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Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — October 25, 2026

October 25, 20268 racesAll Mountaineer picks

Best bets at Mountaineer, October 25, 2026

Race 13HayamiML 3/17:00 PM EDT

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Sunday night racing at Mountaineer Park, and we've got an 8-race card kicking off under partly cloudy skies with temperatures sitting at a crisp 56°F. That cool autumn air can tighten up horses who prefer warmer conditions, but it's the kind of night where a fit, consistent runner finds a clean trip and gets the job done.

The card opens with a pair of turf tests — a Maiden Special Weight mile and a 7-furlong Claiming sprint — before shifting to the main track for the bulk of the evening. With a mix of maiden, claiming, allowance, and Starter Optional company, there's something for every betting style tonight, from single-race win bets to multi-race exotics.

TrackWiz analysis has strong opinions across all 8 races. Three are unlocked for everyone — including some of the most straightforward plays on the card. The final five go deeper into pace scenarios and form cycles that are where the real money lives on a night like this.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden special weight on the turf mile with a field full of first-timers — TrackWiz ratings spread across 60 points, signaling there's a clear class edge at the top but plenty of chaos underneath.

win3HayamiML 3/1

Hayami draws the eye immediately with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — the highest in the field by a comfortable margin — and trainer Eric R. Reed has a reputation for arriving with turf maidens ready to fire first out. The morning line of 3/1 is fair for a horse this well-regarded, but the rating gap over the second-best horse (Smart Little Lass at 65.86) is the kind of separation that doesn't show up often in maiden fields. Jockey Charle Oliveros gets the call and should be able to find a comfortable spot over a mile on grass. This is our best bet in the race.

place10Smart Little LassML 7/1

Smart Little Lass comes in with the second-best TrackWiz rating at 65.86 and is trained by Stephani Norris, who clearly has her pointed for a sharp debut. At 7/1 on the morning line, there's genuine place value here if Hayami handles the favorite's role cleanly — Smart Little Lass looks like the most logical secondary threat in the field.

show5Working On ItML 2/1

Working On It posts a 64.25 TrackWiz rating and matches the field's top average speed figure at 53, giving trainer Timothy M. Collins a horse that profiles as competitive in a pace scenario. At 2/1 on the morning line, the show price won't be exciting, but the underlying numbers suggest a reliable finish in the top three for exotic players needing a solid anchor.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

This turf claiming sprint at seven furlongs pits a clear TrackWiz top-rated runner against two high-figure closers — the pace scenario will be everything, and there's legitimate show value hiding at double-digit odds.

win10Clay SoldierML 2/1

Clay Soldier leads all horses with an 84.45 TrackWiz rating and the field's highest average speed figure at 57 — that's a meaningful edge in a claiming field. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini sends him out at 2/1 with Brandon Tapara in the irons, a pairing that suggests confidence. A 14% career win rate is modest, but on the grass at seven furlongs, the speed figure advantage could be decisive if the pace sets up honestly.

place6New Age Bad GirlML 6/1

New Age Bad Girl is right there at 82.65 — just 1.8 points behind the top pick — and posts a 55 average speed figure with a 19% career win rate. Trainer Shane Meyers is dangerous in this spot, and at 6/1 on the morning line, this is a genuine place value play. Erik Barbaran knows this horse, and a wide-open pace could see her hitting the line with energy.

show4EverheartML 9/1

Everheart comes in at a 78.33 TrackWiz rating and represents a sneaky show option at 9/1. The 53 average speed figure is middle of the pack, but the rating itself says there's more underneath — trainer Juan C. Vazquez places horses selectively, and Luis Negron is a capable hand to navigate a big field on turf. Exotic players should have Everheart underneath.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

The opening three races give us plenty to work with right out of the gate. Hayami (R1, 3/1 morning line) earns our top TrackWiz rating among the MSW turf milers, while Clay Soldier (R2, 2/1) looks well-positioned in the 7-furlong turf claiming sprint. On the main track, Finn d'Oro (R3, 2/1) posts the highest TrackWiz rating of the three free races at 88.54 — a number that demands attention in a maiden claiming sprint where raw ability often separates contenders in the early furlongs.

