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Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — October 20, 2026

October 20, 20268 racesAll Mountaineer picks

Mountaineer kicks off Tuesday night under clear skies with a crisp 56°F at post time — the kind of autumn evening that can tighten up times on a firm turf course and keep the dirt playing honest. Eight races are on the board, and the card is packed with claiming action bookended by a pair of turf sprints and a route to close.

Tonight's mix is interesting: we've got two turf races to open the card, five straight dirt contests through the meat of the evening, and a closing 6-furlong dirt claimer to send everyone home. That surface variety means pace scenarios and trip dynamics are going to shift dramatically from race to race — so sequencing your attention (and your bankroll) matters.

TrackWiz analysis flagged some compelling plays across the card, including a legitimate longshot angle in Race 1 and a pair of morning-line co-favorites on dirt that our ratings say are priced almost exactly right. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open 14-horse turf mile that hides a massive overlay at the top of the TrackWiz ratings — the morning line underestimates the field's true complexity with multiple live longshots lurking.

win4My Two Aunt JoansML 9/1

My Two Aunt Joans earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 78.33, a significant gap over the next-best contenders, and does so going off at a juicy 9/1 on the morning line. That kind of ratings-to-odds disconnect is exactly the overlay we look for. Her 18% career win rate is solid in a field where most rivals check in at 14-17%, and trainer Alysha Robillard sends her out to Norberto Arroyo, Jr. — a capable hand in turf routes. With a one-mile distance that rewards tactical runners, this is our primary value play of the opener.

place10Maxwell EsquireML 2/1

Maxwell Esquire is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and backs it up with the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 67.65. He and trainer Jay P. Bernardini are a familiar partnership here at Mountaineer, and with an average speed figure of 54 — tied for best in the field — he's got the raw ability to compete wire to wire. At 2/1, the win price won't excite, but he's a strong place-ticket anchor.

show5KhozandoML 3/1

Khozando checks in with a 62.98 rating and a 20% career win rate — one of the better conversion marks in this field. Trainer Jeff Fletcher has him at 3/1 on the morning line, which reflects legitimate respect from the oddsmakers. His average speed figure of 52 is middle of the pack, but that win percentage suggests he shows up when it counts, making him a reliable show-ticket inclusion in a wide-open race.

Race 2

11:25 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A maiden claiming turf sprint where every horse is still looking for their first win, but the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear two-horse class edge at the top — this may be less chaotic than the maiden tag suggests.

win10Kayleigh's KittenML 3/1

Kayleigh's Kitten owns the top TrackWiz rating in this maiden field at an impressive 87.08, a substantial edge over her rivals. Sent out by trainer Jeffrey D. Jackson and ridden by Yuri Yaranga, she sports an average speed figure of 54 — tied for best in the race — and is co-second choice on the morning line at 3/1, representing real value for a horse the model loves this much. In maiden claimers on the turf, a rating gap this wide at the top doesn't come around often — she's our confident top selection.

place11ZettieML 3/1

Zettie comes in as the other 3/1 co-choice and validates that morning-line respect with a 76.70 TrackWiz rating, second-best in the field. Trainer Alice Beckman sends her out with Brooke Bays aboard, and her average speed of 54 matches the top horses in this sprint. As a place play, she offers solid security — if Kayleigh's Kitten gets loose on the front end, Zettie profiles as the most likely horse to track her down.

show2Offthe Beaten PathML 6/1

Offthe Beaten Path is worth including in show tickets at 6/1 morning line — her TrackWiz rating of 71.04 is the third-best in the field and she has the backing of trainer Eric R. Reed, who knows how to place a horse. Her average speed of 52 is a tick below the top pair, but in a maiden turf sprint where pace can get messy, closers with her kind of rating often sneak into the exotics. A nice value add at the price.

Race 3

11:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Cascabel looms as a dominant force in this dirt sprint, sporting a class-best rating that dwarfs the field — but the real intrigue is in the show slot, where a 20/1 shot with surprising metrics makes the exotics interesting.

win4CascabelML 2/1

Cascabel is the standout of this eight-horse field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — a full 18 points clear of the next horse — and a 20% career win rate to back it up. Jose A. Leon rides for trainer Juan Pablo Silva, a barn that clearly has this horse primed. The average speed figure of 54 is tied for best in the race, and at 2/1 on the morning line, the public has already caught on. Sometimes the obvious play is the right play, and this looks like one of those spots.

place1Train and TrustML 7/2

Train and Trust brings a 70.15 rating and draws the rail post, which can be a factor in a 5½-furlong dirt sprint — getting a clean break matters here. Trainer Lorenzo Juarez sends him out at 7/2 morning line, and with a 12% career win rate in what shapes up as a two-horse race at the top, he's the logical place ticket. His average speed of 53 slots him right behind the top pair, giving him a realistic shot to fill the exacta.

show6Remys GunsmokeML 20/1

Remys Gunsmoke is the longshot angle in the show spot at 20/1 morning line, and here's the case: a TrackWiz rating of 57.49 that actually ranks fifth in the field isn't flashy, but it's real. Trainer Gabe Shafer keeps him competitive, and Yuri Yaranga takes the mount. In a six-horse scenario where Cascabel gobbles up most of the action, overlaid horses like Remys Gunsmoke at 20/1 can quietly hit the board and pay handsomely in trifectas.

