nation at 3/1 ranks third in TrackWiz ratings (55.93) and owns the third-fastest recent speed figure at 12.89 sec/furlong, suggesting she can be competitive early in this sprint distance. Her jockey, Agustin Bracho, carries an A- grade which is a solid connection. She won nearly 15% of TrackWiz simulations, ranking third in the field, making her the natural third horse in a trifecta underneath the top two picks.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

3A Single Glance28%
5Wishful Thoughts17%
8Arapaho Nation15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 8

9:55 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Mr. Colossal brings elite TrackWiz ratings into a one-mile dirt claimer that looks far more competitive than a typical chalk race — Souper Justified and Gun Policy both offer legitimate threats, and the 12-horse field includes enough in-form horses to make trifecta exotic play very attractive.

win12Mr. ColossalML 9/5

Mr. Colossal sits atop the field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and brings the second-fastest recent speed figure in the race at 12.59 sec/furlong — the combination of top rating and elite recent form is exactly what the model loves. The Leon/Silva trainer-jockey combo has a 23% win rate and 59% in-the-money rate over the past year, one of the stronger connections in this field. He's placed in nine of 16 dirt starts, showing surface comfort, and won nearly 23% of TrackWiz simulations — highest in the race. At 9/5 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but the credentials justify favorites-window play.

place3Souper JustifiedML 3/1

Souper Justified ranks second in TrackWiz ratings at 79.26 and brings a 17% jockey win rate from Andrew Ramgeet, who hits the board 57% of the time — consistent, reliable numbers for a place play. The Ramgeet/Ramgeet (jockey/trainer) combo has an 18% win rate and 58% in-the-money rate, making this a family operation that works. She's placed in 10 of 17 dirt starts and won 17% of simulations, ranking second in the field. The concern is a 12th-ranked recent speed figure (14.50 sec/furlong), which is a legitimate worry in a one-mile dirt race where early pace sets the table — but the overall rating argues she can still hit the board.

show8Gun PolicyML 2/1

Gun Policy owns the fastest recent speed figure in the entire field at 12.54 sec/furlong, which is a meaningful advantage in a one-mile dirt race where setting or tracking early pace is crucial. He ranks third in TrackWiz ratings at 74.85, and the class drop from $6,250 to $4,000 is a clear positive angle — connections are putting him in a spot where he should be comfortable. At 2/1 on the morning line, he may be overpriced relative to his rating rank, but the speed figure and class drop make him a natural piece in trifecta combinations and a defensible show play.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

12Mr. Colossal23%
8Gun Policy17%
3Souper Justified17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

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Bottom line tonight: Itza Kitty in the Race 1 turf mile is the free play you don't want to miss at 3/1. Beyond that, this is an eight-race card with legitimate angles from top to bottom — Cash Customer's blazing speed figures in Race 3, a 9/1 longshot worth a look in Race 5, and a 40% win-rate jockey-trainer combo powering Race 2's top pick. The full breakdown on all of it is available to subscribers — check out TrackWiz Premium and make tonight count.

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