The common thread through these three? Each figures to be on or near the early pace given the distance and surface setup, and on a cool night at Mountaineer, early speed has historically held well when the track is sealed and consistent. These are the kinds of plays where going with the TrackWiz number over the crowd noise tends to pay off.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

7:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The maiden claiming sprint on dirt is headlined by a dominant TrackWiz rating at the top but features two closely matched challengers who could make this a tighter finish than the morning line suggests.

win9Finn d'OroML 2/1

Finn d'Oro is the clear standout with a 88.54 TrackWiz rating — highest in the field — and posts the strongest average speed figure at 52 among the top contenders. Bailey Weatherly rides for trainer Robert S. Scallan, and the 2/1 morning line reflects exactly where this horse belongs in the market. In a maiden claiming sprint, a 20-point rating gap over most of the field is the kind of edge that holds up in these shorter distances.

place10Clare's CauseML 3/1

Clare's Cause shows a 65.74 TrackWiz rating and is the second-best figure in the race, giving trainer Crystal Richison a legitimate challenger to the top pick. Kevin Gonzalez has been active at this meet, and the 3/1 morning line keeps the place price respectable. This is the horse to include alongside Finn d'Oro in exacta tickets.

show8Watch the LawML 7/1

Watch the Law stands out from the rest of the secondary contenders with a 65.72 rating virtually matching Clare's Cause — and importantly, sports the field's highest average speed figure at 55. Trainer Pavel Matejka sends out Orlando Bocachica at 7/1 on the morning line, and that speed figure suggests a horse that could press the issue and still have enough to hold third. A solid show option in what looks like a three-horse race at the top.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 4

8:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The mile claiming race on dirt features a morning-line favorite who may be overbet, while a bigger price with the top TrackWiz number offers genuine win value — this is a race built for a value play.

win9He's a DaredevilML 7/1

He's a Daredevil tops the field with an 81.25 TrackWiz rating while sitting at 7/1 on the morning line — that's exactly the kind of overlay our analysis targets. Trainer Juan C. Vazquez places horses with purpose, and Jefferson Skerrett gives this a capable pilot at a one-mile trip on dirt. A 7% career win rate is low, but the rating towers over most of this field, and value like this in a claiming mile doesn't come around often.

place4ArticleML 2/1

Article carries a 76.6 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 53, making her the second-best number in the race. Trainer Kathleen A. Guciardo sends her out at 2/1 with Luis Alberto Batista aboard — a sharp combination — and the place market should pay decent given the favorite positioning. In a nine-horse field at a mile, this is the horse most likely to be near the front when it matters.

show1Mr. ImpatientML 3/1

Mr. Impatient posts a 69.63 TrackWiz rating at 3/1 on the morning line, a reasonable number for a horse who gives trainer Jay P. Bernardini another live contender in this spot. Luis Negron has the mount, and the 52 average speed figure is consistent with horses that grind out a piece at a mile on dirt. Solid anchor for show bets and exacta wheels.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

8:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A full field of twelve in this dirt claiming sprint creates a contentious pace scenario, but TrackWiz numbers carve out a clear top tier — the trick is whether the chalk can hold off two horses with nearly equivalent ratings.

win10Lady HamiltonML 2/1

Lady Hamilton shares the single highest TrackWiz rating in today's entire card at 88.54 and backs it up with a 55 average speed figure — the best in this field. A 14% career win rate might seem modest, but in a full field claiming sprint, class and raw ability tend to win out, and trainer Leland Hayes has this filly pointed correctly. Deshawn L. Parker gets the call, and at 2/1, the morning line respects what our numbers show.

place11Smart With HeartML 7/2

Smart With Heart comes in right behind at 76.57 with a 54 average speed figure and a 7% career win rate — numbers that suggest a horse who runs consistently without always closing the deal. Trainer Edgar Espinoza and jockey Luis Alberto Batista are a solid combination at this level, and the 7/2 morning line makes the place value here genuinely appealing if Lady Hamilton handles the favorite role.

show7Save the FlagML 3/1

Save the Flag posts a 75.74 TrackWiz rating and shows a 12% career win rate in what shapes up as a competitive spot. Trainer Jeff W. Zook sends him out at 3/1, and Kevin Gonzalez — who has multiple mounts on the card — keeps this horse in the conversation through the lane. In a twelve-horse field, three horses this tightly rated at the top sets up nicely for a trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 6

9:05 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

The allowance mile on dirt looks like a two-horse race at the top of the TrackWiz ratings, but a mid-range cluster with solid career win percentages keeps things honest and could complicate the exacta picture.