The first three races are open to all readers, and they tell a nice story. Race 1 on the turf mile is where we're swinging for value — My Two Aunt Joans opens at 9/1 on the morning line but carries a TrackWiz rating of 78.33 that suggests she's live at that price. In a wide-open turf claimer, overlays like this are exactly what you want to be on. Race 2 stays on the grass for a 7-furlong maiden claimer, where Kayleigh's Kitten (3/1, 87.08 rating) is our strongest-rated free pick of the night — that rating is elite for a maiden field. Then we move to dirt for a short 5½-furlong sprint in Race 3, where Cascabel (2/1, 88.54) looks like the class of the field and rates as our highest-confidence free selection.

One angle connecting all three: the early turf races should reward horses that can rate close to the pace on a cool, potentially quick surface, while the dirt sprint in Race 3 figures to be a front-speed battle. If Cascabel can control things from the break, this one could be academic by the top of the stretch.

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Race 4

12:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses — Golden Cookie and Mr Business — are separated from the rest of this six-furlong dirt field by a significant class gap, setting up what could be a compelling top-two battle with a legitimate third wheel lurking.

win7Golden CookieML 2/1

Golden Cookie leads all horses in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 and backs that up with the highest average speed figure in the race at 55 — a clear edge in a six-furlong dirt test where raw speed matters. Trainer Krista Nicole Hetrick sends her out with Deshawn L. Parker in the irons, and at 2/1 morning line, the public has identified her correctly as the one to beat. Her 13% career win rate is modest, but the underlying numbers suggest she's been better than that record indicates — and today's spot may be the right fit.

place4Mr BusinessML 7/2

Mr Business slots in with the second-highest rating in the field at 83.25 and a best average speed of 54, making him the clear second choice in both the model and the morning line at 7/2. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini saddles him alongside stablemate Tactics, a sign the barn has multiple strings to its bow today. Brandon Tapara rides, and in a pace scenario where Golden Cookie may set the table up front, Mr Business could be sitting just off the pace ready to pounce for the place.

show8Southern BulletML 3/1

Southern Bullet rounds out the top three with an 80.88 TrackWiz rating — a tight cluster with the top pair that makes the trifecta look very playable. Trainer Juan C. Vazquez sends him out at 3/1 morning line with Miguel L. Martinez aboard, and his 13% career win rate mirrors the top two in this field. If the pace collapses between the favorites, Southern Bullet is well-positioned to collect a check.

Race 5

12:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short 4½-furlong dirt sprint that could be over before it starts — Spatula sits atop a deep TrackWiz rating list, but a sneaky value play at 9/1 makes the exacta and trifecta very interesting.

win4SpatulaML 2/1

Spatula earns the top TrackWiz rating in this sprint at 88.06, edging the field by a clear margin. Trainer Eddie Clouston gets Elijah Greenidge aboard for a race at 2/1 morning line, and while average speed data isn't available for this horse, the model's confidence is unmistakable. At 4½ furlongs, early speed and gate presence are paramount — Spatula's rating edge suggests she has the raw talent to break sharp and never look back. This is a case where the numbers demand respect.

place9Power PartyML 9/1

Power Party is the value play here at 9/1 morning line with a solid 78.33 TrackWiz rating — identical to the same mark that makes My Two Aunt Joans our Race 1 win selection, so we know what this number is capable of. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva puts Jose A. Leon up, a combination that's shown well in sprints. With a 9% career win rate, Power Party doesn't win often, but the rating says she's better than her record, and the 9/1 price makes her a must-use in the trifecta.

show3Perfect PinkML 3/1

Perfect Pink checks in at 3/1 morning line with a 75.12 TrackWiz rating and the second-best average speed in the race at 55 — that's legitimate early speed for a 4½-furlong dash. Trainer James Alessi gives Rishawn Blanche the call, and while a 9% career win rate isn't eye-popping, Perfect Pink's pure speed number suggests she can hang near the front end and earn a share. A natural show play in this short sprint.

Race 6

1:05 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden claiming mile on dirt where two horses stand well above the rest — Briarcliff leads the TrackWiz ratings by a wide margin over Big Notion, creating a clear top-two with a class-separated third wheel for the exotic mix.

win7BriarcliffML 7/2

Briarcliff is the most compelling maiden in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35, a full 12 points better than the next horse. Trainer Tina Ramgeet sends him out with Andrew R. Ramgeet in the irons — a family barn that knows this horse better than anyone. Offered at 7/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse the model likes this much in a maiden claiming route. Average speed of 52 is solid for the class level, and in a field of first-time winners-in-waiting, that edge in the ratings can be decisive.

place1Big NotionML 2/1

Big Notion is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a 74.00 TrackWiz rating — strong, but still 12 points behind Briarcliff. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva uses his own son Juan Pablo Silva, Jr. as the jockey here, a confident move that signals this horse is fit and ready. An average speed of 53 is respectable for a maiden dirt route, and in a field lacking any proven winner, Big Notion's pedigree of solid figures makes him a sturdy place ticket behind the top selection.

show5PrincipoteML 3/1

Principote comes in at 3/1 morning line with a 66.05 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field and a meaningful class edge over the lower half of the draw. Trainer Carlos A. Lopez gives Renzo Diaz the call, and at 52 average speed over a one-mile route, Principote has enough stamina profile to be running late. If the two favorites duel each other into the ground, Principote could be the fresh horse that scoops up the show spot.

Race 7

1:30 AM EDT

Allowance · 5 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint that looks like a two-horse race on paper between the TrackWiz top-rated Califragilistic and the morning-line favorite Aye Direct — but the model splits them clearly enough to make the top pick a genuine value.

win5CalifragilisticML 3/1

Califragilistic leads this allowance field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 and a career win rate of 25% — the highest among all horses in this race and a number that speaks to consistent closing ability. Trainer J. Michael Baird sends out Deshawn L. Parker, a jockey with experience navigating five-furlong sprints from inside posts. Offered at 3/1 morning line, there's legitimate value here given the model's top score and elite win conversion rate. This is a horse that wins races, and the data says this is a spot she can do it again.

place1Aye DirectML 2/1

Aye Direct is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 under Luis Alberto Batista for trainer Michael E. Jones, Jr., earning that respect with a 67.05 TrackWiz rating. The five-furlong distance suits a front-runner profile, and while a 5% career win rate is low for a public choice, it may reflect a difficult path through the conditions rather than a lack of talent. As a place play behind Califragilistic, Aye Direct makes sense — the two figures to run 1-2 in this short sprint.

show3Baby DogML 6/1

Baby Dog slots in third in the TrackWiz ratings at 64.57 with Luis Negron taking the mount for trainer Eddie Clouston. A 5% career win rate mirrors Aye Direct's modest conversion, but an average speed of 52 keeps Baby Dog competitive in a five-furlong sprint where every fraction counts. At 6/1 morning line, Baby Dog is a smart trifecta inclusion — the price is right and the rating says there's a real horse underneath the long odds.

Race 8

1:55 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An 11-horse claiming field at six furlongs that's tighter than most — four horses cluster between 73 and 77 in the TrackWiz ratings, making this a genuine puzzle with a juicy place value hiding at double-digit odds.

win2Poppy's PrideML 3/1

Poppy's Pride leads the competitive cluster with a 76.55 TrackWiz rating and a 19% career win rate — a solid conversion mark in a field where the top four horses are bunched closely together. Trainer Robert S. Scallan sends Maikol Vilchez to ride at 3/1 morning line, and an average speed figure of 53 is right in the mix for this six-furlong dirt sprint. With the pace scenario likely to be contested in a field this size, Poppy's Pride's profile as a tactical runner with a high rating and solid win rate gives her a clear edge at a fair price.

place1John's RockML 12/1

John's Rock is the big-value play of the card at 12/1 morning line, yet he sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 73.96 — barely a point behind the top pick. Trainer Eddie Clouston puts Deshawn L. Parker aboard, and a 24% career win rate is legitimately impressive, ranking among the highest conversion numbers of any horse in today's entire program. A horse with 24% lifetime wins going off at 12/1 deserves serious attention in the place and exacta pools. This is the kind of overlay that separates sharp bettors from casual ones.

show4Self TaughtML 9/1

Self Taught brings a 73.55 TrackWiz rating into a spot where three horses are separated by less than half a point at the top of the model. Trainer Jami C. Poole sends out Elijah Greenidge at 9/1 morning line, and a 20% career win rate adds credibility to the show play. The average speed of 51 is a tick below the leaders, but in a contentious 11-horse sprint where pace can fall apart, Self Taught's closing profile at a double-digit price makes him a smart exotic inclusion.

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Tonight at Mountaineer is a sharp, well-rounded eight-race card with genuine value in the early turf races and a premium allowance spot that could produce a surprise. Our top free plays are My Two Aunt Joans (R1, 9/1 value), Kayleigh's Kitten (R2, 3/1), and Cascabel (R3, 2/1). Full ratings, pace projections, and exotic strategies for Races 4–8 are waiting for subscribers — see you in the winner's circle.

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