win9Calling On HeavenML 3/1

Calling On Heaven dominates with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — the highest win percentage in this field by a significant margin. Trainer Shane Meyers sends out jockey Jose A. Bracho at 3/1 on the morning line, and a 54 average speed figure at the allowance level says this horse belongs in this spot and then some. A one-in-four career win rate at any level is a serious pedigree for a horse going in a race this competitive.

place3Blake JamesML 7/1

Blake James shows a 74.2 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate, pairing well with trainer Shane Meyers — the same barn as the top pick, which signals a stable in good form. Erik Barbaran rides, and the 55 average speed figure matches the field's top tier. At 7/1 on the morning line, Blake James offers genuine place value and is worth including in exactas back to the top.

show5MitochondriaML 7/2

Mitochondria carries a 65.21 TrackWiz rating and a standout 20% career win rate, the second-highest among contenders. Trainer Anthony Stephen puts Deshawn L. Parker up at 7/2 on the morning line, and while the 53 average speed figure is mid-range, the career win percentage tells you this horse knows how to finish. A reliable show option and a logical third piece in the trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

9:30 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

The five-furlong starter optional claiming sprint features two horses with nearly identical top TrackWiz ratings but starkly different career win profiles — the pace will be hot early in a short field, and the winner likely comes from the top pair.

win5Mornin' BossML 3/1

Mornin' Boss checks in with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — tied for the top spot — and backs it up with a 55 average speed figure, the best in this race. The 27% career win rate is strong, and trainer Eddie Clouston clearly has this horse conditioned for a five-furlong sprint. Luis Alberto Batista gets the call at 3/1, and with raw ability this high in a short field, this is our top selection in Race 7.

place2Bien FresaML 2/1

Bien Fresa is right behind at 86.59 with a remarkable 42% career win rate — the highest of any horse in today's entire card. Trainer Eric R. Reed and jockey Charle Oliveros form a live combination, and at 2/1, Bien Fresa actually offers more historical winning consistency than the top pick. A horse who wins 42% of the time is going to be near the top no matter the pace scenario.

show4Girl ByeML 6/1

Girl Bye scores a 68.03 TrackWiz rating at 6/1 on the morning line, a significant jump down from the top pair but a reasonable number in a thin field. Trainer Jeff Fletcher sends Yuri Yaranga up, and while the 12% career win rate suggests she's not a habitual winner, in a short sprint where the two heavy guns might burn each other up, Girl Bye could be first in line to pick up the pieces. Worth including in the show and exacta plays as a hedge.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

9:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The closing mile on dirt is the deepest field of the night at fourteen runners — the top TrackWiz number sits well clear of the morning-line favorite, and there's a genuine longshot lurking at a price that makes the trifecta interesting.

win10AmbulanteML 3/1

Ambulante leads all horses with an 82.2 TrackWiz rating despite going off at 3/1 on the morning line — a number that might be tighter than it looks given this is the best figure in a fourteen-horse field. Trainer Horacio Barbaran sends out Francisco Garcia, and while the 11% career win rate is unspectacular, in a field this large, raw quality tends to assert itself over a mile. Our analysis firmly puts Ambulante on top.

place13Mr HooverML 7/2

Mr Hoover comes in second on the TrackWiz board at 73.34 with a 14% career win rate and a 7/2 morning line. Trainer Robert S. Scallan gives Maikol Vilchez the mount, and in a long field where chaos is almost guaranteed, a horse with this kind of figure is ideally suited to grab a piece. The 50 average speed figure suggests he conserves energy early — that patient style can be an asset in a mile race with fourteen horses jostling for position.

show5Nay's Only OneML 20/1

Nay's Only One is the most intriguing show play on the card — a 62.29 TrackWiz rating combined with a 20% career win rate, all at a 20/1 morning line. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini has live horses in multiple races today, and Brandon Tapara gets the call here. That career win rate at a 20/1 price is a major disconnect — horses who win one in five starts don't belong at that price, and show bettors and trifecta players should take notice of this spot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

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Eight races, crisp autumn air, and a card loaded with playable spots from the turf openers all the way through the nightcap. Our top free plays — Hayami, Clay Soldier, and Finn d'Oro — give every reader a strong starting point, but the real edge tonight is in the premium races where pace scenarios and longshot angles like He's a Daredevil at 7/1 are waiting to be exploited. Subscribers get the full picture. Good luck at the windows tonight.

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